With this low prices. There's a lot of oil demand that seems to be vanishing. I mean, there have been they are literally and we don't really know where it's going.Right. And but oil is cheap. And you remember oil averaged $60 a barrel in 2009.We are in 2025. Okay. And again, it was the nominal average.If you you know, if you adjust for inflation. Oil actually pretty cheap is way too pretty was in 2009. So even even I think we averaged 60 I think was in 2006 060.So we have relatively low oil prices compared ...

Group 1 - Oil prices decreased by nearly 1% on Monday [1] - The Kurdistan region of Iraq resumed crude oil exports via Turkey over the weekend [1] - OPEC+ is planning another oil output increase in November, which will add to global supplies [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel, respectively, with an increase of $0.9 per barrel compared to last week [1][2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stands at 82 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 42 million barrels, strategic inventory at 41 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 2 million barrels, showing a week-on-week change of -878, -929, +50, and -30 thousand barrels respectively [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.48 million barrels per day, reflecting a decrease of 10 thousand barrels per day [1][2] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. is 418, which is an increase of 2 rigs from the previous week [1][2] - The number of active fracturing fleets in the U.S. is 169, with an increase of 5 fleets [1][2] Refined Oil Products - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. are $85, $98, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.5, +$1.1, and -$5.1 per barrel [3] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are at 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, respectively, with week-on-week changes of -235, +405, and +63 thousand barrels [3] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is 9.41 million, 4.96 million, and 1.90 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -18, -27, and +1 thousand barrels per day [3] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is 8.81 million, 3.62 million, and 1.62 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +30, +24, and -13 thousand barrels per day [3] Trade Dynamics - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 1.6 million, 0.97 million, and 0.81 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +0.07, -0.02, and -0.09 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports are 0.10 million, 0.85 million, and 0.76 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -0.12, -0.54, and -0.42 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports are 0.05 million, 0.24 million, and 0.18 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -0.07, +0.05, and +0.12 million barrels per day [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [4]

Group 1 - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, clearing the way for Cook to attend this week's Fed meeting, which may witness internal divisions within the Fed [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, the U.S. dollar index has fallen, and cryptocurrencies have experienced widespread declines, while gold has reached a new high and oil prices have increased [1] Group 2 - The mainland stock market has risen, with Hong Kong's consumer discretionary, energy, and staple consumer sectors leading the gains, while materials, conglomerates, and real estate construction sectors have declined [1] - Biotech, lithium batteries, and smart terminals have performed well, with southbound funds net buying 14.473 billion HKD [1] - In A-shares, electric equipment, media, and agriculture sectors have seen the largest increases, while conglomerates, telecommunications, and defense industries have declined [1] Group 3 - Non-metallic building materials, energy, and iron ore prices have risen, while the yield on RMB government bonds has slightly increased, and the RMB has appreciated slightly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to geopolitical premiums and high refinery crack spreads, despite a downward trend in refined oil demand and the possibility of OPEC increasing production [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical premiums and high refinery activity are currently supporting the oil market [1] - There is a prevailing expectation of weaker supply and demand in the medium term, which is putting pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: OPEC Influence - OPEC may consider further production increases in its upcoming meeting, which could lead to downward pressure on oil prices [1] - The market sentiment indicates that low inventories in major pricing regions and frequent geopolitical events are supporting current oil prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase in this period's crude oil inventory exceeded market expectations, leading to a decline in international oil prices. In the fourth quarter, crude oil consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season. If the OPEC+ production increase plan continues, the market may face supply surplus pressure, which will limit the upside potential of oil prices [1] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Product Demand - In the four weeks ending August 29, the average daily total demand for refined oil products in the United States was 21.282 million barrels, 2.5% higher than the same period last year. The four - week average daily demand for motor gasoline was 9.05 million barrels, 0.8% lower than the same period last year, and the four - week average daily demand for distillate oil was 3.894 million barrels, 4.2% higher than the same period last year [1] 3.2 Inventory Data - As of August 29, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 420.707 million barrels, an increase of 2.415 million barrels (0.58%) from the previous week. The Cushing crude oil inventory was 24.222 million barrels, an increase of 1.59 million barrels (7.03%). The U.S. gasoline inventory was 218.539 million barrels, a decrease of 3.795 million barrels (-1.71%), and the U.S. distillate oil inventory was 115.923 million barrels, an increase of 1.681 million barrels (1.47%). The total U.S. oil product inventory was 1.26582 billion barrels, an increase of 7.102 million barrels (0.56%), and the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 404.71 million barrels, an increase of 509,000 barrels (0.13%) [1][2] 3.3 Production and Trade Data - The U.S. refinery utilization rate was 94.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points (-0.32%). The U.S. crude oil production was 13.423 million barrels per day, a decrease of 16,000 barrels per day (-0.12%). The U.S. crude oil imports were 6.742 million barrels per day, an increase of 508,000 barrels per day (8.15%), and the U.S. crude oil exports were 3.884 million barrels per day, an increase of 74,000 barrels per day (1.94%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for CNOOC (00883) to HKD 23 and RMB 30 for A-shares, primarily due to improved medium to long-term earnings per share and free cash flow outlook [1] Group 1: Target Price and Ratings - The H-share rating for CNOOC has been upgraded from "Underweight" to "Overweight," while the A-share rating remains "Overweight," reflecting a projected increase in oil prices by USD 5 per barrel [1] - CNOOC's A/H shares have underperformed compared to China Petroleum (00857) A/H shares by 13-22% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Market Signals and Dividend Strategy - The increase in OPEC production is viewed as a signal of demand recovery and healthy global inventory levels, rather than a sign of OPEC disarray or a price war [1] - CNOOC's unexpected willingness to align its dividend yield with that of China Petroleum, which has successfully decoupled from oil prices, may help limit its stock price downside, even if oil prices could drop to USD 55 per barrel by Q1 2026 [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core View - The overall consumption in the US during the peak season this year is weak, and the market has digested the expected interest - rate cut in the US to some extent. There is no driving force for oil prices currently. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate and build a bottom, and may decline again in the medium term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $63.31, closing at $63.86, with a high of $64.23, a low of $62.95, a daily increase of 0.96%, and a trading volume of 17.84 million hands. Brent's opening price was $66.85, closing at $67.20, with a high of $67.51, a low of $66.37, a daily increase of 0.75%, and a trading volume of 32.39 million hands. SC's opening price was 482.5 yuan/barrel, closing at 481.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 483.6 yuan/barrel, a low of 478.4 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.97%, and a trading volume of 9.34 million hands [6]. - **Analysis**: As of the week ending on the 22nd, the inventories of crude oil and refined oil in the US decreased, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the US peak travel season is coming to an end, and the refinery operating rate has slightly decreased. There may be insufficient positive factors for oil prices in the later period. Even with lower gasoline prices this summer compared to last year, consumption has not improved significantly [6]. 2. Industry News - Hungary's MOL: After the restart of the Druzhba pipeline, crude oil supplies have reached Hungary and Slovakia [7]. - White House Trade Advisor Navarro: India can get a 25% tariff discount if it stops buying Russian oil [7]. - Market news: Russia will extend the full - scale gasoline export ban until September [7]. - EIA report: Last week, the US imported about 74,000 barrels per day of crude oil from Venezuela, the first weekly import since July [7]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent prices, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories. The data sources are Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [9][11][19][22]

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures was $66.9 and $63.1 per barrel, reflecting a change of +$0.7 and -$0.2 from the previous week [1][2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, and Cushing crude oil inventory were reported at 82 million, 42 million, 40 million, and 2 million barrels, with changes of -579, -601, +22, and +42 thousand barrels respectively [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production was 13.38 million barrels per day, an increase of +60 thousand barrels per day from the previous week [2][3] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. was 411, down by 1 rig, while the active fracturing fleet was 167, down by 2 units [2][3] Refined Products Market - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. were $89, $95, and $89 per barrel, with changes of +$1.6, +$0.5, and -$5.1 respectively [3][4] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were reported at 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, with changes of -272, +234, and -45 thousand barrels respectively [3][4] - Production levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were 9.55 million, 5.33 million, and 1.96 million barrels per day, with changes of -26, +19, and -1 thousand barrels per day respectively [3][4] - Consumption levels for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were 8.84 million, 3.97 million, and 1.90 million barrels per day, with changes of -16, +27, and +7 thousand barrels per day respectively [3][4] Trade Dynamics - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 0.9 million, 1.02 million, and 0.93 million barrels per day, with changes of -16, +19, and +35 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 0.12 million, 1.15 million, and 1.03 million barrels per day, with changes of +2, -29, and -31 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports were 0.1 million, 0.22 million, and 0.12 million barrels per day, with changes of +7, -4, and -11 thousand barrels per day respectively [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Development [4]