转自：新华财经 国贸期货：贵金属牛市逻辑仍旧坚固 建议以逢低多配为主 恒泰期货：地缘局势、宽松预期和弱美元提振贵金属 广发期货：警惕黄金大涨之后多头集中止盈 法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）：黄金将继续在全球外汇储备中发挥重要作用 华侨银行（OCBC）：金价上行风险正在重建 【机构观点分析】 国贸期货研报指出，短期市场或仍需继续消化特朗普新关税政策以及美伊紧张局势的持续发酵带来的不 确定性，贵金属价格有望维持偏强运行，直至局势出现新的进展或美国对伊朗的军事行动落地。中长期 来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑仍旧坚固，建议投资者以逢低多配为主。黄金将继续凭借货币与避险属 性，在美国债务扩张持续削弱美元信用、地缘政治局势复杂及流动性宽松延续等多重因素共振下，全球 央行／机构／居民的配置需求有望延续，驱动价格重心继续上移。 恒泰期货25日早盘观点认为，中东地区局势持续紧张，美军在相关区域军事部署加剧了市场对潜在冲突 的担忧，弹性避险需求增强了黄金的战略配置价值。同时，市场对美联储降息预期持续发酵，"宽松预 期+弱美元"修复通道延续，提振了以美元计价的贵金属价格。节后内盘贵金属价格或呈现跟随行情， 高波动率背景 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 值得关注的是，国内黄金消费热度同样高涨。春节期间，国内多家品牌足金饰品报价已升至1500元/克 上方，多地金店出现排队抢购现象。据上观新闻，老铺黄金部分门店不到上午9点便已无号可取，有消 费者反馈排队时长超过8小时。婚嫁刚需是主要推动力之一——结婚五金起步价已迈入10万元大关。此 外，以旧换新业务同比增长超50%，成为拉动黄金消费增长的重要力量。 回顾近期贵金属走势，1月底曾因美联储主席提名等事件出现剧烈波动。东方证券在2月4日研报中指 出："我们认为在美国长期债务问题未得到根本解决前，贵金属长期牛市行情并未终结。"联储证券在2 月3日研报中也表示："金价中长期走强的基础依然坚实，待完成情绪消化后，可重新迎来配置机 遇。"华源证券2月2日研报则认为："保护主义+大国博弈背景下，央行增储将对金价形成强有力底部支 撑，金价上行动能充足。" 2月23日，现货黄金重回5200美元/盎司上方，日内上涨1.92%。 据央视财经，当地时间23日，特朗普政府新一轮关税政策持续发酵，叠加美国此前公布的经济数据引发 对经济 ...

Group 1 - The end of the precious metals bull market typically requires a significant narrative logic reversal, but the long-term trends supporting gold, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, de-globalization, global de-dollarization, and central bank gold purchases, remain intact [1] - Historical data indicates that after reaching a peak, gold prices often experience a rapid decline, followed by substantial gains, suggesting that current gold prices may have established a mid-term low [1] - The long-term trend for gold remains strong, driven by challenges to the dollar credit system due to excessive money supply and fiscal deficit monetization, alongside increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] Group 2 - The ongoing trend of global de-dollarization positions gold as a potential new pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [1] - The combination of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, increasing overseas uncertainties, and the global de-dollarization trend continues to support gold prices [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider investment opportunities in gold ETFs, such as the Cathay Gold ETF (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase followed by a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 4131.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.08%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index decreased by 0.79% [1][17] - The total market turnover was below 2 trillion, a decrease of over 100 billion compared to the previous trading day, indicating a weak risk appetite with over 3200 stocks declining [1][17] - In terms of sector performance, gold, non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal sectors led the gains, while media, artificial intelligence, and telecommunications sectors saw corrections [1][17] Gold Market Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the U.S. is in the "fifth stage" of a major cycle characterized by extreme polarization and debt imbalance, suggesting a potential for conflict and disorder [2][17] - Dalio emphasized gold as the only "non-debt" asset amidst current debt and political turmoil, recommending that individuals allocate 5% to 15% of their portfolios to gold [2][17] - Historical data indicates that after significant price drops, gold typically rebounds, and recent market movements suggest a potential mid-term low has been established [2][18] ETF Performance - The Gold ETF Guotai (518800) closed at 10.634, with a turnover of 431 billion and a slight increase of 0.82% [4][19] - The Mining ETF (561330) rose by 2.93%, while the Gold Stock ETF (517400) increased by 2.62%, indicating strong performance in the commodity sector [5][22] - The coal sector showed strength following news of potential government support for coal purchases, suggesting a positive outlook for coal investments [6][22] Game and Entertainment Sector - The gaming sector is highlighted for its favorable valuation and upcoming product launches, with expectations for the domestic gaming market to exceed 350 billion yuan in sales by 2025, marking a 7.68% year-on-year increase [8][24] - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to catalyze growth in the gaming industry, with numerous new game releases planned for early 2026 [8][24] - The Game ETF (516010) is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on the seasonal demand and product launches in the gaming sector [8][24] Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) rising by 0.87% over the past 20 days, driven by unexpected bank deposits and strong demand [10][25] - The central bank's recent monetary policy report emphasizes the importance of monetary-fiscal coordination, suggesting a supportive environment for government bond issuance [12][26] - Investors are advised to consider government bond ETFs for stable returns, especially in the context of upcoming holiday trading strategies [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surpassed the $5000 per ounce mark, reaching as high as $5040 per ounce, driven by an increase in China's gold reserves and positive market sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Market Trends - As of the end of January 2026, China's gold reserves stood at 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from December 2025 [1]. - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves since November 2024, maintaining this trend for 15 consecutive months [1]. - The World Gold Council predicts that the current upward trend in gold prices will remain stable throughout the remainder of 2026 [4]. Group 2: Institutional Predictions and Investment Sentiment - Several financial institutions, including CITIC Securities, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America, have forecasted that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce or higher in 2026 [4]. - Analysts from Galaxy Securities suggest that metal assets may continue to experience volatility, with a focus on the U.S. January CPI data to assess inflation persistence and adjust Federal Reserve policy expectations [5]. - Huatai Securities emphasizes that gold will remain an irreplaceable asset for value preservation, recommending a strategy of buying on dips due to ongoing dollar asset replacement logic and risk premiums [5]. Group 3: ETF Performance and Investment Opportunities - As of February 9, 2026, the Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has risen by 2.81%, with a cumulative increase of 8.93% over the past month [5]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 177 million yuan, totaling 428 million yuan over three days [5]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF serves as a convenient investment tool for investors looking to hedge against rising gold jewelry prices [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. State Department issued a security warning regarding the tense situation in Iran, urging American citizens to leave Iran and prepare for self-evacuation plans [1] - Oriental Securities believes that the long-term bull market for precious metals will not end until the U.S. long-term debt issue is fundamentally resolved, while maintaining a positive medium-term outlook for the industrial metals sector due to potential upward movement in copper prices [1] - The gold-to-copper ratio has reached a historical high of nearly 0.4, indicating that despite short-term volatility, industrial metals like copper may continue to rise due to price ratio effects [1] Group 2 - As of February 6, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 1.20%, with significant gains in stocks such as Hunan Gold (up 10.00%) and Zhongtung High-tech (up 5.90%) [2] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF Penghua (159880) closely tracks the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metals sector [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 49.87% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]

后最观点2】影响因素分析：美国恢复原定于6日举行的美伊谈判、中美两国元首通电话等缓和市场避险需求，叠加美元上行风险增加、美股、比特币等大幅走弱、市场再度 网 #fom 担忧流动仪紧冲击，同时国内即将迎来春节，投机资金进一步撤退、打压市场情绪、贵会属市场遭遇二次抛售。但美国AIP数据不佳、周度申请失业金人数反弹, B（Ys、周五市场还将迎来非农就业报告，美元短期上行速变或有所放缓。同时自银现货隔紧格局不改，上期所延续去库，贵金属最为恐慌的地管阶段或已过去。综上，展 ₪Μ 《星后市，春节前，市场资金情绪或较为谨慎，贵金属价格料逐步进入区间震荡走势，但中长期逻辑尚未改变。中长期来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑仍旧坚固，在美 供参考) 联储年内仍有降息概率、全球地缘不痛定性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续，贵金属价格重心仍 有上行空间,逐步企稳后将带来较好的中长期配置机会。 2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp correction in the precious metals market is viewed as a "violent reset" of high positions rather than the end of a bull market, with strong market support evident as gold and silver quickly rebound from recent lows [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The past three months saw gold surge from $4,000 to $5,500 and silver from $50 to $120, driven by speculative trading. The excessive market positioning, combined with short-term negative factors such as the hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination, led to a concentrated exit of profit-taking and increased margin requirements, amplifying downward price pressure [3][4]. - Despite recording the largest single-day drop since 2013, gold rebounded over 6% on Tuesday, while silver rose approximately 8%, indicating that the previous sell-off was an overreaction and the market is returning to rational pricing [3]. Fundamental Support - The core logic supporting the bullish trend in precious metals remains intact, with global central banks continuing their strategic accumulation since 2022, providing long-term structural support for gold prices [4]. - Silver's industrial demand resilience amid electrification and tight physical market supply are expected to underpin its mid-term price stability. Although ETF outflows indicate a need for short-term sentiment recovery, any pullback is seen as a healthy filtering process as long as the macro environment remains stable [4]. Future Outlook - The volatility in the precious metals market is expected to remain high in the short term, with price movements inversely correlated with the U.S. dollar and interest rate expectations. Future price increases may be more stable and non-linear compared to the previous months' explosive growth [4]. - After the position cleanup, gold and silver are anticipated to rise steadily on a more solid foundation. Investors are advised to focus on central bank purchasing behavior and long-term guidance from real interest rates rather than being distracted by short-term position-driven volatility [4].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 由于内在调整风险充分释放吸引部分抄底资金，美军击落伊朗无人机以及美 伊会晤出现波折，贵金属板块继续从 1 月底暴跌中反弹，2 月 3 日亚盘时段伦敦 黄金回到 5000 美元/盎司而伦敦白银亦逼近 90 美元/盎司。我们判断贵金属中长 期上涨驱动力不变，建议投资者待贵金属下跌动能减弱后继续做多；但近期投资 资金大量涌入贵金属市场并推高价格波动性，建议投资者严格控制仓位以规避短 期波动风险。本周关注欧洲央行和英国央行议息会议、日本众议院选举。 ...

贵金属及有色"王者归来" 沪银大涨超11% 随着全球市场抛售潮消退，商品情绪全面回暖，贵金属及有色金属板块"王者归来"，黄金率先修复，白银也企稳反弹，截至4日下午收盘，沪银主力合约涨 超11%，沪金涨超7%，铂、钯涨超6%，沪锡涨超5%，沪镍、国际铜、沪铜涨超3%。此前特朗普提名沃什为美联储主席，引发政策收紧担忧，叠加获利了 结与去杠杆压力，进一步放大了市场波动，贵金属急转直下。随着恐慌情绪基本宣泄，贵金属市场企稳反弹，由于支撑贵金属尤其是黄金牛市的核心因素并 未发生逆转，逢低买盘依然踊跃。正信期货指出，贵金属在部分抄底资金和伊朗局势的扰动下大幅上攻，尽管美伊双方仍在谈判，但误判和军事冲突的风险 仍旧存在。美国政府在特朗普签署与民主党达成的拨款协议后重启，但停摆导致原定于周五发布的非农就业数据将被推迟，这也使得市场难以观测美国就业 的实际变化，关注即将发布的ADP就业数据对贵金属市场的扰动。在连续两日大幅反弹后，短期内贵金属市场仍有较大的不确定性，建议谨慎操作应对波动 性风险。 沪锡方面，缅甸地震再度引发市场对供应稳定性的担忧，刺激沪锡期货4日早盘大幅冲高，一度涨超7%。当前锡市处于强现实强预期的状态，供应问 ...