投资增速改善，经济内生企稳 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn 2025-12-08 2、《信用债类 ETF 赎回了吗？》 2025-12-01 3、《信用债类 ETF 大幅净流入》 2025-11-24 证券研究报告/固收事件点评报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 报告摘要 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 对比上月，下游消费品制造业的生产改善，中游设备制造行业的生产整体放缓。医药、 电子设备、纺织、食品等行业工业增加值同比均较上月改善。中游的汽车、交运设备 等工业增加值增速高位回落，11 月同比增速均为 11.9%，分别较上月下滑 4.9pct 和 3.3pct。 绝对增速看，化学原料及制品（6.7%）、交运设备（11.9%）、汽车（11.9%）、电 子设备（9.2%）和通用设备（7.5%）的增速明显高于整体。 服务业生产指数小幅回落。11 月服务业生产指数同比增长 4.2%，增速较上月下降 0.4pct。结构延续上月特征，信息技术、租赁和金融等生产性服务业的景气度高于服 务 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the current market pattern where Sino-US relations are marginally easing, aggregate policies remain stable, the macro - fundamentals are structurally pressured, and liquidity is stable without significant easing, the market will mainly fluctuate, and structural opportunities will dominate the trading rhythm [7] - It is recommended to adopt a "reverse layout" strategy, cashing in when the sector rises sharply and laying out when the sector adjusts [7] Summary by Directory Market Observation - Impact of Sino - US Leaders' Phone Call - The Sino - US leaders' phone call injected stabilizing factors into bilateral relations, and the probability of short - term risk escalation is low [5] - Sino - US structural differences still exist, and the actual implementation of Trump's visit to China is complex with low short - term possibility [5] - The negotiation paths of the two sides are different, and there may be "asymmetric concessions" on structural issues in subsequent negotiations, with the US likely to make larger concessions [5] - The main reason for the Trump administration's possible strategic concessions is the balance between industrial chain pressure and election interests [5] Investment Recommendations - New consumption sector: It is recommended to realize phased profits and avoid the risk of chasing high due to signs of reaching a high level and shareholder reduction announcements [7] - Safe assets (such as gold, military, rare earths, nuclear power equipment): They have medium - term allocation value as some valuations have corrected and the institutional position - adjustment stage is nearing completion [7] - AI and semiconductor in the technology chain: Pay attention to the Hang Seng Tech Index, Chinese server, computing infrastructure, and some semiconductor equipment companies, which are driven by both theme catalysis and low - level repair [7] - High - dividend/bonus assets: It is recommended to continue holding some high - dividend, public utility, and bond - like assets, suitable as the bottom - position allocation for a neutral and defensive portfolio [7] Market Review Market Performance - Most major market indices rose last week, with the ChiNext Index rising 2.32% [10][17] - Among major industries, the information technology and materials indices performed relatively well, rising 3.72% and 2.64% respectively; the public utility and optional consumption indices performed weakly, falling 0.22% and 0.14% respectively [10][17] - Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, 24 industries rose. The top - rising industries were communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics, rising 5.27%, 3.74%, and 3.60% respectively; the top - falling industries were household appliances, food and beverages, and transportation, falling 1.79%, 1.06%, and 0.54% respectively [10][19] Trading Heat - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 1208.854 billion yuan (previous value: 1093.905 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (83.00% of the three - year historical quantile) [10][22] Valuation Tracking - As of June 6, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 19.18, up 0.13 from last week, at the 68.50% quantile in the past five years [28] - Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, 24 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) showed repair [28] Economic Calendar - This week, domestic economic data to be released include China's CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, import and export year - on - year in US dollars, and trade balance in US dollars [30] - Overseas economic data to be released include the US unadjusted CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, and the eurozone trade balance in euros [30]