证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 转债市场周报 权益回调中展现"退可守"属性 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日） 股市方面，上周市场震荡下跌，在地缘政治局势紧张、海外 AI 泡沫担 忧加剧、美国 9 月非农数据超预期导致降息预期走弱等因素影响下，市 场风险偏好明显下降，各行业板块出现普跌，具备防御属性的银行板块 跌幅较小。债市方面，上周初资金面总体偏紧，随着税期缴款结束、以 及央行持续净投放下，后半周资金转为均衡偏松；市场风险偏好走弱， 但股债跷跷板效应并不明显，债市全周窄幅震荡；周五 10 年期国债利 率收于 1.82%，较前周上行 0.26bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收跌，中证转债指数全周-1.78%，价 格中位数-1.89%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周-6.70%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比+7.72%。个券层面，路维（掩膜版）、鼎龙（半导体）、 浩瀚（网络智能化）、恒锋（智慧城市信息服务）、家联（3D 打印）转 债涨幅靠前；中能（电网设备）、立中（铝合金锭&已公告强赎）、豫 光（贵金属&已公告强赎）、天赐（电解液&已公告强赎）、宏发（继电 ...

Core Insights - Yongxi Electronics experienced a 5.05% increase in stock price, reaching 32.03 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 197 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.54%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 13.148 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Yongxi Electronics (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. is located in Yuyao City, Zhejiang Province, established on November 13, 2017, and listed on November 16, 2022 [1] - The company's main business involves integrated circuit packaging and testing, with revenue composition as follows: system-level packaging products 41.16%, flat no-lead packaging products 37.79%, high-density fine-pitch bump flip-chip products 14.67%, wafer-level testing products 4.24%, and other products 1.61% [1] Shareholder Information - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Yongxi Electronics, a fund under Southern Fund holds a position. The Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) reduced its holdings by 11,800 shares in the third quarter, now holding 2.2388 million shares, which accounts for 0.8% of circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) was established on September 29, 2016, with a latest scale of 76.63 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 27.78%, ranking 1837 out of 4212 in its category, while the one-year return is 24.32%, ranking 1864 out of 3956 [2] - The fund manager, Cui Lei, has been in the position for 7 years and 13 days, managing total assets of 122.76 billion CNY, with the best fund return during the tenure being 181.49% and the worst being -15.93% [2]

Core Insights - Gansu listed companies reported robust growth in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving record-high revenues and total assets exceeding 900 billion yuan, showcasing the resilience and transformation of the regional industry [1] Revenue Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 34 A-share listed companies in Gansu achieved a total revenue of 1730.47 billion yuan, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 2.69%, accounting for 17.36% of the local GDP [1] - Three companies surpassed 10 billion yuan in revenue, with Baiyin Nonferrous Metals leading at 726.43 billion yuan, followed by Jiugang Hongxing at 237.57 billion yuan and Huatian Technology at 123.80 billion yuan [2][3] Profitability - Gansu listed companies collectively reported a net profit of 52.65 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of nearly 62%, ending a downward trend since 2022 [3] - 23 companies achieved profitability, with 13 companies reporting net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan, while only 5 companies incurred losses exceeding 1 billion yuan [3][4] Asset Growth - By the end of the third quarter, total assets of Gansu listed companies reached 9338.73 billion yuan, a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 8.57% [6] - The number of companies with total assets exceeding 100 billion yuan remained at 12, with Lanzhou Bank being the first in the region to surpass 500 billion yuan in total assets [6][7] Net Asset Increase - Total net assets of Gansu listed companies reached 2050.64 billion yuan, marking the first time exceeding 2000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.59% [9] - Eight companies reported net assets exceeding 100 billion yuan, with Lanzhou Bank being the first to exceed 400 billion yuan [9][11] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for Gansu listed companies reached 251.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 492.09%, nearing the historical high of 254.33 billion yuan in 2021 [13] - Four companies reported cash inflows exceeding 20 billion yuan, with Lanzhou Bank being the first to exceed 100 billion yuan in operating cash flow [13][14] R&D Investment - Total R&D expenditure for Gansu listed companies was 3.173 billion yuan, maintaining a historical high despite a slight year-on-year decline [16] - Eight companies reported R&D expenses exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Huatian Technology leading the expenditure [16][17] Sector Performance - The technology sector, represented by Huatian Technology, showed strong growth with revenues reaching 123.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.55%, and net profit of 5.43 billion yuan, up 51.98% [20] - The resource sector, led by Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, showed recovery with revenue growth of 5.21% and a reduction in losses [22] - The power sector, represented by Gansu Energy, achieved revenue of 65.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.64%, and net profit of 15.82 billion yuan, up 14.16% [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Qizhong Technology (688352), has demonstrated strong growth in its main business of integrated circuit packaging and testing, with a notable increase in revenue and a focus on technological innovation and customer relationships [10]. Group 1: Customer Structure - The company's current OLED customer base includes notable clients such as Ruiding, Yunyin Valley, Jichuang North, Lianying, Shengxianwei, Xinying, Yisiwei, and Yuchuang [2]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company possesses outstanding technological research and innovation capabilities, having developed proprietary technologies in the field of display driver chip packaging, including high-reliability manufacturing techniques for fine-pitch gold bumps and core component design technologies [4]. - The company has a strong advantage in technical transformation and software/hardware development, with a specialized team of over 20 professionals dedicated to smart manufacturing and equipment modification [5]. - The management team is experienced and stable, primarily composed of internally trained personnel with over 15 years of experience in the advanced packaging and testing industry, which supports the company's leading position in the market [5]. Group 3: Pricing Trends and Order Visibility - The company aims to maintain stable pricing as a priority, with future adjustments based on market supply and demand conditions [7]. - Currently, customers typically provide a demand forecast of about three months [8]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 1.605 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.2% to 185 million yuan [10]. - The gross profit margin for the company stands at 28.6% [10]. Group 5: Market Ratings and Predictions - In the last 90 days, four institutions have rated the stock, with three buy ratings and one hold rating [11]. - Detailed profit forecasts from various institutions indicate expected net profits of 336 million yuan for 2025, 400 million yuan for 2026, and 510 million yuan for 2027 [12].

Summary of the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: 华天科技 (Hua Tian Technology) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Packaging Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: For the first nine months of 2025, total revenue reached 12.38 billion CNY, a 17.55% increase from 10.5 billion CNY in the same period last year [3][4] - **Net Profit**: Net profit for the same period was 540 million CNY, up 51.98% from 357 million CNY year-on-year [3][4] - **Gross Margin**: Gross margin slightly increased to 12.34% from 12.29% [3][4] Performance by Production Base 1. **Tianshui Base**: - Revenue: 3.26 billion CNY, up 21.99% from 2.67 billion CNY [4] - Net Profit: 200 million CNY, down 48.96% from 390 million CNY [5] - Gross Margin: Decreased to 11.86% from 13.68% [5] 2. **Xi'an Base**: - Revenue: 2.777 billion CNY, up 12.26% from 2.468 billion CNY [6] - Net Profit: 210 million CNY, up 52.4% from 140 million CNY [6] - Gross Margin: Increased to 17.81% from 16.46% [6] 3. **Nanjing Base**: - Revenue: 2.596 billion CNY, up 19.66% from 2.17 billion CNY [7] - Net Profit: 55 million CNY, down from 590 million CNY [7] 4. **Kunshan Base**: - Revenue: 1.51 billion CNY, up 10.7% from 1.367 billion CNY [8] - Net Profit: 88 million CNY, up 6.55% from 82 million CNY [8] - Gross Margin: Stable at 18% [8] 5. **Unisime Base**: - Revenue: 2.33 billion CNY, up 28% from 1.82 billion CNY [9] - Net Profit: 57 million CNY, down 28.23% from 79 million CNY [9] 6. **Jiangsu Base**: - Revenue: 290 million CNY, a significant increase from 73 million CNY last year [10] Production Capacity and Utilization - Overall capacity utilization across the five major production bases is approximately 85% [11] - Xi'an and Nanjing bases are operating at full capacity, contributing to revenue growth [11][12] Market Trends and Pricing - **Market Growth**: Notable growth in storage and automotive electronics sectors [14] - **Raw Material Prices**: Significant price increases in substrates, with a rise of 20%-30% noted [15][16] - **Pricing Mechanism**: The company has a pricing mechanism in place to pass on raw material cost increases to customers [16][17] Capital Expenditure - **2025 Capital Expenditure**: Expected to reach around 45 billion CNY, up from the initial estimate of 30-35 billion CNY due to better-than-expected market conditions [20][21] - **2026 Outlook**: Anticipated capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated at 30-40 billion CNY [22] Advanced Packaging Developments - **2.5D/3D Packaging**: A new subsidiary focused on advanced packaging has been established, with production lines completed and currently in the verification phase [24][27] - **Future Revenue Contribution**: Expected to contribute revenue, but the amount is anticipated to be modest initially [26] M&A Activity - **Acquisition of Huayi Electronics**: The acquisition is expected to enhance revenue and profit, with projected sales of approximately 1.078 billion CNY and net profit of around 54-55 million CNY for the first eight months of the year [37][41][42] Future Outlook - **Q4 2025 Expectations**: Anticipated to at least match Q3 performance, with more clarity on 2026 projections expected after customer visits in late 2025 [44][46] Additional Insights - The company is navigating challenges posed by geopolitical tensions affecting technology transfer and market access [27][28] - The focus remains on domestic markets due to restrictions on foreign orders [27][28] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the company's performance, market conditions, and future outlook.

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Qipai Technology (SH 688216) held its fourth meeting of the fifth board of directors on October 30, 2025, via telecommunication voting, where it reviewed the proposal for the third quarter report of 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Qipai Technology is as follows: integrated circuit packaging and testing accounts for 89.57%, other businesses account for 5.94%, power device packaging and testing accounts for 4.03%, and wafer testing accounts for 0.46% [1] - As of the time of reporting, Qipai Technology has a market capitalization of 2.6 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [1][8]. Core Insights - The company, Tongfu Microelectronics (002156.SZ), reported a revenue of 20.116 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 860 million yuan, up 55.74% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.078 billion yuan, a 17.94% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 448 million yuan, which is a remarkable 95.08% increase year-on-year [6]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 15.26% and 4.94%, respectively, both showing improvements compared to the same period last year [6]. - The company is a core packaging and testing supplier for AMD, benefiting from the growth in advanced packaging driven by AI applications. It provides comprehensive services across various sectors, including AI, high-performance computing, and 5G [6][8]. Financial Performance - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with Q3 2025 gross margin at 16.18%, up 1.54 percentage points year-on-year, and net margin at 7.19%, up 2.86 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The report forecasts earnings per share of 0.80 yuan and 0.97 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 55 times and 45 times [8][10]. Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with multiple facilities in Jiangsu, Anhui, and Fujian, and has acquired stakes in AMD's facilities in Suzhou and Penang [6][8]. - The strategic acquisition of a 26% stake in Jinglong Technology is expected to enhance investment returns and provide stable financial benefits [8].

Core Viewpoint - Tongfu Microelectronics (002156) reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2025, indicating strong operational performance and effective management strategies [1] Financial Performance - The company's third-quarter revenue reached 7.078 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.94% [1] - Net profit for the third quarter was 448 million yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 95.08% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue amounted to 20.116 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.77% [1] - Net profit for the first three quarters was 860 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.74% [1] Product Performance - There was a notable increase in revenue from mid-to-high-end products, contributing to the overall revenue growth [1] Management Efficiency - The company has improved its overall efficiency significantly due to enhanced management and cost control measures [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8] Core Insights - The company is strategically investing in DRAM storage packaging through direct and indirect investments in Xinfeng Technology, aiming to enhance its capabilities in advanced packaging for 3D DRAM chips [4][11] - The partnership with Huadong Technology is expected to leverage both companies' resources to expand the 3D DRAM packaging business, addressing the growing market demand driven by AI infrastructure [5][11] - The company anticipates revenue growth, projecting revenues of 1.78 billion, 2.05 billion, and 2.40 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 186.49 million, 247.75 million, and 316.55 million yuan for the same years [8][10] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 15.93 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 137 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 30.3% [3][10] - The company holds a significant stake of 27.5445% in Xinfeng Technology after recent investments, which positions it to influence the operations of Xinfeng without consolidating it into its financial statements [4][11] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 21.22% in 2024, followed by 18.83% in 2025, and 14.93% in 2026 [10][13] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.19 yuan in 2024 to 0.37 yuan in 2027 [10][13]

Group 1 - Consumer prices remain stable, with core CPI showing a continuous rebound. In the first three quarters, the overall consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 1% in September, marking the highest level in nearly 19 months. The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, an expansion of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] - Food prices saw a larger decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% in the first three quarters, which impacted the CPI by approximately 0.32 percentage points. Energy prices also remained low, with a 3.3% year-on-year decline, affecting the CPI by about 0.25 percentage points [2] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a smaller decline of 2.9% in the third quarter compared to a 3.2% drop in the second quarter. The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed in August and September due to improved market competition and the ongoing construction of a unified national market [3] - Certain industries experienced a reduction in price declines, with the prices of photovoltaic equipment, lithium-ion batteries, and new energy vehicles decreasing by 11.4%, 5.1%, and 1.2% respectively, but with a narrowing of declines compared to the first half of the year [3] Group 3 - High-tech industries are witnessing price increases driven by macro policies and the development of new productive forces. The prices of integrated circuit packaging and testing rose by 3.0% year-on-year, while the prices of arts and crafts manufacturing surged by 12.7% due to the release of upgraded consumer demand [4]