Core Viewpoint - Do Kwon, the notorious former cryptocurrency mogul, pleaded guilty to two fraud charges in a New York federal court, marking a significant development in the aftermath of the collapse of the algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) and its sister coin Luna, which resulted in a loss of over $40 billion in market value within a week in May 2022 [1][2][5]. Group 1: Collapse of TerraUSD and Luna - The algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD was designed without backing from fiat currency or physical assets, relying instead on a dual-token system with Luna to maintain its price peg [2]. - The mechanism depended heavily on participant confidence, and once a significant funding gap occurred, the stablecoin's de-pegging became inevitable, leading to a "death spiral" as Luna's price plummeted [2][3]. - Within just five days, Luna's price fell from $80 to nearly worthless, and TerraUSD never regained its peg [3] Group 2: Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market - The collapse of TerraUSD and Luna ended the preceding cryptocurrency bull market, causing numerous crypto companies to go bankrupt, with Bitcoin's price dropping from $69,000 to $16,000 over the course of nearly a year [5]. Group 3: Legal Proceedings and Guilty Plea - After going into hiding following the collapse, Do Kwon was arrested in Montenegro in March 2023 while attempting to flee with a fake passport [7]. - His guilty plea signifies a decision to cease resistance against prosecutors, where he admitted to intentionally deceiving cryptocurrency buyers and acknowledged the fraudulent nature of his statements regarding TerraUSD's ability to self-recover [8]. - As part of a plea agreement, Do Kwon pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy and one count of wire fraud, with prosecutors seeking a sentence of no more than 12 years, although he could face up to 25 years if the maximum sentence is imposed [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The stability of stablecoins remains uncertain, necessitating careful observation and regulation to ensure their role in the digital economy [1] Group 1: Historical Context - In 2017, USDT faced a trust crisis due to doubts about its reserve authenticity, highlighting the vulnerabilities of stablecoins in their early development [1] - USDC, known for its transparency and compliance, encountered a crisis in March 2023 when part of its reserves was held in Silicon Valley Bank, leading to a temporary run on the coin following the bank's collapse [1] Group 2: Regulatory Considerations - The challenges faced by both fiat-backed and algorithmic stablecoins underscore the need for regulatory oversight, given their public good attributes [1] - The current enthusiasm for stablecoins should be approached with caution, balancing the benefits and risks while fostering a healthy ecosystem for digital economic development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Genius Act" marks the establishment of a clear legal framework for stablecoins in the U.S., ending their previous ambiguous legal status and reshaping the industry landscape [1][4][26] Group 1: Definition and Regulatory Framework - The "Genius Act" defines compliant stablecoins as "payment stablecoins," emphasizing their role as payment or settlement tools rather than investment products [4][5] - This definition excludes stablecoins from being classified as legal tender, bank deposits, financial securities, or commodities, thus simplifying the regulatory path for issuers [4][5] - The act signals that compliant stablecoins will be recognized as legitimate financial payment tools, moving away from being seen as risk assets [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Participants - The act creates a new power structure where traditional financial institutions, particularly banks, will dominate the issuance of stablecoins [9][10] - Only "insured depository institutions" and "regulated non-bank entities" can issue stablecoins, favoring established banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America [9][10] - Non-financial giants like Amazon and Meta face significant barriers to entering the stablecoin market, as the act restricts issuance to companies primarily engaged in financial services [12][24] Group 3: Compliance and Cost Implications - The act imposes strict compliance requirements, including a 1:1 reserve mechanism and monthly audits, significantly increasing operational costs for stablecoin issuers [17][18] - The previous practices of leveraging reserves for additional returns will be curtailed, as only high-liquid assets like cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities can be used [17][18] - Smaller firms may struggle to meet the new compliance standards, leading to a market dominated by larger institutions [13][18] Group 4: Opportunities for Web3 Infrastructure - The new regulatory environment presents significant opportunities for Web3 infrastructure providers, as banks seek to develop their own stablecoins [19][26] - Companies like Alchemy and Fireblocks are positioned to offer essential services to banks, potentially leading to a booming market for Web3 infrastructure, projected to reach $55 billion by 2033 [19][26] Group 5: Future of Existing Stablecoins - Tether's USDT faces compliance challenges under the new act, as it must secure regulatory approval to continue operating in the U.S. market [22][23] - The act mandates that stablecoin issuers must back their tokens with cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, which may be difficult for Tether to achieve given its current asset composition [23][24] - Algorithmic stablecoins are temporarily excluded from the regulatory framework, with further research required to assess their risks and potential uses [24][25]

本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! 证券研究报告 非银金融 2025年05月23日 非银行业深度报告: 稳定币赛道研究 董栋梁(证券分析师) S0350525030005 dongdl@ghzq.com.cn 本报告来源于"慧博投研"，请勿外传! 相关报告 | | | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 核心提要 太将告来源于"彗横投研" 清勿外传! 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 ◆ 核心要点：稳定币近年来在全世界发展较为迅速、不同稳定币之间也有不同的特色。世界各地也在展开一系列对稳定币的监 管 ◆ 稳定币近年来发展迅速：由于一般的数字货币波动大、且稳定币在跨境支付方面有更高的效率，同时特定地区也对稳定币产 生需求,因此稳定币近年来规模快速增长,且以美元为主。 ◆ 各种类型的稳定币满足不同客户的需求:稳定币主要有三种类型，包括基于法定货币或实物资产等资产抵押发行的数字货币, 基于数字资产或者抵押产生的稳定币和算法稳定币。基于法定货币或实物资产等资产抵押的稳定币是市场主流、安全性较高; 基于数字资产或者抵押产生的稳定币则能提供杠杆和一定的收益，算法稳定币的市场关注度正在逐步下降。 ◆ 稳 ...