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6月金融数据点评:结构改善初显,信贷扩张尚待盈利信号确认
LIANCHU SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 10:53
Credit Growth - The total social financing (社融) stock growth rate rebounded to 8.9%, with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan in June, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - New short-term loans for enterprises reached 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 490 billion yuan, marking the highest level this year[2] - New medium- and long-term loans for enterprises amounted to 1.01 trillion yuan, up 40 billion yuan year-on-year, also a relative high for the year[2] Household Credit - New short-term loans for households were 262.1 billion yuan, an increase of 15 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by online consumption growth during the "618" shopping festival[3] - New medium- and long-term loans for households reached 335.3 billion yuan, up 15.1 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a continued moderate recovery[3] Monetary Indicators - M1 growth rate increased by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6% month-on-month, supported by a low base from the previous year[4] - M2 growth rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.3%, ending a previous downward trend, driven by credit recovery and seasonal effects[4] Structural Changes - The structure of social financing is shifting from "government bond support" to "real economy expansion," indicating a phase of credit improvement[1] - However, the current credit recovery is primarily driven by policy and technical factors rather than endogenous demand expansion, with ongoing weak industrial profits and manufacturing orders limiting sustainable credit growth[6]