12月16日，短纤现货加工费至1114元/吨附近，PF2602盘面加工费至914元/吨，PF2603盘面加工费至885 元/吨。 【现货方面】 12月16日，短纤现货方面工厂报价维稳，半光1.4D主流报价在6400~6500区间。期货震荡盘整，贸易商 及期现商商谈走货，半光1.4D主流商谈重心多在6100~6400区间，销售一般。直纺涤短工厂销售同样回 落，截止下午3:00附近，平均产销46%。 【利润方面】 【供需方面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 需求：下游维稳走货，销售偏弱，库存维持小增。 【行情展望】 除个别装置检修外，目前短纤尚有利润且工厂库存压力不大，短纤供应维持高位；需求上，终端需求季 节性转弱中。短期短纤库存压力不大，叠加价格阶段性低位下游会适量采购，但因纱厂订单季 ...

Supply and Demand - The supply of direct-spun polyester short fibers remains stable at a utilization rate of 97.5% as of November 21 [3] - Downstream prices for pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn are maintained, with domestic sales being average and inventory levels stable [4] Pricing and Profitability - As of November 26, the processing fee for short fiber spot prices is around 1,041 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for PF2601 and PF2602 contracts are 984 CNY/ton and 946 CNY/ton respectively [2] - The mainstream trading range for semi-dull 1.4D short fibers is between 6,200 to 6,400 CNY, with factory sales declining and average sales-to-production ratio at 44% as of 3:00 PM [1] Market Outlook - The overall supply and demand for short fibers continues to show a weak trend, with recent processing fees being compressed but still maintaining profitability for short fiber factories [5] - Seasonal weakening of terminal demand is expected in November, leading to limited price drivers for short fibers and a primary focus on fee compression [5]

Core Viewpoint - Short fiber futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 6180.00 yuan, with a current price of 6168.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.82% [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Short fiber production load has risen to approximately 95.4%, indicating a high level. A 250,000-ton short fiber plant in Fujian is undergoing maintenance for two weeks, affecting 1.4D cotton-type short fiber production [1] - Demand side: Sales of direct-spun polyester short fibers show a significant disparity, with an average production and sales rate of 67%. Downstream operations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang show varying load rates: 81% for texturing, 69% for weaving, and 78% for dyeing. Raw material inventory levels at terminal factories are lower by 3-7 days and higher by 15-25 days [1] - Overall, the supply remains at a high level while demand is average, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation, although cost support is weak [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Influencing Factors - Southwest Futures predicts that short fiber prices will fluctuate in line with cost movements [1] - Ruida Futures anticipates that short fiber prices will follow the volatility of crude oil prices, influenced by the U.S. government's plan to replenish strategic petroleum reserves by 1 million barrels [1] - Current production of polyester short fibers in China stands at 164,900 tons, with an average capacity utilization rate of 87.16%. The average operating rate in the pure polyester yarn industry is 73.35%, showing a slight increase [1] - As of October 16, the inventory levels for polyester short fiber factories in China are 6.11 days, a decrease of 1.47 days from the previous period, while physical inventory is at 13.40 days, down by 1.19 days [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - fiber industry is rated as "oscillating" [6] Core Viewpoints - The terminal textile and clothing market lacks highlights, but the downstream polyester yarn segment has increased its overall inventory level due to peak - season expectations. The high growth rate of exports has compensated for the lack of domestic demand. On the supply side, with the industry operating at a high capacity, there is limited room for further supply growth. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of short - fiber is limited. The absolute price is expected to mainly follow the fluctuations of polyester raw materials, and the processing fee may continue to fluctuate within a range. When the short - fiber inventory is at a low level and the spot circulation is temporarily tight, opportunities to expand short - fiber processing fees on dips or engage in positive spreads between contract months can be considered [4][65][66] Summary by Directory 1. Third - quarter Short - fiber Market Review - Short - fiber prices continued to be cost - driven, following polyester raw materials to rise and fall twice. The futures price of the main contract closed slightly lower than at the end of the second quarter. The spot processing margin briefly increased after operations such as joint production cuts and contract reductions by factories, then quickly gave back the gains, and later rebounded slightly with limited overall fluctuations [12] 2. Supply: The Industry Maintains High - level Operation but Lacks Elasticity for Further Growth - In the third quarter, the short - fiber operating rate first decreased and then steadily increased. From July to August 2025, the total short - fiber output was 1.442 million tons, with the average monthly output increasing by 3.5% compared to the second quarter. In mid - June, facing uncertainties such as geopolitical risks and the dilemma of high costs and low processing margins, short - fiber factories reached a resolution to jointly cut production by 15% in July and reduce contract volumes by 20%. In July, the short - fiber operating rate dropped from around 95% to below 90%, but since August, with the improvement of demand and inventory reduction, the operating rate gradually increased. By mid - September, it returned to around 95% [14] - Looking forward to the fourth quarter, short - fiber supply is expected to remain at a high level but lack incremental elasticity. New production capacity in the fourth quarter is unlikely to achieve effective output within the year. As of now, there is only an annual capacity increase of 340,000 tons in 2025, a 3.6% increase from last year. Although there is a probability of a 300,000 - ton/year device of Suqian Yida being put into operation, it is difficult to release significant incremental output within the year. The operating rate of existing production capacity has limited room for further increase. In 2025, the short - fiber industry's operating rate has been maintained at a relatively high level of 85% - 95%, about 5 - 10 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. Currently, the industry's operating rate is around 95%, and the operating rate of cotton - type short - fiber has soared to around 98%, leaving little room for further improvement [17][20] 3. Domestic Demand: The Peak Season Starts Slowly and Shows a Disappointing Outlook 3.1 Terminal Textile and Clothing Domestic Demand Remains Stable, and Export Growth Turns Negative - From January to August, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing, footwear, and textile products were 940 billion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The consumer's consumption willingness continued to recover slowly, and the terminal consumer market maintained stable growth, but the overall growth rate was moderate, and the demand potential still needed to be further released. In terms of exports, from January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 197.27 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, textile exports were 94.51 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, and clothing exports were 102.76 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Affected by factors such as the increase in US tariffs, the growth rate of textile and clothing exports to the US turned negative, and the cumulative year - on - year decline showed an expanding trend. In addition, the export growth rate to some countries such as Europe and ASEAN also slowed down in the third quarter [28][34][36] 3.2 The Peak Season in the Weaving Segment Starts Slowly - This year, textile enterprises' orders have been weak, inventory has accumulated, competition has intensified, profit margins have declined significantly, and production enthusiasm has been suppressed. Although the "Golden September" has arrived, the improvement in the operating rate of the weaving segment is far less than that in the same period of 2023 and 2024, and it is also in the low - level range of the same period in the past five years. The transition from the off - season to the peak season in the terminal market has been significantly delayed, and the lackluster peak - season performance is emerging [44][45] 3.3 Downstream Yarn Mills Still Face Finished - Product Inventory Pressure, but Raw - Material Inventory Has Increased Quarter - on - Quarter - Terminal demand has not fully started, and yarn mills have faced slow inventory reduction due to weak downstream procurement. The low processing fee of pure polyester yarn has also restricted the operating enthusiasm of yarn mills. However, since the third quarter, the profit and inventory pressure in the downstream yarn segment have improved quarter - on - quarter. With peak - season expectations, the overall inventory level has increased, and short - fiber inventory has been smoothly reduced [50][52] 4. Exports: The Upward Shift of the Industrial Chain's Exports and the Continued Strong Growth of Short - fiber Exports - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of uncombed polyester short - fiber (HS code 55032000) was 1.0965 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.5%. The reasons for the high - growth rate of exports are the obvious cost advantage of raw materials and the upward shift of the industrial chain's exports. It is estimated that the export increment in the first eight months has digested about 63.6% of the new short - fiber production. The export market has shared a significant sales pressure in the context of lackluster domestic demand [58] 5. Investment Suggestions - Given the fundamentals, as the terminal textile and clothing market lacks highlights, the downstream polyester yarn segment still faces finished - product inventory pressure, but the overall inventory level has increased due to peak - season expectations. The high growth rate of exports has compensated for the lack of domestic demand. On the supply side, with the industry operating at a high capacity, there is limited room for further supply growth. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of short - fiber is limited. The absolute price is expected to mainly follow the fluctuations of polyester raw materials, and the processing fee may continue to fluctuate within a range. When the short - fiber inventory is at a low level and the spot circulation is temporarily tight, opportunities to expand short - fiber processing fees on dips or engage in positive spreads between contract months can be considered [4][65][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - fiber: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - fiber supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and its situation is relatively healthy among polyester products. However, the optimistic market expectations at the beginning of the year are unlikely to be fulfilled, and it will take time for the industry profit to recover. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee when it is low, but also set a timely profit - taking target [5][76] Summary by Directory 1. Fluctuation of Short - fiber Prices and Processing Fees in the First Half of 2025 - Short - fiber prices closely followed polyester raw materials in H1 2025, with increased volatility and a lower processing - fee center. The price trend can be divided into three stages: in the first stage, weak oil prices and demand led to a decline in polyester industry chain prices and weakening processing fees; in the second stage, the US tariff policy caused price fluctuations, and the processing fee first expanded passively and then weakened; in the third stage, geopolitical risks and PX plant production cuts pushed up prices, and the strong raw materials restricted the processing - fee recovery [15][16] 2. Supply: Factory Cyclical Production Cuts Limit Actual Output Growth Potential 2.1 New Capacity Addition is Small, and Existing Device Load Increases Significantly - From 2024 - 2025, new short - fiber capacity addition was small, but the load of existing devices increased significantly. In 2025, the total new capacity was 320,000 tons/year, with a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The short - fiber capacity growth rate is lower among polyester products, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively healthy. The short - fiber output from January to May 2025 increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the current output already reflects the impact of new capacity. There are no new capacity addition plans in H2, and factory cyclical production cuts will limit output growth [2][21][27] 2.2 Factory Joint Production Cuts Provide Temporary Support for Processing - Fee Recovery - Since last year, the industry's self - regulatory behavior of adjusting the operating rate based on the processing fee has been effective. In March and June 2025, short - fiber factories reached production - cut agreements. The production - cut plan in June was more aggressive. The current physical inventory of short - fiber factories is at a healthy level, and the production - cut news may boost market confidence and support the processing - fee recovery in the short term [30] 3. Domestic Demand: Terminal Demand Remains Resilient, and the Polyester Yarn Link is the Bottleneck 3.1 Consumption Policies are Effective, and Domestic Textile and Apparel Demand is Expected to Maintain Moderate Growth - In 2025, the domestic consumer market recovered. From January to May, the cumulative growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.0%, and the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles increased by 3.3% year - on - year. With the implementation of consumption - boosting policies in H2, the domestic textile and apparel market is expected to continue to rise steadily [32] 3.2 The Window Period for "Grabbing Exports" is Coming to an End, and Overseas Orders will be the Core Variable in H2 - From January to May 2025, textile and apparel exports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The US is still the largest single market for China's textile and apparel exports, but its share is declining. The "grabbing export" phenomenon may have overdrafted the export demand to the US in H2. However, China's exports to some countries such as Europe and ASEAN maintained high growth rates, and the export demand in H2 may decline month - on - month but still maintain some resilience [41][43][44] 3.3 The Profit of the Textile and Apparel Industry Declines, and the Weaving Operating Rate is Lower than the Same Period Last Year - The inventory pressure of textile and apparel finished products is increasing, the industry profit rate is declining, and the production enthusiasm is suppressed. The weaving operating rate has a downward trend and is more than 10% lower than the same period last year [53] 3.4 Downstream Yarn Mills Have High Finished - Product Inventory Pressure and Stable Raw - Material Procurement - The supply - demand situation of the polyester yarn market this year is weaker than last year, with a lower operating rate, high finished - product inventory, and a low processing fee. Yarn mills mainly make small - order and just - in - time purchases due to high inventory and cash - flow losses, which limits the short - fiber demand [62] 4. Exports: Upward Shift of Industry Chain Exports, Strong Growth in Short - fiber Exports - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of uncombed polyester staple fibers was 668,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%. The reasons for the high - speed growth are the cost advantage and the upward shift of industry chain exports. It is estimated that the export increment in the first five months absorbed about 72.2% of the new short - fiber output, relieving the sales pressure [67][69] 5. Investment Suggestions - Fundamentally, short - fiber supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee when it is near the factory's cash - flow cost, as it has a good risk - return ratio, but also set a timely profit - taking target [5][76]