行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 现货 ...

原油日报 | 2025-11-20 油价短期受市场情绪主导 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.30美元，收于每桶59.44美元，跌幅为2.14%；1月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.38美元，收于每桶63.51美元，跌幅为2.13%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.60%，报456 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯2025年石油产量预测维持不变，为5.1亿吨；俄罗斯不计划主动减少石油产 量，将坚持欧佩克+协议；燃料价格已趋于稳定，零售燃料价格已开始下降；对俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油的制裁 并未影响俄罗斯的石油产量；俄罗斯可能在2025年底前达到欧佩克+石油产量配额水平。俄罗斯已完全弥补了在欧 佩克+协议下的石油超产情况。（来源：Bloomberg） 昨日，有媒体报道白宫正在制定乌克兰和平计划，此外俄罗斯副总理表示俄罗斯原油产量所有上升，同时宏观方 面的悲观情绪也在加重，尤其是对于美股科技股的下跌担忧在加剧，短期来看油价受到市场情绪的扰动较大，同 时市场还在等待11月21日俄罗斯制裁正式生效后的市场影响。 策略 油价短期震荡偏弱，中 ...

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Core Viewpoint - DBS reported that China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) slightly exceeded expectations in Q3 performance, with a year-on-year profit decline of only 3.9% despite a 15% drop in oil prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's business model demonstrates resilience, making it a preferred stock in the industry [1] - The target price for China Petroleum has been raised from HKD 8.02 to HKD 8.8 [1] - The company is expected to maintain stable profits supported by a healthy oil price level of USD 65 per barrel and a recovery in downstream operations [1] Group 2: Dividend Outlook - The estimated dividend yield for the next two years is projected to be 6% [1]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 3 日 PP：中期震荡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6590 | -1.21% | 294,656 11355 | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | | 价 差 | 01合约基差 | | -90 | -121 | | | 01-05合约价差 | | -84 | -70 | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6430 - | 6520 | 6450 - 6590 | | | 华东 | 6500 - | 6620 | 6530 - 6630 | | | 华南 | 6470 - | 6630 | 6500 - 6650 | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 PP 市场部分下跌。PP 期货盘中下行明显拖累现货市场心态，上游部分石化厂价 ...

Core Insights - Current oil prices are relatively low compared to historical averages, with oil averaging $60 per barrel in 2009, indicating a significant price drop when adjusted for inflation [1][2] - The low oil prices are leading to a decrease in oil demand, creating uncertainty about the future direction of the market [1] - Oil constitutes about one-third of total energy consumption, and its low prices could lead to a tightening of the oil market if demand rebounds [2] Industry Analysis - The current oil market is characterized by low prices, which may not reflect the true demand dynamics, as there is a notable decline in oil demand [1] - The relationship between oil and gas prices suggests that oil remains an essential component of the energy mix, despite its limited role in power generation [2] - If oil prices remain low, there is potential for a resurgence in oil demand, particularly in a context where there is an increasing need for energy [2]

Group 1 - Oil prices decreased by nearly 1% on Monday [1] - The Kurdistan region of Iraq resumed crude oil exports via Turkey over the weekend [1] - OPEC+ is planning another oil output increase in November, which will add to global supplies [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel, respectively, with an increase of $0.9 per barrel compared to last week [1][2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stands at 82 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 42 million barrels, strategic inventory at 41 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 2 million barrels, showing a week-on-week change of -878, -929, +50, and -30 thousand barrels respectively [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.48 million barrels per day, reflecting a decrease of 10 thousand barrels per day [1][2] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. is 418, which is an increase of 2 rigs from the previous week [1][2] - The number of active fracturing fleets in the U.S. is 169, with an increase of 5 fleets [1][2] Refined Oil Products - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. are $85, $98, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.5, +$1.1, and -$5.1 per barrel [3] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are at 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, respectively, with week-on-week changes of -235, +405, and +63 thousand barrels [3] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is 9.41 million, 4.96 million, and 1.90 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -18, -27, and +1 thousand barrels per day [3] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is 8.81 million, 3.62 million, and 1.62 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +30, +24, and -13 thousand barrels per day [3] Trade Dynamics - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 1.6 million, 0.97 million, and 0.81 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +0.07, -0.02, and -0.09 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports are 0.10 million, 0.85 million, and 0.76 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -0.12, -0.54, and -0.42 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports are 0.05 million, 0.24 million, and 0.18 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -0.07, +0.05, and +0.12 million barrels per day [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [4]

Group 1 - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, clearing the way for Cook to attend this week's Fed meeting, which may witness internal divisions within the Fed [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, the U.S. dollar index has fallen, and cryptocurrencies have experienced widespread declines, while gold has reached a new high and oil prices have increased [1] Group 2 - The mainland stock market has risen, with Hong Kong's consumer discretionary, energy, and staple consumer sectors leading the gains, while materials, conglomerates, and real estate construction sectors have declined [1] - Biotech, lithium batteries, and smart terminals have performed well, with southbound funds net buying 14.473 billion HKD [1] - In A-shares, electric equipment, media, and agriculture sectors have seen the largest increases, while conglomerates, telecommunications, and defense industries have declined [1] Group 3 - Non-metallic building materials, energy, and iron ore prices have risen, while the yield on RMB government bonds has slightly increased, and the RMB has appreciated slightly [1]