1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the CESCO copper conference shows that institutions and the industry generally support buying on dips. The copper price is expected to move up, ranging between $10,500 and $11,300, driven by strong domestic demand and overseas demand for power grids and computing. However, the potential outflow of North American copper inventories due to the disappearance of US tariffs is a risk factor [1]. - For aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded, with significant inventory reduction. It may fluctuate in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1]. - For zinc, the price has fluctuated this week. The supply side faces challenges with declining TC and potential production cuts in December. The demand side is weak both at home and abroad. The export window is open, and the price may not fall deeply. It's advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, look for reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage for the 01 - 03 spread [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising. With ongoing policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities can be monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, the supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Given the potential policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities are worth attention [3]. - For lead, the price has declined this week, with improved sales. The supply is abundant, and demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,200. It's advisable to observe the increase in warehouse receipts and the price support of waste batteries [5]. - For tin, the price has increased this week. The supply side has limited recovery potential with many disturbances, and demand is mainly rigid. In the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, consider buying near the cost line [8]. - For industrial silicon, the production in Q4 is expected to be balanced with a slight surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price will likely oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market has been volatile due to multiple factors. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but the upward price movement depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the spot premium of Shanghai copper rose from 115 to 220, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 869, and the LME inventory increased by 675 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to rise, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased domestic power grid demand in 2026, global computing center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction demand. The bearish factor is the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased from 21,450 to 22,010, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum futures price has rebounded, and inventories are decreasing. The market may fluctuate in the short - term, with supply and demand expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased from 22,370 to 22,990, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,875 tons [1][2][12]. - **Market Outlook**: The zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as declining TC and potential production cuts in December. The demand is weak both at home and abroad. The export window is open, and the price may not fall deeply [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased from 119,500 to 120,300, and the LME inventory increased by 126 tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising. With ongoing policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities can be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Given the potential policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities are worth attention [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the lead price decreased, the LME inventory decreased by 5,100 tons [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price has declined this week, with improved sales. The supply is abundant, and demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,200 [5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the tin price increased, and the LME inventory decreased by 20 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has limited recovery potential with many disturbances, and demand is mainly rigid. In the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, consider buying near the cost line [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis improved, the 553 East China and Tianjin basis decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 336 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The production in Q4 is expected to be balanced with a slight surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price will likely oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, the basis weakened, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 770 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has been volatile due to multiple factors. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but the upward price movement depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying investment opportunities in commodities during extreme market emotions and highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of market dynamics and pricing mechanisms [3]. Group 1: Commodity Selection Framework - The framework for selecting commodities based on the "anti-involution" theme includes four key indicators: industry loss cycles, capacity utilization rate declines, risk factors from past market conditions, and the concentration of leading players [4][5]. - Significant categories identified for investment include industries with notable losses such as PVC, stainless steel, and polysilicon, as well as sectors with concentrated market shares like PTA, asphalt, and soda ash [5]. Group 2: Pricing Logic of Anti-Involution Rebound - The pricing logic surrounding the rebound from anti-involution suggests that punitive pricing strategies may alleviate market pessimism regarding deflation [6]. - The trend of local state-owned assets frequently acquiring listed companies is noted, indicating a potential increase in state-owned components within manufacturing sectors [6]. Group 3: Plant Oil Pricing Dynamics - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. biofuel policy on plant oil pricing, highlighting the government's support for the sector and its implications for agricultural resilience [7]. - Key factors influencing plant oil pricing include the trajectory of crude oil prices and the production rates from Malaysia and Indonesia during the seasonal increase [7][8]. Group 4: OPEC+ Production Risks - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production significantly, with plans to raise daily output by 548,000 barrels in August, exceeding market expectations [12][15]. - The organization is set to complete the unwinding of a voluntary production cut of 2.17 million barrels per day, which may lead to deeper oversupply pressures in the oil market [15]. Group 5: Market Resilience of Caustic Soda - The resilience of caustic soda prices is attributed to the decline in liquid chlorine prices, which has raised production costs for caustic soda [17]. - A potential increase in demand for alumina could further support caustic soda prices, presenting a bullish outlook for this commodity [17]. Group 6: Long-term Commodity Price Trends - The article highlights the debate between being a path trader versus a terminal trader in commodity markets, emphasizing the need for a deep understanding of core pricing logic [18]. - Current economic conditions show a lack of significant technological advancements to drive growth, alongside constraints on fiscal policy, leading to a mid-term outlook of price fluctuations in commodities [20].