过去几年，投资正在变成一门越来越难以稳定赚钱的生意。 但与此同时，在一些此前少人探索的"业务方向"上，一些具备强大知名度的投资人（俗称"投资大V"）正在大快朵颐新的业 务天地。 网红经济学家洪灝10月末开始在付费平台知识星球上"招募会员"，最新的会员数已经突破1.4万名，以其899元每位的"年 费"，两个月"名义收入"超1250万元。 而紧接着是，同样拥有较大粉丝数的李蓓，也开始和网上大平台合作推出"课程"，4天12888元的叫价，预计收入也会达到 百万元量级。 当资产管理和投资研究等传统渠道变得越来越难"变现"时，部分业内专业人士似乎在绕开原有的业绩与机构评价体系，直 接为自己的专业能力重新定价······ 之后，半夏投资官微显示：从发布课程信息到学员募集完成，仅间隔两天时间，200个名额即全部报满。 以最保守口径计算，假设全部学员仅购买单节课程，对应的收入下限也达到200人乘以3888元，合计约77.76万元。 若考虑系统课程整体定价，实际金额显然更高。 02 "轻松实现"年化收益10%？ 从课程海报与已披露的信息来看，这套线下课程的核心，并不在具体标的推荐，而是围绕投资者的认知框架展开。 包括：如何识别 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the scale of macro - hedge strategies is expected to increase further as their allocation value is increasingly recognized in the market. Risk - parity strategies will play a stronger role as the base position in the portfolio, and the returns of risk - parity managers will experience a certain degree of mean reversion. [36][37] - The performance of subjective CTA strategies in 2026 will be better than that in 2025. The decrease in Sino - US macro uncertainties and the increase in commodity volatility in a low - interest - rate environment will benefit subjective CTA managers. [58] Summary by Directory 01 Macro - Hedge Strategy Research and Outlook Manager Classification and Characteristics - Macro - hedge managers are classified into three types: risk - parity, asset - rotation, and multi - asset multi - strategy. This report focuses on the first two types. Risk - parity managers use the risk - parity model as the basis and enhance it, with relatively consistent performance; asset - rotation managers are based on asset - rotation frameworks like the Merrill Lynch Clock, emphasizing asset timing allocation and having less consistent performance. [6] Domestic Manager Performance in 2025 - As of November 28, 2025, the net value of the "risk - parity" macro - hedge index was 1.172, and that of the "asset - rotation" index was 1.101. In the 46 weeks from January 3 to November 28, 2025, risk - parity managers had positive weekly returns in 30 weeks and negative returns in 16 weeks, with the largest single - week drawdown occurring after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival on April 11. Asset - rotation managers had positive weekly returns in 25 weeks and negative returns in 20 weeks, with the largest single - week drawdown occurring in the week of November 21. In the context of global supply - chain reshaping, risk - parity managers outperformed asset - rotation managers in 2025. [10] Asset Correlation Analysis - In 2025, the negative correlation between treasury bonds and equity indices weakened compared to the end of last year. The China Securities Commodity Index was positively correlated with stock indices and negatively correlated with treasury bonds and gold. Gold, as a safe - haven asset, had a stronger correlation with treasury bonds. There were significant differences in the performance correlations of risk - parity and asset - rotation managers with equity, treasury bonds, and gold. [13] - In terms of equity assets, the correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the CSI 300 was 0.230, and that with the CSI 1000 was 0.186. The correlations of the asset - rotation strategy with the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 were 0.628 and 0.641 respectively. The asset - rotation strategy's returns were more dependent on stocks, and the large drawdown in the week of November 21 was related to the stock decline. [19] - After a five - fold leverage treatment of 10 - year treasury bonds, the correlation between the risk - parity strategy and 10 - year treasury bond futures was 0.221, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was - 0.068. Many managers believed that the treasury bond market was in a bear market, so asset - rotation managers mostly reduced or shorted treasury bonds, while risk - parity managers still held bond positions. [23] - In 2025, gold was one of the strongest - performing assets, with a cumulative net value of the Gold ETF of 1.588 from January 3 to November 28. The correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the Gold ETF was 0.453, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was 0.110. Gold had a greater impact on risk - parity strategies. [26] Overseas Manager Performance in 2025 - As of October 2025, the net value of the "unidentified" macro - hedge index was 1.088, the "subjective" macro - hedge index was 1.129, and the "quantitative" macro - hedge index was 1.159. Quantitative macro - hedge strategies performed the best, followed by subjective strategies, similar to the domestic situation. The maximum drawdowns of the unidentified and quantitative macro - hedge strategies occurred in April, indicating that domestic risk - parity managers may use similar underlying models to overseas ones. [29] - The unidentified macro - hedge strategy index had a more balanced correlation with various asset classes, with a near - zero correlation with New York gold. The subjective macro - hedge index had a high correlation of 0.792 with the S&P 500 and a negative correlation with New York gold, indicating that its returns were more dependent on the US stock market. The quantitative macro - hedge strategy also had a high correlation of 0.627 with the S&P 500 and a relatively high correlation of 0.300 with the S&P GSCI, but a negative correlation with US treasury bonds and gold. [33] Outlook for 2026 - The scale of macro - hedge strategies will increase as their allocation value is recognized. Some investors may replace part of their stock - neutral strategy allocation with low - volatility macro - hedge strategies. The role of risk - parity strategies as the base position in the portfolio will be enhanced, and their return attribution is relatively clear. [36] - The returns of risk - parity managers will experience mean reversion in 2026. Since the probability of bonds and gold replicating their price increases since 2024 is significantly reduced, the returns of these managers will decline. Historically, the long - term return of the basic risk - parity model is around 6 - 8%. [37] 02 Discretionary CTA Strategy Research and Outlook Performance in 2025 - The net value performance of managers in the observation pool in 2025 was weaker than in the same period of 2024. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade friction reduced the trading certainty of discretionary CTA managers based on industrial supply - demand research, weakening their position - holding confidence and return - generating ability. After June, although market sentiment improved, the lack of improvement in the industrial sector led to significant drawdowns for many managers, lowering the annual return. [40] Sector - Specific Performance - Black - sector managers showed some resilience in returns in 2025. In the first half of the year, the collapse of coal costs led to a downward trend in the black - sector prices, with good persistence and low volatility. The concerns about external demand due to Sino - US trade friction coincided with the seasonal decline in coal prices, providing trading opportunities with industrial and macro resonance. In the second half of the year, differences in the implementation of anti - involution policies led to a negative view among industrial - based managers, resulting in significant drawdowns. [45] - Agricultural - product managers were greatly affected by trade frictions between China and the US, Canada, etc. The unpredictable changes in agricultural - product imports and price fluctuations made it difficult for them to generate returns. [45] Industry Changes - Leading managers are iterating towards multi - asset and multi - strategy models. The limited capital capacity of single - asset futures trading, the need to understand the trading behavior of other market participants, and the benefits of multi - asset diversification are the main reasons. [50] - Start - up private - equity funds have shown strong drawdown - control ability since their establishment. Compared with the past, current start - up discretionary CTA private - equity funds have a clearer understanding of investors' risk preferences and a more explicit performance - oriented approach, enabling them to enter institutional investors' asset - allocation pools more quickly. [52] - In a diversified market structure, single - industry logic is insufficient for trading. Managers need to have comprehensive capabilities in macro - judgment, trading, and risk - control. Research determines the winning rate, trading and risk - control determine the profit - loss ratio, and an excellent trader may not be an excellent asset - management manager. [55] Outlook for 2026 - The performance of discretionary CTA strategies in 2026 will be better than in 2025. The decrease in Sino - US macro uncertainties will make commodity supply - demand the dominant factor in trading, and the increase in commodity volatility in a low - interest - rate environment will be beneficial for managers to generate returns. The increase in the scale of discretionary CTA managers based on industrial research will also contribute to the strength of industrial logic in the market. [58]

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | 李蓓个人公众号 今天早上虎嗅发布了《李蓓被流量耽误了》一文，对于文中观点，半夏投资创始人李蓓迅速给出了回应。在影响力上，李蓓的势能依然强大，半 夏投资公众号发文三个小时后，流量已经接近10W+，转发量更是超过6000。私募圈顶流实至名归。 李蓓在文中提到，"里面其实有不少事实性错误，比如说我23年重仓纯碱，我当时并没有买纯碱，我买的是玻璃。" 这里需要解释一下，私募领域有特殊性，信息披露较少，外界很难像公募一样准确跟踪其具体持仓情况，因此《李蓓被流量耽误了》一文中对于 半夏产品持仓的描述，基本来自公开报道。以2023年的纯碱与玻璃期货为例，当时外界对于李蓓可能做多纯碱和玻璃期货有较多讨论，而李蓓 当时在回应中并未明确肯定或者否定。 文章提到了李蓓曾经辉煌的业绩，以及宏观对冲策略的较高难度，整体来说是比较客观公允的，正如李蓓总提到，"作者还是想尽量客观一点 的，没有一边倒的踩我，也没有恶意看空我。" 就着文中的观点，李蓓对于当前市场上财富管理与资产配置存在的风险，提出了自己的判断，比较有见地，也在市场上引起一些新的讨论，值得 探究。 当大量资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the response of Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, to a critical piece published by Huxiu, highlighting the strong influence and performance of Li Bei in the private equity sector. The discussion revolves around the risks in current asset allocation strategies and the potential for investment opportunities in a changing economic landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Risks - Li Bei identifies significant risks in mainstream asset allocation, which is heavily concentrated in four strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets. Each of these strategies carries distinct risks, such as the impact of small-cap factors and the potential fallout from the AI bubble in the U.S. [2] - The current valuations of these strategies are considered high, and the crowded positions pose substantial risks, particularly if economic conditions shift [2][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Hanxia's current portfolio is characterized by a "deep value" approach, focusing on industry leaders with an average PE of 8 times, PB of 0.8 times, and a dividend yield of 5%. Approximately 80% of the holdings exhibit strong cyclical characteristics [3][4]. - The portfolio also includes strategies to steepen the yield curve by buying medium- to short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is expected to mitigate losses during prolonged deflation [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Li Bei categorizes the future economic scenario into two possibilities: a reversal of deflation, which would negatively impact the mainstream strategies but benefit Hanxia's investments, and a continuation of deflation, where Hanxia may experience slight losses or gains while mainstream strategies continue to rise [6][10]. - The article notes that the current market's asset concentration poses a significant risk, as evidenced by past instances of severe sell-offs in crowded trades, such as in the renewable energy sector [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The future market dynamics may not simply be a binary outcome of either technology growth or cyclical recovery. If AI technology continues to evolve and applications expand, the tech market may persist, while cyclical sectors could also gain recognition if their fundamentals improve [8]. - The article emphasizes that even in a recovering economic environment, both cyclical and tech sectors could thrive simultaneously, depending on market conditions and investor sentiment [8][10]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - Li Bei's investment philosophy suggests that diversifying into Hanxia's products, which are inversely correlated with mainstream assets, can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility. The low valuation and high dividend characteristics of Hanxia's holdings provide strong downside protection in volatile markets [9]. - However, this strategy relies heavily on accurate macroeconomic predictions, and if deflation persists longer than expected, the appeal of these cyclical assets may diminish for short-term investors [10].

来源：半夏投资 最近一年其实我的出镜率和发声率并不高，公众号一共只发了6篇文章，平均2个月才一篇。 上个月末参加了两个会议，讲了些市场观点，整理了一篇文章，没想到引发了一场经久不衰的大讨论。 我现在刷视频，每刷个十来条，就会刷到一条我自己，要么是转载我，要么是引用我，要么是评论我。 公众号文章写我的也不少，有才华的群众甚至还出了几个漫画，其中流量最高的一条是虎嗅的这篇。 里面其实有不少事实性错误，比如说我23年重仓纯碱，我当时并没有买纯碱，我买的是玻璃。 但是我也能看出，虽然总体基调偏负面，但作者还是想尽量客观一点的，没有一边倒的踩我，也没有恶 意看空我。 最后，关于是否应该投资我，他写了这么一段： 半夏的产品，还值得投资吗？ 李蓓在择时与多资产运用上相对还是有一定功力的，其宏观对冲策略在大类资产趋势明确且低相关的行 情中，以及在经济周期明显切换的阶段，有望通过多资产的布局，以及衍生工具的操作，来把握机会。 在当下，集中体现在宏观经济转暖、传统周期顺利接棒科技成长，那时李蓓可能会有更突出表现。如果 仍是科技成长风格主导，李蓓仍然会比较被动。 目前PPI仍在负增长，没有回归正增长的迹象，科技赛道倒是依旧如火如荼 ...

最近一年其实我的出镜率和发声率并不高，公众号一共只发了6篇文章，平均2个月才一篇。 上个月末参加了两个会议，讲了些市场观点，整理了一篇文章，没想到引发了一场经久不衰的大讨论。 我现在刷视频，每刷个十来条，就会刷到一条我自己，要么是转载我，要么是引用我，要么是评论我。 公众号文章写我的也不少，有才华的群众甚至还出了几个漫画，其中流量最高的一条是虎嗅的这篇。 里面其实有不少事实性错误，比如说我23年重仓纯碱，我当时并没有买纯碱，我买的是玻璃。 但是我也能看出，虽然总体基调偏负面，但作者还是想尽量客观一点的，没有一边倒的踩我，也没有恶 意看空我。 最后，关于是否应该投资我，他写了这么一段： 半夏的产品，还值得投资吗？ 李蓓在择时与多资产运用上相对还是有一定功力的，其宏观对冲策略在大类资产趋势明确且低相关的行 情中，以及在经济周期明显切换的阶段，有望通过多资产的布局，以及衍生工具的操作，来把握机会。 在当下，集中体现在宏观经济转暖、传统周期顺利接棒科技成长，那时李蓓可能会有更突出表现。如果 仍是科技成长风格主导，李蓓仍然会比较被动。 目前 PPI 仍在负增长，没有回归正增长的迹象，科技赛道倒是依旧如火如荼。李蓓继续创 ...

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者刘国辉 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | 李蓓个人公众号 李蓓就是太懂流量了。 在私募行业，有很多响当当的人物，然而能把投资和流量都玩明白的，似乎只有李蓓一人。但因为懂流量，而被"耽误"的，也只能是李蓓。 当业绩好的时候，流量是推波助澜再上层楼的浪；而在你颠簸时，流量就要"覆你的舟"。 李蓓，这位投资界的网红、半夏投资创始人，出圈不仅靠高低起伏的业绩，更是有公开征婚、用周易算卦预判市场等出位的举动，以及地产股十 年一遇的机会、小盘股是火葬场等犀利的投资观点，在市场上影响巨大。 最近在11月28日参加活动时，李蓓沿袭一贯的风格，发表了鲜明的投资观点，如AI投资泡沫、黄金价格明显高估等，再次引发了热议。观点发 布在半夏投资公众号上，不仅阅读量10W+，转发也达到1.6W以上，影响力可见一斑。 私募主要针对机构客户和高净值客户，往往给人"好酒不怕巷子深"的感觉。李蓓则是例外，不仅乐于输出鲜明的投资观点，不怕打脸，更是乐于 将自己的日常生活、情感展示给公众。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise and fall of Li Bei, a prominent figure in the private equity industry, highlighting her unique ability to blend investment acumen with social media influence [2][3][4] - It emphasizes the dual nature of her career, where her strong performance was initially supported by her ability to generate significant public interest, but recent performance declines have led to a backlash against her public persona [9][10][12] Company Overview - Li Bei founded Hanxia Investment in 2017 after a decade of experience in public and private equity, gaining recognition for her investment strategies and public engagement [4][5] - Hanxia Investment quickly grew to manage over 100 billion yuan, leveraging Li Bei's social media presence to attract clients and enhance brand visibility [7][8] Performance Analysis - Hanxia's performance peaked between 2018 and 2021, with average returns of 16.67%, 6.38%, 99.99%, 64.42%, and 0.74% from 2018 to 2022, respectively [10][11] - However, post-2022, the firm faced significant challenges, with Li Bei's misjudgments leading to substantial losses, including a 30% net value decline and underperformance compared to market indices [12][14][20] Market Position and Strategy - The article notes that Li Bei's strategy shifted from a low-volatility approach inspired by Bridgewater to a high-risk, high-reward model akin to Soros, which initially yielded high returns but later contributed to volatility and losses [23][24] - The competitive landscape has evolved, with quant funds gaining traction and outperforming traditional discretionary strategies, posing a challenge to Hanxia's business model [29][30] Future Outlook - Despite recent setbacks, there is potential for recovery if macroeconomic conditions improve and if Hanxia can adapt its strategies to align with market trends [31][32] - The article suggests that while Li Bei's expertise in macroeconomic analysis remains valuable, her reliance on personal judgment may hinder future performance in a rapidly changing investment environment [20][30]

Core Viewpoint - The macro strategy private equity funds have shown remarkable performance in 2023, with an average return of 24.91% in the first ten months, significantly surpassing previous years' performance [2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - The average return of macro strategy private equity funds from 2021 to 2024 is 13.90%, -9.20%, -4.18%, and 20.63% respectively, indicating a substantial improvement in 2023 [2]. - The top-performing macro strategy products in the 50 billion and above category achieved an average return of 20.15% in the first ten months of 2023 [4]. Group 2: Top Products by Size - In the 50 billion and above category, the top three macro strategy products are managed by Juki Investment, Yinye Investment, and Yuanxin Investment, all of which are large private equity firms [4][7]. - The leading product in the 20-50 billion category is managed by Luyuan Private Equity, with an average return of 27.27% [9][13]. - The top product in the 5-20 billion category is managed by Zhong'an Huifu, achieving a return of 26.55% [14][16]. - In the 0-5 billion category, Yize Investment, Jiali Asset, and Sanhua Asset are the top three, with an average return of 34.80% [17][20]. Group 3: Notable Fund Managers - Zhao Weihua, the investment director at Yuanxin Investment, has a decade of macro research and investment experience, contributing to the strong performance of the "Yuanxin Multi-Asset Strategy" [8]. - Li Bei from Banxia Investment is recognized as a pioneer in the domestic macro hedge fund sector, with the "Banxia Balanced Macro Hedge" product achieving impressive returns [8]. - Luyuan Private Equity's fund manager, Lu Wentao, emphasizes the long-term support for gold prices due to ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus policies [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment strategies of Huafu Fund's manager Dai Hongyi, focusing on the "fixed income +" investment approach and the use of macro strategies and quantitative models to make informed investment decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Dai Hongyi employs a variety of strategies tailored to different "fixed income +" products, including risk parity strategies and convertible bond enhancement strategies, which have shown stable performance over time [1]. - The Huafu Convertible Bond product utilizes a quantitative management approach, balancing price and premium rates, and involves monthly rebalancing to optimize the portfolio [1][2]. - The Huafu Anyi One-Year Bond product aims for absolute returns through a low-volatility strategy, optimized from Bridgewater's all-weather strategy, incorporating six macroeconomic dimensions [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The recent stabilization of the bond market and the ongoing fluctuations in the equity market suggest a potential for positive bond investment in the fourth quarter, with Dai Hongyi advocating for a proactive approach [1][3]. - Dai Hongyi views the current fluctuations in the equity market as a "resting period" within an upward trend, indicating that there are still significant investment opportunities amidst the volatility [4]. - The article highlights the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals and central bank policies in determining bond market pricing, suggesting that the relationship between equity and bond markets is not mutually exclusive [3]. Group 3: Sector Focus - In the equity segment, Dai Hongyi maintains a focus on high-growth sectors, particularly artificial intelligence, while also exploring opportunities in innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and resource sectors [3][4]. - The article notes that while there have been recent corrections in popular sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption, there are still opportunities for discerning investors to identify high-performing assets [4].