Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that methanol futures have rebounded from low levels, but high port inventories continue to suppress prices in the short term [1] - Domestic methanol prices have slightly decreased due to weak port market conditions, while coal prices have rebounded, narrowing the profit margin for coal-based methanol to around 400 yuan/ton, although this remains historically high [1] - The total maintenance scale for methanol is approximately 9.5 million tons per year, with non-integrated facility maintenance amounting to about 7 million tons per year after excluding synchronized maintenance capacities [1] Group 2 - In Iran, the Kimiya methanol facility is operating at reduced capacity due to technical issues, while other facilities are functioning normally, resulting in a daily production of 35,000 tons, which is still sufficient to meet export demands to China [1] - Speculation about potential early gas supply restrictions in Iran has arisen due to maintenance issues at the Kimiya facility, which could marginally reduce methanol imports to China [1] - International methanol plant operating rates have begun to decline, but external market inventories remain high, and terminal demand continues to be weak [2] Group 3 - The production profits for downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have recovered above the breakeven line, indicating an overall industry nearing breakeven [2] - The upcoming winter season is expected to bring additional fuel demand for methanol, although this demand will take time to materialize [2] - The MTO facilities in Central Plains and Zhejiang have restarted, but the overall performance of downstream products remains weak, limiting operational enthusiasm among MTO enterprises [3] Group 4 - The port inventory accumulation continues to negatively impact methanol prices, while the overall economic conditions remain weak, affecting MTO enterprises' operational decisions [3] - Despite the opening of arbitrage opportunities from ports to inland areas, the reality of weak performance persists due to high port inventories [3] - The market for methanol is currently in a state of contention between weak realities and strong expectations, suggesting a cautious approach to trading strategies [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Upward drive but limited operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] Core Views - The chemical market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - emotions. Different chemical products show different price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply pressure in Shandong increased, and prices were weakly sorted. Polyolefin futures rose. PE had improved market sentiment but weak demand and abundant supply. PP prices rose as low - price resources were sold out, and short - term demand was affected by the off - season [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rebounded with improved commodity sentiment. There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. Styrene futures continued to consolidate horizontally. Macro - support was still there but weakened, and spot transactions were poor [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose driven by external sentiment. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and the pressure on upstream raw materials was expected to weaken. Ethylene glycol prices rose, with weak downstream demand and supply recovery. Short fiber prices may be boosted by future demand, and bottle chip had limited profit - repair drivers [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to policy support. Port inventory decreased unexpectedly, and production enterprise inventory decreased slightly. Urea futures were firm. Domestic demand was weak, but exports were advancing, and the short - term trend was expected to be strong [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was strongly running due to anti - involution policies, but demand was weak and supply increased. Caustic soda was also strong. Upstream policies may affect raw material prices, and downstream resistance was high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was strongly running due to anti - involution policies and rising prices. Inventory decreased, and supply was high. Glass touched the daily limit, with continued price increases and inventory reduction. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash can be considered [8]