热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】期货盘面：BU 2604主力合约收盘微跌。收盘价3357，较上个交易日收盘价环比微跌0.12%，盘中 最高触及3372，最低3328。06远月合约环比微跌0.06%。 【2】现货基本面：截止2月26日，华东地区重交沥青市场高端价委3320元/吨，环比持平；重交沥青市 场低端价为3280元/吨，环比持平。相对来说，高低端现货价差值40元/吨，现货市场价波动区间相对稳 定。盘面价格相对高端价升水38元/吨，主要是地缘推升 油价情绪，沥青盘面情绪释放。对于实际现货情况来看，节后道路施工率季节性回升，随着天气转好， 下游需求或有望从此前的一般转入良好，对沥青基本面形成支撑。 【3】市场新闻：①在第三轮2月26日谈判前，有关美方在伊核协议内容上的一条硬性要求遭到披露，即 特朗普政府要求伊朗在未来任何核协议中接受协议"无限期有效"，不得设定到期条款。2月26日，新一 轮美伊谈判开始举行。 【4】短期来看，近期委内浮舱有所上行，具体目的地尚未明朗，但概率性流向印度市场偏多。鉴于美 国介入委内后出口端表现合法增加，中国也将与 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 如若地缘情绪消散，可逢低多远月。原油回归到宽松基本面计价，沥青尚且之后原料风险支撑，推荐3- 6反套，同时可根据行情选择多裂解差。 主力 K 线图 基本面数据 - 沥青主力合约 K 线图 图1 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】期货盘面：BU 2604主力合约收盘微跌。收盘价3358，较上个交易日收盘价环比微跌0.5%，盘中 最高触及3373，最低3341。06远月合约环比微跌0.24%。 【2】现货基本面：截止2月25日，华东地区重交沥青市场高端价委3320元/吨，环比下跌0.9%；重交沥 青市场低端价为3280元/吨，环比持平。相对来说，高低端现货价差值40元/吨，现货市场价波动区间相 对稳定。盘面价格相对高端价升水38元/吨，主要是地缘推升 油价情绪，沥青盘面情绪释放。对于实际现货情况来看，节后道路施工率季节性回升，随着天气转好， 下游需求或有望从此前的一般转入良好，对沥青基本面形成支撑。 【3】市场新闻：①美国军方拦截了载有192.8万桶委内瑞拉Merey原油的VLCC Bertha号，这是自12月以 来第九起与制裁相关的船只扣押事件 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】期货盘面：BU 2604主力合约小幅收涨。收盘价3348，较上个交易日收盘价环比涨幅1.67%，盘中 最高触及3408，最低3359。06远月合约环比涨幅2.24%。 【2】现货基本面：供应端：截止至2月13日当周，国内炼厂产量39万吨，环比下跌11%。需求端：大样 本企业销售量25.72万吨，环比下跌23%。库存端：社库+厂库累计815万吨，环比上涨7%。利润端：不 扣除消费税抵扣的话，生产毛利将近-95元/吨，环比上周近-83元/吨回落。隆众调研显示，目前地炼参 考价3270-3330元/吨，主营参考价3220-3240元/吨，市场基准价参考3300元/吨。地缘推升油价情绪，沥 青盘面情绪释放，但实际现货下游需求相对一般。 【3】短期展望： 委油消息：①美国大型石油企业正在开采委内瑞拉原油，目前其产能利用率已经提升 至约35%；②自美国对委动武以来，多家印度炼油企业已购买委内瑞拉旗舰级梅雷原油，印度政府还要 求国有炼油商考虑增加购买委内瑞拉和美国石油。 主力 K 线图 沥青主力合约 K 线图 图1 月K ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that despite initial market expectations of a significant oversupply of crude oil, prices may remain higher than anticipated, with recent events not fully explaining the strength in prices [1] Group 1: Current Oil Prices - Brent crude oil is currently hovering around $68 per barrel, significantly above the expected price of approximately $50 per barrel in an oversupply environment [1] - Citigroup has long anticipated an average oil price of $60 per barrel for this year [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Prices - Several factors contributing to the current price stability above $60 per barrel include production disruptions in Kazakhstan, severe winter weather in the U.S., geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and tightened restrictions on U.S. purchases of Russian oil [1] - As the weather in the U.S. warms and Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field resumes production, oil prices may ease, potentially narrowing the price gap between Brent and Dubai crude [1] Group 3: Inventory Trends - Global and U.S. oil inventory data shows a decline in crude oil inventories, while refined product inventories are on the rise [1] - The winter storm "Fern" has impacted much of the U.S., affecting recent data and leading to increased heating demand, which may exacerbate diesel supply tightness [1] - Refining activities have been disrupted due to freezing conditions, impacting U.S. crude oil production, and oil trade along the Gulf Coast may also be affected [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the zinc market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remaining low, which supports zinc prices [1][2] - Overnight London zinc prices rose by 0.22%, closing at $3359 per ton, with a trading volume of 11,350 lots and an increase in open interest by 3,054 lots [1] - The domestic zinc market is facing weak demand as some downstream enterprises prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to a less optimistic demand outlook [2] Group 2 - The processing fees for domestic mainstream zinc concentrates are reported to be between 1,100 to 1,500 yuan per metal ton, indicating a tight supply situation [2] - The social inventory of refined zinc in major markets increased slightly to 109,900 tons, reflecting limited pressure on zinc prices [2] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are expected to increase volatility in the zinc market, with potential for wider price fluctuations [2]

消息面上，近期油价、汇率波动。据华创证券研报，根据各家航司2025年半年报披露，10%的油价变动 对应三大航年化成本影响约43~51亿，1%汇率波动，对三大航影响在1.3-2.6亿。国泰海通证券近期指， 预计2026年春运需求将保持旺盛；民航将严控干线市场航司增加与增班，春运加班将较为有限；春节拼 假效应将弱于往年，节前节后客流集中或有利航司收益管理。 智通财经APP获悉，航空股全线回调，截至发稿，东方航空(00670)跌5.17%，报5.5港元；中国国航 (00753)跌4.95%，报7.11港元；南方航空(01055)跌3.11%，报5.92港元；国泰航空(00293)跌1.51%，报 12.42港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices remained stable on Friday, with both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate showing minimal movement due to reduced concerns over a potential U.S. strike on Iran [1] Group 1 - Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil prices moved only a few cents from their previous closing prices [1] - The likelihood of a U.S. military action against Iran has decreased, contributing to the stability in oil prices [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals experienced a collective surge, with spot gold rising to $4,592, marking a 1.86% increase and setting a new historical high [1] - Spot silver increased by 3.36%, while platinum rose by 4.05%, surpassing $2,360 per ounce [1] - Year-to-date performance shows London gold up 6.36%, London silver up 16.14%, and spot platinum up 14.58% [2] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - Oil prices have risen for the third consecutive day, with Brent crude futures increasing nearly 6% over the last two days, reaching close to $64 per barrel [3] - WTI crude futures rose by 0.83%, approaching $60 per barrel [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Global geopolitical risks are escalating, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with reports of significant military actions [5] - In Iran, recent unrest has resulted in the deaths of 111 security personnel, prompting a national mourning period [5] - Tensions regarding Greenland have been highlighted, with European leaders criticizing the U.S. for its threatening remarks towards the territory [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley estimates that after Maduro's departure, Venezuela's oil production may experience a short-term shock, potentially declining by 50% [1] - If political and operational stability is restored, production could quickly recover, with the potential to reach 1.4 million barrels per day within two years and 2.5 million barrels per day in the next decade, compared to the current production of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The impact on Chinese oil companies is limited, as while Venezuelan crude is expected to account for 4% of China's total crude imports by 2025, most of it is processed by independent or small refineries rather than major listed companies like Sinopec or PetroChina [1] - Sinopec and CNOOC do not have commercial assets in Venezuela, and the loss of Venezuelan crude would have a limited effect on China's refining industry due to the availability of alternative crude sources [1] Group 3 - The company is optimistic about PetroChina, as it has successfully decoupled from oil prices through its local natural gas business, with expected dividends of 0.26 yuan in the second half of the year [1] - The lower oil prices and interest rate environment may accelerate the recovery of oil-based chemical stocks, with a "buy" rating assigned to Hengli Petrochemical [1] - Due to weak short-term profit prospects, Sinopec has been given a "neutral" rating, with plans to reassess after the clarity of its "14th Five-Year Plan" strategy [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of oil prices is weak, and the market's long - position funds are lackluster. The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Specifically, the prices of crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to be in a state of oscillation. [1][2][4][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views 1.1 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the price center of oil prices dropped again. The WTI February contract closed down $1.19 to $57.13 per barrel, a decline of 2.04%. The Brent March contract closed down $1.06 to $60.70 per barrel, a decline of 1.72%. The SC2602 contract closed at 426.1 yuan per barrel, down 1.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.28%. - API data shows that last week, U.S. API crude oil inventories decreased by 2.766 million barrels, compared with an increase of 1.747 million barrels in the previous week. API Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 665,000 barrels, with the previous value being an increase of 84,500 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 4.41 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.926 million barrels. - The U.S. and Venezuela are discussing the export of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. There is an expectation that Venezuelan oil supply and logistics may be re - structured, and the total supply is expected to increase. [1] 1.2 Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.73% to 2,479 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.27% to 2,925 yuan per ton. - In the supply side, Singapore is expected to receive a stable arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes and blending components in the next few weeks, which will continuously increase the local inventory. The high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore will also continue to increase. It is expected that the overall fuel oil supply in Singapore will be in surplus in January. - In the demand side, the bunkering demand for 0.5% sulfur marine fuel is weak due to holidays, while the high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering demand remains strong. [2] 1.3 Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.35% to 3,144 yuan per ton. - The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports has remained stable in the short term. The raw material supply of domestic refineries in January is not directly affected by the U.S. - Venezuela geopolitical event, but there are fewer cargoes in January - February. The far - month discount quotation of diluted asphalt has rebounded slightly, and there is uncertainty in future raw material supply. - The release of winter storage contracts by major refineries provides some bottom support for the market. It is expected that the asphalt price will be stable and slightly stronger. [2][4] 1.4 Polyester - TA605 closed at 5,150 yuan per ton yesterday, up 2.06%. EG2605 closed at 3,838 yuan per ton, up 2.84%. The PX futures main contract 603 closed at 7,336 yuan per ton, up 1.75%. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are individually differentiated, with an average sales estimate of about 50%. There is a game between the reality and expectation of PX. The polyester operating load may further decline in January - February. The supply of ethylene glycol has slightly narrowed, the demand has weakened, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate. [4] 1.5 Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 rose 260 yuan per ton to 16,050 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 205 yuan per ton to 13,010 yuan per ton. - As of the week of January 2, the general trade inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 451,200 tons, an increase of 17,300 tons from the previous period, an increase of 3.99%. The inventory in the bonded area of Qingdao was 93,100 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from the previous period, an increase of 8.89%. - The precipitation in the producing areas has eased, the overseas peak - production season has more than one month left, the raw material prices are still supported, the downstream tire demand has weakened, and the end - of - year automobile policies are waiting for new policies. It is expected that the rubber price will oscillate. [4][6] 1.6 Methanol - On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,268 yuan per ton. The supply in January is expected to increase slightly, and the import volume will decline from the high level. In terms of demand, the Ningbo Fude plant is expected to be under maintenance until mid - January, but the new Shandong Lianhong plant is operating normally, and the total olefin demand is expected to have some support. - The decline in Iranian shipments will lead to a decline in arrivals in January, which will support the price, while the profit of MTO plants is currently being continuously compressed, which may form a negative feedback. It is expected that methanol will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. [6] 1.7 Polyolefin - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6,180 - 6,380 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, there will be some temporary maintenance and shutdown actions in some upstream plants in January, especially PDH plants, and there are no new production capacity investment plans, so the supply is expected to decrease slightly. - In terms of demand, in early January, it will be supported by post - New Year's Day replenishment and pre - Spring Festival order rush. In late January, downstream factories will gradually shut down. It is expected that the polyolefin will still oscillate at the bottom. [6][8] 1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the prices of the PVC market in East, North, and South China all increased. The overall supply remains at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand has slowed down. The 05 contract is still at a large premium. The PVC market shows a structure of weak reality and strong expectation, and the upward space is limited. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level oscillation. [8] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides daily data monitoring on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for multiple varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3. Market News - PVM Oil Company's Tamas Varga said it is too early to assess the impact of Maduro's arrest on the oil supply - demand balance, but it is obvious that oil supply will be sufficient in 2026. A December survey of market participants showed that respondents expect oil prices to face downward pressure in 2026 due to increased supply and weak demand. - API data shows the changes in U.S. API crude oil inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, gasoline inventories, and distillate inventories last week. [12] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report provides line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][16][18] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report provides line charts of the basis of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [31][33][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides line charts of the spreads between different contracts for multiple energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [42][44][47] 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report provides line charts of the spreads between different varieties and the ratios of different varieties for multiple energy and chemical products, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [58][60][62] 4.5 Production Profits - The report provides line charts of the production profits and processing fees of multiple energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE production profit, PP production profit, PTA processing fee, etc. [66][68][69] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the research team members, including the deputy director of the research institute Zhong Meiyan, the energy and chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, including their educational background, honors, and work experience. [71][72][73] 6. Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127. [76]