Report Overview - This is an early report on crude oil and refined oil, focusing on market data, news, inventory, and weekly views [2] 1. Market Data 1.1 Price and Spread Changes from March 23 - 27, 2026 - WTI rose from $88.13 to $99.64, up $5.16 [3] - BRENT increased from $99.94 to $112.57, up $4.56 [3] - SC increased by 7.70, OMAN by 9.34 [3] - BRENT 2 - month spread rose by 1.13, reaching 7.25 [3] - WTI - BRENT spread changed by 0.60, reaching - 12.93 [3] - Domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 270.00 [3] - Japan naphtha - BRT increased by 7.98, reaching 315.61 [3] 1.2 Other Market Indicators - On March 27, 2026, BFO reached 111.68, up 1.9 from March 23 [3] 2. Daily News 2.1 Iran - US Tensions - Iran's Parliament Speaker says armed forces are waiting for US ground operations [3] - US and Israel attacked an Iranian dock near the Strait of Hormuz, causing 5 deaths and 4 injuries [4] - US Vice - President says the US has no intention of staying in Iran and will withdraw soon [4] - US government has discussed seizing Kharg Island [5] 2.2 Revenue Potential of Strait of Hormuz - If Iran sets up a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, its monthly revenue could reach over $800 million, equivalent to 15% - 20% of Iran's monthly oil export revenue in 2024 [4] 3. Weekly Inventory 3.1 EIA Report for the Week of March 20, 2026 - US crude oil exports decreased by 1.576 million barrels per day to 3.322 million barrels per day [5] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.011 million barrels to 13.657 million barrels per day [5] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456 million barrels, a 1.54% increase [5] - US crude oil product four - week average supply was 20.678 million barrels per day, a 2.37% increase compared to the same period last year [5] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained at 415.4 million barrels [5] - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.464 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.73 million barrels per day from the previous week [5] 4. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels. On Friday, due to the tense situation between the US and Iran, the absolute price strengthened again. The Brent month - spread reached a new high, and the Oman crude oil discount weakened significantly. Crude oil spot prices around the world converged [5] - The US has not ruled out a ground offensive, but it's unclear to what extent Trump will approve the Pentagon's plan. The passage of VLCCs through the Strait of Hormuz remains interrupted, and Saudi Arabia has fully shifted to Yanbu Port for exports, with a maximum export volume of 5 million barrels per day. Currently, there is no supply interruption in Saudi Arabia, and the subsequent export situation at Yanbu Port should be monitored [5] - In the refined oil market, the cracking spread of European diesel reached a new high, the refined oil inventory in the European ARA region decreased significantly, and the refined oil inventory in the US increased. Before the passage through the strait is restored, the fundamental supply interruption will continue. With the recent escalation of the situation, the absolute price will rise, but attention should be paid to the price fluctuation risk caused by Trump's TACO [5]

Economic Overview - Pre-market futures are down after a positive close on Wednesday, with the Dow down 394 points, S&P 500 down 59 points, and Nasdaq down 274 points [1] - A light week of economic reports is expected until next week, which is referred to as "Jobs Week" [1] Oil Market Insights - The situation in Iran is impacting oil prices, with a peace plan being discussed by President Trump and Iranian officials, although there are conflicting reports from Iran [2] - Israel's military actions against Iran are focused on dismantling its nuclear program, which may require U.S. ground troops, leading to declining support for the conflict among Americans [3] - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for 20% of global oil supply, has been affected, contributing to a rise in U.S. gasoline prices by approximately $1 per gallon [4] - Spot oil prices have increased significantly, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising 76% from December lows to $94.30 per barrel, and Brent crude up 88% to $107.80 [5] Employment Data - Initial Jobless Claims for last week were reported at 210K, matching expectations and indicating a stable employment market [6] - Continuing Claims fell to 1.819 million, the lowest since May 2024, following a downward revision from the previous week [7]

Market Overview - US stocks opened lower on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.8%, the S&P 500 falling around 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.5% [1] - The market had previously soared on Monday due to optimism surrounding US-Iran discussions, but this sentiment faded after Iranian state media denied direct negotiations [3] Oil Market - Oil prices initially fell sharply due to the potential easing of hostilities but rebounded as fighting continued, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 4% back above $90 per barrel and Brent crude jumping back above $103 [2] Geopolitical Context - Tensions escalated over the weekend, with President Trump warning of potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened, while Iran threatened US assets [4] - Investors are now focusing on upcoming US manufacturing data and the end of earnings season, with GameStop set to report after the market close [4]

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Meeting Notes Industry Overview - The notes pertain to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which influences the broader financial markets, including equities and bonds. Core Insights and Arguments 1. The FOMC decided to maintain the current interest rates, signaling a hawkish stance overall [1] 2. Following the FOMC meeting, both the U.S. stock and bond markets experienced declines, while the U.S. dollar strengthened, surpassing the 100 mark [2] 3. The dot plot indicates that the median forecast for interest rate cuts remains similar to previous projections, with expected cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027, and no cuts anticipated in 2028 [3] 4. There is a narrowing of disagreements among committee members, with the most aggressive stance likely held by member Milan, who advocates for a 100 basis point cut this year [3] 5. The language in the interest rate decision was modified to reflect increased concerns regarding the labor market and inflation, indicating a deterioration in the assessment of the labor market [3] 6. The decision saw only one dissenting vote, with Milan advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3] 7. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) has been revised to show an upward adjustment in GDP and inflation forecasts [3] 8. Powell emphasized that despite inflation concerns, the current economic environment cannot be compared to the stagflation of the 1970s, citing uncertainty regarding the duration and magnitude of oil price increases [3] 9. Powell mentioned that he would serve as interim chair if his successor is not confirmed by the end of his term, and he intends to remain on the board until the investigation concludes transparently [3] 10. The current priority for Federal Reserve policy is inflation over employment, with Powell asserting that there will be no rate cuts without visible progress in reducing inflation [3] 11. The committee will not hastily raise interest rates, despite discussions among members [4][5] 12. Historical decision-making patterns indicate that the Fed has maintained a stable and predictable approach, even during significant economic events, such as the Silicon Valley Bank incident in 2023 [6] 13. The market outlook warns of asymmetric risks, particularly concerning oil prices' impact on inflation, which could disrupt the anticipated easing of monetary policy [6] 14. The potential for inflation to exceed expectations due to rising oil prices from geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S.-Iran conflict, poses a risk to the previously certain easing direction [6] 15. The incoming Fed Chair, Walsh, is expected to have a hawkish stance, potentially reducing the likelihood of a "Fed put" [6] 16. Current equity markets exhibit asymmetric risks, with limited upside potential and significant downside risks stemming from inflationary tightening expectations [7] 17. Additional risks include marginal changes in employment data raising concerns about economic growth and vulnerabilities in private credit leading to potential financial contagion [8] Other Important Content - The notes highlight the Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy amidst evolving economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of monitoring inflation and labor market dynamics closely [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced significant selling pressure, primarily driven by a surge in international oil prices on a day when the Federal Reserve's decisions were anticipated [1]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 407 points, equivalent to a 0.9% drop [1]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.6% [1]. - The Nasdaq Composite also saw a decline of 0.6% [1]. Group 2: Oil Prices - Brent crude oil futures increased by 6.1%, reaching $109.74 per barrel [1]. - WTI crude oil futures rose by 3.2%, reaching $99.27 per barrel [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On March 17, platinum and palladium prices rebounded. The PT2606 contract closed up 4.27% to 552.7 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 2.3% to 407.75 yuan/gram. Macroscopically, the US Treasury Secretary's remarks to soothe the market and the slowdown of the upward trends of oil prices and the US dollar boosted the precious metal prices. However, the US - Iran conflict shows no sign of resolution, oil prices remain high, and the expectation of interest rate cuts continues to weaken, which may continue to suppress the upward space of precious metal prices. Fundamentally, WPIC expects the global platinum market to have a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year, and the imbalance between supply and demand may support the platinum price, but the narrowing gap in 2026 and the possible surplus in the global palladium market may limit the upward space of prices. In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a range - bound trend. After the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear, one can choose to go long on platinum at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of platinum futures main contract is 552.7 yuan/gram, up 3.73% from the previous value; the spot price of platinum (99.95%) is 552 yuan/gram, up 6.36%. The basis of platinum (spot - futures) is - 0.7 yuan/gram, a change of - 94.93%. The closing price of palladium futures main contract is 407.75 yuan/gram, up 2.31%; the spot price of palladium (99.95%) is 408 yuan/gram, up 3.42%. The basis of palladium (spot - futures) is 0.25 yuan/gram, a change of - 106.17% [3] - **International Prices**: The London spot platinum price is 2131.1 US dollars/ounce, up 3.61%; the London spot palladium price is 1601.571 US dollars/ounce, up 1.74%. The NYMEX platinum price is 2121.9 US dollars/ounce, up 3.69%; the NYMEX palladium price is 1613.5 US dollars/ounce, up 2.54% [3] - **Exchange Rate and Spread**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate is 6.8961, down 0.14%. The spread between domestic platinum and London platinum is 18.78 yuan/gram, up 11.94%; the spread between domestic platinum and NYMEX platinum is 21.08 yuan/gram, up 8.62%. The spread between domestic palladium and London palladium is 6.50 yuan/gram, up 80.54%; the spread between domestic palladium and NYMEX palladium is 3.51 yuan/gram, down 7.21% [3] - **Price Ratio**: The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium is 1.3555, with a change of 0.0186; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium is 1.3306, with a change of 0.0241 [3] Inventory and Position Information - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory is 200,716 ounces, with no change; the NYMEX palladium inventory is 582,441 ounces, with no change [3] - **Position**: The total NYMEX platinum position is 68,758, down 1.99%; the non - commercial net long position of NYMEX platinum is 14,690, up 6.20%. The total NYMEX palladium position is 15,679, down 2.57%; the non - commercial net long position of NYMEX palladium is - 156, down 196.89% [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of starting with small investments to overcome psychological barriers and gradually increase investment once market validation is achieved [1] - The current financial environment shows a balanced and slightly loose liquidity, with the central bank conducting a 510 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 115 billion yuan [3] - The overnight oil price fluctuations have caused a slight decline in the stock market, while the 10-year government bond yield has shown minor fluctuations, indicating a complex interaction between different asset classes [5] Group 2 - The article highlights a significant shift in wealth distribution among different age groups since 2020, with the 40-59 age group experiencing the most substantial wealth reduction, while the 60+ age group has seen the largest increase in wealth share [5] - The data indicates that high-net-worth individuals (those with assets over 500 million yuan) have been changing in proportion across age demographics from 2016 to 2025, with notable trends in wealth accumulation among older populations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The February CPI data in the U.S. was "mediocre," with market reactions being relatively calm, shifting focus to how rising oil prices will impact inflation and how the Federal Reserve will balance "stagflation" risks in 2026 [1][6]. Summary by Sections CPI Performance - February U.S. CPI year-on-year was 2.4%, unchanged from the previous value, while month-on-month it increased by 0.3%, showing slight warming. Core CPI year-on-year was 2.5%, also unchanged, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, slightly lower than January's 0.3% [1][6]. - The core goods index rose by 0.08% month-on-month, up from 0.04% in January, while core services decreased to 0.27% from 0.39% in January [1][6]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods saw a slight increase, primarily driven by clothing and used cars. Clothing rose from 0.31% to 1.28% month-on-month, likely due to seasonal changes and new product launches. The decline in used car prices narrowed to -0.38%, indicating potential future inflation in vehicle prices [9][14]. - Core services experienced a decline, mainly due to transportation services. The largest component, housing (Shelter), remained stable at 0.2%. Medical services increased from 0.3% to 0.6%, reflecting rising labor costs. Transportation services dropped significantly from 1.4% in January to 0.2% in February, influenced by the base effect of January's airfare prices [14][2]. Market Reaction - Following the CPI data release, market reactions were "calm." The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield only fluctuated by 1-2 basis points, continuing its upward trend. The dollar and gold prices also showed weak responses, indicating that market focus remains on oil prices and geopolitical situations in the Middle East, with concerns about future inflation risks [2][6]. Future Outlook - The impact of high oil prices since March is expected to significantly affect PPI and overall CPI, with limited effects on core CPI. It is estimated that a 10% increase in oil prices could raise overall CPI by 24-28 basis points and core CPI by 4-7 basis points. The relationship between oil prices and U.S. PPI has a high coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.57 [20][21]. - The current resilience of domestic demand in the U.S. is weaker than in 2021-2022, suggesting that the current high oil prices may have a more pronounced negative effect on household incomes [20][32]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for 2026 have been revised from "1-2 cuts" to "at most 1 cut," with risks stemming from AI and private credit sectors. The Fed will need to balance the risks of "stagflation" and inflation, as rising oil prices increase inflation while also exerting downward pressure on the economy [32][34].

Economic Overview - Since the fourth quarter of last year, U.S. inflation has consistently underperformed market expectations, with CPI and core CPI remaining at low levels of 2.4% and 2.5% year-on-year as of February this year[7][10] - The core issue behind the weaker-than-expected inflation is insufficient demand support, particularly among middle and low-income groups whose financial situations have not improved significantly[10][11] Inflation Risks and Trends - The overall inflation risk in the U.S. is expected to remain controllable in 2026, with potential short-term disturbances from tariffs and geopolitical tensions, but lacking a solid foundation for sustained increases[11][30] - Inflation may see a mild rebound in the first half of the year but is expected to gradually ease in the second half, with the Federal Reserve likely to lower interest rates 1-2 times throughout the year[51][53] Tariff and Cost Impacts - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. peaked at 16% but is expected to decrease to 13.7% as the government shifts to a more complex tariff framework[31][33] - Tariffs have already transmitted 40%-76% of their cost impacts to consumer prices, with the remaining untransmitted cost space becoming limited[36] Geopolitical and Oil Price Effects - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a significant rebound in oil prices, which have risen from below $60 to over $90 per barrel, but the inflationary impact of oil prices is expected to remain manageable[38][42] - Even if oil prices average $80 per barrel this year, the impact on CPI is estimated to be only 0.3-0.4 percentage points[42] Fiscal Policy and Consumer Demand - Current fiscal policies are not expected to provide substantial support for middle and low-income groups, limiting overall demand and inflation recovery[47] - The political landscape complicates the implementation of large-scale fiscal support measures, making it difficult to improve consumer purchasing power significantly[47][49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On March 11, platinum and palladium prices were generally weak and volatile. The PT2606 contract closed down 0.19% to 565.55 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 0.07% to 424.25 yuan/gram. - At the macro - level, multiple parties signaled a cooling of conflicts and introduced possible measures to stabilize oil prices, which eased inflation risks and supported the stabilization of platinum and palladium prices. However, due to the unresolved issue in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may fluctuate, so platinum and palladium prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. - Fundamentally, the WPIC expects the global platinum market to face a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year. The imbalance between supply and demand may support the platinum price, but the narrowing deficit in 2026 may limit its upside. The global palladium market may still have a surplus, with a weaker fundamental situation than platinum. - In summary, platinum and palladium are expected to remain volatile in the short term. After the geopolitical situation in the Middle East becomes clear, investors can consider going long on platinum on dips or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [6]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 565.55, up 0.53% from the previous value [4]. - Platinum (99.95%) spot price: 557.5, up 0.63% [4]. - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - 8.05, down 5.85% [4]. - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 424.25, up 0.17% [4]. - Palladium (99.95%) spot price: 420, down 0.59% [4]. - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - 4.25, up 304.76% [4]. International Prices (15:00, dollars/ounce) - London spot platinum: 2192.154, up 3.78% [4]. - London spot palladium: 1666.179, up 3.77% [4]. - NYMEX platinum: 2188.5, up 2.55% [4]. - NYMEX palladium: 1683, up 3.00% [4]. Internal - External 15:00 Price Differences (yuan/gram) - Difference between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum: 16.68, down 49.72% [4]. - Difference between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum: 17.60, down 36.56% [4]. - Difference between Guangzhou palladium and London palladium: 7.08, down 66.53% [5]. - Difference between Guangzhou palladium and NYMEX palladium: 2.86, down 79.61% [5]. Ratios - Platinum - palladium ratio in Guangzhou Futures Exchange: 1.3331, up 0.0049 [5]. - London spot platinum - palladium ratio: 1.3157, up 0.0002 [5]. Inventories (troy ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: 205098, unchanged [5]. - NYMEX palladium inventory: 582441, down 0.17% [5]. Positions - NYMEX total platinum position: 72351, down 3.04% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: 13832, up 4.47% [5]. - NYMEX total palladium position: 16423, down 2.01% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: 161, down 75.75% [5].