科技反攻，上证盘中再创新高 2025 2025年年99月月88日日-2025 -2025年年99月月1212日日 基金投顾观点 本周A股市场上涨，上证指数盘中创本轮新高，债市调整，COMEX黄金涨幅走缓，美股创新高。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要方面 ： | 本周市场全面上涨，上证指数盘中新高3892.74点，沪深两市日均成交额2.29万亿元，虽连续两 | | --- | | 周下降，但仍处于历史高位水平。从周线来看，A股市场仍呈多头排列。申万一级行业上，电 | | 子、房地产、农林牧渔涨幅居前，综合、银行、石油石化跌幅居前。恒生指数上涨，港股表现 | | 强于A股。 | 债市方面，本周资金面偏紧，债市下跌，利率债和信用债均走弱。基本面来看，本周公布的通 胀数据显示PPI同比跌幅收窄，整体数据符合预期。政策面来看，基金费用新规鼓励长期持有， 上调债基赎回费下限，尤其在目前债券收益较薄的情况下，对债券基金不利，因而债基持续抛 售债券，市场恐慌情绪蔓延，尤其长债调整幅度较大。从机构行为来看，基金持续卖出债券， 配置盘有一定的承接买入。 商品方面，本周宏观事件密集，地缘政治方面俄乌僵持、委内瑞拉冲突、卡塔尔发生爆 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing a coexistence of policy benefits and market volatility, with all three major indices showing positive performance in the morning session [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF Bosera (513690) and the Low Volatility 100 ETF (159307) have shown relatively stable performance, maintaining prices close to the previous day's closing [1] Group 2 - The core goal of recent policies is to stabilize the market and expectations, emphasizing support rather than aggressive growth, with interest rate cuts primarily benefiting public housing loans rather than commercial loans [3][4] - The market sentiment is leaning towards defensive strategies, favoring dividend stocks due to their stability amid fundamental pressures and tariff negotiations [4][5] Group 3 - The logic behind the preference for dividend stocks includes lower interest rates making dividends more attractive, with the dividend yield of dividend indices at 6.5% compared to a 1.63% yield on ten-year government bonds [5] - There is a surge in demand for safe-haven assets, as dividend assets exhibit lower volatility and stable dividends, with institutions using them as a substitute for bonds [6] Group 4 - The technical outlook indicates that the Low Volatility 100 Index has found support near previous lows and is showing signs of recovery, with prices above several short-term moving averages [9] - The market is expected to continue rotating between "dividend defense" and "technology rebound," with key factors being the outcome of US-China negotiations and the extent of domestic fiscal stimulus [10]