文 | 万联万象 当我们谈论人工智能时，脑海中浮现的往往是ChatGPT、Deepseek流畅的对话，Nano-Banana绚丽的画 作，或是自动驾驶汽车精准的判断。然而，这些智能表象之下，隐藏着一个庞大而坚实的物理世界—— 数百万台昼夜运转的服务器、如迷宫般错综复杂的电路、如森林般密集的散热装置。 这个世界，是由金属构成的。 AI革命不仅是算法与代码的革命，更是一场实实在在的材料革命。每一次神经网络参数的更新，每一 轮大模型的训练，都在物理世界转化为对特定金属材料的需求。 在这场算力军备竞赛中，铜、银以及众多稀有金属，正被赋予全新的使命与价值。 如果说算法是AI的灵魂，算力是AI的肌肉，那么这些金属材料就是支撑肌肉的骨骼与血管系统。它们 的特性决定了算力能否高效传输、热量能否及时消散、信号能否精准传递。没有这些金属的支撑，再精 妙的算法也只能是空中楼阁。 随着全球科技巨头竞相投入数千亿美元建设AI基础设施，一个问题日益凸显：在AI时代的金属版图 中，谁将成为真正的"王者"？让我们深入AI产业链的底层，揭开这场金属之王的竞争序幕。 成为AI"血液"的铜 现代AI芯片的功耗已达到惊人水平。单个高端训练芯片的功耗 ...

尽管今年10月美国与中国就解除对稀土供应限制达成协议，但中国仍然限制向美国提供生产永磁材料所需的稀土元素。根据彭博社12月24日的报道，该消息 来源于市场参与者的透露。 诺维昂磁业公司的联合创始人斯科特·邓恩指出，除了中国之外，全球其他地区的年产永磁材料的能力约为5万吨。然而，中国以外地区的稀土矿产资源远不 足以支持如此大的生产规模。 12月18日，中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东就稀土相关出口管制的最新情况做出回应。何亚东表示，自从实施稀土出口管制以来，中国相关主管部门已向出口 商进行了政策解读，并随着经验的积累，部分中国出口商已经达到了申请通用许可的基本要求。据了解，目前已有部分中国出口商提交的通用许可申请已获 得批准。 报道中提到，多位消费者、制造商、政府官员和贸易专家表示，尽管中国已增加了成品（主要是永磁材料）的供应量，美国工业仍然无法获得生产这些产品 所需的原材料，而这正是美国政府的一项重要优先事项。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the rare earth industry, particularly concerning U.S.-China trade relations and supply chain stability [11]. Core Insights - Despite an agreement to lift restrictions on rare earth elements, China continues to limit the supply of essential materials needed for U.S. production of permanent magnets and other products [11] - The U.S. industrial sector remains unable to independently source the raw materials required for these products, while China has increased the supply of finished products like permanent magnets [11] - China's restrictions on raw materials hinder the U.S. efforts to establish its own rare earth processing industry, which is crucial for producing magnets used in various applications, including consumer goods and military systems [11] Summary by Sections - **Trade Relations**: The U.S. and China have reached a trade truce, but ongoing tensions persist, particularly regarding the supply of rare earth materials [3][4] - **Supply Chain Issues**: U.S. companies face significant challenges in obtaining raw materials from China, which affects their production capabilities [7][8] - **Market Dynamics**: There is a notable discrepancy between the increase in China's exports of finished products and the stagnation of U.S. exports, indicating a potential imbalance in the supply chain [6][8]

SHMET 网讯：全球咨询机构Kearney与世界经济论坛联合发布的新报告显示，全球锂资源供应量仅能 满足2035年预测需求的三分之一（35%）。 报告警示称，全球推进电气化、数字化及减排的步伐正快于支撑这些进程所需矿产资源的供应速度。 在题为《从矿产到兆瓦：为电动汽车、数据中心和电网构建韧性》的新报告中，他们发现到2035年锂供 应量需增长一倍以上。 全球数据中心容量预计到2035年将增长至当前的三倍，支撑这一增长的是2030年前高达3万亿至7万亿美 元的投资。 报告进一步警示，稀土元素和铜产量必须提升50%以上才能满足预期需求。预计到2035年，电动汽车将 占锂总需求量的86%、钴需求的55%以及稀土总消耗量的三分之一。 即便所有已宣布的项目都得以实施，现有矿山和冶炼厂也仅能满足锂和石墨需求预测的35-45%。 分析显示，2025年全球电动汽车需求将突破2000万辆，到2030年新车销售中电动汽车占比将超过四成 （40%），全球汽车年度投资额将达3.5万亿美元。 报告指出，电池和电机工厂可在1至3年内实现规模化生产，但新采矿项目通常需要10至20年开发周期， 导致整个价值链出现重大时间错配。 为实现电气化 ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays believes that the AI investment boom is triggering a global supercycle in commodities, presenting significant opportunities for investors [3][5]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Commodity Demand - Barclays estimates that capital expenditure by cloud service providers will exceed $2.5 trillion over the next five years, with copper demand being the most prominent [5][6]. - The report highlights that the demand for specific minerals and rare earth elements will surge due to ongoing upgrades in AI infrastructure [3][5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that $500-600 billion in new investments will be needed for copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt over the next 15 years, with copper accounting for half of this demand [7][8]. Group 2: Beneficiary Countries - Mining-exporting countries like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are positioned to benefit significantly from this investment cycle [10][9]. - Australia, Indonesia, and Brazil are also expected to see substantial gains from the export of other minerals and rare earth elements [11]. - Despite global mineral extraction being widespread, China dominates the refining sector, processing nearly 50% of global refined minerals, indicating a sustained tight trade relationship with the world [11]. Group 3: Historical Insights and Trade Conditions - Historical commodity boom periods, particularly those led by China from 2002-2007 and 2010-2014, show that fixed capital formation in commodity-exporting countries significantly contributes to GDP growth [13][15]. - The current supercycle is characterized by a decoupling of copper prices from oil prices, which traditionally have been correlated [20][24]. - This decoupling creates favorable trade conditions for countries that are net oil importers but major exporters of key minerals, enhancing their currencies' strength [24][28].

Core Insights - The Barclays research report highlights that the ongoing upgrade of AI infrastructure will lead to a significant increase in demand for specific minerals and rare earth elements, benefiting mineral-exporting countries over a multi-year investment cycle [1][4]. Group 1: AI Investment and Commodity Demand - The demand for copper is particularly emphasized as the most prominent beneficiary among AI-driven commodities, with countries like Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Australia expected to experience prolonged investment prosperity [1][5]. - The report estimates that capital expenditures from hyperscale cloud service providers will exceed $2.5 trillion over the next five years, indicating that related commodities such as energy, electrical infrastructure, and cooling systems will benefit from this AI investment cycle [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Trade Dynamics - Historical commodity booms, particularly those driven by China in the early 21st century, show that commodity-exporting countries saw significant increases in fixed capital formation, contributing to GDP growth [10][13]. - The report notes a positive correlation between high export growth and the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER), especially during commodity bull markets [14]. Group 3: Copper and Oil Price Decoupling - A notable feature of the current cycle is the decoupling of copper prices from oil prices, which traditionally moved in tandem. This decoupling is seen as a significant opportunity for investors [16][19]. - Countries that are major exporters of AI-critical minerals and net oil importers, such as Chile and Peru, will benefit from improved trade conditions, providing stronger support for their currencies [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Currencies - The report suggests that currencies like the Chilean peso, Peruvian sol, and Australian dollar are expected to perform well due to the copper-oil decoupling, indicating a new macroeconomic landscape driven by AI investments [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strategic implications of the U.S. reliance on China for rare earth elements, particularly in the context of AI competition and national security concerns [1][3][5]. Group 1: Rare Earth Dependency - The U.S. is heavily dependent on China for rare earth elements, with China controlling 80% of global rare earth refining capacity and the U.S. lagging in separation technology [3][5]. - The F-35 fighter jet exemplifies the U.S. rare earth dilemma, as each jet requires 417 kg of rare earth permanent magnet materials, while the only U.S. processing plant can only support 120 jets annually [3][5]. Group 2: AI and Strategic Competition - China has transitioned from a "follower" to a "runner-up" in AI, making significant advancements in quantum computing, autonomous driving, and smart drone technology [3]. - The potential for China to set global AI standards poses a risk of creating a "digital rentier" system, similar to Boeing's historical dominance in the aviation industry [5]. Group 3: Economic Disparities - The article contrasts the booming AI sector on Wall Street with the struggles of the automotive industry in Detroit, highlighting a disconnect in the economy due to rare earth shortages [3]. - China's rare earth export certification system aims to ensure that rare earths are used for civilian technology rather than military applications, with 90% of exports to the EU directed towards green technologies [5]. Group 4: Global Alliances and Technological Advancement - China is forming a "rare earth + AI" ecosystem with countries like Brazil and Australia, utilizing proprietary ion adsorption methods that reduce energy consumption by 40% and enhance purity [5][7]. - The article emphasizes that true strength comes from collaboration and shared technological advancements rather than monopolistic practices, positioning China as a leader in global tech cooperation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of "rare earth threats" may be exaggerated, as China relies on imported rare earth alloys while the value of rare earth alloy exports from Europe and the US far exceeds that of imported rare earth elements [1][3][5] Group 1: Dependency Analysis - Foreign countries depend on China's rare earth elements, but China is more dependent on foreign rare earth alloys [3][5] - In 2022, the EU imported approximately $7.5 million worth of refined rare earth elements, with two-thirds coming from China, while the EU's imports of rare earth alloys exceeded $100 million, with only 30% sourced from China [5][7] - The US imported 90% of its rare earth elements from China in 2024, but the total value was only $25 million, while exporting $190 million worth of rare earth alloys to China [5][7] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - China imports about $1.4 billion worth of rare earth alloys annually, while its exports of rare earth elements are only around $400 million [7][9] - The US has been rapidly integrating its rare earth supply chain, with USA Rare Earth acquiring UK-based LCM to enhance its supply chain capabilities [8][9] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Western countries are making significant advancements in rare earth refining and alternative technologies, aiming to break China's monopoly on refining 60%-90% of different rare earth elements by 2025 [16][19] - Innovations include bio-based extraction methods, advanced separation technologies, and recycling techniques, which are expected to enhance local processing capabilities and reduce reliance on Chinese supplies [16][19][21] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Implications - Historical attempts by China to use rare earths as a trade tool through export quotas led to short-term price spikes but ultimately resulted in decreased demand as Western industries sought alternatives [27][29] - The current landscape indicates that while China maintains an advantage in primary processing, it is losing ground in the more valuable downstream products like rare earth alloys and magnets [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The company is primarily focused on the research and production applications of rare earth elements and has not engaged in thorium element activities [1] Company Summary - The company, Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), is actively involved in the research and production of rare earth elements [1] - The company has clarified that it does not involve itself with thorium elements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently focused on the research and production applications of rare earth elements and has not engaged in thorium element activities [1] Company Summary - The company, Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), is dedicated to the research and production of rare earth elements [1] - The company has explicitly stated that it does not involve itself with thorium elements [1]