2026.02. 08 本文字数：2970，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 与此同时，证监会同步发布具有实操意义的附件《关于境内资产境外发行资产支持证券代币的监管指 引》（下称《指引》），首次正面定义现实世界资产（RWA）代币化，并确立"境内严禁、境外严 管"的监管原则。 八部门协同发力联合绞杀非法金融活动，由此形成了对虚拟货币全链条的严格管控。 人民币稳定币境外发行被禁 2025年以来，稳定币市场热度持续攀升的同时，风险防控与合规边界也为各方所关注。伴随《稳定 币条例》在香港落地生效，香港稳定币发行人牌照发放进程备受市场瞩目。在牌照申请热潮中，部分 内地科技巨头的布局与走向成为焦点。此前，相关机构曾参与香港稳定币测试与筹备，一度被视为首 批牌照的热门候选。 此次《通知》在重申虚拟货币相关活动属于非法金融活动的基础上，首次以规范性文件形式明确核心 监管要求：挂钩法定货币的稳定币在流通中变相履行法定货币部分功能，未经相关部门依法同意，境 内外任何单位和个人不得在境外发行挂钩人民币的稳定币；同时严格规范境内主体境外展业行为，境 内主体及其控制的境外主体未经批准不得在境外发行虚拟货币。 "这会直接掐断 ...

"这会直接掐断国内机构相关稳定币的违法发行源头。" 被市场称为虚拟货币领域"史上最严"的监管新规近日正式落地。 2月6日，央行联合八部门发布《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》（下称《通 知》），再次重申虚拟货币相关业务活动属于非法金融活动，并首次明确任何单位和个人不得在境外发 行挂钩人民币的稳定币。 人民币稳定币境外发行被禁 2025年以来，稳定币市场热度持续攀升的同时，风险防控与合规边界也为各方所关注。伴随《稳定币条 例》在香港落地生效，香港稳定币发行人牌照发放进程备受市场瞩目。在牌照申请热潮中，部分内地科 技巨头的布局与走向成为焦点。此前，相关机构曾参与香港稳定币测试与筹备，一度被视为首批牌照的 热门候选。 此次《通知》在重申虚拟货币相关活动属于非法金融活动的基础上，首次以规范性文件形式明确核心监 管要求：挂钩法定货币的稳定币在流通中变相履行法定货币部分功能，未经相关部门依法同意，境内外 任何单位和个人不得在境外发行挂钩人民币的稳定币；同时严格规范境内主体境外展业行为，境内主体 及其控制的境外主体未经批准不得在境外发行虚拟货币。 "这会直接掐断国内机构相关稳定币的违法发行源头。"博通分析金融 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and eight other departments emphasize the need to prevent and manage risks associated with virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, highlighting the implications for monetary sovereignty and the legal status of stablecoins linked to fiat currencies [1][2]. Regulatory Framework - The notification reiterates that virtual currencies do not hold the same legal status as fiat currencies, and any related business activities within China are deemed illegal [2][3]. - It specifies that no domestic or foreign entities may issue stablecoins linked to the Renminbi without proper authorization [2][3]. - The notification categorizes the tokenization of real-world assets as activities that convert ownership and income rights into tokens, which are subject to strict regulatory oversight [2][3]. Enforcement Measures - Activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets and associated intermediary services are prohibited unless authorized by relevant authorities [3][4]. - The notification mandates that any domestic entities engaging in overseas tokenization activities must comply with strict regulatory principles, ensuring that similar risks are managed under the same rules [3][5]. - It calls for enhanced management of financial, intermediary, and information technology service institutions to ensure compliance with the new regulations [4][5]. Coordination and Implementation - The notification outlines a collaborative framework between central and local authorities to effectively manage risks associated with virtual currencies and asset tokenization [5][6]. - Central departments, including the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, are tasked with establishing mechanisms to address these risks, while local governments are responsible for implementing these measures within their jurisdictions [6].

Core Insights - Digital finance is a key component of China's financial power blueprint, with a complete structure already formed. The core industry value added of the digital economy grew by 9.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, and the banking sector's digital investment accounted for 15.3% [1] Group 1: Structural Challenges - Structural contradictions are evident, including lagging institutional supply, with regulatory sandboxes covering only 8.7% of prefecture-level cities, and limited promotion of cross-border innovative products [1] - Data factor allocation is inefficient, with less than 30% of quality data, leading to difficulties in rights confirmation and token circulation, creating "data islands" [1] - Cross-border scenarios are insufficiently penetrated, with digital RMB cross-border transactions accounting for only 3.2%, and reliance on the SWIFT system limiting currency diversity [1] - Financing obstacles exist for small and medium-sized tech enterprises, which often have data without assets or assets without financing, resulting in inadequate valuation and risk control systems [1] Group 2: Proposed Solutions - To break the deadlock, it is suggested to open up the system by establishing a nationwide unified regulatory sandbox, covering core cities in 31 provinces by the end of 2026, led by the National Financial Regulatory Administration [1] - Aiming for full coverage of public data rights confirmation by 2026, a national unified registration platform will be built, clarifying data ownership and processing rights for enterprises and operational rights for personal data after desensitization [2] - A three-dimensional valuation model will be developed to assess "data quality + scenario value + market demand," and the entire pledge registration process will be streamlined to three working days [2] Group 3: Cross-Border Enhancements - The digital RMB's cross-border application will be deepened, with plans to connect with over 10 payment systems of economic entities by 2027, enabling multi-currency real-time settlement [3] - A cross-border data trusted exchange system will be established, breaking the reliance on SWIFT, with 29 countries connected to CIPS [3] - The establishment of offshore RMB bonds and core scenarios for cross-border supply chain finance will be concentrated in Hainan Free Trade Port and Shanghai Free Trade Zone by 2028 [3] Group 4: Collaborative Mechanisms - A joint inter-ministerial meeting will be established to coordinate cross-departmental regulation and data sharing, with biannual meetings [3] - Policy support will be provided for financing related to IoT and blockchain verification, with risk compensation up to 50% modeled after the US SBA [3] - Talent cultivation will be enhanced by adding courses on data compliance and offshore finance in universities, along with tax and housing guarantees for high-end talent [3] Group 5: Strategic Transition - China's digital finance is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "structural optimization," focusing on institutional innovation to resolve bottlenecks, empowering potential through data, and expanding space through cross-border breakthroughs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to develop a unique "Chinese stablecoin solution" that serves the real economy while ensuring financial security and monetary sovereignty, especially in light of global developments in stablecoin legislation and the recent U.S. "GENIUS Act" [2][3][4]. Group 1: Global Context and Legislative Developments - The U.S. "GENIUS Act," passed on July 17, 2025, is the first federal law specifically addressing payment stablecoins, providing a compliance pathway and signaling the significant impact of digital currencies on global financial governance [3]. - The act aims to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the cryptocurrency space, requiring stablecoin issuers to hold nearly 80% of reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury securities, thereby creating a substantial and ongoing demand for U.S. debt [3]. - The European Union's MiCA legislation, passed in October 2022, focuses on risk prevention and systemic risk management, contrasting with the U.S. approach [3]. Group 2: Hong Kong's Role and China's Opportunities - Hong Kong is positioned as a testing ground for cryptocurrency policies, aligning with U.S. regulatory dynamics while maintaining its currency peg to the U.S. dollar [4]. - The article advocates for China to leverage experiences from the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong to create a distinct regulatory framework for a "Renminbi stablecoin" that supports the real economy and safeguards financial sovereignty [4][5]. - The approval of the stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong on August 1, 2025, marks a significant step in establishing it as a key financial hub for cryptocurrency in Asia [5]. Group 3: Stablecoin Applications and Trade - Stablecoins are increasingly being utilized in international trade, particularly in regions with volatile currencies, providing a low-cost and efficient payment method [6]. - China's manufacturing sector, which accounts for nearly 30% of global output, and its status as the world's largest trading nation, present a strong case for integrating stablecoins into cross-border payment systems [7]. - The potential for a Renminbi stablecoin to enhance the internationalization of the currency and supplement existing cross-border settlement mechanisms is highlighted [7]. Group 4: Recommendations for Implementation - The article suggests piloting stablecoin applications in Free Trade Zones (FTZs) such as Shenzhen Qianhai and Hainan Free Trade Port to cautiously explore regulatory frameworks [9]. - Specific recommendations include establishing a "cross-border fintech laboratory," creating a stablecoin "white list," and encouraging offshore Renminbi stablecoin trials to facilitate trade and payment efficiency [10][11]. - A focus on building a robust regulatory technology platform and enhancing blockchain infrastructure is essential for effective monitoring and compliance in stablecoin transactions [12]. Group 5: Risk Management and Compliance - The establishment of strict entry requirements for institutions and individuals participating in stablecoin transactions is crucial, limiting participation to compliant entities [13]. - Regular audits of reserve assets by third-party firms and transparent reporting are necessary to ensure the security and adequacy of stablecoin reserves [13]. - A comprehensive risk management framework should be implemented to monitor and mitigate potential compliance and capital flow risks associated with stablecoin usage [14].

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025, primarily due to rising protectionism and uncertainty[2][16]. - Global inflation is expected to decrease to 4.2% in 2025 and further to 3.7% in 2026, with significant disparities among different economies[2][17]. China Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2%, slightly above the annual target of 5%, with a forecasted growth of approximately 4.8% in 2026[3][32]. - Structural challenges persist in the Chinese economy, including an aging population and weakened consumer spending, which may hinder long-term growth[3][32]. US Economic Outlook - The US economy has maintained a strong growth rate of 2.8% over the past two years, with a projected GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026, supported by fiscal policies and AI investments[4][34]. - Inflation in the US is expected to remain above target levels, impacting monetary policy decisions[4][34]. Asset Class Performance - Emerging market investments are anticipated to improve significantly starting in 2025, while developed markets have shown steady performance due to high profitability and AI themes[5][39]. - Gold has outperformed other assets as a hedge against inflation and currency risks, while global bond returns remain under pressure due to high interest rates[5][40]. Market Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise to 5600 points in 2026, driven by improvements in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings[6][54]. - The Hang Seng Index is projected to reach 34,000 points, reflecting a broader market recovery and increased capital inflows[6][54].

Core Insights - The launch of a compliant stablecoin pegged to the RMB is imminent, marking a significant step in the internationalization of the RMB and presenting a critical opportunity for wealth recognition [1][4] - The reduction of equity distribution from 1:1 to a lower ratio signifies a shift from inclusive wealth opportunities to a more selective process, highlighting the importance of early participation [1][4] - The market's enthusiastic subscription reflects a collective consensus among high-cognition groups, recognizing the dual benefits of RMB internationalization and digital economy [3][4] Market Dynamics - A surge in subscription volume, increasing by 15 times within a day, indicates a growing awareness and action among those who understand the opportunity [1][3] - The impending open testing phase is expected to lead to an exponential increase in participants, creating a clear divide based on cognitive awareness [4] - The transition from simple identity verification to a more complex assessment involving wealth cognition and asset compliance will significantly raise participation barriers, potentially excluding those with insufficient understanding [4] Strategic Implications - The stablecoin is positioned as a core vehicle for RMB digitalization, serving as a bridge between real assets and the digital economy [3] - The upcoming changes in equity rights and participation criteria will act as a final filter for wealth opportunities, emphasizing the necessity for timely action based on cognitive readiness [4] - The global context, including U.S. legislative support for USD stablecoins and the EU's regulatory framework, underscores the competitive landscape for RMB stablecoins [4]

市场的空前热情，早已印证了这一机会的价值。机构监测显示，单日新增认购用户突破50万，客服咨询量较平日暴涨8倍，这种热度源 于双重确定性：一是稳定币上市的明确预期——作为衔接健康中国实体资产与数字经济的核心载体，其背后有医疗设备收益权、健康服 务收费权等实体资产托底，绝非概念炒作；二是人民币国际化的战略红利——当前全球稳定币市场2500亿美元规模中，美元占比超 95%，人民币稳定币的上市将打破这一格局，早期参与者将直接共享这一战略进程的收益。 24小时后的双重压力，会让错过窗口期的人追悔莫及。专家明确指出，内测开放后，参与人数将以"每小时翻倍"的速度增长，这意味着 两大门槛将瞬间抬高：一方面，股权赠送比例下调已成定局，规则执行从无例外——过往同类项目的调整均以公告时间为节点，误差不 超过1秒，没有"延期操作"的余地；另一方面，资格审核将从"基础身份核验"升级为"资产+认知"双重筛选，当前10分钟就能完成的流 程，未来可能需要3天甚至更久，通过率还会跌破30%。 全球金融机构都在加速布局稳定币，我们没有理由错过这一机遇。美国通过《GENIUS Act》规范稳定币发展，欧盟MiCA法规已正式落 地，香港凭借《稳定币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current international monetary system faces significant structural flaws, including the broad "Triffin Dilemma," increasing spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies, and the trend of dollar "weaponization," which severely limits its stability and sustainability [2][8]. Group 1: Structural Flaws in the International Monetary System - The broad "Triffin Dilemma" remains unresolved, as the U.S. must continuously provide dollar liquidity to meet international demand, which undermines the dollar's credit foundation [9]. - The spillover effects of U.S. domestic policies have intensified, exposing the asymmetry of the current monetary system, where U.S. monetary and fiscal policies significantly impact emerging markets and developing countries [10]. - The trend of dollar "weaponization" has increased, with the U.S. using financial sanctions and the SWIFT system for geopolitical purposes, leading to a fragmentation of the international monetary system [11]. Group 2: Impact of Trump 2.0 on the International Monetary System - Trump 2.0 policies challenge the post-war international monetary system through debt tools, a retreat from multilateralism, and a focus on digital currencies, potentially leading to a restructuring of the global financial system [13][15]. - The U.S. is attempting to externalize its debt burden by encouraging trade partners to convert short-term U.S. debt into long-term bonds, which could undermine the status of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset [17][18]. - The cancellation of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) weakens the global aid network, potentially diminishing the dollar's soft power and its role as a global reserve currency [20]. Group 3: The Rise of the Renminbi and Digital Currencies - The internationalization of the renminbi is progressing rapidly, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, although it is unlikely to replace the dollar's dominance in the short term [5]. - The Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies may reshape the global monetary system, with private cryptocurrencies potentially gaining institutional status and challenging traditional fiat currencies [6][25]. - The emergence of a "new dollar cycle" through stablecoins is seen as a way to supplement traditional financial markets with digital dollar liquidity, enhancing the dollar's position in the digital economy [25][28]. Group 4: Future Directions of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is entering a transformation phase, potentially evolving into a multi-polar, regionalized, and digitized structure, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi as key currencies [30][31]. - The regionalization of the monetary system is becoming more pronounced, with the dollar, euro, and renminbi emerging as three major currency poles, reflecting structural adjustments in global supply chains [33]. - Digitalization is reshaping the competitive logic of the international monetary system, with the U.S. aiming to establish a digital dollar hegemony through stablecoins and cryptocurrency regulations [34].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD, marking a 16-month high and a year-to-date appreciation of 2.46%, while the USD index has seen a decline of over 10% this year, the largest annual drop since 1973. This shift reflects a deep reassessment of international capital towards Chinese assets amid a new phase of US-China competition and a quiet "capital migration revolution" [2]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations: RMB vs. USD - RMB appreciation driven by three engines: - Collapse of USD credibility with US debt exceeding $36 trillion and a fiscal deficit rate of 6.8%, leading to a downgrade of US debt ratings and a sell-off [3]. - Resilience of the Chinese economy with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, significant increases in exports of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic equipment, and a trade surplus of $420 billion [3]. - Precise policy adjustments by the central bank, including dynamic adjustments to foreign exchange reserve requirements and a 120% year-on-year increase in offshore central bank bill issuance [3]. - Four major factors contributing to the USD decline: - Uncontrolled interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points in 2025, leading to a federal funds rate of 3.75% and a decline in the attractiveness of USD assets [3]. - Geopolitical backlash from US tariffs deemed illegal by the WTO, undermining the foundation of USD hegemony [4]. - Impact of digital currencies, with the digital RMB's cross-border payment pilot expanding to 47 countries, resulting in a decrease in the USD's settlement share [5]. - Concerns over "fiscal deficit monetization" as US Treasury bond issuance exceeds $1.2 trillion per month, raising fears of severe inflation [6]. Capital Shift: Global Funds Moving East - Equity markets favoring China: - Northbound capital inflow exceeding 280 billion RMB, with significant investments in AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 28% this year, with substantial daily net purchases from southbound funds [7]. - Bond market stability: - Continuous six-month increase in foreign holdings of RMB bonds, surpassing 4.8 trillion RMB, with policy financial bond yields reaching 3.2%, widening the yield spread over US bonds to 180 basis points [8]. - Cross-border investment restructuring: - Foreign companies establishing R&D centers in China, with foreign R&D investment share rising to 27% [9]. - Ant Group collaborating with Southeast Asian digital banks to launch a "RMB stablecoin," with daily transaction volumes exceeding 10 billion RMB [9]. Underlying Logic: Paradigm Shift in Global Monetary Order - Shift in credit anchors from "gold-USD" to "industrial chain-RMB," with China's manufacturing value added accounting for 31% of the global total [10]. - Intensifying competition in digital currencies, with the digital RMB cross-border payment system covering 107 countries and processing over 1.2 trillion RMB daily [10]. Future Outlook: From "Currency Wars" to "Civilizational Competition" - Scenarios for 2026-2030: - RMB becoming the third-largest currency in the SDR with a cross-border payment share exceeding 15% [11]. - Potential for a "digital currency swap agreement" between China and the US, enhancing global payment efficiency by 40% [11]. - Risk of a "digital currency cold war," leading to increased trade friction costs by 30% [11].