证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 12 月 15 日 11 月金融数据点评：社融结构改善，但信贷内生修复仍偏弱 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 魏争 分析师 证书:S1320523020004 证书:S1320524100001 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:weizheng@lczq.com 投资要点： 社融存量增速持平前值（8.5%）。11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿元，同比多增 1597 亿元，存量增速与前值持平。结构上看，政府债与人民币贷款仍对 社融形成一定拖累，但企业债、信托贷款与未贴现银行承兑汇票边际改 善，对当月社融形成有效对冲。 企业部门信贷结构边际改善。当月企业短期贷款新增 1000 亿元，同比多 增 1100 亿元。一方面，在居民部门信贷需求偏弱的背景下，银行通过企 业短贷与票据进行"冲量补位"。另一方面，在央行"督促银行不发放税 后利率低于同期限国债收益率贷款"的政策导向下，低收益票据贴现投放 受到一定约束，银行可能倾向于加大企业短贷投放，以维持信贷供给力 度。企业中长期贷款新增 1700 亿元，同比少增 400 亿元，降幅较前月明 ...

Credit Growth - The total social financing (社融) stock growth rate rebounded to 8.9%, with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan in June, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - New short-term loans for enterprises reached 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 490 billion yuan, marking the highest level this year[2] - New medium- and long-term loans for enterprises amounted to 1.01 trillion yuan, up 40 billion yuan year-on-year, also a relative high for the year[2] Household Credit - New short-term loans for households were 262.1 billion yuan, an increase of 15 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by online consumption growth during the "618" shopping festival[3] - New medium- and long-term loans for households reached 335.3 billion yuan, up 15.1 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a continued moderate recovery[3] Monetary Indicators - M1 growth rate increased by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6% month-on-month, supported by a low base from the previous year[4] - M2 growth rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.3%, ending a previous downward trend, driven by credit recovery and seasonal effects[4] Structural Changes - The structure of social financing is shifting from "government bond support" to "real economy expansion," indicating a phase of credit improvement[1] - However, the current credit recovery is primarily driven by policy and technical factors rather than endogenous demand expansion, with ongoing weak industrial profits and manufacturing orders limiting sustainable credit growth[6]