投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 节前观望情绪较浓，焦煤期货震 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 现货首轮提涨，焦炭小幅上行 | 核心逻辑：甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1280.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 5.79%。供需方面，上周全 国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 76.1 万吨，环比增 3.3 万吨，较去年同期产量偏低 3.3 万吨。 进口端 288 口岸上周蒙煤通关车数重回年内高位，日通关车数在 1300~1400 车左右。需求端， 样本焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 113.37 万吨，周环比基本持平。整体来看，焦煤现实基本 面支撑有限，但在反内卷题 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) are mainly oscillatory, with an intraday bias towards strength. The coking coal is expected to be oscillatory due to good spot market atmosphere, while the coke is expected to have range - bound oscillations due to the interweaving of multiple and short factors [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Supply - demand Situation**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5.79%. Last week, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 76.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 tons, but 3.3 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles at the 288 Port returned to the annual high last week, with the daily customs - clearance vehicles around 1,300 - 1,400. The total daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 113.37 tons, with basically no change week - on - week [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The real - world fundamentals of coking coal have limited support. However, under the repeated disturbance of the anti - involution theme, the downstream replenishment expectation before the National Day and the coal mine production - reduction expectation at the end of the month support the price to a certain extent, driving the main contract of coking coal to maintain high - level oscillations [5]. b) Coke (J) - **Price and Supply - demand Situation**: The latest quotation of the warehouse - receipt price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.00%. As of the week of September 19, the total daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 113.37 tons, with basically no change week - on - week; the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 241.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 tons [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamental contradictions of coke are not prominent for the time being, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The futures are in range - bound oscillations, and the future trend depends on whether there are new positive factors in the anti - involution policy [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦煤区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 现货支撑显现，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1210.0 元/吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 供应强预期降温，焦煤震荡回调 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 观望情绪增加，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，截至 9 月 19 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 76.1 万吨， 环比增 3.3 万吨，较去年同期产量偏低 3.3 万吨。进口端 288 口岸上周蒙煤通关车数重回年内 高位，日通关车数在 1300~1400 车左右。需求端，样本焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 113.37 万吨，周环比基本持平。整体来看，焦煤现实基本面支撑不足，但在反内卷题材反复扰动的背 景下，国庆前下 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强预期支持，焦煤延续震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭高位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，截至 9 月 19 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Glass Futures Rising Analysis and Market Outlook [2] - Report Date: September 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Glass Futures Analysis Core View - On September 5, 2025, glass futures rose significantly, with the closing price up 56 yuan from the previous day, a 4.94% increase to 1189 yuan. Multiple factors contributed to this increase, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. Supply - Side Factors - Although the overall glass production capacity and output were relatively stable, recent cold repairs of some production lines reduced the market supply expectation, providing a basis for price increases [3]. Demand - Side Factors - Demand from urban renewal, old - community renovation, interior decoration, the automotive industry, home appliances, glass exports, tourism and commercial construction, the photovoltaic industry, and e - commerce logistics packaging increased, offsetting the decline in demand from the new commercial housing completion stage [3]. Market Sentiment Factors - The anti - involution theme fermented again, increasing the trading volume of the glass futures market and attracting more funds, which also pushed up the price [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - The State Council issued a policy on sports consumption with a total scale of over 7 trillion yuan. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the short term [6]. Gold Futures - The US July PCE price data met expectations, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and there is a short - term upward trend [11]. Iron Ore Futures - Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range shock range. The iron - water output is high, but the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products remains. Be wary of negative feedback due to eroded steel mill profits [14][15]. Glass Futures - Technically, it rebounded significantly. The daily melting volume is stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream deep - processing orders have not fully recovered. Pay attention to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [18][19]. Palm Oil Futures - The oil market has risen a lot recently. With increased inventory pressure and lack of demand, the motivation to chase the rise has decreased, and the profit - taking pressure has increased. Treat it with a bearish bias [21]. Pulp Futures - The pulp price in Shandong remained stable, and port inventories began to decline slightly, boosting the futures price. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. Maintain a view of low - level shocks and recommend waiting and seeing [25].

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with over 4,700 stocks rising, indicating a positive short-term outlook despite potential volatility risks [1] - The overall equity risk premium is at a relatively high historical level but is gradually returning to the historical average, suggesting that stock market investments still offer certain value [1] - The electric equipment industry shows strong growth in the ROE consistent expectations, indicating potential for future investment opportunities related to anti-involution themes [1] Group 2 - The Huaxia New Energy ETF (159368) is the first ETF in the market tracking the New Energy Index of the ChiNext board, covering sectors such as batteries, photovoltaics, and semiconductors, which are characterized by high elasticity and strong growth [1] - The management fee for the Huaxia New Energy ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, totaling only 0.2%, making it the lowest fee among similar products, facilitating quick investment opportunities [1] - Investors are encouraged to continuously monitor the Huaxia New Energy ETF for potential investment opportunities in the future development of the new energy sector [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Zinc: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in the star - rating system in the given content Core Views - The copper market lacks a clear main line, and it has to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. - The short - term trend of aluminum is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and there is a certain toughness relative to the aluminum price in the medium - term. Alumina is under pressure to oscillate but has limited downside space [2]. - The zinc market has an external - strong and internal - weak fundamental situation. Wait for the opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The downside space of lead is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [6]. - Tin is expected to be in an oscillatory market. Close high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. - After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the value of the game decreases. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon PS2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper oscillated and closed up at the MA60 moving - average line. The copper market lacks a clear main line, and it has to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate strongly. The spot discount in East China widened by 10 yuan to 50 yuan. The inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat compared to Monday, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of Baotai increased by 100 yuan to 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. In the medium - term, it has a certain toughness relative to the aluminum price [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. It is under pressure to oscillate but has limited downside space [2] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The LME zinc inventory continues to decline to 89,000 tons, and the SMM zinc social inventory has risen to 113,200 tons. The fundamental situation is external - strong and internal - weak. Wait for the opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Environmental inspections have affected the production of recycled lead in Anhui. The supply of lead ingots has large regional differences. The social inventory of lead has decreased by 180 tons to 71,100 tons. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [5] Nickel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and the market trading is active. The upstream price support has significantly weakened. The inventory of nickel iron is basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. It is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated with a decrease in positions during the session. It is expected to be in an oscillatory market. Pay attention to the change of high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plan of large factories and the off - season consumption. Close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with increased volume, and the market trading contracted. The total market inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. After the rebound, the value of the game decreases. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, and the spot manufacturers' quotes remained stable. The expected output in August will increase by about 21,700 - 31,700 tons. The downstream demand for polysilicon is expected to increase by about 11,800 - 12,100 tons, while the demand for silicone is expected to increase slightly. The supply pressure still exists. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, and pay attention to the support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly lower, and the trading sentiment declined marginally. The average price of SMM re - feed materials remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market lacks a clear main line, and one should continue to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is mainly volatile, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy has certain tenacity relative to the aluminum price in the medium - term. Alumina is in an oversupply state and is under pressure to fluctuate [2]. - The zinc market has an outer - strong and inner - weak fundamental situation. Wait for short - allocation opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The Shanghai lead has limited downward space, and its rebound height depends on consumption. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions on dips [5]. - The Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and one should actively enter short positions [6]. - The Shanghai tin is expected to be in a volatile market. Close out high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. - After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the game value decreases, and one should look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. - The industrial silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon PS2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Detailed Summaries by Categories Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed up near the MA60 moving average. The copper market lacks a clear main line, and one should continue to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. The spot discount in East China widened by 10 yuan to 50 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory remained flat compared to Monday, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.9 tons. The peak inventory may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - Casting aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price increased by 100 yuan to 19,800 yuan. The waste aluminum supply is tight, and the aluminum alloy industry profit is poor. In the medium - term, it has certain tenacity relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity with AL [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. The anti - involution theme has led to sharp fluctuations in related varieties. The price of bauxite is firm during the overseas rainy season. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downward space is relatively limited [2]. Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are positive. LME zinc inventory continues to decline to 89,000 tons, and SMM zinc social inventory has risen to 113,200 tons. The zinc spot import loss has widened to more than 1,600 yuan/ton. The outer market pulls the inner market up, and bulls return periodically. Wait for short - allocation opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Environmental inspections have affected the start - up of secondary lead production in Anhui. The supply of lead ingots has large regional differences. The SMM refined lead price remained flat. The average price of 1 lead has a real - time discount of 80 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The lead social inventory decreased by 0.18 tons to 71,100 tons. New orders of battery enterprises in August have improved. There are still regular maintenance plans for large primary lead smelters from late August to early September. Shanghai lead has limited downward space, and its rebound height depends on consumption. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions on dips [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The anti - involution theme in the domestic market is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. Nickel iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of inventory reduction. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and one should actively enter short positions [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a decrease in positions during the session, and it is expected to be in a volatile market. Overseas tin prices are supported by low visible inventory and the decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, one should pay attention to the changes in high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plans of large factories and weak consumption. Close out high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with increased trading volume, and market trading contracted. After the repeated price fluctuations, the futures and spot markets were unlocked, and a large amount of circulating goods began to enter the market. The downstream inquiry behavior was active, and the spot market trading improved. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious. The downstream increased the replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which clearly follows the decline of lithium carbonate prices. The smelting output decreased by 8% week - on - week. After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the game value decreases, and one should look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up, and the spot manufacturers' quotations remained stable. On the supply side, according to SMM, the expected output of industrial silicon in August will increase by about 21,700 - 31,700 tons month - on - month. Sichuan and Yunnan continue to increase the start - up rate, and large factories in Xinjiang also have复产 plans. The downstream polysilicon is expected to have an incremental demand of about 11,800 - 12,100 tons, while the large organic silicon accident factory is still in the process of resuming production, and the expected demand increase is not large. Therefore, the industrial silicon supply is under pressure. Currently, the futures price has corrected significantly, and affected by the expected supply policy of Xinjiang, it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly down, and the trading sentiment declined marginally. The average price of SMM re - feed material remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. The price and inventory transmission in the component link still have blockages, and the spot price increase of polysilicon is expected to be slow. Under the pattern of futures premium, the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 70 lots, but the total scale is still at a low level relative to the positions. The details of capacity storage have not been updated, and affected by policy regulation, the PS2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10].

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a surge in investment related to anti-involution themes since July 15, 2025, with the chemical ETF (159870) doubling its scale to reach 4.2 billion CNY in just three weeks [1] - The chemical sector has experienced a three-year downtrend, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) in deflation for 33 consecutive months, indicating a potential end to this historical deflation cycle [4] - The fixed asset investment in the industry turned negative for the first time in May 2025, signaling the end of the capacity expansion cycle, which historically leads to price increases within 6-12 months [4] Group 2 - The chemical ETF has seen a significant increase in shares, with over 4 billion shares added in the past three weeks, making it the most active cycle-related ETF in terms of capital inflow [5] - The chemical ETF closely tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of major companies in related sectors [5] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index accounted for 43.54% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yilong Co [5]