一、比特币（BTC）合约技术面分析 （一）日线级别：短期多头动能初显，中期空头趋势未改 昨日比特币日线收出一根小阳线，与前期K线共同构成连续阳线反弹形态。当前价格仍处于相对低位区 间，且单日回调力度较弱，附图技术指标（如MACD/KDJ等，可根据实际分析工具补充）呈现金叉向 上运行态势，表明短期市场多头动能有所增强。但需重点关注周线级别表现——当前周线仍维持调整结 构，整体大周期趋势尚未扭转，中期空头主导格局未变。综合判断，当前反弹更多源于市场短期需求释 放与技术性修正需求（如超跌后的指标修复、部分抄底资金介入等），并非趋势性反转信号。投资者需 理性看待短期反弹，避免将局部修复误判为趋势拐点。 （二）短周期小时图：区间震荡特征显著，交投情绪清淡 小时图显示，价格波动区间明显收敛，整体维持在90500-91900窄幅区间内震荡整理。受美国感恩节假 期影响，美股市场休市导致外部资金流动性降低（尤其是美盘时段通常主导的增量资金缺失），叠加市 场消息面相对平淡，投资者情绪偏谨慎，整体成交量维持低迷状态，行情波动幅度受限。 本轮反弹本质上是前期深度下跌后的技术性反抽（或称修复性需求），主要源于超卖指标修复与部分资 金短 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 短纤：成本抬升需求正反馈，短期反弹， PF-PR 价差走扩 瓶片：成本抬升，短期反弹，PF-PR 价差走扩 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 所 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6142 | 6146 | -4 | PF11-12 | -18 | 10 | -28 | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6160 | 6136 | 24 | PF12-01 | -28 | 58 | -86 | | | 短纤2601 | 6188 | 6078 | 110 | PF主力基差 | 155 | 164 | -9 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 199910 | 164110 | 35800 | 短纤华东现货价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short fiber: Short-term rebound [1] - Bottle chip: Short-term rebound [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Short fiber futures rebounded after following the decline of raw materials. Most factory quotes for short fiber spot remained unchanged, and transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis. The sales of direct-spun polyester staple fibers were light, with an average production and sales rate of 38% as of around 3:00 pm [1]. - Polyester bottle chip factories continued to slightly lower their export quotes. The negotiation range of mainstream bottle chip factories in East China was between 765 - 785 US dollars/ton FOB Shanghai Port, and that in South China was between 760 - 770 US dollars/ton FOB main ports, with overall discounts negotiated based on quantity [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Short Fiber - Futures prices: Short fiber 2509 was 6250 (down 4 from the previous day), short fiber 2510 was 6348 (up 6), short fiber 2511 was 6334 (down 76) [1]. - Spread: PF09 - 10 was -98 (down 10), PF10 - 11 was 14 (up 82), PF basis was 87 (down 21) [1]. - Position and volume: The short fiber main contract's open interest was 168,093 (up 21,285), and the trading volume was 150,977 (up 20,764) [1]. - Spot price and production - sales rate: The short fiber spot price in East China was 6,435 (down 15), and the production - sales rate was 39% (down 6%) [1]. Bottle Chip - Futures prices: Bottle chip 2509 was 5694 (down 58), bottle chip 2510 was 5842 (up 16), bottle chip 2511 was 5840 (up 20) [1]. - Spread: PR09 - 10 was -148 (down 74), PR10 - 11 was 2 (down 4), PR main contract basis was -22 (up 14) [1]. - Position and volume: The bottle chip main contract's open interest was 37,165 (up 1,278), and the trading volume was 38,013 (down 64,262) [1]. - Spot price: The bottle chip spot price in East China was 5820 (up 30), and in South China was 5880 (up 20) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Short fiber: Short fiber futures rebounded after following the decline of raw materials. Factory quotes mostly remained unchanged, and sales were light with an average production - sales rate of 38% [1]. - Bottle chip: Polyester bottle chip factories continued to slightly lower their export quotes, with different negotiation ranges in East and South China [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Short fiber trend intensity: 1 [3] - Bottle chip trend intensity: 1 (only referring to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for short-term rebounds and day trading opportunities in a counter-trend market, as analyzed by researcher Hao Ren during a live broadcast [1] Group 1 - The analysis focuses on the current market conditions and the potential for investors to capitalize on short-term fluctuations [1] - The live broadcast aims to provide insights into market dynamics and trading strategies for investors looking to navigate the current environment [1]