出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | 李蓓个人公众号 今天早上虎嗅发布了《李蓓被流量耽误了》一文，对于文中观点，半夏投资创始人李蓓迅速给出了回应。在影响力上，李蓓的势能依然强大，半 夏投资公众号发文三个小时后，流量已经接近10W+，转发量更是超过6000。私募圈顶流实至名归。 李蓓在文中提到，"里面其实有不少事实性错误，比如说我23年重仓纯碱，我当时并没有买纯碱，我买的是玻璃。" 这里需要解释一下，私募领域有特殊性，信息披露较少，外界很难像公募一样准确跟踪其具体持仓情况，因此《李蓓被流量耽误了》一文中对于 半夏产品持仓的描述，基本来自公开报道。以2023年的纯碱与玻璃期货为例，当时外界对于李蓓可能做多纯碱和玻璃期货有较多讨论，而李蓓 当时在回应中并未明确肯定或者否定。 文章提到了李蓓曾经辉煌的业绩，以及宏观对冲策略的较高难度，整体来说是比较客观公允的，正如李蓓总提到，"作者还是想尽量客观一点 的，没有一边倒的踩我，也没有恶意看空我。" 就着文中的观点，李蓓对于当前市场上财富管理与资产配置存在的风险，提出了自己的判断，比较有见地，也在市场上引起一些新的讨论，值得 探究。 当大量资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the response of Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, to a critical piece published by Huxiu, highlighting the strong influence and performance of Li Bei in the private equity sector. The discussion revolves around the risks in current asset allocation strategies and the potential for investment opportunities in a changing economic landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Risks - Li Bei identifies significant risks in mainstream asset allocation, which is heavily concentrated in four strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets. Each of these strategies carries distinct risks, such as the impact of small-cap factors and the potential fallout from the AI bubble in the U.S. [2] - The current valuations of these strategies are considered high, and the crowded positions pose substantial risks, particularly if economic conditions shift [2][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Hanxia's current portfolio is characterized by a "deep value" approach, focusing on industry leaders with an average PE of 8 times, PB of 0.8 times, and a dividend yield of 5%. Approximately 80% of the holdings exhibit strong cyclical characteristics [3][4]. - The portfolio also includes strategies to steepen the yield curve by buying medium- to short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is expected to mitigate losses during prolonged deflation [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Li Bei categorizes the future economic scenario into two possibilities: a reversal of deflation, which would negatively impact the mainstream strategies but benefit Hanxia's investments, and a continuation of deflation, where Hanxia may experience slight losses or gains while mainstream strategies continue to rise [6][10]. - The article notes that the current market's asset concentration poses a significant risk, as evidenced by past instances of severe sell-offs in crowded trades, such as in the renewable energy sector [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The future market dynamics may not simply be a binary outcome of either technology growth or cyclical recovery. If AI technology continues to evolve and applications expand, the tech market may persist, while cyclical sectors could also gain recognition if their fundamentals improve [8]. - The article emphasizes that even in a recovering economic environment, both cyclical and tech sectors could thrive simultaneously, depending on market conditions and investor sentiment [8][10]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - Li Bei's investment philosophy suggests that diversifying into Hanxia's products, which are inversely correlated with mainstream assets, can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility. The low valuation and high dividend characteristics of Hanxia's holdings provide strong downside protection in volatile markets [9]. - However, this strategy relies heavily on accurate macroeconomic predictions, and if deflation persists longer than expected, the appeal of these cyclical assets may diminish for short-term investors [10].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strong performance of the Huatai-PineBridge Tian Tian Le Shuang Ying fund, which has achieved a cumulative net value increase of 18.50% since its inception in February 2023, outperforming its benchmark of 12.98% [1][4] - The fund has maintained a maximum drawdown of only 1.56% over its operational period, indicating effective risk management [1][4] Fund Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the fund's net value has shown stable growth with a focus on low volatility, making it suitable for conservative investors [4][5] - The fund's asset allocation is approximately 80% in bonds and 20% in equities, with a consistent stock market value around 10% of total assets since 2024 [5][6] Investment Strategy - The fund is managed by Cai Zhiwen and Chen Sixing, who employ a "deep value" investment style, focusing on undervalued stocks and maintaining a low average price-to-earnings ratio [6][7] - Cai Zhiwen prioritizes risk control by selecting stocks with low valuations and strong fundamentals, while Chen Sixing emphasizes a stable bond investment approach, focusing on high credit quality AAA-rated bonds [8][9] Research and Development - Huatai-PineBridge is recognized for its integrated investment research system, which enhances its active investment capabilities across various asset classes, including equities and fixed income [10][11] - The company promotes a culture of sharing and collaboration among its investment teams, facilitating knowledge exchange and enhancing investment decision-making [11] Product Offering - The fund is part of a broader "fixed income plus" product line that includes various strategies tailored to different risk appetites, aiming to meet diverse investor needs [4][10] - The company has developed a range of products under the "fixed income plus" category, indicating a robust pipeline of investment options for conservative investors [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various investment styles that yield long-term returns, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right investment strategy based on valuation and growth potential [3]. Group 1: Investment Styles - Deep Value: Focuses on undervalued assets [3] - Growth Value: Emphasizes the quality of the company, typically investing in firms with high Return on Equity (ROE) [3] - Balanced: Considers both valuation and profit growth rate, prioritizing cost-effectiveness [3] - Growth: Concentrates on profit growth rate [3] - Deep Growth: Focuses on the growth potential of the company [3] Group 2: Fund Pool Construction - A fund pool is constructed to minimize individual risks, featuring a selection of fund managers under each investment style, similar to index fund construction [4]. - In case of fund manager changes, such as departure or retirement, a backup manager of the same style will be selected to replace them [4]. Group 3: Valuation Adjustments and Rebalancing - The active selection of advisory portfolios will consider valuations for rebalancing [5]. - Styles that are cheaper and more valuable will have a higher allocation in the portfolio, while overvalued styles will undergo profit-taking [5]. - The rebalancing of advisory portfolio funds is automated, requiring no manual intervention from investors, making it more convenient [5].

Core Insights - Jeremy Miller, a long-term shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway, has studied Warren Buffett's annual letters to shareholders since the 1960s, treating them as an "investment textbook" and has authored a book detailing his findings on Buffett's investment philosophy [1] Group 1: Investment Principles - Principle One: Never Predict the Market Buffett has stated that he does not possess the ability to predict market trends and dismisses those who claim to do so, especially after market movements have occurred [3][5][4] - Principle Two: Invest in "Deep Value" Buffett focuses on "deep value," which refers to companies with strong products and management that are undervalued by the market. He compares a company's actual assets to its market valuation and invests when he identifies a significant undervaluation [6][7] - Principle Three: Take a Long-Term View Buffett emphasizes that short-term results are not a priority, advocating for a minimum five-year performance review of a company. He believes that time can heal poor investments and that successful companies will continue to provide opportunities for reinvestment [12][13] - Principle Four: Relative Performance Matters Buffett asserts that performance should be evaluated relative to appropriate benchmarks, such as major stock indices. He uses these comparisons to assess his investment success or failure [14][15] - Principle Five: The Power of Compounding Buffett highlights the importance of compound returns, illustrating how small variables can lead to significant changes over time, while also cautioning against overlooked costs and taxes that can erode wealth [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the different stages of a company's lifecycle and the corresponding investment opportunities available at each stage, emphasizing the importance of understanding these stages for effective investment strategies [2][11]. Group 1: Company Lifecycle Stages - The company lifecycle is divided into six stages: startup, venture capital, deep growth, growth, growth value, and deep value [2][11]. - The startup stage corresponds to angel investment, focusing on creating a product prototype [3]. - The venture capital stage includes multiple rounds of financing (A, B, C) aimed at developing a commercial product and expanding the customer base [4][12]. Group 2: Investment Styles - After a company goes public, it enters the deep growth stage, characterized by rapid growth in market share, revenue, and profits [13][14]. - The deep growth style is less common among funds, but many new stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market fit this category [16]. - The growth style typically involves companies that have been listed for some time and maintain high revenue and profit growth rates, with a higher tolerance for valuation [18][21]. Group 3: Value Investment Styles - The growth value style represents companies nearing revenue ceilings, with slower growth rates, exemplified by Warren Buffett's investment strategies [29][30]. - The deep value style focuses on companies with stable dividends and high dividend yields, often associated with low price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios [36][39]. - The article notes that different investment styles do not have a clear superiority over the long term, but there are noticeable style rotations in the A-share market over 3-5 years [43][45]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Understanding the characteristics of different investment styles allows for strategic adjustments based on valuation opportunities, such as increasing allocations to undervalued styles or taking profits from overvalued ones [49][51]. - The article highlights a past strategy where the company shifted from high-valued growth styles to value styles during market fluctuations [51].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy and performance of DeYuan Investment, emphasizing its data-driven approach and diverse product offerings aimed at achieving long-term returns with risk-adjusted strategies [2][3]. Company Overview - DeYuan Investment, established in June 2014, is a registered private fund manager in China with a management scale of approximately 900 million [2]. - The company employs a strategy framework that integrates quantitative timing, deep value assessment, and systematic risk control to seek long-term compound growth [2]. Performance Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, DeYuan Investment's products in the 500-1,000 million scale category achieved an average return of ***%, ranking in the top 10 for semi-annual stock strategy returns [3]. - The "DeYuan Yangfan No. 1" product managed by DeYuan Investment recorded a return of ***% in the first half of 2025, placing it fourth in the semi-annual subjective long position returns [3]. Development History - DeYuan Investment was registered in Shenzhen in June 2014 with a paid-in capital of 10 million [7]. - The company received its private fund management registration certificate in July 2015 [7]. Core Team - The core investment committee consists of nine members, most with over ten years of experience, providing a stable and reliable decision-making framework [9]. Core Advantages - The company boasts a stable and professional team with no management changes in the past three years, enhancing product development and investor experience [18]. - DeYuan Investment has developed its own quantitative trading system that is fully automated and designed for low latency [18]. - Strict risk management practices are in place, focusing on preemptive risk identification and real-time monitoring [18]. - The company offers a diverse range of products, including quantitative strategies and alternative investment strategies [19]. Product Lines - The quantitative long position strategy operates fully programmatically, adjusting stock positions dynamically based on mathematical models and algorithms [20]. - The "DeYuan Haichai Quantitative No. 1" product has been established since June 23, 2022, with returns of ***% since inception [21]. - The "DeYuan Mingxuan Quantitative No. 2" product focuses on value investment principles, targeting undervalued stocks with potential for recovery [22]. Alternative Investment Strategy - DeYuan Investment identifies companies in financial distress that are undergoing bankruptcy restructuring but still possess core asset value and growth potential [27]. - The company participates in these restructurings through compliant capital increases, aiming to benefit from value recovery post-restructuring [27].

Group 1 - The overall investment returns in the past two years have exceeded expectations, primarily driven by luck [1] - The initial investment goal was set at a modest 10%, focusing on deep value stocks and long-term ROE [1] - The investment strategy has shifted towards companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, particularly those offering over 6% [2] Group 2 - The current market sentiment suggests that many believe banks are overvalued, but this perspective may not hold when considering long-term performance and dividend yields [2] - The importance of not using leverage in investments is emphasized, regardless of market conditions [2] - The psychological aspect of handling gains and losses is a significant concern, highlighting the difficulty of managing emotions in investing [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant transformation in the public fund industry with the approval of the first batch of floating fee rate funds, emphasizing performance-based evaluation of fund managers [1] - The floating fee structure serves as a rigorous benchmark for assessing the capabilities of fund managers, necessitating superior excess returns and effective risk management to attract long-term capital [1] - Yuan Hang, the proposed fund manager for Penghua Win-Win Future Mixed Fund, is recognized for his extensive experience and unique investment philosophy, positioning him as a key player in this transformation [1] Group 2 - Yuan Hang's investment framework is characterized by a dynamic "circle of competence," focusing on "value growth" and "deep value" to select undervalued, high-return quality companies [2] - His management of the Penghua Advanced Manufacturing Stock Fund has resulted in a total net value growth rate of 205.10% and an annualized net value growth rate exceeding 11% as of May 28, 2025 [2] - Yuan Hang concentrates on three types of companies: those with competitive advantages, those with growth potential, and those with safety margins, primarily investing in consumer, financial, and manufacturing sectors [2] Group 3 - Yuan Hang employs a principle of "efficient and safe driving" in fund management, emphasizing the importance of direction, foresight, and maintaining a safety margin [3] - His investment strategy involves avoiding unfamiliar areas and focusing on long-term holdings to accumulate compound growth, resulting in lower turnover rates and reduced trading costs [3] - The Penghua Strategy Preferred Fund maintains a concentrated portfolio, with a significant portion of holdings in banks, insurance, home appliances, and food and beverage sectors, demonstrating a long-term investment approach [3] Group 4 - Yuan Hang's investment style has led to positive historical returns across six products in 2024, with net value growth rates exceeding 15% [4] - Five out of six products managed by Yuan Hang received five-star ratings from both Haitong Securities and Galaxy Securities as of March 31, 2025, indicating strong performance [4] - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting fund managers and their teams in the evolving public fund management landscape, highlighting Penghua Fund's innovative approach and strong research capabilities [4] Group 5 - The design of floating fee rate products fosters a deep alignment between fund managers and investors, promoting a virtuous cycle of returns, capital inflow, and market stability [5] - The emergence of floating fee products, exemplified by the Penghua Win-Win Future Mixed Fund, aims to rebuild investor trust in actively managed equity funds through the demonstration of excess returns [5]