至于对中国油企的影响，该行指，虽然委内瑞拉原油在2025年占中国原油进口总量4%，但由于美国制 裁，其中大部分由独立炼厂或小型炼厂加工，而非中石化或中石油等上市公司。另外，中石化及中海油 在委内瑞拉并无商业资产。若中国真的失去委内瑞拉原油，对中国的炼油业影响亦有限，因仍有其他原 油可取代。 摩根大通估算，马杜罗离开委内瑞拉后，当地石油产量可能会经历短暂冲击，产量或下跌50%。不过， 若政治及营运等恢复稳定，生产将迅速复苏，当地产量有机会在两年内恢复至每日140万桶，并在未来 十年达到每日250万桶，而目前产量仅为每日80万至90万桶。 股份方面，该行看好中石油，因其通过本地天然气业务成功与油价脱钩，料下半年股息可达0.26元。另 外，较低的油价及利率环境亦可能加速油基化工股的复苏，该行予恒力石化"增持"评级。基于短期盈利 前景疲弱，该行予中石化"中性"评级，待其"十五五"规划策略更清晰后将重新评估。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心再度回落，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘下跌 1.19 美元至 | | | | 57.13 美元/桶，跌幅 2.04%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.06 美元 | | | | 至 60.70 美元/桶，跌幅 1.72%。SC2602 以 426.1 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 1.2 元/桶，跌幅为 0.28%。库存数据方面，API 数据显示，上周， | | | | 美国 API 原油库存减少 276.6 万桶，之前一周为增加 174.7 万桶。 | | | | API 库欣原油库存增加 66.5 万桶，前值为增加 84.5 桶。成品油汽 | | | | 油库存增加 441 万桶，前值为增加 624.8 万桶、馏分油库存增加 | | | | 492.6 万桶，前值为增加 97.7 万桶。消息称美国与委内瑞拉正在 | | | 原油 | 商讨将委内瑞拉的原油出口至美国一事。1 月 7 日美国总统特朗 | 震荡 | | | 普 ...

第一财经每日早间精选热点新闻，点击「听新闻」，一键收听。 【今日推荐】 特朗普威胁委内瑞拉代总统：若不正确行事 将付出更惨痛代价 当地时间1月4日，央视记者获悉，美国总统特朗普在一则当日刊发的电话采访中对委内瑞拉代总统罗德里格斯发出威胁称，如果代行总统职权的委内瑞拉副 总统罗德里格斯"不正确行事"，她可能将付出比委内瑞拉总统马杜罗"更沉重的代价"。此外，特朗普还暗示，其他一些国家也可能成为美国干预的对象。他 再次强调称，"美国需要格陵兰岛，这是肯定的。" 丹麦首相：美国应停止继续威胁"吞并格陵兰岛" 当地时间4日，丹麦首相弗雷泽里克森发表声明，强烈要求美国停止继续威胁"吞并格陵兰岛"。弗雷泽里克森在声明中表示，美国无权吞并构成丹麦的任何 一个地区，当前讨论"美国需要接管格陵兰岛"这一议题"毫无意义"。 2026年育儿补贴今天开始申领 据央视新闻，记者今天（5日）从国家卫生健康委了解到，2026年度育儿补贴今天正式开始申领，凡是符合申领条件的婴幼儿，其申领人今天就可以通过支 付宝、微信平台的"育儿补贴"小程序，还有婴幼儿户籍所在省份的政务服务平台育儿补贴申领专区线上申领，也可以到户籍所在地的相关部门线下申请办 ...

来源：中国能源网 后市来看，投资者正在密切关注俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的和平进程的发展动向，以及这些发展可能对未来 油价产生的影响，此外，EIA库存数据等关键市场数据即将发布，市场观望情绪升温，消息面或指向不 稳。元旦假期临近，汽油终端消耗尚有一定支撑，柴油需求仍存持续转淡预期。即将步入新一年度销售 周期，部分单位或将提前布局首月"开门红"，销售政策或趋于灵活。综合来看，短期利好支撑不足，国 内油价或继续承压运行。（金联创成品油分析师：王珊） 基本面缺乏支撑，近期成品油批发价格涨后回落。前期原油连涨支撑下，加上主营单位考虑到年末销售 任务完成后销售政策以保证利润优先，汽柴油价格顺势上涨。但汽柴油需求表现不佳，尤其柴油随着气 温下降，北方基建、工程开工率明显下滑，行情缺乏成交支撑，地炼方面年末多保持低库存运行，价格 跌多涨少，周边低价资源增加，随着原油近日回调，主营价格再度转跌，中下游基本维持刚需操作，市 场购销气氛清淡。 近期的地缘政治紧张气氛扭转了国际油市的下行趋势，潜在的供应中断在帮助油价从12月16日创下的近 五年低点开始回升。美国拦截多艘委内瑞拉油轮引发投资者对地缘局势的担忧，此外，俄乌局势方面， 此前美乌 ...

Group 1: Core View - The LPG futures price declined due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warehouse receipts. The domestic civil gas price also dropped. The external paper market first rose and then fell, with the FEI and CP spreads strengthening and the MB spread weakening. The oil - gas ratio declined, and the domestic - foreign spread weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. Overall, Middle Eastern supplies are tight, and winter prices are unlikely to fall significantly. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH start - up under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse receipts [4] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Changes - Civil gas prices: In East China, it was 4398 (-10); in Shandong, it was 4410 (-30); in South China, it was 4490 (+30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4600 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China [4] - Basis daily change: 84 (-6); 01 - 02 spread: 124 (+0); 03 - 04 spread: -208 (-2). As of 22:00, FEI was 509 (+1) and CP was 501 (-2) dollars/ton [4] Futures - related Data - LPG futures basis was 265 (+122), 01 - 02 spread was 84 (+5), 03 - 04 spread was -223 (-12), and warehouse receipts were 5476 lots (+865) [4] Market Spread Data - PG - CP dropped to 71 (-28), PG - FEI dropped to 65 (-14). The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7), and the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively [4] Supply - related Data - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, port inventory increased by 3.22%, external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. The PDH operating rate was 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report focuses on the asphalt market, indicating that the price of asphalt is experiencing a rebound in oil prices and narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength of asphalt is neutral, with a value of 0 [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2601, the yesterday's closing price was 2,948 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 2,936 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.41%. The trading volume was 104,501 lots, a decrease of 25,234 lots, and the open interest was 90,743 lots, a decrease of 13,629 lots. For BU2602, the yesterday's closing price was 2,959 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the night - session closing price was 2,954 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.17%. The trading volume was 104,946 lots, a decrease of 2,447 lots, and the open interest was 180,668 lots, an increase of 7,587 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 6,060 lots, with no change [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 01) was - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 01 - 02 inter - period spread was - 11 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shandong - South China spread was - 70, an increase of 40; the East China - South China spread was 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 2,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of December 4, the refinery operating rate was 34.40%, a decrease of 0.80% compared to December 1, and the refinery inventory rate was 27.00%, an increase of 0.99% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Production**: In the week from November 28 to December 4, 2025, the weekly total domestic asphalt production was 505,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons (2.7%) compared to the previous week and a decrease of 15,000 tons (2.9%) year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to December was 29.017 million tons, an increase of 2.166 million tons (8.1%) year - on - year [10]. - **Inventory**: As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 626,000 tons, unchanged from December 1. The inventory in the East China region increased significantly. The inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.055 million tons, a decrease of 0.6% compared to December 1, with obvious destocking in the East China region [10].

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: For BU2601, the opening price was 3042 yuan/ton, closing at 3045 yuan/ton, with a high of 3066 yuan/ton, a low of 3025 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.13%, and a trading volume of 18.21 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3061 yuan/ton, closing at 3068 yuan/ton, with a high of 3085 yuan/ton, a low of 3048 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03%, and a trading volume of 3.74 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Today, the asphalt spot price in Shandong slightly increased, while prices in Northeast, North China, South China, and Sichuan and Chongqing areas decreased. Other regions' prices were relatively stable. Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residue oil, and Yunnan Petrochemical plans to start maintenance in the middle of the month, with the operating rate expected to slightly decline. On the demand side, demand in the northern regions has significantly shrunk. Snow and rain in the Northwest, Northeast, and northern North China have reduced road asphalt demand to zero. In North China, Shandong, and surrounding areas, the temperature will drop below freezing, leading to the suspension of road projects and a seasonal decline in rigid demand. Rain in the Northwest and eastern Southwest has also affected project construction, with demand continuing to decline [6] Operation Suggestions - With no support for oil prices and weakening asphalt demand, the price center is expected to have further downward space. Consider short - selling [7] Group 3: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3030 - 3520 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to Hongrun stopping asphalt loading, Dongming switching to producing residue oil with limited shipments, and Hualong refinery limiting shipments, the available spot resources in Shandong tightened, driving up the low - end prices [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3090 - 3210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Market demand remained stable, with some warehouses having relatively stable shipments. Despite entering the traditional construction season in the southern market, demand did not improve significantly. Traders were still bearish, and social inventory quotes were slightly lowered [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][18][21][23]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak; Medium - term: Bearish allocation, short the spread between different contract months [3] 2. Core View - Short - term oil prices are significantly affected by market sentiment. Media reports of a Ukrainian peace plan, an increase in Russian crude oil production, and macro - pessimistic sentiment, especially concerns about the decline of US tech stocks, have all contributed to the market sentiment. The market is also waiting for the impact of the formal implementation of Russian sanctions on November 21 [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price Movements**: On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price dropped $1.30 to $59.44 per barrel, a 2.14% decline; the January - delivery Brent crude oil futures price in London fell $1.38 to $63.51 per barrel, a 2.13% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.60% at 456 yuan per barrel [1] - **Russian Oil Situation**: Russia's 2025 oil production forecast remains unchanged at 510 million tons. Russia does not plan to actively cut oil production and will adhere to the OPEC+ agreement. Fuel prices have stabilized, and retail fuel prices have started to decline. Sanctions on Russian oil companies have not affected production, and Russia may reach the OPEC+ oil production quota by the end of 2025. Russia has fully compensated for over - production under the OPEC+ agreement [1] - **Saudi Oil Data**: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September reached a seven - month high of 6.46 million barrels per day, slightly higher than August's 6.407 million barrels per day. Its crude oil production in September hit a two - and - a - half - year peak of 9.966 million barrels per day, the highest since April 2023 [1] - **UAE Oil Inventory**: As of the week ending November 17, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 20.652 million barrels, a decrease of 1.159 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 562,000 barrels to 7.225 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 176,000 barrels to 3.188 million barrels, and heavy residue fuel oil inventory decreased by 773,000 barrels to 10.239 million barrels [1] - **South Sudan Oil**: South Sudan's oil transportation has resumed after the interruption caused by the attack on energy facilities in neighboring Sudan. All oil fields in South Sudan have returned to normal export levels, and all crude oil is fully transported to the export terminal at Port Sudan [1] Investment Logic - Market sentiment, including media reports of a Ukrainian peace plan, an increase in Russian crude oil production, and concerns about the decline of US tech stocks, has a large impact on short - term oil prices. The market is also awaiting the impact of the formal implementation of Russian sanctions on November 21 [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak; Medium - term: Bearish allocation, short the spread between different contract months [3]

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Core Viewpoint - DBS reported that China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) slightly exceeded expectations in Q3 performance, with a year-on-year profit decline of only 3.9% despite a 15% drop in oil prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's business model demonstrates resilience, making it a preferred stock in the industry [1] - The target price for China Petroleum has been raised from HKD 8.02 to HKD 8.8 [1] - The company is expected to maintain stable profits supported by a healthy oil price level of USD 65 per barrel and a recovery in downstream operations [1] Group 2: Dividend Outlook - The estimated dividend yield for the next two years is projected to be 6% [1]