华尔街主流机构对美国股市长期超额回报的信心出现动摇，瑞银将美股评级下调至中性。 瑞银全球股票策略主管Andrew Garthwaite率领的策略团队于27日周五发布报告，将美股在100%股票投 资组合中的配置评级下调至"基准"，即中性配置，同时维持对新兴市场股票的超配。 Garthwaite在报告中指出，"按美元计，美国市场相对于全球市场的回撤幅度为近十五年来之最"，即便 在人工智能（AI）兴起、美国经济增长超预期以及特朗普政府撤回部分关税的背景下，这一局面也未 能扭转。 此次评级下调对市场的直接含义在于：瑞银认为，美股跑输全球市场的风险已高于跑赢的可能性。从资 金流向看，瑞银策略师表示，与北美客户的沟通表明"资金将明显转向全球市场"，ETF资金流动数据印 证了这一趋势——近期已有45%的资金流向美国以外地区的股市。 美元走软成核心担忧，外部市场加速吸金 美元贬值是瑞银此次下调评级的核心逻辑之一。瑞银预测欧元兑美元汇率将于一季度末升至1.22，并明 确指出美元面临"不对称的结构性下行风险"。 历史数据显示，当美元贸易加权指数下跌10%时，未对冲口径下美股相对全球市场的表现将落后约 4%。 值得关注的是，美元走 ...

瑞银周五表示，已将美股的建议配比降至中性，因为随着全球其他地区经济增长加速，美国股市可能面 临表现落后的风险。 该行策略师Andrew Garthwaite和Marc el Koussa在报告中指出，作此建议的理由包括美国企业盈利对全 球增长的敏感度相对较低、估值偏高、资金正向美国以外地区分散配置以及美元下行风险等。 尽管如此，由于美国市场规模庞大，即使按指标指数的配比计算，其权重仍相当可观——美股在MSCI 全球股指中的占比超过70%。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 他们表示："美国的经营杠杆在主要地区中最低，因此从历史上看，当全球增长加速至超过 3.5% 时， 美国往往表现不佳。" 瑞银预计2026年全球GDP增速将达3.4%。 随着大型科技股回报下滑，以及美国国内政策制定的混乱让投资者寻找替代选项，美国投资者正持续从 美国股市撤资。 美元疲软（去年创下2017年以来最差年度表现）成为另一大推动因素。 前述策略师表示："从我们在北美的营销情况来看，资金将走向全球已是不争的事实。" "ETF资金流向显示多元化配置正在发生。" 瑞银周五表示，已将美股的建议配比 ...

日前 我市印发了 全周期上市服务体系 加快打造资本市场高质量"徐州板块" 具体内容 赶快和大徐一起来看看 发展计划 到2030年上市公司县域全覆盖 《徐州市持续推动企业上市高质量发展 "鹏程计划"行动方案（2026—2030年）》 （以下简称"新'鹏程计划'"） 全面构建全链条 鼓励上市公司运用股份、现金、可转债等工具开展产业链并购，提升产业集中度。支持链主企业设立CVC基金，金融机构创新并购贷款、投贷联动等产 品。 《方案》立足我市产业转型升级实际，抢抓资本市场改革机遇，明确未来五年发展方向： • 上市公司实现县域全覆盖，直接融资规模超1000亿元； • 上市公司总市值达到5000亿元，力争培育2家千亿市值、10家百亿市值企业； • 并购重组金额达1000亿元，落地一批标志性产业整合案例； • 动态保持股改企业不少于50家、重点目标企业不少于20家、辅导及IPO申报企业不少于10家。 01 加快优质企业上市培育 突出科技创新型企业招引培育，建立市县联动、部门协同、机构参与的立体化培育体系，动态更新"目标层、培育层、储备层"三级后备梯队，为企业"小 升规、规改股、股上市"提供全流程服务。 强化"股贷债保担"多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market experienced a decline, with large-cap stocks falling less than small-cap stocks, and both value and growth stocks generally decreased. The A-share market saw a strong start in January, with the CSI All Share Index rising by 5.75% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 6.85% [2][3]. Market Performance - The A-share market had a strong opening in January, reaching a peak of 4.x stars before settling at 3.x stars. The CSI All Share Index rose by 5.75% in January, while the Hang Seng Index outperformed with a 6.85% increase [2][3]. - Active selection and index enhancement strategies also saw significant gains in January, with active selection rising by 8.5%, marking one of the strongest monthly performances in recent years [2][3]. - The market's rapid rise from late December to January is not typical, as significant increases in the A-share market usually occur in short bursts [2][4]. Valuation Insights - The valuation of the Hong Kong small-cap index reached a high level before correcting back to a normal range. The current star rating for the Hong Kong market is also at 3.x stars [10][13]. - The article provides a detailed valuation table for various indices, including the H-share Index and the Hang Seng Index, highlighting their respective price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields [10][21]. Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes that opportunities arise during market declines, while risks are associated with market increases. The active selection strategy has paused new subscriptions after reaching 3.x stars, allowing existing investors to hold their positions without new inflows [2][4]. - The article also mentions the importance of understanding market cycles, noting that significant returns in bull markets often come from a small percentage of time when the market experiences rapid increases [6][9].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体微涨，波动不大，截止到收盘，还在3.8星。 港股也整体上涨。 今天港股涨幅比A股还高。 沪深300、中证500等大中盘股上涨。 中证500今天上涨后，也达到了高估。 价值风格大幅上涨。 现金流指数、红利类指数大幅上涨。 这两周价值风格品种也开始补涨了。 低估品种总会有上涨的阶段～ 前两周咱们主动优选做了调仓，止盈了部分高估的成长风格，加仓了价值风格。 刚好匹配最近的市场风格。 今天几个组合整体上涨，主动、指数、 月薪宝 、 365 等都创下历史新高。 恒生指数上涨超2%。 恒生红利低波、港股科技等都上涨明显。 港股中很多也属于人民币类资产，只不过欧美投资者占比高一些。 一般老外看好人民币资产，考虑港股会多一些。 1. 去年螺丝钉也介绍过，这轮牛市的风格，跟2013-2017年比较相似。 （1）2013年，A股上市公司盈利下滑，A股整体也在5点几星的熊市。 （2）2014年下半年，开始了各种刺激政策。人民币利率也大幅下降。 在利率大幅下降的背景下，市场开始大幅上涨。 第一波领涨的品种是证券。 （3）2015年上半年，市场风格切换。第二波领涨的品种，变成了小盘、 ...

1月27日,福建省十四届人大四次会议开幕,省长赵龙在政府工作报告中指出,2025年福建全省地区生产总 值突破6万亿元,"十四五"时期经济总量连跨5万亿元、6万亿元两个台阶。 这份实打实的"成绩单",不仅是经济大省产业向新向优的最佳诠释,更是改革开放先行省份奋勇争先释放 的动力活力。 福建是改革热土、开放前沿。从今年省政府工作报告看,过去一年,福建着力深化改革扩大开放,改革成果 有目共睹,先行先试探路富有成效。 ——改革攻坚纵深突破。福厦泉要素市场化配置综合改革试点获批,国企改革深化提升行动圆满收官,中 国企业500强、民营企业500强中各有20家企业上榜。 ——对外开放不断扩大。积极构建闽企出海综合服务体系,对非洲、拉美出口分别增长20%、7.6%。投 洽会等成功举办,福州、厦门获批服务业扩大开放综合试点。 ——闽台融合深入推进。推动出台大陆首部促进两岸标准共通地方性法规,高校引进台师和招收台生数 量创历史新高,厦金大桥(厦门段)建设加快推进。 "十四五"顺利收官,福建交出亮眼答卷,在现代化产业体系、创新驱动发展、深化改革开放、闽台融合、 生态保护等领域多点突破。省政府工作报告的字里行间,勾勒出福建过去五年的 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘开盘上涨，一度摸到3.7星。 到收盘回落，波动不大，还在3.8星。 大盘股略微上涨。中小盘股下跌。 中证500开盘上涨，摸到高估，到收盘的时候回落了一些。 500低波动上周五达到高估，今天微跌，收盘还在高估。 红利、价值、现金流等价值风格指数整体上涨。 在前段时间小盘、成长风格大涨，红利等指数成为为数不多的低估风格。 最近价值风格也开始发力了。 成长风格相对低迷。 创业板、科创板指数下跌。 港股也是类似的。 港股红利类指数上涨较多，恒生红利低波动等上涨。 港股科技股下跌。 1. 最近消费行业相对比较低迷，出现了连续下跌。 也有朋友问消费行业波动是什么原因？ 消费行业在2018-2021年那轮牛市，是领涨的品种。 2021年也达到了高估。当时咱们定投了消费50、白酒等指数，到高估完成了止盈，收益率也不错。 2021年之后，消费从高估下跌。 在2024年前后，消费重新回到了低估。 目前消费的估值接近这轮熊市的底部。 不过还没到2012-2014年熊市的低估程度。 2. 消费低迷的原因，主要还是基本面持续下降。 在2024年熊市底部，大盘、小盘、成长、价值不同风格品种 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 14,048.44 million HKD, and this trend continued into 2026 with a cumulative net inflow of 412.96 million HKD as of January 13, 2026, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown impressive performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing over 6% since the beginning of 2026 [1] - More than 60% of the stocks in the Hang Seng Index, with a total market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion HKD, have experienced price increases, with an average gain of over 3% [1] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the positive market outlook to three converging factors: an increase in expectations for overseas liquidity easing, accelerated capital inflows, and upward revisions in profit expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is showing strong performance at the beginning of 2026, but investors are facing a significant test with the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff policies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Despite recent news, the U.S. stock and bond markets have remained stable at the start of January 2026, indicating an unusual calmness that may soon be disrupted [1][3]. - The S&P 500 index's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio has exceeded 22 times, a historically high level comparable to the peak in January 2022, which marked the beginning of a nine-month bear market [4]. Group 2: Employment Data Expectations - The consensus anticipates that the U.S. will add 60,000 non-farm jobs in December, close to the preliminary estimate of 64,000 from November, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Risks - A strong employment report could lead investors to lower expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year, potentially interrupting the upward momentum of the stock market [2][4]. - Conversely, a weak report may reignite concerns about the economic outlook and labor market, prompting investors to reassess the high valuations of certain sectors [2][4]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - International gold prices have struggled to maintain momentum due to a strong U.S. dollar, with market participants remaining cautious ahead of the non-farm payroll report [2][4]. - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties are providing some support for gold prices, which are near historical highs [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently rated at 3.9 stars, indicating a stable but cautious investment environment, with a notable decrease in the proportion of undervalued stocks [1][8]. Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index experienced a slight decline, while small and mid-cap stocks showed minor gains [2]. - The ChiNext and STAR Market, representing growth styles, also saw slight increases [5]. - After a significant rise in previous days, Hong Kong stocks faced a downturn, although the Hang Seng Technology index remains at a normal valuation [6][7]. Valuation Insights - The valuation table shows a significant reduction in the green (undervalued) stocks, with the last instance of no green stocks occurring in early 2021 [3][9]. - The current market conditions suggest that if the market continues to rise, the proportion of red (overvalued) stocks will increase [11]. - Historically, during periods of 5-star ratings, the proportion of undervalued stocks was high, indicating a favorable investment environment [12]. Investment Strategies by Star Rating - At 5-star ratings, it is a phase of significant undervaluation, where various indices are typically undervalued, making it a good time for asset allocation and dollar-cost averaging [17][22][23]. - At 4-star ratings, while undervalued stocks decrease, some still remain, allowing for continued asset allocation but with a recommendation to limit stock exposure based on age [24][26]. - At 3-star ratings, the number of undervalued stocks significantly drops, and overvalued stocks begin to increase, making it less suitable for large investments in stock funds [27][28]. - Ratings of 2 to 1 star indicate late-stage bull markets, with 1-star ratings being rare and typically associated with extreme market conditions [34][36][39]. Future Outlook - The potential for future 5-star opportunities exists, with historical patterns suggesting that such opportunities may arise every 3-5 years across various asset classes [41][44]. - Long-term investment strategies should focus on maintaining a presence in the market, as opportunities for undervalued investments will continue to emerge [49].