英国劳动力市场意外疲软，为年底降息和关键预算出台前的政策制定增添压力。 英国国家统计局周二（11月11日）公布的数据显示，截至9月的三个月失业率升至5%，高于市场预期， 同期受薪雇员（指受雇主雇佣，通过工作获得工资的员工）人数减少3.2万人。数据公布后，市场对英 国央行12月降息的押注升至75%，10年期英国国债收益率下跌超过5个基点至4.405%，英镑兑美元跌 0.3%。 英国10月通胀率为3.8%，低于预期但仍明显高于英国央行2%的目标。该央行在11月会议上维持利率不 变。 英国劳动力市场松弛加剧正值财政大臣里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）准备公布秋季预算之际。分析师指出， 经济脆弱性凸显将迫使政府在经济走弱时期推行增税政策，这与广泛接受的经济理论相悖，但鉴于福利 改革已被排除，政府缺乏明显的政策替代方案。 英国目前拥有七国集团中最高的长期政府借贷成本，30年期国债收益率远高于5%的关键门槛，为财政 政策留下的腾挪空间进一步收窄。 失业率超预期攀升，市场大幅上调降息预期 英国最新公布的数据显示，截至9月的三个月失业率升至5%，高于此前预期。与此同时，8月至9月期 间，英国受薪雇员人数估计减少3.2万人 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - DLSMARKETS anticipates a slight tilt towards a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in November, with a forecast of a 25 basis point reduction [1] - The BoE has three upcoming meetings in September, November, and December, with expectations of maintaining the current rate in September [1] - Key economic indicators leading up to the November meeting include inflation rates, wage growth, and retail sales, which will influence the BoE's decision [1][2] Group 2: Inflation Trends - Overall inflation in the UK is projected to reach 4% in September, with food inflation expected to exceed 5% [2] - The BoE is particularly concerned about rising food prices, which could lead to increased inflation expectations and wage growth [2][6] - Service sector inflation may show more favorable trends, with expectations that actual inflation rates could be lower than the BoE's predictions [6][10] Group 3: Employment and Wage Growth - Employment numbers have declined in eight of the past nine months, raising concerns about the labor market [11] - The hospitality sector has seen significant job losses, but there are no widespread layoffs reported in other industries [14] - Wage growth is expected to slow down, with predictions of a decrease from approximately 5% to 3.5% by year-end [11][15] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Budget Implications - The upcoming autumn budget may present a funding gap of at least £20 billion, potentially leading to increased taxation [17] - If the budget is announced before the November meeting, it could strengthen the case for further rate cuts by the BoE [18] - The budget's impact on economic growth and inflation will be closely monitored by the BoE [17] Group 5: Currency Outlook - The British pound faces downward risks due to the potential for a dovish shift in the BoE's stance and tightening fiscal policies [19][21] - Despite these risks, the pound may not experience significant declines against the dollar, especially if the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish approach [19][21] - Predictions suggest the GBP/USD exchange rate could reach between 1.33 and 1.38 by year-end, influenced by broader market conditions [21]

Group 1 - The Swedish Finance Minister indicated that defense spending will reduce the space for other reforms in the autumn budget [1]