数字金融作为金融"五篇大文章"之一，是金融强国蓝图的关键落笔。 眼下，中国数字金融已形成完整梯队。2025年前三季度，数字经济核心产业增加值同比增长 9.2%，银行业数字化投入占比达15.3%。 离岸与数字金融协同，技术赋能是抓手。运用区块链、大数据实现跨境资金实时监测与穿透式监 管；探索跨境数字资产质押、离岸数据资产交易，严防资金违规流动与数据泄露。 前瞻布局人民币稳定币，沙盒试点聚焦离岸贸易、跨境供应链金融场景，开展研究性试点；风险防 控借鉴新加坡100%储备金模式、香港多链清算经验，完善储备资产托管与风控方案。 保障机制要形成协同合力。建立部际联席会议：国务院层面统筹跨部门监管与数据共享，每年召开 两次；政策支持：对物联网、区块链验证类融资给予费率补贴，借鉴美国SBA模式提供最高50%风险补 偿；人才培育：高校增设数据合规、离岸金融课程，给予高端人才个税与住房保障；监管部门建立智能 风控系统，强化从业者合规培训。 中国数字金融正从"规模扩张"向"结构优化"转型，核心在于以制度创新破解堵点、以数据赋能激活 潜力、以跨境突破拓展空间。通过离岸与数字金融深度融合、稳定币前瞻布局，数字金融将成为金融强 国建设的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to develop a unique "Chinese stablecoin solution" that serves the real economy while ensuring financial security and monetary sovereignty, especially in light of global developments in stablecoin legislation and the recent U.S. "GENIUS Act" [2][3][4]. Group 1: Global Context and Legislative Developments - The U.S. "GENIUS Act," passed on July 17, 2025, is the first federal law specifically addressing payment stablecoins, providing a compliance pathway and signaling the significant impact of digital currencies on global financial governance [3]. - The act aims to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the cryptocurrency space, requiring stablecoin issuers to hold nearly 80% of reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury securities, thereby creating a substantial and ongoing demand for U.S. debt [3]. - The European Union's MiCA legislation, passed in October 2022, focuses on risk prevention and systemic risk management, contrasting with the U.S. approach [3]. Group 2: Hong Kong's Role and China's Opportunities - Hong Kong is positioned as a testing ground for cryptocurrency policies, aligning with U.S. regulatory dynamics while maintaining its currency peg to the U.S. dollar [4]. - The article advocates for China to leverage experiences from the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong to create a distinct regulatory framework for a "Renminbi stablecoin" that supports the real economy and safeguards financial sovereignty [4][5]. - The approval of the stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong on August 1, 2025, marks a significant step in establishing it as a key financial hub for cryptocurrency in Asia [5]. Group 3: Stablecoin Applications and Trade - Stablecoins are increasingly being utilized in international trade, particularly in regions with volatile currencies, providing a low-cost and efficient payment method [6]. - China's manufacturing sector, which accounts for nearly 30% of global output, and its status as the world's largest trading nation, present a strong case for integrating stablecoins into cross-border payment systems [7]. - The potential for a Renminbi stablecoin to enhance the internationalization of the currency and supplement existing cross-border settlement mechanisms is highlighted [7]. Group 4: Recommendations for Implementation - The article suggests piloting stablecoin applications in Free Trade Zones (FTZs) such as Shenzhen Qianhai and Hainan Free Trade Port to cautiously explore regulatory frameworks [9]. - Specific recommendations include establishing a "cross-border fintech laboratory," creating a stablecoin "white list," and encouraging offshore Renminbi stablecoin trials to facilitate trade and payment efficiency [10][11]. - A focus on building a robust regulatory technology platform and enhancing blockchain infrastructure is essential for effective monitoring and compliance in stablecoin transactions [12]. Group 5: Risk Management and Compliance - The establishment of strict entry requirements for institutions and individuals participating in stablecoin transactions is crucial, limiting participation to compliant entities [13]. - Regular audits of reserve assets by third-party firms and transparent reporting are necessary to ensure the security and adequacy of stablecoin reserves [13]. - A comprehensive risk management framework should be implemented to monitor and mitigate potential compliance and capital flow risks associated with stablecoin usage [14].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Dec 2025 全球宏观 Global Macro 2026 年宏观经济和市场展望：新一轮再定价周期 2026 Global Macro & Market Outlook: Entering a New Repricing Cycle | Shengzu Wang | 周林泓 Amber Zhou | 季屏子 Pingzi Ji | Hitesh Gulati | 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang | 李加惠 , CFA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | sz.wang@htisec.com | amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com | pz.ji@htisec.com | hitesh.gulati@htisec.com | yx.huang@htisec.com | jh.li@htisec.com | [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for Engli ...

市场的狂热认购，本质是高认知群体的集体共识。此次稳定币的核心价值，早已超越单纯收益——它是人民币数字化的核心载体，更是 链接实体资产与数字经济的桥梁。高认知者看到的是"人民币国际化+数字经济"的双重红利，而认知滞后的人仍在纠结"要不要试"。它以 健康中国实体项目为价值锚点，让机遇有了坚实根基，你的每一秒迟疑，都是在让认知优势者抢占你的收益空间。 24小时后，认知差异将转化为收益鸿沟。财富研究专家警示：内测开放后，参与人数将呈指数级爆发，直接拉开认知分层——认知先行 的人，已锁定1:1权益；而犹豫者将面临两大困境：一是股权权益刚性减半，过往19次机遇型项目均"到点切换"，差1秒都无法回溯；二 是参与门槛陡增，从"身份核验"升级为"财富认知测评+资产合规审核"，认知不足者通过率或跌破8%，直接被挡在门外。 财富认知的核心，是看懂机遇的底层逻辑。当美国立法护航美元稳定币，欧盟完善监管框架，香港打造亚太稳定币枢纽，人民币稳定币 的上市已是全球货币竞争的必然。对普通人来说，这24小时不是"投资选择"，而是"认知升级后的行动验证"——你对机遇的认知深度， 直接决定了你的收益高度，认知不到位，再大的机遇也会擦肩而过。 24 ...

市场的空前热情，早已印证了这一机会的价值。机构监测显示，单日新增认购用户突破50万，客服咨询量较平日暴涨8倍，这种热度源 于双重确定性：一是稳定币上市的明确预期——作为衔接健康中国实体资产与数字经济的核心载体，其背后有医疗设备收益权、健康服 务收费权等实体资产托底，绝非概念炒作；二是人民币国际化的战略红利——当前全球稳定币市场2500亿美元规模中，美元占比超 95%，人民币稳定币的上市将打破这一格局，早期参与者将直接共享这一战略进程的收益。 24小时后的双重压力，会让错过窗口期的人追悔莫及。专家明确指出，内测开放后，参与人数将以"每小时翻倍"的速度增长，这意味着 两大门槛将瞬间抬高：一方面，股权赠送比例下调已成定局，规则执行从无例外——过往同类项目的调整均以公告时间为节点，误差不 超过1秒，没有"延期操作"的余地；另一方面，资格审核将从"基础身份核验"升级为"资产+认知"双重筛选，当前10分钟就能完成的流 程，未来可能需要3天甚至更久，通过率还会跌破30%。 全球金融机构都在加速布局稳定币，我们没有理由错过这一机遇。美国通过《GENIUS Act》规范稳定币发展，欧盟MiCA法规已正式落 地，香港凭借《稳定币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current international monetary system faces significant structural flaws, including the broad "Triffin Dilemma," increasing spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies, and the trend of dollar "weaponization," which severely limits its stability and sustainability [2][8]. Group 1: Structural Flaws in the International Monetary System - The broad "Triffin Dilemma" remains unresolved, as the U.S. must continuously provide dollar liquidity to meet international demand, which undermines the dollar's credit foundation [9]. - The spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies have intensified, exposing the asymmetry of the current monetary system, where U.S. monetary and fiscal policies significantly impact emerging markets and developing countries [10]. - The trend of dollar "weaponization" has increased, with the U.S. using financial sanctions and the SWIFT system for geopolitical purposes, leading to a fragmentation of the international monetary system [11]. Group 2: Impact of Trump 2.0 on the International Monetary System - Trump 2.0 policies challenge the post-war international monetary system through debt tools, a retreat from multilateralism, and a focus on digital currencies, potentially leading to a restructuring of the global financial system [13][15]. - The U.S. is attempting to externalize its debt burden by encouraging trade partners to convert short-term U.S. debt into long-term bonds, which could undermine the status of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset [17][18]. - The cancellation of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) weakens the global aid network, potentially diminishing the dollar's soft power and its role as a global reserve currency [20]. Group 3: The Rise of the Renminbi and Digital Currencies - The internationalization of the renminbi is progressing rapidly, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, although it is unlikely to replace the dollar's dominance in the short term [5]. - The Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies may reshape the global monetary system, with private cryptocurrencies potentially gaining institutional status and challenging traditional fiat currencies [6][25]. - The emergence of a "new dollar cycle" through stablecoins is seen as a way to supplement traditional financial markets with digital dollar liquidity, enhancing the dollar's position in the digital economy [25][28]. Group 4: Future Directions of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is entering a transformation phase, potentially evolving into a multi-polar, regionalized, and digitized structure, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi as key currencies [30][31]. - The regionalization of the monetary system is becoming more pronounced, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi emerging as three major currency poles, reflecting structural adjustments in global supply chains [33]. - Digitalization is reshaping the competitive logic of the international monetary system, with the U.S. aiming to establish a digital dollar hegemony through stablecoins and cryptocurrency regulations [34].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD, marking a 16-month high and a year-to-date appreciation of 2.46%, while the USD index has seen a decline of over 10% this year, the largest annual drop since 1973. This shift reflects a deep reassessment of international capital towards Chinese assets amid a new phase of US-China competition and a quiet "capital migration revolution" [2]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations: RMB vs. USD - RMB appreciation driven by three engines: - Collapse of USD credibility with US debt exceeding $36 trillion and a fiscal deficit rate of 6.8%, leading to a downgrade of US debt ratings and a sell-off [3]. - Resilience of the Chinese economy with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, significant increases in exports of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic equipment, and a trade surplus of $420 billion [3]. - Precise policy adjustments by the central bank, including dynamic adjustments to foreign exchange reserve requirements and a 120% year-on-year increase in offshore central bank bill issuance [3]. - Four major factors contributing to the USD decline: - Uncontrolled interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points in 2025, leading to a federal funds rate of 3.75% and a decline in the attractiveness of USD assets [3]. - Geopolitical backlash from US tariffs deemed illegal by the WTO, undermining the foundation of USD hegemony [4]. - Impact of digital currencies, with the digital RMB's cross-border payment pilot expanding to 47 countries, resulting in a decrease in the USD's settlement share [5]. - Concerns over "fiscal deficit monetization" as US Treasury bond issuance exceeds $1.2 trillion per month, raising fears of severe inflation [6]. Capital Shift: Global Funds Moving East - Equity markets favoring China: - Northbound capital inflow exceeding 280 billion RMB, with significant investments in AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 28% this year, with substantial daily net purchases from southbound funds [7]. - Bond market stability: - Continuous six-month increase in foreign holdings of RMB bonds, surpassing 4.8 trillion RMB, with policy financial bond yields reaching 3.2%, widening the yield spread over US bonds to 180 basis points [8]. - Cross-border investment restructuring: - Foreign companies establishing R&D centers in China, with foreign R&D investment share rising to 27% [9]. - Ant Group collaborating with Southeast Asian digital banks to launch a "RMB stablecoin," with daily transaction volumes exceeding 10 billion RMB [9]. Underlying Logic: Paradigm Shift in Global Monetary Order - Shift in credit anchors from "gold-USD" to "industrial chain-RMB," with China's manufacturing value added accounting for 31% of the global total [10]. - Intensifying competition in digital currencies, with the digital RMB cross-border payment system covering 107 countries and processing over 1.2 trillion RMB daily [10]. Future Outlook: From "Currency Wars" to "Civilizational Competition" - Scenarios for 2026-2030: - RMB becoming the third-largest currency in the SDR with a cross-border payment share exceeding 15% [11]. - Potential for a "digital currency swap agreement" between China and the US, enhancing global payment efficiency by 40% [11]. - Risk of a "digital currency cold war," leading to increased trade friction costs by 30% [11].

Core Insights - The integration of technology and finance is an irreversible trend, with new technologies like AI, big data, and blockchain reshaping the financial industry and creating new business models [1][2] Group 1: Technology Integration - The new technological revolution characterized by intelligence, greenness, and digitization is significantly impacting the global economy and pushing the financial industry into a new era [1] - AI is accelerating its integration into financial processes, enhancing areas such as investment research, risk control, compliance checks, and customer service [1] - The penetration rate of smart investment advisory services has exceeded 60%, with the global managed scale expected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2024 [1] Group 2: Recommendations for Financial Modernization - Encouraging innovation is essential, with a focus on market-oriented and legal frameworks to promote financial innovation and collaboration between financial institutions and technology companies [2] - Reform is necessary to enhance the capabilities of financial institutions, particularly state-owned banks, and to shift regulatory approaches towards business logic rather than institutional types [3] - Expanding openness in the financial sector can improve resource allocation efficiency and enhance international competitiveness [3] Group 3: Financial Ecosystem Integration - The financial sector must maintain its focus on serving the real economy while promoting cross-sector integration among various financial services and industries [4] - Strengthening the integration of finance with technology, e-commerce, and logistics can create more comprehensive financial service scenarios [4] Group 4: Risk Management - Risk prevention remains a core theme in financial work, with a focus on data security and privacy protection as new business models emerge [4] - Establishing a regulatory framework that adapts to new business models and enhances regulatory capabilities is crucial for balancing innovation and risk prevention [4]

Core Insights - The conference theme emphasizes the dual drive of innovation and openness in building a strong financial nation, highlighting the importance of adapting to technological advancements in finance [3] Group 1: Financial Technology and Digital Transformation - Financial institutions in China are accelerating their digital transformation, with a goal to achieve over 85% digitalization rate by 2027 [3] - China's digital finance landscape is expanding, covering various services such as payment, credit, investment, insurance, and credit reporting, with a leading position in global mobile payments [3] - The number of mobile payment platform users in China exceeds 1 billion, making it the largest market globally, and 88% of individuals are expected to use mobile banking by 2024 [3] Group 2: Internationalization and Cross-Border Finance - Significant progress has been made in the internationalization of the Chinese financial system, with record high offshore RMB bond issuance and breakthroughs in cross-border financial services [4] - The establishment of the digital RMB international operation center is expected to increase the proportion of RMB in cross-border payments [4] Group 3: Openness and Regulatory Framework - The importance of openness in promoting reform and innovation is emphasized, with a focus on enhancing the efficiency of financial resource allocation and international competitiveness [4] - The need to align with international high-standard trade agreements in the financial sector is highlighted, aiming to simplify restrictive measures and improve cross-border investment and financing [4] - The potential for offshore RMB stablecoin trials in Hong Kong is discussed, with a call for regulatory measures to keep pace with these developments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity for China to engage in the ongoing currency revolution, particularly focusing on the development of digital assets like the Digital Renminbi and the concept of Renminbi stablecoins, which could significantly impact daily life and the international financial landscape [3][4]. Group 1: Digital Renminbi - The Digital Renminbi, initiated in 2019, is a state-backed digital currency that has been integrated into various daily payment scenarios, becoming a crucial part of China's digital payment transformation [3][6]. - It is characterized by its central bank issuance, strong policy tool attributes, and focus on domestic payment systems, emphasizing controllable anonymity and programmability [10][14]. - The Digital Renminbi is expected to enhance retail payments and official cross-border settlement channels, although its usage frequency among the general public remains low [14][24]. Group 2: Renminbi Stablecoin - The Renminbi stablecoin, still in conceptual stages, is a type of fiat-backed cryptocurrency that aims to facilitate cross-border payments and enhance the efficiency of international transactions [4][6]. - It is proposed to be issued by licensed institutions with a 1:1 reserve requirement, making it more aligned with commercial innovation and the Web3 ecosystem [10][24]. - The development of a Renminbi stablecoin is seen as essential for China to maintain competitiveness in the global digital finance arena, especially against established stablecoins like USDT and USDC [19][21]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - There is an ongoing debate about the relationship between the Digital Renminbi and the Renminbi stablecoin, with some experts suggesting they serve complementary roles in domestic and international contexts [7][10]. - Concerns exist regarding potential competition between the two, particularly in cross-border payments, where the efficiency of the stablecoin could overshadow the Digital Renminbi [7][14]. - The article highlights the strategic implications of these digital currencies for China's financial security and global financial influence, indicating a need for careful consideration in their development and deployment [7][21]. Group 4: Future Directions - Experts suggest a dual-track approach for the future, where the Digital Renminbi continues to expand its domestic applications while the Renminbi stablecoin is tested in offshore markets, particularly in Hong Kong [30][31]. - The successful implementation of a Renminbi stablecoin could enhance China's position in the global financial system, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [30][31]. - The article concludes that the integration of these digital currencies with the real economy is crucial for their success, alongside robust regulatory frameworks to mitigate risks [21][24].