特朗普显然动起了歪脑筋，希望通过与55个国家组建一个稀土联盟，来挑战中国在稀土领域的主导地 位。他使出了浑身解数，采取了两个策略——砸钱和结盟。对于第一招，特朗普宣布启动了所谓的保险 库计划，投资120亿美元用以采购并储备关键矿产；而对于第二招，特朗普的亲信——美国副总统万斯 在华盛顿召开了一场关键矿产部长级会议，声称将55个国家的代表召集在一起，共同设立稀土价格下限 并调整关税，目的是争取对关键矿产的定价权。 特朗普显然是对去年贸易战中，稀土卡住美国的脖子怀有深深的不甘心。至今，他仍然耿耿于怀，并在 挑战中国稀土主导地位上使出了外部联合施压和内部强制脱钩双管齐下的手段。然而，这两条路径实际 上是建立在对自身能力的过高估计和对中国优势的低估之上。简而言之，特朗普的手段实则显得投机取 巧，难以称得上是正道。 首先，通过价格下限和调节关税来掌控定价权，实在是典型的本末倒置。要知道，真正掌握定价权的核 心是市场地位与技术控制，而中国之所以能够在全球稀土市场上占据主导地位，是因为我们掌握了从开 采到分离、精炼、应用的全产业链，且拥有庞大的规模效应、成熟的技术以及强大的环保处理能力，形 成了极高的综合壁垒。美西方国家试 ...

USA Rare Earth’s stock climbed higher on Monday, Jan 26, after the official confirmation of government investment in the mine-to-magnet producer. The US is steadily building its rare-earth supply to rival China, which currently controls the majority of global rare-earth processing and magnet manufacturing. Rare earths are a strategic priority due to their role in national security, spanning defense systems, semiconductors, electric vehicles, and consumer electronics. Last October, USAR’s CEO, Barbara Hum ...

在这一背景下，1月12日由美国主导的会议引起了广泛关注。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特主持了这次会议，参与者包括G7财长以及澳大利亚、印度和韩国等 盟国代表。会议结束后，日本财务大臣片山皋月透露，各方一致认为有必要尽快降低对中国稀土的依赖。 从美国方面释放出的信号来看，这场会议气氛紧张。美国官员私下透露，贝森特对与会各国在行动节奏上的迟缓表现出明显不满，认为推进速度远远不够。 会议讨论的内容不仅限于原则层面的探讨，还涉及了具体措施，如设定稀土价格下限，及通过建立新的伙伴关系来培养替代供应。德国财长拉尔斯·克林拜 尔随后也证实，会议确实涉及了价格下限和增加供应的具体议题。然而，一旦这些政策进入实际操作阶段，问题便会迅速显现。首先是市场的承接能力，设 定价格下限在逻辑上相当于"托底"，但"托底"意味着有人必须承担成本差，而这个差距最终很难不体现在终端价格或财政支出上。更棘手的是能力补齐问 题。稀土产业链的补充并非简单的原料采购，分离、提纯、处理以及长期稳定性，都依赖于持续的工艺积累和技术支撑。美国官员在会上形容这一任务 为"艰巨的"，涉及多个国家和多个方面的协作，这恰恰指出了现实中的重重约束。这样的体系重建，不可能由 ...

美国离不开中国稀土，却偏要摆出"命令姿态" 稀土这件事，美国其实早就焦虑了。 不是现在才焦虑，而是从新能源、电动车、军工、高端制造一起起飞之后，美国突然发现，自己在最关 键的一环上，被别人牢牢掐住了脖子。 稀土不是稀有，而是"难搞"。真正难的不是挖矿，而是分离、提纯、加工，把几十种元素按工业标准稳 定分开，这才是技术门槛。 而这一段，中国做了三十多年。 特朗普的公告里，没有点名任何国家，但所有人都看得懂：欧洲、日本、印度、澳大利亚，一个都跑不 了。 就在这种背景下，特朗普签下了那份总统公告。表面上看，是"调整关键矿产进口"，说得很技术、很专 业，但说白了只有一句话：盟友要配合美国重建稀土供应链，不配合，就用关税打。 特朗普给了一个非常具体的期限：180天。 半年时间，看起来不短，但放在稀土产业链里，几乎等于一句空话。因为哪怕最简单的一条分离产线， 从审批、环保、建设到试运行，没有三五年根本落不了地。 美国自己也很清楚这一点。 美国地质调查数据显示，到2024年，美国有12种关键矿物完全依赖进口，近三十种关键矿物一半以上靠 外部供应。就算美国本土有矿，也大多卡在"挖得出、炼不了"。 可即便如此，特朗普的姿态依然 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government is providing a total of up to $1.4 billion in funding to Vulcan Elements, a domestic rare earth magnet manufacturer, to support the construction of a factory with an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons of rare earth magnets [1][2] - The funding includes a $620 million loan from the Department of Defense, $50 million in equity from the Department of Commerce, and $550 million from private investors [1][2] - Rare earth permanent magnets are critical for various applications, including F-35 fighter jets, missile guidance systems, electric vehicles, and wind turbines, with China controlling over 90% of the high-end rare earth permanent magnet market [1][4] Group 2 - The funding is part of the expanded budget authorized by the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which initially focused on semiconductor manufacturing and research but has now extended to the development and processing of critical minerals [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce emphasized that over-reliance on a single country for rare earth magnets poses potential risks, while the Pentagon highlighted the need to rebuild self-sufficiency in the defense supply chain [2] Group 3 - Despite the support for Vulcan, the company still relies partially on overseas sources for rare earth materials, particularly from Australia and Africa, making complete self-sufficiency unrealistic in the short term [6] - The U.S. has faced a long-standing gap in rare earth mining and processing capabilities, with China dominating the global supply chain, controlling approximately 70% of rare earth mineral production and over 90% of high-end rare earth permanent magnets [4][6] Group 4 - Vulcan Elements raised $65 million in a recent funding round to expand its rare earth magnet production and signed a five-year supply agreement with ReElement Technologies for thousands of tons of rare earth oxides starting in 2026 [8] - The rare earth oxides supplied by ReElement will come from outside China, utilizing a different processing technology that is significantly cheaper than the long-term purchase agreement prices with the Department of Defense and MP Materials [8] Group 5 - MP Materials, another U.S. rare earth company, plans to achieve record production of 563 tons of praseodymium-neodymium oxide by Q1 2025 and aims to commercialize neodymium-iron-boron magnets by the end of 2025 [6] - MP Materials has also received a $50 million advance payment from downstream customers for neodymium-iron-boron magnets [6] Group 6 - Lynas Rare Earth, an Australian company, is advancing its projects and has successfully produced its first batch of dysprosium oxide in Malaysia, while facing challenges due to tariffs imposed by the U.S. and China [11] - Lynas is negotiating new sales agreements with customers and shifting to a direct pricing strategy, moving away from reliance on price indices based in China [11] Group 7 - The U.S. rare earth strategy includes international cooperation, with MP Materials signing an agreement with Saudi Arabia's Maaden to establish a vertical rare earth supply chain in the country [13] - This project aims to reduce production costs and challenge China's competitiveness in the rare earth sector by leveraging Saudi Arabia's low energy costs and favorable geographic location [13] Group 8 - Recent export control measures by China have significantly impacted rare earth prices, with dysprosium oxide prices in Europe skyrocketing from $283 per kilogram to $850 per kilogram following export restrictions [15] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce stated the necessity for the U.S. to rebuild its manufacturing base and secure core materials to ensure the proper functioning of technology [15]

好 那我们开始倒数5 4大家上午好欢迎来到一周一度的大模宏观策略谈我是Robin邢思强那么大家肯定很关注接下来7月份有政治局会议对下半年的经济政策定调会不会有一些新的调整变化 我从昨天开始周末就到了北京这周也会参加一些闭门研讨我想现在各个部委各个智库各个体制内都在紧锣密鼓地分析经济形势为决策层供告建言准备一些政策选项 我今天和我们团队的三位主讲嘉宾包括蔡志鹏博士经济学家包括张磊我们大宗商品和战略原材料行业的主管以及Anson我们香港房地产的分析师一起会聚焦四个问题第一点就是政治局会议对下半年经济政策节奏和空间的判断第二点则是最近把中美博弈的因素扩展到 货币结算体系包括人民币稳定币以及稀土这张牌中国接下来会怎么打其实稀土小院高墙这张牌跟稳定币人民币的贸易结算之间是有互相促进的可能性我们会做一些探讨和分析这里面尽管今天Laura我们的首席策略师由于在休假错过一周但我们也会简单的涉及到一点 从过去三四个月我们讲到的东稳西大就美国的各种政策不确定性带来的对未来长线美元资产和美国经济例外论的趋美退波但是短线来讲最近美国金融市场特别是美股似乎在不断的收复失地震荡中创出新高怎么看那我来抛砖引玉吧长话短说首先还是从政治局会议 ...