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隆平高科(000998):水稻种业盈利超预期 海外玉米或迎质变拐点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:43
在行业高库存压力下,玉米种业实现营收21.21 亿元,保持较好的经营韧性;3)巴西玉米:在国际粮价 下跌及极端气候扰动下,公司销量持平,市占率维持在20%左右,但种子销价下降带动销售额下滑至29 亿元;另外由于贷款利息及汇兑损失影响,净利润出现较大幅度下滑;4)蔬菜、杂谷及食葵种业均取 得较好增长。此外,公司2024 年累计计提减值损失4.56 亿元。 国内外玉米种业承压为一季度公司营收及利润下滑主因。2025Q1 公司总收入14 亿元(yoy-32%),归 属净利润-209 万元(yoy-103%),摊薄后EPS-0.002元。计提减值转回约1680 万元。一季度公司营收下 滑主要是玉米种子市场供应宽松、品种更新迭代加速及市场竞争加剧,导致国内外玉米种子业务销量下 滑;同时由于主营业务毛利润减少,叠加固定成本费用刚性支出,进一步压缩利润空间,故而公司净利 润同比下降。 国内种业龙头优势稳固,静待巴西玉米种业复苏。2024 年起国内杂交水稻种业进入去库存阶段,水稻 种业迎来景气向上的拐点;隆平高科品种梯队储备完善,核心优势凸显,高增长有望延续。国内玉米库 存压力高企,逆势中更显隆平经营韧性;海外玉米种子或受益 ...
隆平高科(000998):水稻种业盈利超预期,海外玉米或迎质变拐点
CMS· 2025-04-27 11:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The rice seed industry is experiencing counter-cyclical growth with better-than-expected profitability; the domestic corn seed industry maintains its leading advantage and demonstrates operational resilience; the overseas corn seed industry may reach a transformative turning point and is expected to benefit from changes in international trade dynamics, leading to market expansion. The long-term development prospects of the company are viewed positively [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 85.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.14 billion yuan, down 43% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.09 yuan [2][18]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 94.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 4.32 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 279% [18][21]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 13.6 billion yuan, with a current share price of 10.29 yuan [3][6]. Performance Summary - The domestic rice seed business has shown strong performance, with a revenue increase of 13% in 2024, leading to a net profit of 340 million yuan, which is over 50% growth [6][19]. - The domestic corn seed business generated revenue of 2.12 billion yuan despite high inventory pressures, showcasing operational resilience [6][19]. - The overseas corn seed business faced challenges due to falling international grain prices and extreme weather, but maintained a market share of around 20% [6][19]. Future Outlook - The domestic hybrid rice seed industry is entering a destocking phase, indicating a potential upward trend in the rice seed market; the company’s product lineup is well-prepared, and high growth is expected to continue [6][19]. - The overseas corn seed market is anticipated to benefit from changes in international trade patterns, leading to market expansion opportunities [6][19]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in its Brazilian corn seed business, contributing positively to its overall performance [6][19].