【黄金期货行情表现】 11月25日，沪金主力暂报946.50元/克，涨幅达1.48%，今日沪金主力开盘价935.60元/克，截至目前最高 949.78元/克，最低933.38元/克。 SPDR黄金信托基金报告称，截至11月24日，其持仓量增加0.03%，即0.29吨，至1040.86吨。 【宏观消息】 【机构观点】 美联储官员近期释放的货币政策信号对贵金属市场产生重要影响。旧金山联储主席戴利表示支持12月降 息，认为就业市场突然恶化的风险比通胀上升更大，这一鸽派表态增强了市场对美联储即将放松货币政 策的预期。与此同时，美联储理事沃勒指出关税对通胀的影响有限，只是一次性的，这缓解了市场对通 胀压力的担忧。这些言论共同推动了市场对美联储政策转向的预期，为黄金等避险资产提供了支撑。 逻辑：美联储内部支持降息的声音增加，美国经济数据发布推迟，地缘政治风险及央行增持黄金也对金 价形成支撑。数据：国际金价收 4134.63 美元 / 盎司，涨幅 1.72%，金价维持在 4000-4150 美元区间震 荡。观点：中长期贵金属牛市行情延续，若突破阻力金价或涨至 4200 美元上方。 泰国央行计划收紧黄金交易的报告规定，此前黄 ...

白银正在成为今年贵金属市场中最耀眼的资产。作为长期被称为"穷人黄金"的金属，白银不仅价格低 廉，更因其同时具备货币属性与工业需求，被分析师视为极具性价比的投资标的。数据显示，白银年内 价格大涨74%，涨幅在主要贵金属中位居榜首，显著超过黄金、铂金与钯金。 在宏观层面，持续偏高的通胀及市场对法定货币长期价值的疑虑，正驱动更多投资者配置硬资产。在工 业金属与货币金属"双重身份"的支撑下，白银在制造业复苏与避险需求同步上升时，展现出比黄金更强 的价格弹性。Rhind指出，只要这些驱动因素继续存在，白银有望继续领跑贵金属市场，即便中途可能 伴随双位数幅度的高波动。 除了价格优势，白银的工业需求正快速爆发。作为已知最好的可见光反射体、最强电导体之一，以及具 备天然杀菌特性的金属，白银在太阳能、新能源、电子元件、AI硬件及智能手机产业中的需求持续增 长。美国内政部近期更将白银列入国家关键矿物清单，进一步凸显其战略重要性。 与黄金相比，白银距离其经通胀调整后的历史高点仍有巨大上升空间。根据道琼斯市场数据，白银1980 年的实际高点折合今日价格超过209美元/盎司，而目前主力12月期银仅约50.7美元，距离历史高点仍有 76 ...

Report Summary Core View - The long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices is due to the continuous and historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, which is manifested in the decline of its internal and external purchasing power and the weakening of its global mandatory power [3][6][7] Key Points Market Performance - As of November 12, 2025, the spot and futures prices of silver reached new historical highs, with the domestic price standing at 12,500 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver approaching $54 per ounce. Silver outperformed gold, and there are new underlying logics emerging [2] Traditional Gold Analysis Framework Breakdown - Before 2024, gold price discussions mainly revolved around the US dollar and US Treasury yields. However, since 2022, the Fed's interest - rate hikes and rising US inflation have led to a situation where gold prices and US Treasury yields have risen simultaneously, breaking the traditional inverse relationship [2][3] US Dollar's Intrinsic Value Analysis - **Purchasing Power**: The US dollar's internal and external purchasing power has been in an irreversible decline. Domestically, inflation has eroded its internal purchasing power, and externally, the process of de - globalization since 2016 has weakened its external purchasing power, including factors such as resource protectionism in South America and the decline of US influence on energy prices [4][6] - **Compulsory Power**: The US dollar's global compulsory power has been declining since 2018, which is an important background for the loss of its intrinsic value [7] US Dollar Index and Gold - Silver Price Relationship - The US dollar index is a relative indicator and does not reflect the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value. Gold and silver can mark the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, and the long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices has an inherent logical sustainability [6][7]

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent surge in silver prices, with domestic prices reaching 12,500 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver nearing 54 dollars per ounce, indicating a historical high [3] - It suggests that silver is outperforming gold and may be evolving into a "people's monetary metal" in Europe and the US, driven by government actions related to gold [3] - The long-term upward trend in precious metals is attributed to stable driving factors, with a focus on the valuation currency perspective [3][6] Group 2 - Traditional frameworks for analyzing precious metals face challenges, particularly in the context of rising real interest rates since 2022, which have led to price adjustments in gold [6] - The article discusses the impact of liquidity changes on the relationship between gold and US Treasury yields, noting that increased liquidity can lead to simultaneous rises in both gold prices and Treasury yields [6][9] - It emphasizes the historical decline in the intrinsic value of the US dollar, which is reflected in the rising prices of gold and silver [9][11] Group 3 - The article examines the internal and external purchasing power of the US dollar, indicating a long-term decline in both aspects, which contributes to the ongoing loss of the dollar's intrinsic value [10][11] - It points out that the dollar's purchasing power has been affected by various global economic factors, including resource nationalism in South America and geopolitical conflicts [10][11] - The discussion includes the notion that the dollar's status as a global currency is under pressure, leading to a potential shift towards gold and silver as alternative stores of value [12][13]

Macro News - The U.S. Senate has passed a procedural vote on a temporary funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, but a final vote has not yet been scheduled, and the bill still requires approval from the House of Representatives [1] - The House members are expected to return to Washington for voting, marking their first vote since September 19 [1] - There is a possibility that the government shutdown could end before the weekend based on the latest developments [1] Industry Insights - Gold prices increased by 2% to close at 935.98 yuan, while silver rose by 2.85% to 11,719 yuan [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court has raised questions regarding the legality of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty, which, along with a relief in dollar liquidity, has contributed to the rebound in precious metal prices [1] - The potential agreement to end the government shutdown is gradually taking shape, which is believed to limit the downside risk for precious metal prices [1] - The underlying logic for a bull market in precious metals remains solid [1]

Group 1 - Global gold ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive months, with October attracting $8.2 billion, leading to a 6% increase in total assets under management, reaching a record high of $503 billion [1] - The holdings increased by 1% month-on-month to 3,893 tons, indicating a growing interest in gold as an investment [1] - The average daily trading volume in the gold market surged to $561 billion in October, marking a historical high with a 45% month-on-month increase [1] Group 2 - Central banks globally purchased a net total of 39 tons of gold in September, the highest monthly level of the year, with Brazil leading at 15 tons [1] - The total net gold purchases by central banks for the year have reached 200 tons, reflecting a trend of increasing gold accumulation [1] - The Shanghai gold price rose by 0.72%, closing at 921.26 yuan per gram [1] Group 3 - The U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges due to government shutdowns and trade tensions, contributing to increased uncertainty in short-term policies [3] - Geopolitical risks and financial institution failures are prompting more central banks to increase their gold holdings, suggesting a potential long-term bullish trend for precious metals similar to the 1970s [3] - Short-term fluctuations in international gold prices are expected, with a potential buying opportunity if prices drop below $3,900 [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of liquid cooling modules for AI data centers, emphasizing the company's strategic positioning in heat exchange and circuit isolation components, along with strong partnerships with Taiwanese OEM manufacturers [1] - A precious metals company has reported better-than-expected performance in Q3, with a gold mine expected to reach full production by 2026, benefiting from a bullish market for precious metals [1] Group 1 - The company involved in AI data center liquid cooling equipment is experiencing fast growth in liquid cooling module shipments [1] - The company has established deep ties with Taiwanese OEM manufacturers, enhancing its market position [1] - The precious metals company is set to benefit from favorable market conditions, with its new gold mine projected to start full production in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shengda Resources (000603) reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 1.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 323 million yuan, up 61.97% year-on-year, driven by stable mining production, successful technological upgrades, and rising silver prices [1] Company Performance - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit, with a non-GAAP net profit of 331 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 71.51% [1] - The growth was supported by stable production from mines, effective technological improvements, and a steady rise in silver prices [1] Resource and Production Capacity - Shengda Resources has a substantial silver resource reserve of approximately 12,000 tons and controls seven mining resources, positioning it as a leader in the domestic industry [2] - The company’s silver production capacity is accelerating, with a 34.97% year-on-year increase in silver metal production in the first half of 2025 due to the implementation of core mining technological upgrades [2] - The Jinshan Mining project, one of the largest independent silver mines in China, has completed its technological upgrades, enhancing recovery rates and reducing costs, contributing to profit optimization [2] Expansion into Gold - The company is strategically expanding into gold through the acquisition of the Caiyuzi Copper-Gold Mine, which is expected to become a new growth driver for its gold business [4] - The Caiyuzi Copper-Gold Mine has a production capacity of 396,000 tons per year and contains approximately 17 tons of gold resources, with significant potential for further exploration and resource expansion [5] Industry Trends - The precious metals market is experiencing a bullish trend, driven by multiple factors including supply-demand dynamics, market risk aversion, and macroeconomic policies [6] - Analysts predict that precious metals will continue to rise, with concerns over "stagflation" in the U.S. economy and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contributing to this outlook [7] Future Outlook - Market sentiment towards Shengda Resources remains optimistic, with several brokerages forecasting significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by high precious metal prices and the contribution from the Caiyuzi Copper-Gold Mine [7]

Fundamental Analysis - The current price of spot silver (XAG/USD) is $48.56 per ounce, with a significant physical shortage in the silver market highlighting overall supply-demand tension in precious metals. COMEX warehouse silver inventories have decreased by 29 million ounces over the past two weeks, while the London market faces a shortfall of 100-150 million ounces, potentially impacting gold prices through arbitrage mechanisms, reinforcing a structural bull market [1][3] - The "physical squeeze" in the silver market, although not directly affecting gold, indicates pressure on the global precious metals delivery system. The upcoming U.S. Section 232 review of silver could classify it as a critical mineral, potentially leading to tariffs or export restrictions, which may indirectly influence gold pricing [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions and the potential U.S. government shutdown could increase uncertainty in the market. The current rebound in gold prices signifies the continuation of a bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and institutional buying [4][5] Market Trends - The recent geopolitical developments, including sanctions against Russian oil companies, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This has led to a rapid recovery in gold prices after a significant drop, indicating that the demand is not merely speculative but driven by central banks diversifying their dollar holdings [4][5] - The European Central Bank has reported that gold now constitutes over 20% of its reserves, marking a structural shift in gold's role from a mere safe-haven asset to a strategic reserve asset [5] Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently experiencing a price consolidation phase, with support around $46.90 and potential long positions near $47.50, targeting a profit range of $51.00 to $52.00 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices first soared and then declined, but still had significant weekly gains. Factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, political turmoil in Europe and Japan, and loan fraud issues in U.S. regional banks increased market concerns about potential risks in the U.S. credit market, boosting the demand for safe - havens and driving up precious metal prices. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut also contributed to the price increase. However, the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions led to a rapid decline in market risk aversion and a sharp drop in precious metal prices [3]. - In the short term, due to the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions, precious metal prices may need adjustment. But considering the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the expected Fed rate cut in October, prices are expected to move in a volatile range. For silver, the tight physical supply in London needs attention. If the shortage is alleviated, silver prices may face further adjustment risks. In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid, supported by factors such as the continuous rise of the U.S. federal government debt, expected Fed rate cuts, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by central banks [3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips after the adjustment in the long term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE:行情及基本面指标跟踪 - **Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio**: The report presents the price trends of gold and silver through charts, including London spot gold, Shanghai gold futures, London spot silver, and Shanghai silver futures. The SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios are also shown [5][6][7][8]. - **ETFs and CFTC Positions**: Charts display the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, as well as the holdings of gold SPDR - ETF and silver SLV - ETF. The data shows changes in market sentiment and investment trends [26][27][28][30][31]. - **Inventory Data**: Information on the inventories of gold and silver in SHFE, COMEX, SGE, and LBMA is presented, which can reflect the supply and demand situation in the market [32][33][35][37]. 3.2 PART TWO:主要宏观指标跟踪 - **Major Macroeconomic Indicators**: The report tracks indicators such as the U.S. GDP growth rate, manufacturing and service PMI, consumer confidence index, employment data, inflation data, and central bank gold - buying. These indicators can help analyze the macro - economic environment and its impact on precious metal prices [55][56][57][62][68][82]. - **U.S. Economic Indicators**: The U.S. GDP has strong growth, but the manufacturing and service PMIs have declined. Employment has cooled significantly, inflation shows signs of rising, and consumer confidence has dropped [55][56][57][62][68]. - **Eurozone Economic Indicators**: The Eurozone GDP has bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI has increased, while the service PMI has declined. Inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK are also presented [77][78][81]. - **Central Bank Gold - Buying**: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. Global central banks continue to be net buyers of gold, which provides support for the upward movement of the gold price [83][87].