Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals industry, indicating an upward cycle despite liquidity disturbances [2][3]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve's indecisiveness regarding interest rate cuts and changing market sentiment towards AI narratives have led to fluctuations in base metal prices. However, the fundamentals for energy metals remain strong, with prices trending upwards [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Market sentiment is affected by volatility in risk assets and central banks reducing gold reserves. The Federal Reserve's mixed economic assessments and fluctuating expectations for a December rate cut dominate the market [5][7]. - Gold prices as of November 21: SHFE gold decreased by 3.36% to 926.94 CNY/g, while COMEX gold fell by 0.77% to 4062.80 USD/oz [7][25]. - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 7,409 million ounces as of the end of October, marking 12 consecutive months of growth [7]. 2. Copper - Copper prices are under pressure due to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts. As of November 21, SHFE copper decreased by 1.43% to 85,660 CNY/ton, and LME copper fell by 0.69% to 10,777.5 USD/ton [10][22]. - The supply side is impacted by an accident in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand remains strong, particularly from AI data centers and power grids [10][22]. 3. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility due to macroeconomic expectations. As of November 21, SHFE aluminum decreased by 2.29% to 21,340 CNY/ton, and LME aluminum fell by 2.54% to 2,786 USD/ton [9][22]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remains stable, while overseas supply concerns persist. The processing operating rate is steady at 62% [9][22]. 4. Energy Metals - The lithium sector shows strong demand, with lithium prices trending upwards. As of last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,100 tons, up by 585 tons, while inventory decreased by 2,052 tons [11]. - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while demand from the downstream sector is cautious [11]. 5. Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have slightly increased before retreating, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. As of November 21, prices were 549,000 CNY/ton for praseodymium and neodymium, and 1,485,000 CNY/ton for dysprosium [12].

Group 1: New Materials Industry - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a decline of 4.08% this week, underperforming the benchmark by 3 percentage points [2] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) fell by 3.32 times to 73.9 times, currently at 87.2% of its historical percentile [2] - Prices of rare earth concentrates showed a slight decline, with mixed carbonate rare earth ore prices dropping by 2.78% [3] - Praseodymium and neodymium prices peaked and then fell, with praseodymium oxide average price decreasing by 1.8% [3] - Dysprosium prices continued to decline, with an average decrease of 2.58% for dysprosium oxide [4] - The price of sintered neodymium-iron-boron N35 decreased by 1.45%, indicating weak demand and limited order releases [4] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The short-term prices in the rare earth sector are driven by market sentiment, with supply expected to decrease before the end of the year, while demand remains positive [5] - The overall valuation and performance levels are supported by loose liquidity and industrial policies, but high valuations may face pressure due to declining market risk appetite [5] - The industry maintains an "overweight" rating, with expectations for price recovery and improved market conditions following the easing of export controls [6] - Focus on upstream rare earth resource companies is recommended due to expected supply contraction and strategic value positioning [6] - Downstream magnetic material companies are also expected to benefit from price recovery, particularly those with strong customer structures and new growth opportunities [6] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage industry saw a decline of 0.56% from November 3 to November 7, while outperforming the broader market indices [8] - The industry valuation is currently at a low level, with a PE ratio of 22X, ranking 23rd among primary industries [9] - The CPI showed a mild increase of 0.2% in October, with food prices declining by 2.9% [10][11] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on leading companies with stable demand and strong risk resistance, as well as those innovating in new products and channels [12] - The food and beverage sector maintains a "buy" rating, emphasizing the potential for recovery in the current low valuation environment [12]

10月底，公司宣布投资约1.8亿美元新建设施，年处理能力提升至5000吨重稀土原料，预计2026年4月投 产，包括钐产品输出。 稀土元素作为现代工业基础材料，在国防和高科技领域发挥不可或缺作用。重稀土如镝和铽用于制造高 强度磁体和耐高温合金，这些部件支撑战斗机、导弹和电动汽车等关键设备。全球稀土资源分布虽广， 但加工环节高度集中。 中国通过长期技术积累和产业链优化，掌控全球90%以上稀土精炼产能，特别是重稀土分离接近 100%。这种优势源于国内资源整合和创新驱动，南方赣州和北方包头形成专业分工，确保供应高效稳 定。西方国家视此为潜在风险，推动多样化布局，但实际进展需面对技术门槛和成本挑战。 澳大利亚莱纳斯稀土公司在马来西亚关丹工厂实现重稀土分离突破，于2025年5月产出首批氧化镝，并 计划扩展至铽等元素。该工厂年产能初设1500吨分离氧化物，针对军工需求设计。 中国稀土优势体现在技术制高点，中科院无稀土永磁体技术预计2026年商用，性能接近传统，适用于电 机领域，潜在减少重稀土需求。包头研究院基因工程实验室模拟材料性能，加速创新。 这一步骤源于西方战略调整，自2020年代初，美欧日加大投资海外项目，旨在减少对 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 16 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土磁材行业周报 1 本周行业涨跌幅及价格统计时间区间为 2025/11/10 至 2025/11/14，下同。 2 估值历史分位数计算使用数据区间为 2012/02/17 至 2025/11/14，下同。 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -18 -1 47 绝对收益 -16 10 61 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 本周行业继续调整，产业链价格短期转弱 相关研究： | 《本周行业表现延续弱势，轻重稀土价格走 | | | --- | --- | | 势分化》 | 20251109 | | 《本周板块小幅下跌，产业链价格回升》 | | | 20251103 | | 据 Wind 数据，本周1稀土磁材行业下跌 4.08%，跑输基准（沪深 300） 3pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）回落 3.32x 至 73.9x， ...

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) has confirmed its production of medium and heavy rare earth elements, indicating a diverse product portfolio in this sector [1] Group 1: Company Production - The company currently produces a variety of medium and heavy rare earth products, including samarium carbonate, samarium oxide, europium carbonate, europium oxide, gadolinium oxide, terbium oxide, dysprosium oxide, yttrium carbonate, holmium oxide, and erbium oxide [1]

今年10月，中美在釜山临时按下"稀土键"——北京同意一年内不收紧出口，华盛顿把部分关税从20%降到10%。消息一出，外媒欢呼"美国松了一口气"，可 国内不少厂商却悄悄倒吸一口凉气：协议只是缓刑，牌桌还在，筹码却未必全在中国这边。 真正让决策层心里发毛的，是"禁运反噬"的连锁推演。假设明年协议到期，中国再次全面断供，美欧日大概率同步启动"反向禁运"——日方冻结专利、德方 断供炉子、美方把缅甸矿源列入制裁清单，三条线同时收紧，中国磁体厂将陷入"无专利、无备件、无重稀土"的三无困境。更糟的是，国内离子吸附型中重 稀土储量虽大，却分布在江西、广东浅层，一旦加速开采，环保成本和资源税将翻倍，相当于用战略纵深换短期出口，赔本又赔未来。 于是出现了一种微妙的再平衡：北京在10月协议里只承诺"维持出口"，却绝口不提"取消许可证"，海关依旧保留随时抽查最终用户证明的权力；华盛顿则把 关税降到47%，却还在半导体、AI芯片上层层加锁。双方都像在稀土这口高压锅上轮流拧阀门，谁也不敢让压力归零，更不敢一次性放气，因为都知道—— 锅里的蒸汽一旦失控，先烫手的是阀门那边的人。 未来一年，大概率会看到这样一幅场景：中国磁体厂继续满负荷生产 ...

Group 1: Tungsten Market - Black tungsten concentrate price increased by 12.23% to 312,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate price rose by 13.30% to 460,000 CNY/ton [1][3] - Supply side shows a reduction in tungsten concentrate mining indicators, with mines generally slowing production pace, leading to tighter industry circulation [1][3] - Domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential procurement, with recent APT procurement prices for early November rising by 52,000 CNY/ton, boosting market bullish sentiment [1][3] Group 2: Rare Earth Market - Rare earth supply and demand are both weak, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 10.49% to 553,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide increased by 1.63% to 1,560,000 CNY/ton [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced new export controls on rare earth items and technologies, targeting violations of existing measures [2] - Supply side sees some production companies controlling output due to cost pressures, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies remains low [2] Group 3: Molybdenum Market - Molybdenum concentrate price decreased by 9.78% to 3,965 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron price fell by 7.62% to 254,500 CNY/ton [2] - Supply side indicates signs of shrinking molybdenum concentrate, while demand from steel procurement is increasing but facing price pressure from steel mills [2] Group 4: Tin Market - Tin prices are experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with SHFE tin down by 0.28% to 283,500 CNY/ton and LME tin up by 0.35% to 36,100 USD/ton [3] - Supply side affected by low operating rates of refining tin smelting enterprises due to raw material shortages from Myanmar [3] - High tin prices are leading to low replenishment willingness in the electronics and home appliance sectors, with downstream manufacturers primarily engaging in essential procurement [3] Group 5: Antimony Market - Antimony ingot price decreased by 6.27% to 149,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate price fell by 7.07% to 131,500 CNY/ton [4] - Supply side sees tight domestic antimony raw materials due to a halt in overseas mines entering the domestic market, coupled with weak smelting profitability [4] - Demand remains focused on essential procurement, with strong demand in the photovoltaic sector, while short-term export demand is under pressure [4] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [5] - Domestic advancements include breakthroughs in the localization of second-generation high-temperature superconducting strips [5] - Internationally, significant investments and reports on fusion research are emerging, indicating a growing interest in the sector [5]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a mixed supply and demand situation in the rare earth sector, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 10.49% to 553,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide rose by 1.63% to 1,560,000 CNY/ton. However, terbium oxide saw a decline of 1.71% to 6,625,000 CNY/ton [4][11] - Molybdenum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with molybdenum concentrate prices dropping by 9.78% to 3,965 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices decreasing by 7.62% to 254,500 CNY/ton [4][20] - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs due to supply constraints and price increases in long-term contracts, with black tungsten concentrate prices rising by 12.23% to 312,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate prices increasing by 13.30% to 460,000 CNY/ton [4][28] - Tin prices are fluctuating with SHFE tin down by 0.28% to 283,510 CNY/ton, while LME tin increased by 0.35% to 36,050 USD/ton [4][32] - Antimony prices are under pressure, with antimony ingot prices falling by 6.27% to 149,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices down by 7.07% to 131,500 CNY/ton [4][40] - The report notes that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is accelerating commercialization, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [4][5] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Supply and demand are weak, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices rising by 10.49% to 553,000 CNY/ton [4][11] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Guangsheng Youse and China Rare Earth [4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices decreased by 9.78% to 3,965 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron prices fell by 7.62% to 254,500 CNY/ton [4][20] - Suggested company to watch: Jinduicheng Molybdenum [4] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices increased by 12.23% to 312,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 13.30% to 460,000 CNY/ton [4][28] - Recommended companies include Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4] Tin - SHFE tin prices fell by 0.28% to 283,510 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices rose by 0.35% to 36,050 USD/ton [4][32] - Companies to focus on: Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Silver Tin [4] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices dropped by 6.27% to 149,500 CNY/ton, and concentrate prices fell by 7.07% to 131,500 CNY/ton [4][40] - Companies to monitor include Huaxi Silver and Hunan Gold [4] Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant benefits expected for upstream materials [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and failures of the U.S. in breaking its reliance on China for rare earth elements, highlighting systemic issues within the U.S. government and industry that hinder progress in this area [4][41]. Group 1: U.S. Rare Earth Strategy - The Trump administration's approach to rare earth elements has been characterized by a desperate and chaotic strategy, likened to a character from "Dream of the Red Chamber" who indiscriminately collects everything [5]. - The U.S. Geological Survey does not list Ukraine as a major rare earth holder, contradicting claims made by U.S. officials about securing significant rare earth resources from Ukraine [6][8]. - The U.S. has been attempting to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths for over 15 years, with various legislative efforts aimed at rebuilding domestic production and supply chains [10][11]. Group 2: Legislative and Policy Developments - A series of legislative measures have been introduced since 2010 to address the rare earth supply issue, including the "Rare Earth Supply Chain Technology and Resource Transformation Act" [10][11]. - The Biden administration has continued and expanded upon the previous administration's rare earth strategies, emphasizing the importance of securing critical mineral supply chains [14][15]. Group 3: Production and Processing Challenges - The Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California, which was once the world's largest supplier, has resumed production but still faces significant challenges in scaling up to meet demand [17][18]. - The U.S. has made some progress in rare earth processing, with investments in facilities in California and Texas, but still lags behind China in terms of production capacity and technology [22][23]. Group 4: Systemic Issues and Market Dynamics - The U.S. mining sector faces bureaucratic hurdles, with lengthy permitting processes that can take decades, contributing to a slow pace of development in the rare earth industry [32][33]. - The market for rare earths is relatively small, which complicates investment decisions and makes it difficult for U.S. companies to justify large-scale production efforts [34][36]. - The article emphasizes that despite significant investments and policy initiatives, the U.S. has only achieved a "zero breakthrough" in its rare earth strategy over the past 15 years, indicating a lack of substantial progress [26][28].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is providing a total of up to $1.4 billion in funding to Vulcan Elements, a domestic rare earth magnet manufacturer, to support the construction of a factory with an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons of rare earth magnets [1][2] - The funding includes a $620 million loan from the Department of Defense, $50 million in equity from the Department of Commerce, and $550 million from private investors [1][2] - Rare earth permanent magnets are critical for various applications, including F-35 fighter jets, missile guidance systems, electric vehicles, and wind turbines, with China controlling over 90% of the high-end rare earth permanent magnet market [1][4] Group 2 - The funding is part of the expanded budget authorized by the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which initially focused on semiconductor manufacturing and research but has now extended to the development and processing of critical minerals [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce emphasized that over-reliance on a single country for rare earth magnets poses potential risks, while the Pentagon highlighted the need to rebuild self-sufficiency in the defense supply chain [2] Group 3 - Despite the support for Vulcan, the company still relies partially on overseas sources for rare earth materials, particularly from Australia and Africa, making complete self-sufficiency unrealistic in the short term [6] - The U.S. has faced a long-standing gap in rare earth mining and processing capabilities, with China dominating the global supply chain, controlling approximately 70% of rare earth mineral production and over 90% of high-end rare earth permanent magnets [4][6] Group 4 - Vulcan Elements raised $65 million in a recent funding round to expand its rare earth magnet production and signed a five-year supply agreement with ReElement Technologies for thousands of tons of rare earth oxides starting in 2026 [8] - The rare earth oxides supplied by ReElement will come from outside China, utilizing a different processing technology that is significantly cheaper than the long-term purchase agreement prices with the Department of Defense and MP Materials [8] Group 5 - MP Materials, another U.S. rare earth company, plans to achieve record production of 563 tons of praseodymium-neodymium oxide by Q1 2025 and aims to commercialize neodymium-iron-boron magnets by the end of 2025 [6] - MP Materials has also received a $50 million advance payment from downstream customers for neodymium-iron-boron magnets [6] Group 6 - Lynas Rare Earth, an Australian company, is advancing its projects and has successfully produced its first batch of dysprosium oxide in Malaysia, while facing challenges due to tariffs imposed by the U.S. and China [11] - Lynas is negotiating new sales agreements with customers and shifting to a direct pricing strategy, moving away from reliance on price indices based in China [11] Group 7 - The U.S. rare earth strategy includes international cooperation, with MP Materials signing an agreement with Saudi Arabia's Maaden to establish a vertical rare earth supply chain in the country [13] - This project aims to reduce production costs and challenge China's competitiveness in the rare earth sector by leveraging Saudi Arabia's low energy costs and favorable geographic location [13] Group 8 - Recent export control measures by China have significantly impacted rare earth prices, with dysprosium oxide prices in Europe skyrocketing from $283 per kilogram to $850 per kilogram following export restrictions [15] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce stated the necessity for the U.S. to rebuild its manufacturing base and secure core materials to ensure the proper functioning of technology [15]