猪周期反转

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政策干预催化反转预期,农业板块走强
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-01 05:32
Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.21% at 3451.69 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.32% and 0.58% respectively, with a half-day trading volume of 981.32 billion yuan [1] - The pig price has been declining since Q2 2024, with an increase in both breeding sows and newborn piglets, leading to a potential negative impact on CPI if prices continue to drop, prompting government regulatory concerns [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the current market conditions suggest that the stock price of the pig sector is at a bottom level, with low risks of further decline, indicating that any minor positive news could trigger significant price increases [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities highlighted that agriculture, as a fundamental sector, is experiencing a rise in investment value due to its unique attributes such as "anti-cyclical asset premium" and "historically low valuations" [2] - The investment approach in the pig sector is shifting from a "cyclical thinking" to a focus on "quality and price," with leading companies expected to have strong profit certainty by 2025 [2] - The Agricultural 50 ETF (516810) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Theme Index, covering various segments including breeding, agricultural chemicals, and feed, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for over 60% [2]