内容提要： "稀土威胁论"可能被夸大了。中国虽垄断稀土元素精炼，但依赖进口稀土合金，欧美出口合金价值远超进口稀土元素；美国收购LCM补 齐稀土全产业链；西方生物基提取、纳米分离、磁铁回收及稀土替代技术迅猛发展；历史出口配额被停业证明资源工具化无效。现代博 弈核心在于制度创新和文明开放生态，而非资源垄断。 长期以来，稀土被视为我国的贸易工具——一种足以让西方屈服的战略资源。尤其在实施出口管制之后，"稀土威胁论"更是甚嚣尘上。 然而，事实并非如此，稀土威胁可能被严重夸大了。 一、从稀土矿到稀土元素再到稀土合金，外国依赖中国的稀土元素，但中国更依赖外国的稀土合金。 西方媒体几乎天天都在为稀土短缺发出警告。尤其在中国实施稀土出口管制之后，人们甚至产生了这样的错觉，中国的稀土随时都可以 动摇西方的工业基础。然而，只需看一下贸易数据，真相截然不同。 德国的稀土回收企业Heraeus Remloy。 去年，欧盟共进口了总额约750万美元的精炼稀土元素，其中三分之二来自中国。德国的进口额为220万美元，其中四分之三来自中国。 也就是说，稀土元素涉及的只是区区几百万美元的交易，无论是在欧盟的外贸总额中，还是在德国GDP中的占比 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the global competition to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earth elements, particularly in the context of recent technological advancements that could provide alternatives to traditional rare earth materials [1][2][3]. Group 1: Technological Developments - German manufacturer VAC has developed a neodymium-iron-boron alloy that does not rely on heavy rare earth elements, achieving performance comparable to traditional rare earth magnets [1]. - Niron Magnetics in the U.S. has begun trial production of iron-nitride permanent magnets, producing five tons annually, which, despite lower performance, offers a cost-effective and rare earth-free alternative [2]. - Research institutions like the Max Planck Institute and collaborations between Cambridge University and DeepMind are exploring various potential substitutes for rare earth materials, with some already in laboratory testing [2]. Group 2: Strategic Responses - The U.S. government acknowledges its heavy reliance on imports for high-performance permanent magnets and is implementing fiscal subsidies and tax incentives to support domestic rare earth production and research into rare earth-free alternatives [2]. - The European Union has launched the "European Critical Raw Materials Alliance" to reduce dependency on Chinese rare earths, signaling a coordinated effort among member states [3]. - G7 countries are considering setting a price floor for rare earths and imposing taxes on Chinese exports, reflecting a complex strategy to manage both market stability and supply risks [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the emergence of alternative materials, traditional rare earth materials still dominate the market due to their superior performance in high-temperature stability and magnetic energy density [7]. - The trend towards "de-rare earth" solutions is expected to gradually erode market share for Chinese rare earths, particularly in mid to low-end applications where cost advantages of alternatives can be leveraged [7][5]. - The article emphasizes the need for China to enhance its rare earth processing and application technologies to maintain its competitive edge in the global market [7][9].