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Google DeepMind CEO:AGI 还差 1–2 个突破?
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-08 02:42
Core Insights - The conversation at the Axios AI+ Summit highlighted the proximity of achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), with Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis suggesting that only one or two breakthroughs akin to AlphaGo are needed to reach this milestone [2][13]. Group 1: Progress Towards AGI - Hassabis estimates that AGI could be achieved within 5 to 10 years, based on specific advancements rather than just model size [3]. - Key advancements include the transition of models from text-based systems to multimodal understanding, exemplified by Gemini's ability to interpret video content deeply [4][6]. - Gemini demonstrates a significant shift in AI capabilities, showing independent judgment rather than merely conforming to user input, indicating a move towards stable personality systems [7][10]. - The model can now generate playable games and aesthetically pleasing web pages in a fraction of the time previously required, showcasing its understanding of code structure and design logic [11][12]. Group 2: Limitations of Current Models - Despite advancements, current models lack continuous learning capabilities, meaning they cannot improve through user interaction [16]. - They are unable to execute long-term planning or multi-step decision-making, which is essential for AGI [17][18]. - Current AI systems are not reliable enough to handle complex tasks in dynamic environments, indicating a need for more robust intelligent agent systems [19][20]. - Gemini lacks stable memory across conversations, which is crucial for maintaining consistent user interactions and preferences [21][22]. Group 3: Future Breakthrough Directions - Hassabis identified two critical areas for future breakthroughs: world modeling and intelligent agent systems [24]. - The world model, Genie, aims to help AI understand the physical world's laws, moving from mere visual comprehension to real-world reasoning [25][26]. - The vision for intelligent agents includes creating systems that can autonomously plan and execute tasks, moving beyond simple question-answering capabilities [28][30]. Group 4: Risks and Competition - The timeline for achieving AGI is contingent on various uncertainties, including technological risks and geopolitical competition [31]. - There are significant concerns regarding the malicious use of AI and the potential for AI systems to deviate from intended instructions [33]. - The competitive landscape is tightening, with advancements in AI technology occurring rapidly in both Western and Chinese contexts, indicating a race rather than a clear leader [35][36]. Group 5: Competitive Advantages - The scientific method is emphasized as a crucial tool for advancing AI development, allowing for systematic exploration and validation of various approaches [39][41]. - DeepMind's strategy involves a comprehensive exploration of multiple methodologies rather than adhering to a single approach, enhancing their decision-making capabilities [42][43]. - The company's unique advantage lies in its ability to integrate research, engineering, and infrastructure to transform complex problems into viable products [44]. Conclusion - The window for achieving AGI is closing rapidly, with a timeline of 5 to 10 years for potential breakthroughs, underscoring the urgency for strategic decisions in the AI field [45].
汤俊峰:提高党领导经济工作能力和水平
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-04 00:14
办好中国的事情,关键在党。中国式现代化是中国共产党领导的社会主义现代化,加强党对经济工 作的领导,是推进中国式现代化、确保中国号巨轮行稳致远的根本保证和必然要求。习近平总书记指 出:"我们要适应新的形势任务,着力提高党领导经济社会发展能力和自身建设水平。"在以中国式现代 化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业的新征程上,党员领导干部必须不断提高领导经济工作的能力和水 平,遵循经济发展规律,掌握经济工作科学方法,提高解决经济难题的本领,科学回答我国经济发展中 的理论和实践问题,不断解放和发展社会生产力,坚持和加强党对经济工作的全面领导,确保经济社会 持续健康发展和国家长治久安。 培养分析经济问题的政治眼光 经济是基础,政治是经济的集中表现。习近平总书记强调,"在领导干部的所有能力中,政治能力 是第一位的""要时刻关注党中央在关心什么、强调什么,深刻领会什么是党和国家最重要的利益、什么 是最需要坚定维护的立场"。在推进经济社会发展的过程中,各级领导干部要善于用政治眼光观察和分 析经济社会问题,善于从讲政治的高度思考和推进经济社会发展工作,不断提高政治判断力、政治领悟 力、政治执行力。 牢牢把握党的全面领导这一根本保证, ...
张朋兵评《诗经学的现代转型》|《诗经》何以“现代”?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 03:12
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the modern transformation of the Book of Songs (Shijing) from 1901 to 1931, highlighting how it evolved from a Confucian classic to a literary work, influenced by political changes, educational reforms, and modern literary concepts [2][3][6]. Group 1: Historical Context - The transformation of the Book of Songs began with the collapse of the Confucian moral system following the end of the feudal imperial system and the establishment of a republican government in late Qing [3][6]. - The May Fourth Movement emphasized the need to overthrow old morals and establish new ones, leading to a re-evaluation of the Book of Songs to incorporate modern values [2][3]. Group 2: Educational Influence - The Book of Songs was included in modern educational curricula, serving as a foundation for ethical education and the cultivation of patriotic citizens [3][5]. - Educational reforms, such as the 1902 and 1904 school regulations, maintained the Book of Songs as a required subject, emphasizing its role in shaping national morality [5][6]. Group 3: Literary Reinterpretation - Scholars during the May Fourth period sought to detach the Book of Songs from its traditional Confucian interpretations, viewing it instead as a work of early vernacular literature [6][8]. - The emphasis on personal emotion and expression in modern literature aligned with the Book of Songs' themes, leading to its reclassification as a significant literary work [8][11]. Group 4: Cultural Identity and Nationalism - The Book of Songs was positioned as a foundational text in the construction of national identity, reflecting the complexities of Chinese literature's evolution in the context of global literary trends [12][13]. - The integration of folk traditions and the study of popular songs were seen as essential for understanding national consciousness and social dynamics [9][11]. Group 5: Methodological Challenges - The application of scientific methods in interpreting the Book of Songs faced limitations, as scholars often imposed modern values onto ancient texts, complicating the understanding of their original meanings [13][15]. - The challenges of cross-cultural literary analysis highlighted the difficulties in reconciling Western literary frameworks with Chinese literary traditions [15].
吴军:中国企业“走出去”,不能只凭感觉和运气
3 6 Ke· 2025-05-19 09:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that Chinese companies are entering a complex phase of international expansion, facing both opportunities and challenges due to global political changes and cultural differences [1][2][8] - The article identifies the current phase of Chinese companies going abroad as the third major transformation since the reform and opening up, following the initial reforms and urbanization [1][8] - It highlights the need for Chinese entrepreneurs to adapt their thinking and methodologies, moving away from reliance on luck and experience to a more logical and systematic approach [2][12][13] Group 2 - The article discusses the historical context of corporate internationalization, referencing Japan's experience in the 70s to 90s, where Japanese companies expanded overseas but faced cultural conflicts and management challenges [8][9] - It points out that cultural differences between Chinese and Western business practices pose significant challenges for Chinese companies, necessitating a long-term commitment to cultural adaptation and management adjustments [9][10] - The importance of logical thinking and scientific methods in business is emphasized, suggesting that successful international expansion requires a systematic approach rather than reliance on traditional experience [5][11][12] Group 3 - The article warns against the pitfalls of "opportunistic" strategies in business, advocating for a focus on building core competencies and sustainable practices rather than seeking shortcuts [20][21] - It stresses that success in international markets is not solely dependent on individual effort but also on the broader economic and cultural context, urging companies to maintain flexibility and adaptability [21][22] - The need for improved logical reasoning and systematic thinking in business practices is highlighted as essential for enhancing competitiveness and avoiding misunderstandings in international dealings [16][17][18]