点击蓝字，关注我们 中信建投证券发布研究报告称，标普500在2月中旬触顶后， 先后经历3月上旬(DeepSeek冲击)和4月上 旬(关税冲击)两波大跌 。此后，美股开启修复进程，在贸易缓和、降息预期、经济韧性等利多催化 下， 于本周再创历史新高 。历史经验看，历次新高后，美股短期下跌概率并不会增加，但季节性、 经济、盈利估值等维度看， 8月前后仍不排除回撤，届时或提供更好的上车窗口。 中信建投主要观点如下： 一、美股创阶段性创下新高后，短期调整风险是否大幅增加?并不是，甚至恰恰相反 历史经验显示：新高后，美股的上涨空间确实被压制，但下跌风险影响不大，大跌概率反倒下降。 (1) 新高后1-3个月，上涨空间和大涨概率，均较其余时期明显下降，尤其在1个月内。 (2) 新高后1-3个月，下跌幅度较其余时期差异不大，但大跌5%以上的概率更低，开始出现5%以上回 撤的时点也更晚。 (3) 大跌20%以上+再创新高后，平均意义上，更可能出现短期休整，但实际案例的方差较大，继续大 涨和大跌的情况均存在。 整体看，并不用单纯因为新高，就对美股短期的走势产生较大担忧， 美股长期向上的趋势下，新高 已经逐步常态化 ; 因此，美股后 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a favorable outlook for investment in this area [2]. Core Insights - The capital market is expected to stabilize and improve, driven by the implementation of the new "National Nine Articles" policy framework, which will enhance the entry of medium to long-term funds into the market. This is anticipated to positively impact the fundamentals and valuation recovery of the brokerage sector [1]. - The report highlights that the brokerage sector's profitability is likely to see a significant year-on-year growth of 44% in Q1 2025, supported by increased trading activity, with the average daily trading volume reaching 16,764 billion yuan, a 77.6% increase year-on-year [1]. - The ongoing supply-side reforms in the industry aim to build first-class investment banks and enhance the competitiveness of brokerages. Mergers and acquisitions are being pursued to improve operational efficiency and market leadership [2]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The brokerage sector is experiencing a recovery in trading activity, with a notable increase in daily trading volumes, which is expected to support profitability growth [1]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in the capital market will lead to better-than-expected improvements in the fundamentals of brokerages [1]. Industry Reforms - Supply-side reforms are accelerating, focusing on creating top-tier investment banks and enhancing the strength of the brokerage industry. This includes several ongoing merger cases [2]. - The current valuation of the brokerage sector is at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.44, indicating limited downside and potential for upward valuation adjustments [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in the brokerage sector, emphasizing the potential for exceeding expectations in fundamental improvements and the benefits from ongoing supply-side reforms. Specific stock picks include Huatai Securities and GF Securities, with additional focus on Northeast Securities, Guolian Minsheng, and Tianfeng Securities [2].