非伊方面，国际甲醇装置开工率已开始下降，但外盘市场库存依旧偏高，终端需求持续疲软。尽管醋 酸、MTBE等下游产品出口逐月增长，但其对甲醇需求的拉动作用有限，未能改善外盘价格疲弱态势。 近期，甲醇期货主力合约自低位出现反弹，但短期内港口库存高企仍对价格形成压制。 受港口市场疲弱影响，内地甲醇价格小幅下跌。与此同时，坑口煤价反弹，使得以完全成本计的煤制甲 醇利润收窄至400元／吨左右，但仍处于历史较高水平。目前，甲醇总检修规模约为950万吨／年，剔除 宁夏宝丰三期等上下游同步检修的产能后，非一体化装置检修量约为700万吨／年。由于山西华昱（120 万吨／年）检修未按计划执行，实际检修量较前期有所减少。在当前煤制甲醇利润高企的背景下，需关 注秋季后续检修对产能利用率提升的制约。 伊朗方面，Kimiya甲醇装置因技术故障降负荷运行，Bushehr装置维持停车状态，其他装置运行基本正 常。尽管伊朗甲醇日产量因部分装置故障已降至3.5万吨，但短期内仍足以维持对我国的发货量。在四 季度限气季来临之前，伊朗甲醇高供应态势将持续，但需谨防罐容紧张、卸货效率偏低及运力不足等因 素制约。 近期，伊朗Kimiya装置故障检修的消息再 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Upward drive but limited operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] Core Views - The chemical market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - emotions. Different chemical products show different price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply pressure in Shandong increased, and prices were weakly sorted. Polyolefin futures rose. PE had improved market sentiment but weak demand and abundant supply. PP prices rose as low - price resources were sold out, and short - term demand was affected by the off - season [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rebounded with improved commodity sentiment. There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. Styrene futures continued to consolidate horizontally. Macro - support was still there but weakened, and spot transactions were poor [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose driven by external sentiment. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and the pressure on upstream raw materials was expected to weaken. Ethylene glycol prices rose, with weak downstream demand and supply recovery. Short fiber prices may be boosted by future demand, and bottle chip had limited profit - repair drivers [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to policy support. Port inventory decreased unexpectedly, and production enterprise inventory decreased slightly. Urea futures were firm. Domestic demand was weak, but exports were advancing, and the short - term trend was expected to be strong [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was strongly running due to anti - involution policies, but demand was weak and supply increased. Caustic soda was also strong. Upstream policies may affect raw material prices, and downstream resistance was high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was strongly running due to anti - involution policies and rising prices. Inventory decreased, and supply was high. Glass touched the daily limit, with continued price increases and inventory reduction. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash can be considered [8]