格隆汇1月27日｜半夏投资创始人李蓓近日在接受媒体专访时称，权益市场不会是"鸡犬升天"的系统性 牛市，而是结构化行情。当前沪深300、恒生国企等核心指数低估，但中证2000及小微盘股（PE超150 倍或亏损）、部分估值驱动的科技成长股已严重高估，这些利率敏感性资产在未来物价回升、利率上升 后，可能面临较大调整压力。未来两年可能重现2016-2017年的极度分化行情，当时沪深300涨20%，中 证2000跌20%，但核心顺周期蓝筹的涨幅将远超当年。当前利率水平、资产荒程度、权益欠配规模均大 于以往，且非标资产逐渐消失，将进一步抬升蓝筹估值，价值投资将回归。不过要注意，财富市场的热 点集中在量化、全天候策略和海外资产，很多人可能会错过这一波核心资产的重估机会。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the response of Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, to a critical piece published by Huxiu, highlighting the strong influence and rapid engagement of her rebuttal in the private equity circle [2][3]. Group 1: Market Risks and Asset Allocation - Li Bei identifies significant risks in current asset allocation, noting that high-net-worth individuals and wealth institutions are heavily concentrated in four main strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets, all of which carry notable risk factors [4]. - The risks associated with these strategies include the impact of small-cap factors and non-linear factors on quantitative enhancement, as well as potential downturns in the sci-tech sector due to rising domestic interest rates and the bursting of the AI bubble [4]. - Li Bei's observations on the concentration of wealth management strategies have sparked new discussions in the market, emphasizing the dangers of asset crowding and the potential for significant price volatility if common risk triggers occur [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Hanxia Investment's current portfolio is characterized by a "deep value" approach, focusing on industry leaders with an average PE of 8 times, PB of 0.8 times, and a dividend yield of 5%, with 80% of holdings exhibiting strong cyclical properties [5][6]. - The portfolio also includes strategies to steepen the yield curve by buying medium- to short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is expected to mitigate losses during prolonged deflation [7]. - Li Bei categorizes future economic scenarios into two: one where deflation reverses, leading to significant gains for Hanxia Investment, and another where deflation persists, resulting in minor losses or small gains for Hanxia while mainstream strategies continue to rise [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article notes that the current market dynamics may not simply follow a "this or that" pattern, as both technology and cyclical sectors could perform well under certain conditions, depending on economic recovery and risk appetite [9]. - The performance of the AI sector, despite recent adjustments, is expected to rebound significantly in the latter half of 2024, indicating that the current asset crowding may not necessarily lead to a market style shift [8][9]. - Li Bei's strategy of waiting for the right economic conditions to capitalize on performance recovery reflects a confident stance, although it requires enduring pressure in a competitive fundraising environment [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, highlighting the potential risks and opportunities in the market, particularly in relation to macroeconomic trends and asset allocation strategies. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Market Conditions - The current high-net-worth asset allocation is heavily tilted towards four core strategies: quantitative enhancement, technology innovation funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets [25][26][28]. - The risks associated with these strategies include potential downturns in small-cap stocks, shifts in interest rates affecting bond holdings, and the impact of currency fluctuations on overseas investments [26][27][28]. - The article emphasizes that the prevailing negative growth in PPI indicates a lack of recovery in the economy, which may hinder the performance of certain investment strategies [23][24]. Group 2: Performance Expectations - If deflation continues, the performance of certain investment strategies may remain subdued, while a reversal in housing and commodity prices could lead to significant gains [24][35]. - The author suggests that the current market environment may present a unique opportunity for investors to allocate a portion of their portfolio to alternative strategies, such as those offered by the company, to hedge against risks [24][37]. - The article outlines two potential economic scenarios: one where deflation reverses, leading to strong performance for the company, and another where deflation persists, resulting in modest returns [35][36]. Group 3: Portfolio Composition - The company's portfolio includes low-valuation, high-dividend yielding stocks, primarily in industry-leading firms, which are expected to perform well even in a deflationary environment [31][32]. - The portfolio strategy also involves a position in short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is designed to mitigate risks while providing upside potential in case of economic recovery [33][34]. - The overall portfolio is characterized by a low price-to-earnings ratio and a strong cyclical attribute, indicating resilience against market fluctuations [31][32].