Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the global macroeconomic landscape since Trump's presidency, highlighting the shift from low inflation and stable economic conditions to high inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, which have rendered many traditional investment strategies ineffective [10][11][12]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Changes - The global macro environment has transformed dramatically, characterized by high inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a breakdown of previously reliable investment correlations [10][11]. - The emergence of a "K-shaped economy" has resulted in traditional industries facing pressure while new technologies continue to expand, altering asset correlations and investment strategies [11][12]. - The role of precious metals has shifted, becoming the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar, as investors seek to hedge against currency devaluation [11][32]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies need to evolve from traditional stock-bond hedging to a balanced risk approach, focusing on reliable corporate earnings, reasonable valuations, and policy support [11][12]. - The importance of precious metals in investment portfolios has increased, with recommendations suggesting allocations of 20% to 30% in precious metals to counterbalance risks [51][56]. - Bonds are still considered valuable as a protective tool against economic downturns, despite their declining attractiveness compared to precious metals [55][60]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests that high inflation, high debt, and geopolitical tensions will continue to dominate, necessitating a focus on hard currencies and structural growth opportunities while maintaining defensive reserves [12][41]. - The macroeconomic trends established during Trump's presidency are expected to persist, with ongoing challenges in global economic stability and investment strategies [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "hardcore strategies" in private equity investment, emphasizing the importance of selecting strategies that are less dependent on individual managers and more reliant on stable market conditions [8][10]. Group 1: Strategy Selection - Investors often face challenges in selecting from thousands of products, making it crucial to find strategies that simplify the selection process [4][6]. - A proposed solution is to identify strategies with low variance in management and higher success rates, termed "hardcore strategies" [7][8]. Group 2: Characteristics of Hardcore Strategies - Hardcore strategies are defined by two main characteristics: reliance on stable market environments and reduced dependence on individual capabilities [9]. - A truly effective strategy is rooted in long-term market principles that remain unchanged, ensuring its continued effectiveness [9]. Group 3: Examples of Hardcore Strategies - **Quantitative Long-Only Strategy**: This strategy utilizes mathematical models to identify mispriced opportunities in the market, significantly reducing reliance on individual fund managers [12][13]. - Quantitative strategies have shown substantial returns, with examples indicating gains of 40% to 50% during favorable market conditions, outperforming subjective long strategies [13][14]. - The A-share market, characterized by a high percentage of retail investors, provides ample mispricing opportunities for quantitative strategies [16][17]. - **Macro Hedge Strategy**: This strategy focuses on creating a multi-asset portfolio that is less affected by economic cycles, ensuring profitability regardless of market conditions [18]. - The most robust form of macro hedge strategy is the allocation-based approach, which avoids reliance on precise economic predictions and instead builds a resilient portfolio [19][20]. Group 4: Non-Hardcore Strategies - Market-neutral strategies, while often perceived as stable, have significant weaknesses due to their dependence on both quantitative models and the volatile costs of hedging [21][22]. - The performance of market-neutral strategies can be fragile, as they rely solely on excess returns, which can be severely impacted by market fluctuations and hedging costs [25].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 was a significant year for macro strategies, with several hedge funds achieving high returns, particularly those under Bridgewater, which exceeded 34% [3]. - In China, the average return of macro strategy private equity funds surpassed 25%, marking the best performance in five years [3]. Group 1: 2025 Performance of Macro Strategy Private Equity - The top three private equity firms in terms of average returns from macro strategy products in 2025 are Yize Investment, Jiuqi Investment, and Zhong'an Huifu, with returns exceeding ***% [6][12]. - Yize Investment, established in 2013, has a strong track record in multiple asset classes, with its best-performing product achieving a return of ***% in 2025 [12]. - Zhong'an Huifu, ranked third, has six macro strategy products managed by Dai Chunping, all showing returns above ***% [12]. Group 2: Three-Year Performance - Over the past three years, the top three private equity firms based on average returns from macro strategy products are Jiuqi Investment, Yize Investment, and Shenzhen Shanzhe Private Equity, with returns of ***% [13]. - The total number of private equity firms with at least three macro strategy products that met ranking criteria is 13 [13]. Group 3: Five-Year Performance - In the five-year performance category, the top three private equity firms are Qianhai Guoen Capital, Qianhai Quark Asset, and Jiuqi Investment, with average returns of ***% [18]. - A total of 11 private equity firms had at least three macro strategy products that met the ranking criteria [18]. Group 4: Notable Firms and Strategies - Qianhai Quark Asset, ranked second in five-year performance, has three macro strategy products with an average return of ***%, with "Quark No. 1" being particularly notable [22]. - Hainan Wuliang Capital has expanded its investment strategies to include quantitative macro multi-asset strategies, achieving significant returns in recent years [17].

Core Insights - The investment landscape has become increasingly challenging for stable profitability, prompting prominent investors to explore new business avenues [1] - Notable figures like economist Hong Hao and investor Li Bei are leveraging their expertise to create paid membership and course offerings, generating significant revenue [1][14] Group 1: Li Bei's Course Offering - Li Bei's investment course, organized by Banxia Investment, consists of four sessions covering essential investment knowledge, market analysis, and risk assessment [1][3] - The course is priced at 12,888 yuan for the full set, with individual sessions available for 3,888 yuan each [2] - The course quickly filled all 200 spots within two days, indicating strong market interest and potential revenue of approximately 77.76 million yuan if all participants opted for single sessions [3] Group 2: Course Content and Controversy - The course emphasizes investor education, including identifying investment scams and understanding core risks, rather than specific investment recommendations [4][6] - A controversial claim in the course materials suggests achieving a long-term annualized return of over 10%, raising questions about its feasibility in the current low-return market environment [6][10] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Banxia Investment's representative product has shown a cumulative net value increase exceeding the performance of the CSI 300 index since the end of 2018, with an estimated annualized return of around 14% over approximately seven years [7] - However, the product's recent three-year performance has been poor, with negative returns and a decline in management scale, indicating challenges in maintaining consistent performance [8][9] Group 4: Macro Strategy and Market Interest - The macro hedging strategy course offered by Banxia Investment is particularly appealing to investors, despite its complexity and the limited number of professionals in this area [11][12] - The course's focus on macro strategies may attract interest but also raises concerns about the feasibility of consistently replicating such strategies in practice [13] Group 5: Hong Hao's Subscription Model - Hong Hao's paid subscription service on the Zhishixingqiu platform has attracted 14,000 members at a price of 899 yuan per year, generating an estimated revenue of 12.5 million yuan [15][16] - The service provides macroeconomic analysis, market insights, and interactive Q&A, contrasting with Li Bei's in-person course approach [18] Group 6: Broader Industry Trends - The shift towards alternative monetization methods in the investment sector reflects a broader trend of financial professionals adapting to a challenging market by leveraging their knowledge and communication skills [19] - Various professionals are diversifying into roles such as insurance brokers, consultants, and educators, indicating a transformation in how financial expertise is utilized and monetized [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the scale of macro - hedge strategies is expected to increase further as their allocation value is increasingly recognized in the market. Risk - parity strategies will play a stronger role as the base position in the portfolio, and the returns of risk - parity managers will experience a certain degree of mean reversion. [36][37] - The performance of subjective CTA strategies in 2026 will be better than that in 2025. The decrease in Sino - US macro uncertainties and the increase in commodity volatility in a low - interest - rate environment will benefit subjective CTA managers. [58] Summary by Directory 01 Macro - Hedge Strategy Research and Outlook Manager Classification and Characteristics - Macro - hedge managers are classified into three types: risk - parity, asset - rotation, and multi - asset multi - strategy. This report focuses on the first two types. Risk - parity managers use the risk - parity model as the basis and enhance it, with relatively consistent performance; asset - rotation managers are based on asset - rotation frameworks like the Merrill Lynch Clock, emphasizing asset timing allocation and having less consistent performance. [6] Domestic Manager Performance in 2025 - As of November 28, 2025, the net value of the "risk - parity" macro - hedge index was 1.172, and that of the "asset - rotation" index was 1.101. In the 46 weeks from January 3 to November 28, 2025, risk - parity managers had positive weekly returns in 30 weeks and negative returns in 16 weeks, with the largest single - week drawdown occurring after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival on April 11. Asset - rotation managers had positive weekly returns in 25 weeks and negative returns in 20 weeks, with the largest single - week drawdown occurring in the week of November 21. In the context of global supply - chain reshaping, risk - parity managers outperformed asset - rotation managers in 2025. [10] Asset Correlation Analysis - In 2025, the negative correlation between treasury bonds and equity indices weakened compared to the end of last year. The China Securities Commodity Index was positively correlated with stock indices and negatively correlated with treasury bonds and gold. Gold, as a safe - haven asset, had a stronger correlation with treasury bonds. There were significant differences in the performance correlations of risk - parity and asset - rotation managers with equity, treasury bonds, and gold. [13] - In terms of equity assets, the correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the CSI 300 was 0.230, and that with the CSI 1000 was 0.186. The correlations of the asset - rotation strategy with the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 were 0.628 and 0.641 respectively. The asset - rotation strategy's returns were more dependent on stocks, and the large drawdown in the week of November 21 was related to the stock decline. [19] - After a five - fold leverage treatment of 10 - year treasury bonds, the correlation between the risk - parity strategy and 10 - year treasury bond futures was 0.221, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was - 0.068. Many managers believed that the treasury bond market was in a bear market, so asset - rotation managers mostly reduced or shorted treasury bonds, while risk - parity managers still held bond positions. [23] - In 2025, gold was one of the strongest - performing assets, with a cumulative net value of the Gold ETF of 1.588 from January 3 to November 28. The correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the Gold ETF was 0.453, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was 0.110. Gold had a greater impact on risk - parity strategies. [26] Overseas Manager Performance in 2025 - As of October 2025, the net value of the "unidentified" macro - hedge index was 1.088, the "subjective" macro - hedge index was 1.129, and the "quantitative" macro - hedge index was 1.159. Quantitative macro - hedge strategies performed the best, followed by subjective strategies, similar to the domestic situation. The maximum drawdowns of the unidentified and quantitative macro - hedge strategies occurred in April, indicating that domestic risk - parity managers may use similar underlying models to overseas ones. [29] - The unidentified macro - hedge strategy index had a more balanced correlation with various asset classes, with a near - zero correlation with New York gold. The subjective macro - hedge index had a high correlation of 0.792 with the S&P 500 and a negative correlation with New York gold, indicating that its returns were more dependent on the US stock market. The quantitative macro - hedge strategy also had a high correlation of 0.627 with the S&P 500 and a relatively high correlation of 0.300 with the S&P GSCI, but a negative correlation with US treasury bonds and gold. [33] Outlook for 2026 - The scale of macro - hedge strategies will increase as their allocation value is recognized. Some investors may replace part of their stock - neutral strategy allocation with low - volatility macro - hedge strategies. The role of risk - parity strategies as the base position in the portfolio will be enhanced, and their return attribution is relatively clear. [36] - The returns of risk - parity managers will experience mean reversion in 2026. Since the probability of bonds and gold replicating their price increases since 2024 is significantly reduced, the returns of these managers will decline. Historically, the long - term return of the basic risk - parity model is around 6 - 8%. [37] 02 Discretionary CTA Strategy Research and Outlook Performance in 2025 - The net value performance of managers in the observation pool in 2025 was weaker than in the same period of 2024. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade friction reduced the trading certainty of discretionary CTA managers based on industrial supply - demand research, weakening their position - holding confidence and return - generating ability. After June, although market sentiment improved, the lack of improvement in the industrial sector led to significant drawdowns for many managers, lowering the annual return. [40] Sector - Specific Performance - Black - sector managers showed some resilience in returns in 2025. In the first half of the year, the collapse of coal costs led to a downward trend in the black - sector prices, with good persistence and low volatility. The concerns about external demand due to Sino - US trade friction coincided with the seasonal decline in coal prices, providing trading opportunities with industrial and macro resonance. In the second half of the year, differences in the implementation of anti - involution policies led to a negative view among industrial - based managers, resulting in significant drawdowns. [45] - Agricultural - product managers were greatly affected by trade frictions between China and the US, Canada, etc. The unpredictable changes in agricultural - product imports and price fluctuations made it difficult for them to generate returns. [45] Industry Changes - Leading managers are iterating towards multi - asset and multi - strategy models. The limited capital capacity of single - asset futures trading, the need to understand the trading behavior of other market participants, and the benefits of multi - asset diversification are the main reasons. [50] - Start - up private - equity funds have shown strong drawdown - control ability since their establishment. Compared with the past, current start - up discretionary CTA private - equity funds have a clearer understanding of investors' risk preferences and a more explicit performance - oriented approach, enabling them to enter institutional investors' asset - allocation pools more quickly. [52] - In a diversified market structure, single - industry logic is insufficient for trading. Managers need to have comprehensive capabilities in macro - judgment, trading, and risk - control. Research determines the winning rate, trading and risk - control determine the profit - loss ratio, and an excellent trader may not be an excellent asset - management manager. [55] Outlook for 2026 - The performance of discretionary CTA strategies in 2026 will be better than in 2025. The decrease in Sino - US macro uncertainties will make commodity supply - demand the dominant factor in trading, and the increase in commodity volatility in a low - interest - rate environment will be beneficial for managers to generate returns. The increase in the scale of discretionary CTA managers based on industrial research will also contribute to the strength of industrial logic in the market. [58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the response of Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, to a critical piece published by Huxiu, highlighting the strong influence and rapid engagement of her rebuttal in the private equity circle [2][3]. Group 1: Market Risks and Asset Allocation - Li Bei identifies significant risks in current asset allocation, noting that high-net-worth individuals and wealth institutions are heavily concentrated in four main strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets, all of which carry notable risk factors [4]. - The risks associated with these strategies include the impact of small-cap factors and non-linear factors on quantitative enhancement, as well as potential downturns in the sci-tech sector due to rising domestic interest rates and the bursting of the AI bubble [4]. - Li Bei's observations on the concentration of wealth management strategies have sparked new discussions in the market, emphasizing the dangers of asset crowding and the potential for significant price volatility if common risk triggers occur [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Hanxia Investment's current portfolio is characterized by a "deep value" approach, focusing on industry leaders with an average PE of 8 times, PB of 0.8 times, and a dividend yield of 5%, with 80% of holdings exhibiting strong cyclical properties [5][6]. - The portfolio also includes strategies to steepen the yield curve by buying medium- to short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is expected to mitigate losses during prolonged deflation [7]. - Li Bei categorizes future economic scenarios into two: one where deflation reverses, leading to significant gains for Hanxia Investment, and another where deflation persists, resulting in minor losses or small gains for Hanxia while mainstream strategies continue to rise [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article notes that the current market dynamics may not simply follow a "this or that" pattern, as both technology and cyclical sectors could perform well under certain conditions, depending on economic recovery and risk appetite [9]. - The performance of the AI sector, despite recent adjustments, is expected to rebound significantly in the latter half of 2024, indicating that the current asset crowding may not necessarily lead to a market style shift [8][9]. - Li Bei's strategy of waiting for the right economic conditions to capitalize on performance recovery reflects a confident stance, although it requires enduring pressure in a competitive fundraising environment [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the response of Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, to a critical piece published by Huxiu, highlighting the strong influence and performance of Li Bei in the private equity sector. The discussion revolves around the risks in current asset allocation strategies and the potential for investment opportunities in a changing economic landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Risks - Li Bei identifies significant risks in mainstream asset allocation, which is heavily concentrated in four strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets. Each of these strategies carries distinct risks, such as the impact of small-cap factors and the potential fallout from the AI bubble in the U.S. [2] - The current valuations of these strategies are considered high, and the crowded positions pose substantial risks, particularly if economic conditions shift [2][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Hanxia's current portfolio is characterized by a "deep value" approach, focusing on industry leaders with an average PE of 8 times, PB of 0.8 times, and a dividend yield of 5%. Approximately 80% of the holdings exhibit strong cyclical characteristics [3][4]. - The portfolio also includes strategies to steepen the yield curve by buying medium- to short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is expected to mitigate losses during prolonged deflation [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Li Bei categorizes the future economic scenario into two possibilities: a reversal of deflation, which would negatively impact the mainstream strategies but benefit Hanxia's investments, and a continuation of deflation, where Hanxia may experience slight losses or gains while mainstream strategies continue to rise [6][10]. - The article notes that the current market's asset concentration poses a significant risk, as evidenced by past instances of severe sell-offs in crowded trades, such as in the renewable energy sector [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The future market dynamics may not simply be a binary outcome of either technology growth or cyclical recovery. If AI technology continues to evolve and applications expand, the tech market may persist, while cyclical sectors could also gain recognition if their fundamentals improve [8]. - The article emphasizes that even in a recovering economic environment, both cyclical and tech sectors could thrive simultaneously, depending on market conditions and investor sentiment [8][10]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - Li Bei's investment philosophy suggests that diversifying into Hanxia's products, which are inversely correlated with mainstream assets, can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility. The low valuation and high dividend characteristics of Hanxia's holdings provide strong downside protection in volatile markets [9]. - However, this strategy relies heavily on accurate macroeconomic predictions, and if deflation persists longer than expected, the appeal of these cyclical assets may diminish for short-term investors [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, highlighting the potential risks and opportunities in the market, particularly in relation to macroeconomic trends and asset allocation strategies. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Market Conditions - The current high-net-worth asset allocation is heavily tilted towards four core strategies: quantitative enhancement, technology innovation funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets [25][26][28]. - The risks associated with these strategies include potential downturns in small-cap stocks, shifts in interest rates affecting bond holdings, and the impact of currency fluctuations on overseas investments [26][27][28]. - The article emphasizes that the prevailing negative growth in PPI indicates a lack of recovery in the economy, which may hinder the performance of certain investment strategies [23][24]. Group 2: Performance Expectations - If deflation continues, the performance of certain investment strategies may remain subdued, while a reversal in housing and commodity prices could lead to significant gains [24][35]. - The author suggests that the current market environment may present a unique opportunity for investors to allocate a portion of their portfolio to alternative strategies, such as those offered by the company, to hedge against risks [24][37]. - The article outlines two potential economic scenarios: one where deflation reverses, leading to strong performance for the company, and another where deflation persists, resulting in modest returns [35][36]. Group 3: Portfolio Composition - The company's portfolio includes low-valuation, high-dividend yielding stocks, primarily in industry-leading firms, which are expected to perform well even in a deflationary environment [31][32]. - The portfolio strategy also involves a position in short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is designed to mitigate risks while providing upside potential in case of economic recovery [33][34]. - The overall portfolio is characterized by a low price-to-earnings ratio and a strong cyclical attribute, indicating resilience against market fluctuations [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, emphasizing the potential risks and opportunities associated with macroeconomic trends, particularly focusing on deflation and its impact on asset allocation strategies [3][12][20]. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Risks - The current asset allocation among high-net-worth individuals is heavily skewed towards four core strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets, each carrying specific risks [6][7][8][9]. - The risks associated with these strategies include potential style shifts due to rising domestic interest rates and the possibility of an AI bubble burst in the U.S. [7][9]. - The article suggests that if deflation continues, the performance of these strategies may remain strong, but a reversal in deflation could lead to significant market corrections [12][18]. Group 2: Company Performance and Market Conditions - The company’s investment approach is characterized by a focus on undervalued assets with strong dividend yields and cyclical properties, which are expected to perform well even in a deflationary environment [15][16]. - The current portfolio includes industry leaders with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and high dividend yields, indicating a strategy aimed at minimizing risk while positioning for potential macroeconomic shifts [15][16]. - The company’s performance is expected to be lackluster if deflation persists, but could significantly improve if there is a reversal in economic conditions [18][19]. Group 3: Future Scenarios - Two potential future scenarios are outlined: one where deflation reverses, leading to strong performance for the company, and another where deflation continues, resulting in modest performance [18][19]. - The article encourages investors to consider diversifying their portfolios by including the company’s offerings as a hedge against the concentrated risks present in the current market [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and fall of Li Bei, a prominent figure in the private equity industry, highlighting her unique ability to blend investment acumen with public engagement, but also detailing the challenges she faces due to recent performance declines and market misjudgments [4][6][12]. Group 1: Li Bei's Rise and Influence - Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, gained significant attention in the private equity sector through her unconventional methods, including public engagement and bold investment predictions, which have garnered her a large following [5][10]. - Her investment strategies, particularly in macro-hedging, initially led to impressive performance, with average returns of 99.99% in 2021 and 258% in 2020, positioning her firm among the top private equity players [15][12]. - The combination of strong performance and effective public relations allowed Hanxia Investment to rapidly grow its assets under management to over 100 billion [12][31]. Group 2: Performance Decline and Challenges - After 2022, Li Bei's performance began to decline, with significant misjudgments in market timing, particularly regarding real estate and macroeconomic trends, leading to substantial losses [16][18]. - The average returns of Hanxia Investment's products dropped to around 0.74% in 2022, and by 2023, the firm was among the bottom performers in the private equity sector [16][18]. - Li Bei's reliance on personal branding and public engagement has started to backfire, as investor sentiment shifts towards a demand for more substantial investment insights rather than personal narratives [17][18]. Group 3: Macro Hedge Strategy Difficulties - The article emphasizes the inherent difficulties of macro-hedging strategies, which require a high level of expertise and adaptability to changing market conditions, a challenge that Li Bei has struggled with in recent years [19][23]. - Li Bei's past successes were attributed to favorable market conditions, but the current economic environment has made it increasingly difficult to achieve similar results, highlighting the risks associated with macro-hedging [21][22]. - The article notes that Li Bei's focus on macro strategies has led to missed opportunities in high-growth sectors like technology and consumer goods, which are critical for effective macroeconomic analysis [24][25]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The competitive landscape for private equity firms has intensified, with other firms adopting quantitative strategies that have outperformed traditional macro-hedging approaches, posing a significant challenge to Hanxia Investment [33][34]. - Li Bei's firm faces pressure not only from established players but also from emerging quantitative funds that leverage technology for better performance, indicating a shift in investor preferences [35][36]. - The article concludes that while Li Bei has the potential to adapt and regain her footing, the challenges posed by market dynamics and competition will require significant strategic adjustments [36][39].