内容提要： "稀土威胁论"可能被夸大了。中国虽垄断稀土元素精炼，但依赖进口稀土合金，欧美出口合金价值远超进口稀土元素；美国收购LCM补 齐稀土全产业链；西方生物基提取、纳米分离、磁铁回收及稀土替代技术迅猛发展；历史出口配额被停业证明资源工具化无效。现代博 弈核心在于制度创新和文明开放生态，而非资源垄断。 长期以来，稀土被视为我国的贸易工具——一种足以让西方屈服的战略资源。尤其在实施出口管制之后，"稀土威胁论"更是甚嚣尘上。 然而，事实并非如此，稀土威胁可能被严重夸大了。 一、从稀土矿到稀土元素再到稀土合金，外国依赖中国的稀土元素，但中国更依赖外国的稀土合金。 西方媒体几乎天天都在为稀土短缺发出警告。尤其在中国实施稀土出口管制之后，人们甚至产生了这样的错觉，中国的稀土随时都可以 动摇西方的工业基础。然而，只需看一下贸易数据，真相截然不同。 德国的稀土回收企业Heraeus Remloy。 去年，欧盟共进口了总额约750万美元的精炼稀土元素，其中三分之二来自中国。德国的进口额为220万美元，其中四分之三来自中国。 也就是说，稀土元素涉及的只是区区几百万美元的交易，无论是在欧盟的外贸总额中，还是在德国GDP中的占比 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has not abandoned its trade war strategy, as evidenced by the recent resumption of investigations against China and threats of increased tariffs related to rare earth elements [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized China's control over the rare earth market and indicated that the U.S. is preparing to raise tariffs if China continues to restrict rare earth exports [1][3] - Despite the recent trade discussions in Busan, the U.S. has shown a pattern of inconsistency and pressure tactics, revealing underlying anxieties in its trade negotiations [3][4] Group 2 - China currently holds approximately 60% of global rare earth mining and 90% of refining capacity, making it difficult for the U.S. to reduce its dependence on China in the short term [3] - The U.S. is attempting to form a "rare earth alliance" with countries like Japan and Thailand, but experts suggest it will take 5 to 10 years to establish a complete refining supply chain [3][4] - The U.S. Trade Representative announced ongoing investigations into the Phase One trade agreement, which could lead to the reactivation of Section 301 tariffs against China [6][8] Group 3 - The recent trade discussions resulted in a temporary agreement where China would pause new rare earth export controls, while the U.S. would suspend certain restrictions for a year [8][10] - Key issues remain unresolved, such as whether the U.S. will suspend the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods and the status of chip restrictions, which are critical to finalizing any trade agreement [8][10] - China is adopting a cautious approach in negotiations, emphasizing the need for clear execution mechanisms to avoid falling into a "commitment trap" due to the U.S.'s past inconsistencies [8][10] Group 4 - The U.S. is facing a strategic dilemma, as its tariff strategy appears to be losing effectiveness, leading to a defensive posture in trade negotiations [6][10] - The potential for renewed conflict remains, particularly if the U.S. perceives that China's rare earth export controls are not lifted as expected [10] - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China indicates that the latter remains the U.S.'s primary strategic rival, necessitating a firm stance from China in future negotiations [10]