中信证券表示，目前碳纤维行业正处于周期底部复苏阶段，经过前期价格深度调整与产能出清，行业供 需格局逐步修复，价格已呈现筑底企稳迹象。随着"反内卷"政策推动行业供给收缩与集中度提升，行业 景气度有望持续改善。建议聚焦三大方向：1)专注航空航天、无人机/eVTOL等高端应用，具备3K丝、 T700级以上高性能碳纤维量产能力的企业；2)新能源产业链优势企业：深度绑定风电、氢能等优质客 户，具备成本优势和规模效应；3)出海逻辑清晰的供应商：出口表现亮眼，积极拓展国际市场的企业。 据百川盈孚，截至2025年8月，主流碳纤维型号T300-12K、T300-24/25K、T300-48/50K、T700-12K的华 东市场价格分别为85元/kg、75元/kg、70元/kg、105元/kg，国内碳纤维价格自2025年初以来维持相对平 稳，为产业链盈利能力改善提供了稳定的外部环境，截至2025年8月，行业开工率已恢复至61.52%，较 年初增长10.02ppts，显示部分复苏迹象。 ...

2)供需面：据中研网，2025年国内碳纤维产能预计达14.4万吨，预计下半年风电领域维持强势，航空航 天、体育休闲等领域需求回暖，新兴领域如低空飞行、无人机等占比进一步提升。尽管行业整体供应过 剩局面仍未改变，但行业整体在相对触底下，正逐步从"量增"转向"质升"; 3)价格：该行预计会呈现"结构性分化"与"温和修复"并存的特点，预计工业级T300等承压运行，低位震 荡;高性能T700/T800价格区间预计稳中有升;预计特种品类(如湿法3K)在需求拉动下，价格强势运行。 2025年我国碳纤维市场整体呈现价格趋稳、部分领域复苏的态势 据百川盈孚，截止2025年8月，主流碳纤维型号T300-12K、T300-24/25K、T300-48/50K、T700-12K的华 东市场价格分别为85元/kg、75元/kg、70元/kg、105元/kg，较年初跌幅均为0%，国内碳纤维价格自2025 年初以来维持相对平稳，为产业链盈利能力改善提供了稳定的外部环境，截至2025年8月，行业开工率 已恢复至61.52%(同比+14.92ppts)，较年初+10.02ppts，显示部分复苏迹象。 2025H2展望：碳纤维价格"结构性分化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][8]. Core Views - The company faces pressure from weak demand and declining sales, but it is taking measures to enhance competitiveness [7]. - The carbon fiber sales volume decreased by 10.12% in 2024, with an inventory increase of 61.45%, indicating a mismatch in supply and demand [7]. - The average price of carbon fiber products fell by 23.44% year-on-year, with a current industry gross margin of -18.30%, suggesting profitability challenges for most manufacturers [7]. - The company is focusing on high-end product output and cost advantages to improve profitability [7]. - The company has a strong market position in the new energy sector, with over 50% market share, and aims to increase its market share further in 2025 [7]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.557 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.07% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -124 million yuan, down 139.12% [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at -0.14 yuan, with a forecasted recovery to 0.38 yuan by 2027 [4][20]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 340 million, 1.75 billion, and 3.39 billion yuan respectively [7][20]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is the only domestic enterprise with mature technology for dry-jet wet-spinning carbon fiber production, with a current capacity of 28,500 tons [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with a new 30,000-ton facility expected to begin trial production in 2025 [7]. - The product matrix includes a full range of carbon fiber varieties, and the company has successfully developed several high-end products in 2024 [7].