随着美联储主席鲍威尔上周五在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派演讲，引发了全球金融市场的积极反 响，眼下人们对美联储9月降息的预期无疑正空前高涨。 而若仔细算算日子，如果美联储真的在9月降息，那么距离其2024年12月的上次降息，其实将正好过去 九个月——这已经是一段不算短的政策空窗期了。那么，在历史上，当美联储暂停许久后重启降息，美 股通常会怎么走呢？ Carson Group首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick上周末在X平台发布的一张图，就对此做了一番行情数据汇 总： | | | | | S&P 500 Index Returns | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Date of Next Cut | Months Between Cuts | Next Month | Next 3 Months | Next 6 Months | Next Year | | 9/21/1970 | 54 | 2.1% | 10.1% | 22.8% | 21.7% | | 6261/61/9 | 5.9 | 0.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 14.2% | | ...

Group 1 - The adjustment of the U.S. non-farm payroll data has significantly impacted market expectations, indicating a shift in economic outlook [10] - Understanding the future trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial, with discussions on whether a recession can be avoided [10] - Following a substantial correction in the U.S. stock market, there are considerations on whether this presents a good buying opportunity [10] Group 2 - Future trends in the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and gold prices are essential for investment strategies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that after reaching a new high, the short-term adjustment risk for the US stock market is not significantly increased, and historical data suggests that the likelihood of a major decline decreases following new highs [2]. Group 1: Market Performance Analysis - Historical experience shows that after reaching a new high, the upward space and probability of significant gains decrease, especially within the first month [2]. - The probability of a decline exceeding 5% is lower after a new high, and the onset of such declines occurs later compared to other periods [2]. - Major declines of 20% or more after a new high tend to lead to short-term consolidations, but the variance in actual outcomes is significant, with both continued gains and declines possible [2]. - At the time of new highs, the net long positions in derivatives are not necessarily at extreme high levels, indicating that the current net long positions are relatively low [2]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Economic Factors - Historically, the US stock market tends to experience adjustments in Q3, with various uncertainties such as mid-year earnings, economic weakness, and fiscal monetary factors contributing to potential declines [3]. - Potential catalysts for market threats this summer include weak economic data impacting earnings expectations, with forward valuations only 1.9% away from early-year highs [3]. - The market's current immunity to fiscal debt issues may reverse if deficits rise or inflation increases in Q3, altering market narratives [3]. - External market volatility, such as issues with UK pensions, yen carry trades, and dollar depreciation, could also pose risks [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Outlook - The report suggests an N-shaped market trajectory, indicating limited short-term value for investments, with potential adjustments in Q3 presenting better entry opportunities [4]. - Earnings downgrades are expected to be a major concern in the second half of the year, coinciding with seasonal declines and the impact of tariffs, tax cuts, and earnings season [5]. - The optimal time for re-entering the US stock market may be after uncertainties clear up in the summer, with earnings expectations gradually shifting from 2025 to 2026 [5].

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海6月27日电（葛佳明） 2025年以来，美股市场经历了"深V"反转，标普500指数较年内高位 一度回调超17%，而纳斯达克指数则一度较高点下跌超22%。但随着美国政策不确定性逐步减少，以及 市场预期美联储货币政策或转向宽松，风险偏好逐步回升，美股自4月中旬以来持续反弹，截至6月26日 收盘，标普500指数报6141.02点，较4月9日低点涨幅达到24%；纳指报20167.91点，较低点涨超32%， 均接近历史高位。 业内人士普遍认为，本轮美股反弹主要由散户以及零售投资者推动，市场更多受流动性以及情绪影响， 对于下半年美股来说，市场波动性仍难以降低，关税谈判进展依然具有不确定性，美国财政法案也尚未 敲定，但预计最为悲观的时点或已过去，后续美股交易主线将逐步回归基本面。 美股剧烈波动背后 2025年上半年，美股剧烈波动背后的核心因素可归纳为科技股走势、美国财政和外贸双赤字持续恶化以 及关税政策反复对经济的冲击三条主线。无论是衡量美股波动率的VIX指数还是反映美债波动性的 MOVE指数均出现大幅攀升。 在科技层面，美股走势与美国在全球科技行业的地位密切相关。中信建投宏观首席分析师周君芝表 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the **U.S. economy** and its inflation dynamics, particularly focusing on the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** and the impact of tariffs and trade relations with China. Key Points and Arguments 1. **CPI Trends**: In May, the core goods CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of -0.04%, indicating reduced upward pressure on prices, potentially due to prior inventory replenishment and recent easing of tariffs [1][4] 2. **Price Performance**: Prices for clothing and communication goods were notably weak, while wholesale prices continued to rise sharply, suggesting that wholesalers absorbed some tariff costs [4][5] 3. **Inflation in China-Dependent Products**: Prices for entertainment products, sports goods, and toys, which are heavily reliant on China, continued to rise, with toys showing a month-on-month inflation rate of 1.35% [6] 4. **Core Services and Rent**: Rent growth has slowed, but forward-looking indicators suggest limited downward space for future rent increases, indicating resilience in core service inflation [7] 5. **Trade War Implications**: The escalation of the trade war could lead to increased goods prices, potentially harming consumer purchasing power in services and discretionary spending [7] 6. **Market Reactions**: Current CPI data is stable, with no further escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, leading to a slight increase in interest rate cut expectations and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [8] 7. **Future Inflation Risks**: Energy prices have been a significant drag on inflation, with global manufacturing PMI showing weakness and OPEC+ discussions on production cuts affecting oil prices [3] 8. **Consumer Spending Concerns**: There are risks of weakened demand in consumer services related to travel and leisure, as prices in these sectors have been soft over the past two months [7] Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Impact on Prices**: The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is expected to take about 2 to 4 months, indicating a lag in the impact of tariffs on retail prices [5] - **Economic Resilience**: Despite the potential for rate cuts, the U.S. economy shows resilience, and the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and tax cuts continues to pose risks for interest rate volatility [2][8] - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields will become clearer once the effects of tariffs and tax cuts are fully absorbed by the economy [2][8]

Market Overview - After experiencing policy fluctuations, market risk appetite has rebounded, with US stocks showing a strong recovery over the past month, bringing the S&P 500 index close to historical highs [1] - As of June 11, the S&P 500 index closed at 6022.24 points, reflecting an 18% rebound from early April, while the Nasdaq Composite index saw a 26% increase during the same period [1] Analyst Predictions - Several Wall Street investment banks have expressed optimistic expectations for the US stock market, with Goldman Sachs projecting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025, raising its target to 6500 points [4] - Citigroup has also raised its target for the S&P 500 index to 6300 points, anticipating a further 5% increase [4] - Analysts indicate that after the recent rise, valuations have reached historical highs, leading some investors to exit the market, suggesting limited upward potential for US stocks moving forward [4] Economic Factors - The Chief Investment Officer of Wells Fargo, Darrell Cronk, believes that the US stock market will experience more dramatic volatility this year compared to the previous two years, with significant fluctuations expected in the second half of 2025 [5] - Despite the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, core inflation is showing signs of recovery, and there are risks of inflation rising due to potential tariff costs being passed on to consumers [5] - The impact of the Trump tax cuts may also play a significant role in the US stock market, presenting both opportunities and risks for economic growth and valuations [5] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 has risen to 27.82, indicating that US stocks are still relatively high in terms of valuation [6] - The expectation for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growth is 7% for the second half of 2025 and 14% for 2026, although some analysts believe these projections may be overly optimistic given the potential impact of tariff policies [5][6] Asset Allocation Trends - There is a noticeable shift in global investment strategies from "dollar asset allocation" to "non-dollar asset reallocation," emphasizing the importance of diversified asset allocation [8] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is prompting countries to adjust their balance sheets, which may increase demand for Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like consumption, smart devices, robotics, and automation [8] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience significant development opportunities, with relative valuations likely to rise and expansion opportunities on the horizon [9] - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic P/E ratio is currently at 10.37, while the Hang Seng Tech Index stands at 19.96, indicating that both indices have room for valuation recovery compared to major overseas indices [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market exhibited a V-shaped recovery in early trading, with the S&P 500 index narrowing its decline to less than 0.2% [1] - The Nasdaq index turned positive, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline was reduced to less than 200 points at one point [1] - The semiconductor index showed a gain of 0.8% [1] Group 2 - The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar experienced an increase of 1.0%, reaching a value of 0.6496 [1]

美股走势分化，道指跌幅达1%，标普500指数现跌0.56%，纳指跌幅收窄至0.24%。 ...

作 者丨李依农 杨雨莱 孙迟悦 编 辑丨和佳 江佩佩 深夜，金价再度狂飙！ | | | | COMEXT .. | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | 3295.6 | | 昨结 | | 3284.6 | 1 - 2 | | 3293.0 | | +11.0 | +0.33% | 总手 | | 1.01万 | 现手 | | 1 | | 最高价 | 3307.9 | 寺 එ | | 0 | | | 4438.0 | | 最低价 | 3291.9 | 仓 | | -18.1万 | | | 5625.0 | | 分时 | הת | | 信く | | EK | | | | 3328.3 | | | | | | 18:16 | 3.15% | | 3302.7 | | | | | | | 2.36% | | 3226.6 | | | | | | | 0.00% | | 3124 | | | | | | | -3.15% | | 05-15 | 05-16 | | 05-19 | | 05 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for a trade agreement between China and the United States, suggesting that the stock market may provide signals regarding this outcome [1] - It highlights the importance of monitoring market trends, particularly in gold, as investors seek to position themselves based on the evolving trade situation [1]