21世经济报道记者 叶麦穗 白银成为今年"领涨先锋"，年内累计涨幅逼近120%，特别是从下半年开始呈现加速上涨态势。 截至12月11日16：20，现货白银价格突破62美元/盎司，盘中最高至62.884美元/盎司，再度刷新历史新高。与此同时，COMEX白银盘中突破63 美元/盎司，一度摸高63.25美元/盎司；上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格最高涨至14655元/千克，涨幅超过5%，上述两个品种价格也刷新历 史新高。至此，白银也成为今年顶流投资品之一。 （资料图） 年度涨幅近120% 最新消息显示，美联储决定将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%—3.75%区间，为年内连续第三次降息，年内累计已下调75基点。美联储主席鲍 威尔在会后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储将 "观望" 后再采取进一步行动，但基本排除加息可能。 在全球库存下降、美联储降息，以及白银被列入美国关键矿产名单等因素影响下，白银价格持续受到提振。 白银在今年上半年表现平淡，进入下半年后便火力全开，涨势陡然加快。自9月1日现货白银突破40美元/盎司后，其价格便势不可挡，仅一个 多月时间，于10月9日突破50美元/盎司，累计涨幅超过20%。此后，虽有阶段性调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has seen a significant surge recently, with silver particularly standing out, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve easing, declining real interest rates, and a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the silver market [2][3]. Price Movements - On November 28, spot silver surged over 6%, breaking the $56 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high of $56.78 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 90% [2][3]. - The Shanghai silver night market also performed strongly, rising over 5% to exceed 13,000 yuan, while spot gold returned to $4,200 per ounce [2][3]. Macroeconomic Factors - The core catalyst for the recent rise in silver prices is the repricing of interest rates and policy expectations, with the Federal Reserve initiating a new easing cycle since September, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00% [3][4]. - Market expectations for a potential rate cut in December have increased to 85%, influenced by recent statements from key Federal Reserve officials and weak economic data [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market has faced a structural supply-demand gap for five consecutive years, with the Silver Institute predicting a supply of approximately 813 million ounces in 2025, remaining roughly flat year-on-year [5]. - Global demand is expected to decline by about 4% to 1.12 billion ounces, with industrial demand decreasing by approximately 2% [5]. Future Outlook - Despite a decline in demand, the supply gap is projected to persist, with an expected structural supply deficit of about 95 million ounces in 2025 [5]. - Institutions forecast a continued structural bull market for silver, with UBS raising its price forecast by $5-$8 per ounce, anticipating silver to trade at $60 per ounce by 2026 [7]. - The demand for silver in sectors like photovoltaics, data centers, and electric vehicles is expected to expand, despite a decrease in per-unit silver consumption [7].

路透分析师指出，更令人信服的看涨白银的理由是，工业需求不断增加，而提高开采产量的空间有限。 根据LSEG的数据，2024年白银工业需求从前一年的6.44亿盎司上升至6.891亿盎司。其中，2.437亿盎司 用于太阳能电池板，高于前一年的1.918亿盎司，比2020年的9440万盎司增长了158%。2024年，全球太 阳能新增装机容量约为600吉瓦，预计到2030年将增至近1000吉瓦。国际能源署（IEA）预计，从2024 年到2030年，新增太阳能装机容量将达到4000吉瓦。这表明，到2030年，仅太阳能一项就将推动白银需 求每年增加近1.5亿盎司，即在2024年11.69亿盎司的实物需求基础上再增加13%。尽管珠宝等白银需求 的其他来源可能会受到价格上涨的挤压，但白银市场很可能难以满足需求。根据LSEG的计算，2024年 的市场缺口为5.014亿盎司，远高于2023年的1940万盎司。 ...