Core Viewpoint - Block shares experienced a 10% decline following disappointing third-quarter earnings that did not meet Wall Street expectations, indicating a slowdown in profit growth for the Square service [1] Financial Performance - Earnings per share were reported at 54 cents adjusted, compared to the expected 67 cents [4] - Revenue for the quarter was $6.11 billion, falling short of the anticipated $6.31 billion [4] - Year-to-date, Block shares have decreased by 24% [1] Segment Performance - Square's gross payment volume increased by 12% year-over-year, but gross profit growth for the point-of-sale service was only 9%, a decline from the previous quarter's 11% growth [1] - Cash App's gross profit growth was significantly stronger at $1.62 billion, reflecting a 24% increase year-over-year, supported by 58 million monthly transacting active users [3] - The growth in Cash App was driven by services such as Cash App Borrow, Cash App Card, and Buy Now Pay Later [3] Strategic Insights - The company attributed the slower growth in Square to a change in processing partners and lower-margin hardware sales [2] - The Chief Financial Officer noted that the company's product and go-to-market strategies are effectively gaining profitable market share in targeted verticals like food and beverage, particularly with larger sellers and outside the U.S. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that Uni-President China (00220) is experiencing slowed sales growth in Q3 due to intensified competition and subsidies from food delivery platforms, aligning with market expectations [1] Sales Performance - Q3 sales growth for Uni-President China is approximately flat year-on-year, which is consistent with market forecasts [1] - The management has noted that the pressure on beverage business continues to rise in October [1] Future Outlook - The company maintains its annual sales growth target of 6% to 8% despite current challenges [1] - Credit Lyonnais anticipates a slowdown in profit growth for the company next year [1] Stock Valuation - The dividend yield of 6.3% is expected to support the stock price [1] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 10.5 to HKD 10, while maintaining a "outperform" rating [1]

Core Insights - A stock market indicator has entered a historical phase associated with poor return prospects for the S&P 500 index, influenced by trade tensions that have weakened U.S. corporate earnings growth [1] - The Bloomberg industry research stock market cycle model has categorized the market into three phases: accelerating growth, moderate growth, and decline, with the current model indicating a bearish signal for the first time since February 2022 [1][3] Group 1: Market Cycle and Indicators - The stock market cycle model has entered a warning red zone, with the S&P 500 index having dropped below its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2023, currently about 1% below long-term support [3] - The average decline for the S&P 500 during previous red cycles has been 5.6% over the following 12 months, with the current cycle being the first bearish signal since the onset of concerns over the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1][5] - The model is based on six factors, including the correlation of component stock returns and the annual change in the benchmark index's price-to-book ratio [3] Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The recent red cycle is characterized by a significant drop in the S&P 500 index and a decline in its price-to-book ratio growth rate, aligning with historical red cycle patterns [3][5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that interest rate cuts will not occur until there is clarity on trade policy from the White House, despite acknowledging a decline in consumer and business confidence [3] - Analysts suggest that a shift towards a more optimistic outlook may require the White House to ease its protectionist stance, which could alleviate stagflation concerns and improve corporate earnings prospects [5]