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碳酸饮料正在加速“消亡”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 02:29
Core Insights - Coca-Cola's two major operators in China, China Foods and Swire Coca-Cola, reported disappointing performances in the past year, with Swire Coca-Cola's revenue declining by 4.02% to 11.546 billion yuan and China Foods' revenue down by 9% to 11.335 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [1] - The overall beverage market in China grew by 6.2%, but carbonated drinks are losing popularity, with a notable shift towards healthier alternatives like ready-to-drink tea and functional beverages [2][4] - The trend towards health consciousness is evident, with 68% of consumers expressing a desire to reduce sugar intake, leading to a decline in carbonated drink consumption [4][5] Industry Performance - Swire Coca-Cola's total sales in mainland China fell by 1% year-on-year, and the number of active retail outlets also decreased by 1% [2] - PepsiCo's second-quarter revenue reached $22.5 billion, with a mere 0.8% year-on-year growth, and global sales of Pepsi declined by 3%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of sales decline [2] - The beverage industry in China saw a production increase of 7.5% in 2024, with total revenue growing by 4.8% to 534.8 billion yuan [12] Market Trends - The market share of carbonated drinks in convenience stores has dropped from 50% to 25%, replaced by various tea drinks and sugar-free beverages [4] - The sales of sugar-free Coca-Cola grew by 11% in 2022, but the market share of sugar-free soda in convenience stores has decreased from 6.25% in Q3 2022 to 4.13% in Q2 2024 [6][7] - The sugar-free beverage market is becoming saturated, with growth rates slowing down significantly from 40% (2014-2019) to an expected 12% by 2025 [6] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly scrutinizing food labels, with 46% regularly checking ingredient lists, and the preference for sugar-free options is particularly strong among younger demographics [6] - The rise of new brands in the sugar-free segment, such as Yuanqi Forest, has led to a significant market share shift away from traditional carbonated drink giants [7][10] - The popularity of new beverage categories, including functional drinks and traditional Chinese health drinks, is on the rise, with sales of Chinese herbal drinks expected to grow by over 182% in 2024 [6] Strategic Responses - Coca-Cola is attempting to pivot from being solely a carbonated drink company to a diversified beverage brand, launching products like Simply Pop, a prebiotic soda series, and expanding into tea and coffee markets [13][10] - The company is also focusing on enhancing its presence in the food service sector, with over 25,000 new sales points and nearly 600,000 refrigeration units planned for 2024 [9] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with new brands leveraging social media and e-commerce to capture market share, particularly among younger consumers [14][15]