Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the equity market had a volume - driven rally. The real estate, steel, and building materials sectors were strong, while the banking sector declined. The bond market adjusted, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.67% on Friday, up 2.2bp from the previous week. The convertible bond market mostly rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 0.76% for the week [1][8][9]. - In the short term, convertible bond supply may significantly shrink. The follow - up momentum of the convertible bond market has weakened, and valuations have been further compressed. It is recommended to focus on balanced convertible bonds or high - price, low - premium and non - redeemable in the short - term equity - biased varieties. For those with high requirements for drawdown, consider reducing positions [2][17]. - With the disclosure of mid - year report performance forecasts, attention should be paid to sectors such as consumer goods, technology, power grid equipment, and innovation drugs. Also, be cautious about bonds with a high proportion of exports to the US [3][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends (2025/7/7 - 2025/7/11) - **Stock Market**: The equity market rose with volume. Real estate, steel, and building materials sectors performed well due to policy expectations and "anti - involution" themes. The non - banking sector was strong driven by the stablecoin theme, while the banking sector declined. Different sectors showed different performances on each trading day [8]. - **Bond Market**: The bond market adjusted. Factors such as the postponement of Trump's equal - tariff effective date, the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3500, and real estate policy rumors suppressed bond market sentiment. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.67% on Friday, up 2.2bp from the previous week [1][9]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.76% for the week, the median price rose by 0.95%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity increased by 2.07%. The overall market conversion premium rate decreased by 1.29% compared with the previous week. Sectors like non - banking finance, coal, and computer in the convertible bond market led the gains, while social services, banking, and automotive sectors lagged. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 3405.76 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 681.15 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [9][12][15]. Viewpoints and Strategies (2025/7/14 - 2025/7/18) - **Supply Outlook**: Convertible bond supply may significantly shrink in the short term. The approval of the "potential new bond" Fudan Microelectronics expired, and there are only 5 issues in the pending - issuance list that have passed the listing committee, with a total scale of less than 5 billion yuan. Also, the delisting of existing bonds is accelerating [2][17]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Due to the intensified supply - demand contradiction, it is recommended to focus on balanced convertible bonds that can quickly consume the premium rate with high - volatility underlying stocks or high - price, low - premium and non - redeemable in the short - term equity - biased varieties. Consider reducing positions for those with high drawdown requirements [2][17]. - **Sector Focus**: Pay attention to sectors such as consumer goods (appliances, auto parts, two - wheeled vehicles), technology (PCB, copper - clad laminates, data center power supplies), power grid equipment, sea - wind power, energy storage, innovation drugs, and chemical pharmaceuticals. Be cautious about bonds with a high proportion of exports to the US [3][18]. Valuation Overview - As of July 11, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in different parity intervals are at different percentile levels since 2010 and 2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of bonds with a parity below 70 yuan is - 1.04%, at the 4%/0% percentile since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds is 33.92%, at the 64%/45% percentile since 2010/2021, and the difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks is - 13.38%, at the 27%/32% percentile since 2010/2021 [19]. Primary Market Tracking - **Last Week (2025/7/7 - 2025/7/11)**: Guanghe Convertible Bond announced its issuance, and Luwei and Huachen Convertible Bonds were listed. Guanghe Convertible Bond, with an issuance scale of 4.9 billion yuan, is for the Guangdong Lufeng Nuclear Power Plant Project. Luwei Convertible Bond, with an issuance scale of 615 million yuan, is mainly for semiconductor and high - precision flat - panel display mask expansion projects. Huachen Convertible Bond, with an issuance scale of 460 million yuan, is for new - energy power equipment manufacturing and digital factory construction projects [27][28][29]. - **Next Week (2025/7/14 - 2025/7/18)**: Xizhen and Yongxi Convertible Bonds will be listed. Xizhen Convertible Bond, with an issuance scale of 520 million yuan, is for the Langfang Zhenhua Automobile Parts Project. Yongxi Convertible Bond, with an issuance scale of 1.165 billion yuan, is for multi - dimensional heterogeneous advanced packaging technology R & D and industrialization projects [30][31]. - **Overall Pending Issuance**: As of July 11, there are 75 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 116.32 billion yuan, including 2 issues approved for registration (total scale of 2.11 billion yuan) and 3 issues passed by the listing committee (total scale of 2.62 billion yuan) [32].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - On July 2, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.15%, IH rose 0.17%, IC fell 0.26%, and IM fell 0.39% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 803 lots, IH increased by 5,144 lots, IC decreased by 3,207 lots, and IM decreased by 16,123 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 676 lots, IH decreased by 656 lots, IC decreased by 1,936 lots, and IM decreased by 8,772 lots [1][2]. b) Basis of Stock Index Futures Graphs of the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM from June 6 to July 2 were presented [4]. c) Changes in Positions of the Top 20 Members in Stock Index Futures - For IF contracts, the changes in long and short positions of different contracts varied. For example, in IF2507, long positions increased by 393 lots and short positions decreased by 585 lots [5]. - For IH contracts, the changes in long and short positions also differed among contracts. For instance, in IH2507, long positions increased by 57 lots and short positions increased by 513 lots [5]. - For IC contracts, in IC2509, long positions decreased by 1,411 lots and short positions decreased by 1,014 lots [5]. - For IM contracts, in IM2507, long positions decreased by 2,240 lots and short positions decreased by 2,144 lots [5]. d) Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. - Important drivers include statements from the Minister of Finance and the member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, as well as the performance of the stock market, such as the differentiation of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices, and the performance of various concept stocks [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a decline, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showing negative performance, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the midday session, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3359.78 points, down 0.86%, while the Shenzhen Component Index is at 10072.42 points, down 1.01%, and the ChiNext Index is at 2032.19 points, down 1.1% [1][2]. - A total of 4654 stocks declined, while only 713 stocks rose, reflecting a broad market downturn [1][2]. Sector Analysis - Various sectors are showing mixed performance, with themes like stablecoins, controlled nuclear fusion, military industry, and new consumption experiencing pullbacks, while solid-state batteries and humanoid robots are performing well [2][3]. - The oil and gas extraction and service sector increased by 0.52%, while controlled nuclear fusion decreased by 4.11% [3]. Institutional Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the Shanghai Composite Index is facing resistance around the 3400-point mark, with a need for increased trading volume to boost market sentiment [4]. - Financial analysts from Caitong Securities suggest that the 3400-point level is a significant trading zone, and the market's inability to break through this level has created a psychological barrier among investors [5]. - There is an expectation for policy-driven breakthroughs, with a recommendation to focus on structural opportunities in sectors like AI applications and semiconductors [5].