证券研究报告 原油周报：美国原油库存下降，对油价有所支撑 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年8月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别66.9/63.1美元/桶，较上周分别+0.7/-0.2美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.2/4.2/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比-579/- 601/+22/+42万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1338万桶/天，环比+6万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周411台，环比-1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周167部，环比-2部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1721万桶/天，环比+3万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为96.6%，环比+0.2pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量为650/437/2 ...

Group 1 - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly, and the U.S. dollar index increased, putting pressure on international gold prices, which fell to their lowest level in over two weeks [1] - As of the close, December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $3358.7 per ounce, a decline of 0.57% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also decreased, with the price of 999 gold jewelry dropping to 979 RMB per gram [1] Group 2 - Recent improvements in the Russia-Ukraine situation have led to a rise in market risk appetite, which has put pressure on gold prices [2] - The U.S. dollar index has been rebounding, further negatively impacting gold prices [2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to influence gold prices, which are currently under pressure [2] Group 3 - Current prices for various gold and platinum products in RMB per gram include: - 999 gold jewelry: 979 RMB - 999.9 gold jewelry: 989 RMB - Platinum jewelry: 470 RMB - Gold bars: 952 RMB [3][4] - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery settled at $62.35 per barrel, down 1.69%, while October delivery of Brent crude oil settled at $65.79 per barrel, down 1.22% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is slightly bearish for the oil market. The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories, combined with the recent significant increases in global crude oil supply expectations in the EIA and IEA monthly reports, exerts downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 426,698 thousand barrels, a week-on-week increase of 3,036 thousand barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275 thousand barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 45 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 226 thousand barrels [2][3]. - Gasoline inventories decreased by 792 thousand barrels, in line with the expected decrease of 700 thousand barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 714 thousand barrels, in line with the expected increase of 700 thousand barrels [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 43 thousand barrels per day to 13,327 thousand barrels per day, net imports increased by 699 thousand barrels per day to 3,343 thousand barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 56 thousand barrels per day to 17,180 thousand barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 543.25 thousand barrels per day to 21,159 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 127.75 thousand barrels per day to 9,039.75 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 69.5 thousand barrels per day to 3,592.25 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 50.5 thousand barrels per day to 1,827.25 thousand barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased while the downstream refinery utilization rate remained high, dropping 0.5% to 96.4%. The increase in inventories was mainly due to increased imports and decreased exports of U.S. crude oil. Since the end of June, U.S. crude oil exports have been slightly lower than before, suggesting poor overseas demand or the impact of tariffs [4]. - Gasoline demand has rebounded slightly, but its overall performance during this year's driving peak season has been poor, often falling below 9 million barrels per day. As the peak travel season is in its later stage, the market boost is limited. Distillate demand remains stable, and inventories are still at a low level. As the weather turns to autumn and the driving peak season enters the second half, the market will focus on distillates [8].

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 14 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Global economic growth is slowing, with an expected growth rate of approximately 1% in the second half of the year [1][2] - The U.S. is anticipated to begin cutting interest rates three times starting in September [1][2] - Trade agreements have led to slight GDP forecast increases for Europe, Japan, and South Korea, while the European Central Bank's rate remains unchanged at 2% [2] - The U.S.-China trade relationship remains stable, with both sides agreeing to extend a 90-day period without increasing tariffs [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - U.S. labor market data has shown signs of a downturn, with a revised growth forecast of 1.2% for the first half of the year and a similar expectation for the second half [2] - India's GDP forecast has been slightly downgraded due to a 25% retaliatory tariff, with revisions for Q4 GDP also noted [2] - Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, with a need to closely monitor oil prices as supply constraints could have significant impacts [3][8] - The Indian central bank's upcoming meeting is under scrutiny due to domestic economic challenges and potential interest rate hikes [3][9] Market Dynamics - Following the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, the U.S. dollar surged, but market conditions have since stabilized, leading to increased volatility against Asian currencies [4] - The U.S. labor market's turning point has led to a reassessment of growth prospects and interest rate expectations, reigniting predictions of a weaker dollar [5] - Selective trading strategies are favored in the current environment, particularly in Hong Kong and India, where managing front-end inflation is crucial [6] Additional Insights - The Indian central bank's intervention strategies have evolved, focusing on smoothing market fluctuations rather than directly preventing volatility [11] - India's current economic status includes approximately $695 billion in reserves, with a trade deficit of about $18 billion last month, primarily influenced by oil prices [12] - Upcoming data releases from China and the Bank of England's meeting are critical points of interest, alongside potential nominations for the new governor of the Federal Reserve [13]

金十数据7月17日讯，美国总统特朗普表示，美国可能会严格按照与日本达成的贸易协议执行，并称未 来可能还会与印度达成另一项协议。他说："我们有一些相当不错的协即将公布。但一项真正大的协议 是针对那150个我们目前没有真正与之谈判、规模较小、与我们贸易往来不多的国家。"他还希望油价能 再降低一点，认为每桶64美元的油价很棒。 特朗普希望油价再降一点 称将公布多项贸易协议 ...

特朗普：希望油价能再降一点，每桶64美元的油价太棒了。 ...

据路透社计算，俄罗斯7月份的油价以卢布计价仍比2025年预算目标低出11%。 ...

| //// > 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月15日 | | 原油 | な女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 二季度全球石油库存累增2.7%,较一季度的2%边际加快,三季度第一周在原油去库、成品油累库中总体库存下 降0.3%;从乎衡表预期来看,三季度旺季石油库存至少累积速度将放缓。5月以来油价自底部回升持续受到旺季 采购预期支撑，但近期原油现货升贴水及主产品裂解价差均未进一步走强,或显示强现实因素对油价的上行驱 动城弱。综合考虑俄乌地缘风险短期未超预期，以及美国对欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥及巴西的对等关税上调风 险,我们将本周 ...