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中信证券:碳纤维行业正处于周期底部复苏阶段 需求呈现结构性回暖
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 01:31
Core Viewpoint - The carbon fiber industry is currently in a recovery phase after reaching a cyclical bottom, with supply-demand dynamics gradually improving and prices stabilizing after significant adjustments [1][2] Group 1: Industry Characteristics - In 2024, China's carbon fiber industry will exhibit three main characteristics: a slowdown in capacity growth, significant regional differentiation, and product structure upgrades [1] - New carbon fiber capacity in China is expected to reach 15,300 tons in 2024, bringing total capacity to 135,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.73% [1] - The production volume for carbon fiber in 2024 is projected to be 59,000 tons, reflecting an 8.16% year-on-year increase, with T300 grade fibers accounting for 63.58% and T700+ grade fibers for 36.42% [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - By 2025, the carbon fiber market is expected to show price stabilization and recovery in certain sectors, with the industry operating at a 61.52% utilization rate as of August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.92 percentage points [2] - The prices for mainstream carbon fiber models in East China have remained stable since the beginning of 2025, providing a stable external environment for improving profitability in the industry [2] - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see a "structural differentiation" in prices, with high-performance T700/T800 prices expected to rise, while industrial-grade T300 may experience pressure [2]
光威复材(300699):业绩短期承压 装备用T700、T800级碳纤维放量贡献收入
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-03 08:41
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, indicating challenges in the market due to overcapacity and increased competition in the carbon fiber industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 741 million yuan, down 15.12% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 548 million yuan, a significant decline of 28.96%, with net profit dropping 49.93% to 126 million yuan [1]. Segment Performance - The carbon fiber and fabric segment generated revenue of 1.45 billion yuan, down 12.91% year-on-year, accounting for 59.27% of total revenue [2]. - The T800 grade carbon fiber saw a revenue increase of 64.64% to 472 million yuan, while the T700 grade remained stable due to increased demand for T700 in equipment [2]. - Wind power carbon beam business experienced a recovery with revenue of 537 million yuan, up 25.81% year-on-year [2]. - The prepreg business generated 234 million yuan, down 12.86%, primarily due to intensified competition and price declines [2]. - The composite technology segment achieved revenue of 107 million yuan, up 15.6%, driven by growth in drone-related businesses [2]. - The precision machinery segment saw a significant increase in revenue of 89 million yuan, up 161.20% [2]. New Product Development - The company is actively developing new products and expanding into new fields such as civil aviation, low-altitude economy, and electromagnetic energy storage [4]. - New T1100 and T1100 grade carbon fibers have been developed to meet high-end equipment needs, with successful applications in drones and electric aircraft [4]. - The GW300 carbon fiber and flame-retardant prepreg have been approved for use in large aircraft, marking a significant milestone for the company [4]. - New high-performance prepregs for various applications, including 3C consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries, have been successfully developed and are in stable supply [4]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company successfully passed the equivalence verification for a certain model of carbon fiber production line, ensuring product performance consistency [5]. - The first phase of the 4000-ton high-performance carbon fiber production line in Inner Mongolia was completed and began production in mid-2024 [5].