证券研究报告 上海机场 (600009 CH) 盈利逐步回升，需挖掘非航变现潜力 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 机场 | 上海机场 1Q25 营收 31.72 亿，同增 4.7%，归母净利润 5.19 亿，同增 34.5%， 相比我们预期的 5.0 亿高 4%，或主因成本控制效果良好。同时公司 2024 年营业收入 123.69 亿，同增 12.0%，归母净利润 19.34 亿，同增 107.0%， 与公司业绩快报一致，房屋征收获得补偿 6.9 亿使得公司盈利得以翻倍提 升。展望之后，机场流量有望持续稳步上涨，不过仍在消化免税业务所遭受 的冲击，免税客单价恢复仍需观察，需挖掘有税、餐饮等流量变现潜力，盈 利恢复至 19 年需等待。维持"增持"。 1Q25 流量稳步提升，成本管控良好，盈利同比较快提升 受益于浦东机场国际线继续恢复，上海机场 1Q25 流量同比较快增长，浦东 +虹桥旅客吞吐量达到 3238 万人次，同比提升 7.5%，其中浦东机场国际线 旅客吞吐量达到 772 万人次，同增 29.9%。流量增加推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved profitability in 2024 with a significant increase in net profit in Q1 2025, indicating a strong recovery in operations and financial performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 270 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company generated operating revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of -40 million yuan, reducing losses by 230 million yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 80 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232% [1]. Operational Metrics - In Q1 2025, the company's capacity (ASK) increased by 24% year-on-year, with a passenger load factor only down 1 percentage point compared to the same period in 2019 [1]. - In 2024, ASK and RPK increased by 33% and 41% respectively, with a passenger load factor of 79.6%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, ASK and RPK increased by 24% and 28% respectively, with a passenger load factor of 79.8%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Fleet Expansion - The company added 5 aircraft in 2024, bringing the fleet size to 75 by year-end, and added 2 more aircraft in Q1 2025, increasing the total to 77 [2]. - The fleet includes 30 A320 series aircraft (39%), 36 CRJ900 series aircraft (47%), and 11 C909 series aircraft (14%) [2]. Revenue and Cost Analysis - In Q1 2025, other income amounted to 360 million yuan, with improved utilization diluting unit costs [2]. - The unit operating revenue per ASK in 2024 was 0.433 yuan, down 2% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, it was 0.491 yuan, down 7% year-on-year [2]. - The unit operating cost in 2024 was 0.425 yuan, down 10% year-on-year, with unit fuel costs at 0.148 yuan, down 8% [2]. Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to see continued improvement in profitability as fleet utilization increases, with potential for performance to exceed expectations [3]. - The industry is anticipated to experience a supply-demand reversal, enhancing profitability elasticity [3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high proportion of tourism routes, aligning with domestic travel demand recovery [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 600 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.2 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [4]. - The expansion rate of the fleet is expected to exceed the industry average, with a gradual recovery in capacity growth and utilization [4].

Group 1: Profit Recovery - In March 2025, industrial enterprises' profits showed a year-on-year increase of +2.6%, reversing the cumulative decline of -0.3% observed in January-February 2025[4] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to March 2025 was +0.8%, compared to -0.3% for January-February 2025[2] - The cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to March 2025 was +3.4%, up from +2.8% in January-February 2025[2] Group 2: Driving Factors - Industrial production maintained a rapid growth rate, with the industrial added value in March 2025 increasing by +7.7% year-on-year, an acceleration of 1.8 percentage points from January-February 2025[5] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises improved to 5.0% in March 2025, up from 4.5% in January-February 2025[6] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) year-on-year decline expanded to -2.5% in March 2025, indicating pressures from falling energy prices and weak export prices[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - Manufacturing profits increased by +7.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, while mining profits decreased by -25.5%[15] - The profit margin for the manufacturing sector rose to 3.91% in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 0.19 percentage points from January-February 2025[15] - The share of manufacturing profits in March 2025 rose to 74.1%, compared to 68.3% in the same month last year[15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming U.S. tariff policies are expected to impact domestic exports and corporate profits, creating uncertainty in the market[3] - The April Politburo meeting emphasized high-quality development to counter external uncertainties, focusing on stabilizing and expanding the domestic market[3] - The recovery of industrial profits is contingent on continued policy support and the ability to adapt to external economic changes[37]