人民币狂飙2.46%！美元却"崩了"，全球资本正悄悄转向中国 2025年10月3日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率突破7.0关口，创16个月新高，年内累计升值达2.46%；与此同时，美元指数年内跌幅超10%，创下1973年以来最大 年度跌幅。这场"人民币逆袭"与"美元崩塌"的双向奔赴，不仅改写全球货币格局，更折射出国际资本对中国资产的深度重估。当美联储降息周期与中美博弈 新局交织，一场静悄悄的"资本迁徙革命"正在发生。 一、汇率异动：人民币与美元的"冰火两重天" 1. 人民币升值的"三重引擎" - 美元信用崩塌：美国债务规模突破36万亿美元，财政赤字率攀升至6.8%，标普下调美债评级引发抛售潮。IMF数据显示，美元在全球外汇储备中占比降至 56.32%，创30年新低。 - 中国经济韧性：2025年上半年GDP增速5.3%，新能源汽车、光伏设备出口同比增83%，贸易顺差扩大至4200亿美元。外汇储备回升至3.2万亿美元，黄金储 备占比升至4.5%。 - 政策精准调控：央行通过逆周期因子调节中间价，外汇存款准备金率动态调整，离岸央票发行规模同比增120%，有效遏制投机性贬值。 2. 美元崩塌的"四大推手" - 美联储降息失 ...

Core Insights - The integration of technology and finance is an irreversible trend, with new technologies like AI, big data, and blockchain reshaping the financial industry and creating new business models [1][2] Group 1: Technology Integration - The new technological revolution characterized by intelligence, greenness, and digitization is significantly impacting the global economy and pushing the financial industry into a new era [1] - AI is accelerating its integration into financial processes, enhancing areas such as investment research, risk control, compliance checks, and customer service [1] - The penetration rate of smart investment advisory services has exceeded 60%, with the global managed scale expected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2024 [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Financial Modernization - Encouraging innovation is essential, with a focus on market-oriented and legal frameworks to promote financial innovation and collaboration between financial institutions and technology companies [2] - Reform is necessary to enhance the capabilities of financial institutions, particularly state-owned banks, and to shift regulatory approaches towards business logic rather than institutional types [3] - Expanding openness in the financial sector can improve resource allocation efficiency and enhance international competitiveness [3] Group 3: Financial Ecosystem Integration - The financial sector must maintain its focus on serving the real economy while promoting cross-sector integration among various financial services and industries [4] - Strengthening the integration of finance with technology, e-commerce, and logistics can create more comprehensive financial service scenarios [4] Group 4: Risk Management - Risk prevention remains a core theme in financial work, with a focus on data security and privacy protection as new business models emerge [4] - Establishing a regulatory framework that adapts to new business models and enhances regulatory capabilities is crucial for balancing innovation and risk prevention [4]

尹艳林谈道，中国金融业赶上了现代化的时代潮流。以数字化为例，尹艳林介绍说，金融机构加速推进 数字化转型，金融科技发展规划明确提出，到2027年实现主要金融机构数字化率超85%。我国数字金融 业态不断丰富，已覆盖支付、信贷、投资、保险、征信等各项业务，数字支付全球领先。目前，我国已 成为全球移动支付的第一大市场，移动支付平台用户数超过10亿，普及率居全球首位。2024年中国个人 手机银行用户使用比例达88%，93%的企业开通了企业网银。数字人民币试点扩至17省，雄安新区数字 人民币发薪覆盖率超80%。 "此外，我国金融的国际化也取得明显进展。"尹艳林说，离岸人民币债券发行规模创新高，粤港澳大湾 区跨境理财通规模实现突破，跨境保险通、债券通南向交易等新政落地，上海国际金融中心建设顺利推 进。数字人民币国际运营中心已正式开业，跨境支付中人民币占比有望进一步上升。 在扩大开放方面，尹艳林表示，只有开放，才能促进改革创新。要通过扩大对外开放，提高我国金融资 源配置效率和能力，增强国际竞争力和规则影响力。要对标国际高标准经贸协议中金融领域相关规则， 精简限制性措施，提升跨境投融资便利化水平。要以开放的理念积极拥抱新业态， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity for China to engage in the ongoing currency revolution, particularly focusing on the development of digital assets like the Digital Renminbi and the concept of Renminbi stablecoins, which could significantly impact daily life and the international financial landscape [3][4]. Group 1: Digital Renminbi - The Digital Renminbi, initiated in 2019, is a state-backed digital currency that has been integrated into various daily payment scenarios, becoming a crucial part of China's digital payment transformation [3][6]. - It is characterized by its central bank issuance, strong policy tool attributes, and focus on domestic payment systems, emphasizing controllable anonymity and programmability [10][14]. - The Digital Renminbi is expected to enhance retail payments and official cross-border settlement channels, although its usage frequency among the general public remains low [14][24]. Group 2: Renminbi Stablecoin - The Renminbi stablecoin, still in conceptual stages, is a type of fiat-backed cryptocurrency that aims to facilitate cross-border payments and enhance the efficiency of international transactions [4][6]. - It is proposed to be issued by licensed institutions with a 1:1 reserve requirement, making it more aligned with commercial innovation and the Web3 ecosystem [10][24]. - The development of a Renminbi stablecoin is seen as essential for China to maintain competitiveness in the global digital finance arena, especially against established stablecoins like USDT and USDC [19][21]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - There is an ongoing debate about the relationship between the Digital Renminbi and the Renminbi stablecoin, with some experts suggesting they serve complementary roles in domestic and international contexts [7][10]. - Concerns exist regarding potential competition between the two, particularly in cross-border payments, where the efficiency of the stablecoin could overshadow the Digital Renminbi [7][14]. - The article highlights the strategic implications of these digital currencies for China's financial security and global financial influence, indicating a need for careful consideration in their development and deployment [7][21]. Group 4: Future Directions - Experts suggest a dual-track approach for the future, where the Digital Renminbi continues to expand its domestic applications while the Renminbi stablecoin is tested in offshore markets, particularly in Hong Kong [30][31]. - The successful implementation of a Renminbi stablecoin could enhance China's position in the global financial system, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [30][31]. - The article concludes that the integration of these digital currencies with the real economy is crucial for their success, alongside robust regulatory frameworks to mitigate risks [21][24].

9月9日，"第二十五届投洽会·凤凰网梧桐夜话"交流晚宴在厦门举行。政商学界领袖齐聚一堂，围绕"浪潮之巅 投资未来"主题展开高端对话，前瞻全球格局 下的投资机遇与产业趋势。 美元稳定币通过绑定美债缓解压力，却藏"瞬间崩塌"隐患 今年6月，美国《稳定币法案》正式落地，其中核心要求引发市场广泛关注——全球范围内发行的美元稳定币，需1:1绑定美元或久期不超过93天的短久期美 债。在叶开看来，这一规则的本质是让全球美元稳定币的使用者"间接接盘美债"。 "美国长期依赖'印美元-购全球商品-发美债回收美元'的循环，当前美债压 力已十分突出。若全球个人与机构使用USDC、USDT等美元稳定币，其背后的储备资产实则是美债，相当于将美债持有主体从少数国家央行，分散到了全 球数十亿用户手中。" 华夏数字资本创始人叶开出席活动，针对稳定币的核心定义、关键特性以及未来发展方向等向凤凰网财经进行了解答。 叶开指出，这种分散化虽短期大幅缓解了美国的美债发行压力，但却埋下了更难控制的风险。 他进一步分析，过往美债主要由各国央行持有，美国可通过 外交沟通、政策协调等方式避免集中抛售。但当持有者变成全球化的普通用户与机构时，一旦出现突发事件，资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate, highlighting the factors contributing to the RMB's appreciation and the underlying economic conditions that support this trend [2][4][14]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB experienced a series of fluctuations in 2023, initially appreciating in a weak dollar environment, then depreciating due to tariff concerns, before regaining strength [2]. - The RMB's middle price, onshore price, and offshore price have all shown a tendency to converge towards the 7.0 level, indicating a unified market response [2][4]. Group 2: Core Pillars of RMB Valuation - The three core pillars influencing RMB valuation are the China-US interest rate differential, policy risk premium, and purchasing power parity (PPP) [4]. - The narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential has been a fundamental basis for the RMB's appreciation over the past three months, with the nominal interest rate spread decreasing by nearly 50 basis points [4][5]. - The actual interest rate differential has also narrowed, with China's low inflation levels contrasting with rising inflation in the US, enhancing the relative attractiveness of Chinese assets [5][7]. Group 3: Policy Risk and Market Sentiment - The policy risk premium for Chinese assets is decreasing, while it is rising for US assets, driven by concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve [7]. - The stability of RMB assets is becoming a rare value in a globally turbulent macroeconomic environment, as China's reforms and policy stability are expected to further reduce the sovereign risk premium [7][11]. Group 4: Purchasing Power Parity - The RMB is currently undervalued against the USD based on purchasing power parity, with the IMF indicating that 1 USD has the purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB [9]. - Long-term undervaluation is attributed to capital account restrictions and international investor concerns regarding China's economic transition [11]. Group 5: Catalysts for RMB Appreciation - The recent strong performance of the RMB is attributed to both internal and external factors, including the central bank's strong midpoint guidance and geopolitical considerations [14][15]. - The influx of foreign capital into the A-share market, driven by a bullish sentiment, has created additional demand for RMB, contributing to its appreciation [19]. - Companies are accelerating their currency conversion from USD to RMB, as the cost of holding USD increases amid anticipated US interest rate cuts [22]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, although challenges such as declining export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery remain [25].

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB/USD exchange rate has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of the year, with a slight appreciation in early 2023 due to a weaker dollar, followed by a rapid depreciation in April due to tariff concerns, and a return to appreciation from May onwards[2] - As of late August, the RMB has entered a strong appreciation phase, with the onshore and offshore rates converging towards the 7.0 level, indicating support from both fundamental and policy factors[2][5] Key Drivers of RMB Appreciation - The narrowing of the China-US 10-year Treasury yield spread by nearly 50 basis points over the past three months has provided a basis for recent RMB appreciation, driven by a mild increase in China's risk-free interest rates and a decline in US Treasury yields[7] - Changes in policy risk premiums have favored the RMB, as rising uncertainty in US fiscal and monetary policies contrasts with China's efforts to reduce sovereign risk premiums through reforms[6][14] - The long-standing undervaluation of the RMB is changing, with IMF data indicating that 1 USD has a purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB, suggesting the current exchange rate is undervalued by over 50%[17][20] Catalysts for Recent Appreciation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released strong appreciation expectations through its midpoint rate, influenced by geopolitical negotiations and domestic stability considerations[3][31] - The bullish trend in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 8% and the ChiNext Index over 20% in August, has led to increased foreign investment and demand for RMB[40] Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, but factors such as weak export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery suggest a stable appreciation pace is more beneficial for fundamental recovery[47] - The importance of the RMB against a basket of currencies is anticipated to rise, reflecting the need for a more balanced exchange rate strategy[49]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the growing importance of stablecoins in the global financial landscape, driven by regulatory developments in major economies like the US, Europe, Japan, and China [3][5][30] - As of March this year, the global circulation of stablecoins has surpassed $200 billion, with leading companies like Circle issuing over $1 billion in stablecoins weekly [5][30] - Stablecoins are fundamentally different from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as they are designed for stability and transactional use rather than speculative investment [5][6][30] Group 2 - Stablecoins serve as a "receipt" for fiat currencies, ensuring their value is backed by real assets such as cash or government bonds [6][8] - The use of stablecoins can significantly reduce transaction costs, especially for cross-border payments, by eliminating the need for intermediaries like banks [9][12][14] - Smart contracts associated with stablecoins can automate trust in transactions, reducing reliance on traditional banking systems [15][20][22] Group 3 - Issuing stablecoins allows companies to earn interest on the substantial reserves backing these digital assets, effectively functioning as a "shadow bank" [23][24] - The issuance of stablecoins can influence global financial dynamics, particularly in terms of international trade and monetary sovereignty [24][31] - The US promotes stablecoins to enhance its financial power through the dollar, while China views them as a means to internationalize the renminbi [31][32] Group 4 - The article suggests that the real opportunities in the stablecoin market lie not in trading the coins themselves but in providing services and infrastructure around them, such as digital wallets and supply chain finance solutions [35][36]

Group 1 - China is considering the launch of a Renminbi stablecoin, potentially approving it by the end of the month, indicating a faster pace than expected in its digital currency strategy [1] - Stablecoins are designed to provide price stability by being pegged to stable assets like the US dollar, making them suitable for everyday transactions and international payments [3] - The introduction of a Renminbi stablecoin would facilitate direct payments between Chinese enterprises and international clients, reducing reliance on the US dollar and associated costs [4] Group 2 - The competition for dominance in the digital currency space is intensifying, with the US promoting dollar stablecoins to maintain its global payment supremacy [6] - A Renminbi stablecoin could enhance China's presence in the international financial system, providing a strategic advantage amid increasing geopolitical tensions and sanctions [8] - Effective regulation and oversight will be crucial for the success of the Renminbi stablecoin, as it poses potential risks such as capital flight and financial instability if not managed properly [6][8]

Group 1 - The global financial landscape is undergoing a profound restructuring, with the internationalization of the RMB and offshore finance being assigned key strategic missions by the state [1] - The 2023 Central Financial Committee's opinion emphasizes the construction of an offshore financial system that matches the Shanghai International Financial Center, marking a shift in the role of offshore finance to a core pillar of the national financial opening strategy [1] - The 2024 RMB Internationalization White Paper indicates that the RMB has maintained its position as the fifth largest payment currency globally for four consecutive years, but its share in high-value scenarios like trade financing and cash management remains below 20%, highlighting the urgency to accelerate the RMB's internationalization [1] Group 2 - The interdependence between RMB internationalization and offshore finance is crucial, as a robust offshore financial market is essential for the RMB's global expansion, providing necessary services such as clearing, financing, and hedging [2] - The mutual empowerment between offshore finance and RMB internationalization is not merely additive but forms an organic closed loop through demand traction, supply response, and institutional guarantees, which determines the efficiency and quality of strategic advancement [2] Group 3 - Demand-side structural differentiation is evident, with the RMB settlement proportion in goods trade with Belt and Road countries reaching 28% in 2024, a 15 percentage point increase since 2020, but the penetration rate for private enterprises is only 12%, significantly lower than the 45% for state-owned enterprises [3] - The service trade demand is evolving, with a significant increase in the need for financial services across cross-border trade, education, healthcare, and tourism, yet the RMB's share in personal cross-border payments is less than 5% [4] Group 4 - The supply side of offshore RMB services shows a concentration in major financial centers like Hong Kong, Singapore, London, and Dubai, with Hong Kong dominating offshore RMB deposits (60%) and bond issuance (75%) [5] - There is a notable gap in inclusive financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with 80% of outward-oriented SMEs finding offshore financial services too costly and complex [6] Group 5 - Institutional constraints include balancing the demands for openness with risk prevention, as capital account convertibility remains a significant limitation [7] - The direction for institutional innovation should focus on gradual opening and precise risk control, with the need to replicate successful local experiences and establish a coherent regulatory framework [7] Group 6 - International experiences from Japan and the UK/US provide valuable insights, with Japan's "dual-track" profit repatriation mechanism and the US's offshore dollar strategy showcasing different paths to currency internationalization [8][9] - The challenges posed by the dominance of stablecoins in the digital currency landscape highlight the need for proactive measures in the digital RMB space to avoid losing ground in internationalization [12] Group 7 - The lack of inclusive offshore financial services is a core bottleneck for the RMB's internationalization, with a significant gap between the willingness and actual capability of enterprises to use RMB for settlement [13] - The "Matthew effect" in market mechanisms leads to a preference for serving high-net-worth clients, leaving SMEs underserved and highlighting the need for policies that address this imbalance [14] Group 8 - A comprehensive action plan is proposed to enhance the offshore financial ecosystem, focusing on market collaboration, policy incentives, technological empowerment, and capacity building [15] - The establishment of a three-pole network involving Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Dubai is suggested to enhance global service capabilities and facilitate RMB's internationalization [15][16] Group 9 - Policy measures should aim to lower institutional costs and stimulate market participation, including tax incentives and revolutionary simplification of approval processes [17][26] - Enhancing the infrastructure for RMB usage, including upgrading clearing and payment networks, is essential for improving liquidity and convenience [25] Group 10 - Strengthening risk prevention mechanisms and building international trust through intelligent regulatory systems are crucial for the RMB's acceptance as a reserve currency [27] - The long-term strategy for RMB to replace the USD involves maintaining economic and trade leadership, establishing a mature RMB pricing system for commodities, and enhancing the offshore financial market's global service capacity [28][29]