Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the response of Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, to a critical piece published by Huxiu, highlighting the strong influence and rapid engagement of her rebuttal in the private equity circle [2][3]. Group 1: Market Risks and Asset Allocation - Li Bei identifies significant risks in current asset allocation, noting that high-net-worth individuals and wealth institutions are heavily concentrated in four main strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets, all of which carry notable risk factors [4]. - The risks associated with these strategies include the impact of small-cap factors and non-linear factors on quantitative enhancement, as well as potential downturns in the sci-tech sector due to rising domestic interest rates and the bursting of the AI bubble [4]. - Li Bei's observations on the concentration of wealth management strategies have sparked new discussions in the market, emphasizing the dangers of asset crowding and the potential for significant price volatility if common risk triggers occur [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Hanxia Investment's current portfolio is characterized by a "deep value" approach, focusing on industry leaders with an average PE of 8 times, PB of 0.8 times, and a dividend yield of 5%, with 80% of holdings exhibiting strong cyclical properties [5][6]. - The portfolio also includes strategies to steepen the yield curve by buying medium- to short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is expected to mitigate losses during prolonged deflation [7]. - Li Bei categorizes future economic scenarios into two: one where deflation reverses, leading to significant gains for Hanxia Investment, and another where deflation persists, resulting in minor losses or small gains for Hanxia while mainstream strategies continue to rise [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article notes that the current market dynamics may not simply follow a "this or that" pattern, as both technology and cyclical sectors could perform well under certain conditions, depending on economic recovery and risk appetite [9]. - The performance of the AI sector, despite recent adjustments, is expected to rebound significantly in the latter half of 2024, indicating that the current asset crowding may not necessarily lead to a market style shift [8][9]. - Li Bei's strategy of waiting for the right economic conditions to capitalize on performance recovery reflects a confident stance, although it requires enduring pressure in a competitive fundraising environment [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, highlighting the potential risks and opportunities in the market, particularly in relation to macroeconomic trends and asset allocation strategies. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Market Conditions - The current high-net-worth asset allocation is heavily tilted towards four core strategies: quantitative enhancement, technology innovation funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets [25][26][28]. - The risks associated with these strategies include potential downturns in small-cap stocks, shifts in interest rates affecting bond holdings, and the impact of currency fluctuations on overseas investments [26][27][28]. - The article emphasizes that the prevailing negative growth in PPI indicates a lack of recovery in the economy, which may hinder the performance of certain investment strategies [23][24]. Group 2: Performance Expectations - If deflation continues, the performance of certain investment strategies may remain subdued, while a reversal in housing and commodity prices could lead to significant gains [24][35]. - The author suggests that the current market environment may present a unique opportunity for investors to allocate a portion of their portfolio to alternative strategies, such as those offered by the company, to hedge against risks [24][37]. - The article outlines two potential economic scenarios: one where deflation reverses, leading to strong performance for the company, and another where deflation persists, resulting in modest returns [35][36]. Group 3: Portfolio Composition - The company's portfolio includes low-valuation, high-dividend yielding stocks, primarily in industry-leading firms, which are expected to perform well even in a deflationary environment [31][32]. - The portfolio strategy also involves a position in short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is designed to mitigate risks while providing upside potential in case of economic recovery [33][34]. - The overall portfolio is characterized by a low price-to-earnings ratio and a strong cyclical attribute, indicating resilience against market fluctuations [31][32].