Report Summary Core Information - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties dated July 24, 2025, with data from Wind, Mysteel, and GF Futures Research Institute [2][3][4] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF509) has a futures price of 5878, a basis rate of 1.38%, and a historical quantile of 63.70% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM509) has a futures price of 6020, a basis rate of 82, and a historical quantile of 40.50% [1] - HRB400 20mm rebar (RB2510) futures price is 3380, with a basis rate of 0.35% and a historical quantile of 22.40% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510) futures price is 3438 [1] - Iron ore (I2509) futures price is 843, with a basis rate of - 12.15% and a historical quantile of 27.50% [1] - Coke (J2509) futures price is 1500, with a basis rate of 3.47% [1] - Coking coal (JM2509) futures price is 1053, with a basis rate of - 83 and a historical quantile of 2.40% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509) has a futures price of 79790, a basis rate of 0.25%, and a historical quantile of 64.16% [1] - Aluminum (AL2509) futures price is 20850, with a basis rate of 0.29% and a historical quantile of 65.83% [1] - Alumina (AO2509) futures price is 3239, with a basis rate of - 3.45% and a historical quantile of 14.75% [1] - Zinc (ZN2509) futures price is 22750, with a basis rate of - 0.98% and a historical quantile of 8.75% [1] - Tin (SN2508) futures price is 268900, with a basis rate of 0.13% and a historical quantile of 58.12% [1] - Nickel (NI5509) futures price is 123450, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 59.16% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2509) futures price is 13070, with a basis rate of 1.32% and a historical quantile of 37.98% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510) has a futures price of 792.9, a basis rate of - 0.59%, and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - Silver (AG2510) futures price is 9475.0, with a basis rate of - 0.18% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2509) has a futures price of 2920, a basis rate of - 5.65%, and a historical quantile of 5.20% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2509) futures price is 8150, with a basis rate of 0.94% and a historical quantile of 6.80% [1] - Palm oil (P2509) futures price is 9040, with a basis rate of 0.51% and a historical quantile of 21.90% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM509) futures price is 2758.0, with a basis rate of - 4.64% and a historical quantile of 13.10% [1] - Rapeseed oil (O1509) futures price is 9580, with a basis rate of 1.31% and a historical quantile of 48.00% [1] - Corn (C2509) futures price is 2360, with a basis rate of 1.68% and a historical quantile of 66.20% [1] - Corn starch (CS2509) futures price is 2675.0, with a basis rate of 2.43% and a historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - Live pigs (LH2509) futures price is 14590.0, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 36.40% [1] - Eggs (JD2509) futures price is 3220, with a basis rate of - 11.47% and a historical quantile of 8.60% [1] - Cotton (CF509) futures price is 15411, with a basis rate of 8.68% and a historical quantile of 84.80% [1] - Sugar (SR509) futures price is 6120, with a basis rate of 4.90% and a historical quantile of 55.00% [1] - Apples (AP510) futures price is 7956.0, with a basis rate of 51.30% [1] - Red dates (C1601) futures price is 8300, with a basis rate of - 2166% and a historical quantile of 7.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX509) has a futures price of 6860.0, a basis rate of 1.03%, and a historical quantile of 48.90% [1] - PTA (TA509) futures price is 4784.0, with a basis rate of - 0.08% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2509) futures price is 4436.0, with a basis rate of 1.44% and a historical quantile of 83.10% [1] - Polyester fiber (PF509) futures price is 6432.0, with a basis rate of 2.61% and a historical quantile of 79.60% [1] - Styrene (EB2509) futures price is 7397.0, with a basis rate of 0.72% and a historical quantile of 37.70% [1] - Methanol (MA509) futures price is 2411.0, with a basis rate of 0.17% and a historical quantile of 42.00% [1] - Urea (UR509) futures price is 1773.0, with a basis rate of 3.21% and a historical quantile of 29.80% [1] - LLDPE (L2509) futures price is 7288.0, with a basis rate of - 0.11% and a historical quantile of 17.90% [1] - PP (PP2509) futures price is 7096.0, with a basis rate of 0.55% and a historical quantile of 32.50% [1] - PVC (V2509) futures price is 5070.0, with a basis rate of - 1.5% and a historical quantile of 59.80% [1] - Caustic soda (SH209) futures price is 2593.8, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 41.80% [1] - LPG (PG2509) futures price is 4548.0, with a basis rate of 14.65% and a historical quantile of 74.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2509) futures price is 3845.0, with a basis rate of 6.98% and a historical quantile of 86.30% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2509) futures price is 11875.0, with a basis rate of 1.05% and a historical quantile of 41.50% [1] - Glass (FG509) futures price is 1168.0, with a basis rate of - 3.68% and a historical quantile of 51.05% [1] - Soda ash (SA509) futures price is 1338.0, with a basis rate of - 0.75% and a historical quantile of 26.68% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2509) futures price is 14950.0, with a basis rate of - 0.37% and a historical quantile of 91.66% [1] Financial Futures - IF2509.CFE has a futures price of 4119.8, a basis rate of - 0.26%, and a historical quantile of 35.20% [1] - IH2509.CFE futures price is 2802.8, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 67.10% [1] - IC2509.CFE futures price is 6196.8, with a basis rate of - 1.25% and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - IM2509.CFE futures price is 6607.2, with a basis rate of - 1.6% and a historical quantile of 11.80% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2509) futures price is 102.38, with a basis rate of - 0.01% and a historical quantile of 23.40% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2509) futures price is 100.75, with a basis rate of 0.00% and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2509) futures price is 100.89, with a basis rate of 0.02% and a historical quantile of 17.80% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2509) futures price is 119.35, with a basis rate of 0.22% and a historical quantile of 34.60% [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report - Treasury Bonds on June 12, 2025, released by the Shenwan Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The previous trading day saw a general increase in treasury bond futures prices, with low IRR for CTD bonds of main contracts and no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term treasury bond yields generally declined. The Fed may keep rates unchanged in the next meeting, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, with loose liquidity supporting bond futures prices [2][3] Group 4: Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2509 contract rose 0.05%. The trading volume and open interest of various contracts also changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2509 contract increased by 2389 [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to main treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] Group 5: Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Rate Changes**: The previous trading day, short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 0.6bp, DR007 rate rose 1.91bp, and GC007 rate rose 3.2bp [2] Group 6: Spot Market - **Chinese Treasury Yields**: The previous trading day, yields of key - term Chinese treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 0.79bp to 1.65%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 17.12bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Yields**: The previous trading day, the US 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 6bp, the German 10Y yield rose 0bp, and the Japanese 10Y yield rose 0.7bp [2] Group 7: Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On June 11, the central bank conducted 164 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan [3] - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Talks**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, reaching a consensus on measures to consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks [3] - **China - Africa Cooperation**: President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators for the Implementation of the Outcomes of the China - Africa Cooperation Forum, emphasizing cooperation in multiple fields [3] - **CPI Data**: In May, 8 provinces' CPI rose year - on - year, 2 were flat, and 21 declined. CPI is expected to show a mild recovery [3] - **Debt Replacement**: As of the end of May, over 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds were issued, completing over 80% of the annual quota [3] - **US Inflation**: US May CPI data was mild. Trump called for a 1 - percentage - point rate cut, and traders bet on two rate cuts this year, but the Fed may keep rates unchanged next week [3] Group 8: Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: Most money market interest rates rose. For example, the 1 - day and 7 - day weighted average rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US treasury yields generally declined, driven by mild inflation data reducing expectations of short - term Fed rate hikes [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew 67.17 billion yuan last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2509 contract is near the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. - In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow. After the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, the growth rate accelerated significantly. Despite having two fewer working days year - on - year, imports and exports and exports increased by 2.7% and 6.3% year - on - year respectively. The total value of China - US imports and exports was 285.51 billion yuan, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.67%, and the decline was 0.58 percentage points narrower than in April. Citigroup postponed its forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and expects three interest rate cuts of 75 basis points this year, revised from the previous forecast of 100 basis points [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: In May, China's imports and exports continued to grow, and the growth rate accelerated after the China - US economic and trade high - level talks. Citigroup postponed the forecast of the US interest rate cut from July to September and revised the expected interest rate cut amount [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The central bank net withdrew funds. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, Treasury bond futures recovered after hitting a low. The weekly price increases of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.18%, and 0.31% respectively [6]. 4. Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates decreased, and the yield spread widened [9]. 5. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis narrowed [13][14]. 7. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than on June 3, and medium - to - long - term yields decreased [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract rising 0%. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. Overseas, yields of key - term Treasury bonds in the US, Germany, and Japan increased. The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Performance**: The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose. For example, TS2509 rose 0.050 to 102.396, with a 0.05% increase; TF2509 rose 0.150 to 106.020, with a 0.14% increase [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The positions of some contracts increased, such as T2509 with an increase of 2562, while TF2509 decreased by 973. Trading volumes also varied among contracts [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads changed, for example, the cross - period spread of T2509 decreased from 0.0250 to 0.005 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Rate Changes**: SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 1.5bp, DR007 rate fell 4.3bp, and GC007 rate fell 7.2bp [2]. Spot Market - **Yield Changes**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. For example, the 10Y Treasury bond yield declined 1.9bp to 1.68%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 16.44bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Yield Changes**: The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 3, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. In May, the central bank carried out SLF operations of 14.01 billion yuan, and policy banks net - repaid 2700 billion yuan of PSL [3]. - **Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The OECD lowered the growth forecasts for the US and the global economy. The US 2025 growth forecast was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 2.9% [3]. - **International Relations**: The US increased tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, starting from June 4, 2025. The US also made unfounded accusations against China, and China firmly opposed these actions [3]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June due to a large number of maturing certificates of deposit. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [3].