华见早安之声 市场概述 美国宏观经济数据持续真空，投资者担忧泡沫风险， 获利了结的需求增强。美股开盘后下挫， 尾盘因微软预测数据中心供应紧缺将持续到2026年，美股自 低位拉起，不过三大美股指仍收跌。 美股科技七巨头走势分化，Meta涨超2%，英伟达再新高，苹果则跌超1.5%。投资者抛售周期性板块，转向防御性板块。 中概股指跌超2%。 美债同样遭到卖出，美债主要期限收益率普涨1-2基点。 美元涨0.72%，突破99、创两个多月新高。 比特币较日高一度下挫约3.3%。以太坊震荡走低3.7%。强势美元叠加以色列哈马斯和谈，贵金属盘中转跌， 黄 金跌1.70%、跌破4000美元； 白银历史性突破51美元后回落超5.6%、随后反弹。 美油日内跌逾1.3%。 亚洲时段，沪指四季度开门红，时隔10年突破3900点，沪金、沪铜大涨逾4%，半导体产业链午后回落，港股收跌，医药股下挫。 要闻 中国商务部连发四则公告， 事关稀土、锂电池、超硬材料等出口管制。 美国政府关门难解： 参院七次否决拨款案，特朗普威胁砍民主党项目，共和党领袖否认要动"大招"。 报道： 美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布9月CPI数据。 贝森特已面完11 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源： 内容翻译自ctee，谢谢 据报道，台积电近日曾经拜访高雄市政府，赠送高市政府台积电高雄P1厂试量产12吋的2纳米芯片。他说，相信 以台积电现在P1到P5厂的2纳米先进制程，全球最先进的制程就落在高雄。 *免责声明：本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体行业观察对该 观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系半导体行业观察。 END 今天是《半导体行业观察》为您分享的第 41 84 期内容，欢迎关注。 推荐阅读 加星标⭐️第一时间看推送，小号防走丢 求点赞 求分享 求推荐 陈其迈表示，当他收到台积电高雄厂的第一片2纳米芯片时，真的是百感交集，因为，高市府团队过去的不眠不 休，包括有时候晚上打电话给相关领导，让其忍受他不断的骚扰，因此，看到第一片量产的芯片，我们真的是非 常的感动。 陈其迈表示，台积电从到高雄投资设厂，到现在的试量产，进度比他们的预期更超前，相信以现在P1到P5的2纳 米的先进制程，高雄将是全球最先进制程的聚落。 陈其迈希望，高雄能够持续完善整个半导体的S廊带，包括先进的设备或者是材料， ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Major stock indices experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.40% to 3878.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.31% to 13521.11 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.06% to 3240.02 points [2] - Overall, nearly 3000 stocks rose, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry saw significant growth, with Huahong Semiconductor rising over 15% to reach a new historical high, and companies like Guolin Technology, Huamao Technology, and Wanye Enterprises hitting the daily limit [4] - SEMI data indicates that by Q2 2025, the market share of semiconductor equipment in mainland China is expected to exceed 30%, driven by domestic wafer fab capacity expansion and increased market penetration by local equipment manufacturers [4] - Notably, SMIC's capacity utilization rate is projected at 92.5% for the first half of 2025, while Huahong Semiconductor is expected to achieve 108.3% [4] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with stocks like Jingyi Co., Xiyang Co., and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit [5] - On September 29, the domestic cobalt market experienced a significant surge, with the average price of 1 cobalt reported at 337,000 yuan/ton, marking a substantial increase of 29,000 yuan, the largest single-day rise this year [5] Group 4: Other Sectors - The military industry saw gains, with companies like Huaqin Technology leading the increase [1] - Conversely, the financial sector faced a collective adjustment, with Yunan Rural Commercial Bank leading the decline [1] - The wind power equipment sector experienced fluctuations, with Zhenjiang Co. showing notable declines, while the consumer sector weakened, particularly in the liquor segment, with Huangtai Liquor leading the drop [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing structural opportunities in the semiconductor industry, particularly in China's wafer fabrication sector, which is expected to increase its global market share from 10% to 30%, indicating a potential threefold capacity expansion [1][2] - The semiconductor equipment sector has entered a main upward trend since 2025, with Q2 2025 revenues growing by 29% year-on-year to 22.4 billion yuan, and net profit increasing by 14% to 3.86 billion yuan, reflecting sustained industry growth [2] - The China Digital Economy Theme Index (931582) has seen a decline of 1.44% as of September 26, 2025, with notable performers including Jinghe Integrated (688249) rising by 19% and Unisoc (002049) increasing by 5.87% [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Digital Economy Theme Index account for 53.36% of the index, with notable companies including Dongfang Caifu (300059) and Zhongxin International (688981) [2][4] - The digital economy ETF (560800) closely tracks the China Digital Economy Theme Index, which includes companies involved in digital economy infrastructure and high digitalization applications [2] - The liquidity of the digital economy ETF shows a turnover rate of 2.61% with a trading volume of 18.65 million yuan, and an average daily trading volume of 35.92 million yuan over the past month [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations in the morning session, with the ChiNext index dropping over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.37 trillion, a decrease of 173.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - More than 2,500 stocks in the market declined [1] Sector Performance - Wind power concept stocks showed strong performance, with Jixin Technology achieving two consecutive trading limits and Weili Transmission hitting the daily limit [3] - The semiconductor industry chain saw partial recovery, with Saiwei Microelectronics touching the daily limit and reaching a historical high, while Unisoc also hit the daily limit [3] - The automotive sector was active, with Shuguang Co. and Sairisi both reaching the daily limit [3] - In contrast, gaming stocks collectively retreated, with Jibite hitting the limit down [3] - Sectors with notable gains included wind power equipment, military equipment, and pesticides, while gaming and computing hardware sectors faced significant declines [3] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.17% [3]

Market Overview - A total of 41 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 19 stocks faced limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 68% [1] - The three major indices showed divergence, with the ChiNext Index rebounding over 2% to reach a new three-year high [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Huasoft Technology achieved a five-day limit up streak, while Lianmei Holdings and Bluefeng Biochemical both recorded a four-day limit up streak [1][3] - The highest limit up stock, Huasoft Technology, saw a 10.03% increase, driven by its focus on photoresists [12] - The gaming, AI applications, and controllable nuclear fusion sectors led the gains, while the port shipping, precious metals, and oil and gas sectors faced declines [1][6] Sector Analysis - The AI infrastructure investment by Alibaba, amounting to 380 billion yuan, is expected to drive a trillion-scale AI ecosystem [5] - The storage system bidding scale reached a historical high of 17.7 GW/45.7 GWh in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 237.1% [9] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with companies like Longjiang Storage becoming a new unicorn in the sector [7][16] Key Stocks and Trends - Ningde Times and Sunshine Power both reached historical highs, reflecting a focus on major growth stocks in the market [6] - The copper market saw a spike due to a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, leading to a 3% increase in copper futures [8][30] - The gaming sector continues to show strong performance, with the National Press and Publication Administration issuing over 150 game licenses in a single month [6] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a trend favoring large-cap stocks in popular sectors, despite the risk of a downturn for underperforming small-cap stocks [10] - The semiconductor supply chain's heat is likely to spread to lower-tier stocks, as the market remains focused on high-performing segments [7][30]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 1.24% at $3,768.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.11% at $44.115 per ounce [3]. - U.S. EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels. WTI crude oil futures rose 2.21% to $64.81 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 2.02% to $68.32 per barrel [4]. - London base metals all rose, with LME copper up 3.46% at $10,320 per ton, LME zinc up 1.18% at $2,922.5 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.63% at $2,654.5 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.53% at $15,435 per ton [4]. - As of 2:20, U.S. soybeans fell 0.35%, U.S. corn fell 0.53%, U.S. soybean oil fell 0.22%, U.S. soybean meal fell 0.50%, and U.S. wheat fell 0.19% [5]. - As of 23:00, most domestic futures contracts closed higher. Soybean No. 2, palm oil, soybean meal, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and fuel oil rose more than 1%, while cotton fell slightly [5]. 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, 2025 [8]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of certain futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that 25,000 old urban residential areas are planned to be renovated in 2025, and 21,700 have been started from January to August [8]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent expressed disappointment that Fed Chair Powell did not set a clear agenda for interest rate cuts and called for a 100 - 150 basis point cut by the end of the year [8]. - The U.S. officially lowered tariffs on EU cars, effective August 1, 2025 [8]. - Fed's Daly fully supports the 25 - basis - point rate cut last week and said further policy adjustments may be needed [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Multiple departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to control cement and glass production capacity [12]. - As of the week of September 24, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 42.0%, up 5.7% week - on - week, and the weekly output was 701,000 tons, up 15.5% [12]. - As of September 24, 2025, China's methanol port inventory decreased by 65,600 tons to 1.4922 million tons [12]. - As of the week of September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.833 million barrels to 14.922 million barrels [12]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels in the week ending September 19, 2025, while strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels [13]. - Eight international oil companies in the Kurdistan region of Iraq reached a preliminary agreement to resume oil exports [13]. Metal Futures - Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. started annual maintenance on its first - phase polysilicon production line, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [16]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, gold, and silver futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [16]. - The Antamina copper mine in Peru expects zinc production to increase by 67% this year, offsetting a 12% decline in copper production [16]. - From January to July 2025, the global copper market had a surplus of 101,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 401,000 tons in the same period last year [17]. - An accident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia led to the suspension of operations, and the company lowered its copper and gold sales forecasts for the third quarter [17]. Black - Series Futures - In mid - September, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the daily output of iron and steel products increased [20]. - Beibu Gulf Port in Guangxi suspended manganese ore pick - up due to a typhoon, with limited impact on inventory [20]. - On September 24, the auction price of coking coal in Linfen market rose significantly, with an average increase of about 92 yuan per ton [20]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of iron ore, coke, and coking coal futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [21]. Agricultural Product Futures - The EU postponed the implementation of anti - deforestation regulations, providing a respite for palm oil exporters [23]. - As of September 20, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi decreased by about 300,000 tons compared with August [23]. - In August 2025, China's industrial feed output was 29.36 million tons, up 3.7% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year [25]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in July were 3.54 million tons, with a production of 5.11 million tons and an inventory of 2.57 million tons [26]. - The CNF price of Argentine soybeans imported into China decreased, and the cost of imported soybeans declined [26]. - A senior analyst predicted that Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may rise 27% in the first quarter of next year [26]. - The average pig - to - grain ratio in Guangdong Province entered the second - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the province will conduct frozen pork reserve purchases [26]. - Brazil's ANEC lowered its September soybean export forecast to 7.15 million tons and raised its corn export forecast to 7.61 million tons [27]. 3. Financial Markets Stocks - A - shares rose, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index hitting new highs. The semiconductor industry chain was strong, while AI hardware and the banking sector declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%, and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index rose 3.49%. The total trading volume was 2.35 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.37%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.64%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$13.7 billion [30]. - Chery Automobile's H - shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at a final offer price of HK$30.75 per share [31]. - Mercedes - Benz plans to acquire a minority stake in A - share listed Qianli Technology [32]. Industries - Six departments issued a work plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, aiming for green building materials revenue to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026 [33]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation solicited opinions on a new standard for food delivery platform services [35]. - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 145 domestic and 11 imported game licenses in September [35]. - The transportation department issued a plan to promote the integrated development of container rail - water intermodal transport, aiming for a 15% annual growth in volume by 2027 [35]. - From January to August, China's railway passenger volume increased by 6.7% year - on - year, freight volume increased by 2.6%, and fixed - asset investment increased by 5.6% [35]. - The "Blue Book on the Development of the Beidou Industry (2025)" showed that the total output value of China's satellite navigation and location - based services industry reached 575.8 billion yuan in 2024, and the number of new Beidou - supported terminals is expected to exceed 400 million by the end of 2028 [36]. Overseas Markets - The U.S. and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, with the U.S. lowering tariffs on EU cars and the EU getting tariff exemptions for certain products [37]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent criticized Fed Chair Powell for not setting a clear interest - rate - cut agenda and called for a 100 - 150 basis point cut by the end of the year. The Treasury is considering a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina [37]. - The U.S. government is negotiating to restructure a $2.3 billion energy department loan to Lithium Americas through equity investment [39]. - U.S. new home sales in August reached an annualized rate of 800,000 units, far exceeding expectations, and the inventory of new homes for sale decreased [39]. - Bank of England Governor Bailey said there is room for interest rate cuts, depending on inflation [40]. - Australia's CPI in August rose 3% year - on - year, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's inflation target range [40]. - Germany's September IFO business expectations and sentiment indices declined [41]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks fell slightly, with the Dow down 0.37%, the S&P 500 down 0.28%, and the Nasdaq down 0.33%. Chinese concept stocks generally rose [42]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX Index rising 0.23%, the French CAC40 Index falling 0.57%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rising 0.29% [42]. - Saudi Arabia is considering relaxing foreign ownership restrictions on listed companies, leading to a 5% rise in the Saudi All - Share Index [44]. - The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.3% to a new high, while the South Korean KOSPI Index fell 0.45% after hitting a new high [44]. - South Korean securities companies may resume U.S. stock trading services in early November [44]. Commodities - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of multiple futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [45]. - International precious metal futures fell, international oil prices rose, London base metals rose, and global steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year [45][46][47]. Bonds - Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and bond prices fell. The central bank conducted 401.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.7 billion yuan [48]. - Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash time deposits [48]. - The issuance scale of local government bonds from January to August reached 7.68 trillion yuan, a 41.9% year - on - year increase [48]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the issuance of UK government bonds faced weak demand [48][50]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed down 86 basis points at 7.1219, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.65% [51]. 4. Upcoming Data Releases and Events Data Releases - A series of economic data from Germany, France, the UK, the U.S., and China Hong Kong will be released on September 25 [53]. Events - Multiple central bank meetings, policy announcements, corporate events, and international meetings are scheduled for September 25 [55].

2025.09. 24 数的关键力量。沪指在3800点整数关口获得支撑，创业板指强势领跑，显示市场重心继续向 成长板块倾斜。 涨跌停比 :38:14 个股呈现出普涨格局,市场情绪回暖,赚钱效 应突出。半导体产业链是绝对核心,板块内超 20只个股涨停或涨超10%,掀起涨停潮,机器 人概念、光伏设备、电子化学品等高端制造板块 也涨幅居前,受节前利好兑现、资金流向等因素 影响,旅游酒店、银行等板块表现疲软。 资金情绪 主力资金净流入 20.08 ■ 亿元 两市成交额 2.33 万亿元 ▼ -6.27% 09/24 0 5 .19% 下百分点 加 世 球 加仓 31.19% 减仓 16.59% 按兵不动 52.22% 你觉得下个交易日是涨是跌? 两市成交额有所缩量,依然维持在高位,市场 "结构性"行情特征显著,资金高度集中在拥 有强产业逻辑和政策预期的板块,半导体板块 下的巨量成交额对维持市场人气和深市成交额 起到了关键支撑作用,金融与权重板块表现相 对疲软,一定程度上影响了沪市的成交活跃 度。 散户资金净流入 机构布局清晰,着眼于产业趋势进行调仓,资金大幅流入半导体产业链、光伏设备、电池、机器人、AI算 力,小幅流 ...

Market Overview - The three major stock indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3853.64 points, up 0.83% [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14 points, up 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 3185.57 points, up 2.28% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 167.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor industry chain, photovoltaic equipment, gaming, and BC battery concepts saw significant gains, while the tourism sector weakened slightly [6][7] - Notable sector performances included: - Semiconductor: +4.60% with a net inflow of 156.7 billion yuan [7] - BC Battery: +4.30% with a net inflow of 11.57 billion yuan [7] - Tourism and hotels: -0.71% with a net outflow of 5.08 billion yuan [7] Individual Stock Highlights - Key stocks in the semiconductor sector, such as ShenGong Co., Jiangfeng Electronics, and Changchuan Technology, hit the 20% limit up [8] - Lixun Precision saw a price increase of over 6%, reaching a historical high with a trading volume of nearly 30 billion yuan [8] - Major net inflows were observed in stocks like Sunshine Power, SMIC, and Tongfu Microelectronics, with net inflows of 1.342 billion yuan, 1.155 billion yuan, and 1.152 billion yuan respectively [9] Institutional Insights - Dexun Securities noted strong support for the Shanghai Index around 3800 points, with the semiconductor sector continuing to show activity, indicating bullish market sentiment [11] - Dongfang Securities highlighted potential volatility in global assets due to changes in overseas interest rates, while domestic liquidity remains loose, suggesting a focus on technology sectors for potential gains [11]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed a collective rise on September 24, with significant gains in major indices, indicating a positive market sentiment and active trading in specific sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy [3][4][12]. Market Performance - The three major indices closed higher: Shanghai Composite Index at 3853.64 points (+0.83%), Shenzhen Component Index at 13356.14 points (+1.80%), and ChiNext Index at 3185.57 points (+2.28%) [3][4]. - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 167.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor industry, photovoltaic equipment, gaming, and BC battery sectors saw the highest gains, while the tourism sector experienced a slight decline [6][8]. - Notable sector performances included: - Semiconductor sector up by 4.60% with significant inflows [7]. - Solid-state battery concept stocks also surged, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [8]. Individual Stock Highlights - Key stocks that performed well included: - Xiangcai Co. hitting the daily limit, and several securities firms like Guotou Capital and Changjiang Securities saw significant increases [8]. - Lixun Precision increased over 6%, reaching a historical high with a trading volume close to 30 billion yuan [8]. - Conversely, stocks like Heertai and Industrial Fulian faced significant sell-offs, with net outflows of 1.6 billion yuan and 1.386 billion yuan respectively [11]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electronics, computer, and pharmaceutical sectors, while coal and construction sectors experienced net outflows [9][10]. - Specific stocks with notable net inflows included Sunshine Power and SMIC, attracting 1.342 billion yuan and 1.155 billion yuan respectively [10]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the Shanghai index is supported around the 3800-point level, with technology growth sectors like semiconductors remaining active, indicating a bullish market sentiment [12]. - There is an expectation of continued volatility in global markets due to changes in interest rates, while domestic liquidity remains ample, suggesting potential opportunities in technology sectors [12].