中国银河证券指出，近日钢企陆续发布2025前三季度业绩报告，龙头钢企归母净利润高增，部分钢企利 润同比扭亏为盈，钢铁行业整体盈利能力修复。在供给侧反内卷持续推进的背景下，钢铁行业产能持续 向优质龙头集中。国泰海通表示，钢铁需求有望逐步触底；供给端即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业亏损 时间已经较长，供给的市场化出清已开始出现，该行预期钢铁行业基本面有望逐步修复。而若供给政策 落地，行业供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。 中信建投（601066）发布研报称，2025年钢材价格经历显著下跌，核心矛盾集中于供需错配、成本支撑 弱化及政策效应滞后等因素。当前市场处于"低库存、低价格、低需求、高供应弹性"的弱平衡状态，后 续走势取决于减产力度与政策落地速度的博弈。该行认为，近年来围绕粗钢总量控制的政策较多，但效 果不如2021年那般明显，行业盈利能力恶化，防止内卷改善价格依然是明年的重要任务。 钢铁股跌幅居前，截至发稿，鞍钢股份（000898）(00347)跌5.33%，报2.13港元；马鞍山钢铁股份 (00323)跌5.28%，报2.69港元；重庆钢铁（601005）股份(01053)跌4.23%，报1.36港 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is facing challenges with profitability due to ineffective policies on crude steel volume control, and preventing internal competition while improving prices remains a key task for the upcoming year [1][3]. Pricing - Steel prices have been on a downward trend, with future movements dependent on production cuts. The core issues include supply-demand mismatches, weakened cost support, and delayed policy effects. The market is currently in a weak balance state characterized by low inventory, low prices, low demand, and high supply elasticity. The future price trajectory will hinge on the effectiveness of production cut policies [2][3]. Supply - The government is continuing to implement crude steel production controls and promote "dual control of carbon emissions." Policies are focused on preventing new steel production capacity under various guises and promoting high-performance special steel and recycling. The effectiveness of these policies has diminished compared to 2021, leading to increased internal competition and deteriorating profitability [3][4]. Demand - The proportion of steel used in manufacturing has been increasing, surpassing 50%. Traditional manufacturing is stable, while high-end manufacturing and emerging industries are growing rapidly. However, real estate sales have not shown significant recovery, and it is expected that steel consumption in the real estate sector will decline. Overall, domestic steel consumption is projected to decrease by 1.9% in 2026 [4][5]. Costs - The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, which may improve profitability per ton of steel. The global iron ore market is anticipated to be oversupplied in 2026, with a forecasted equilibrium price of $90 per ton (CFR China), down approximately 12% from 2025, leading to an estimated profit improvement of about 130 yuan per ton of steel [5][6]. Profitability - Profit recovery in the steel industry is contingent upon strict enforcement of production cuts. If production is reduced by 4 million tons, the annual crude steel output would be 945 million tons, potentially restoring gross profit margins to around 300 yuan. Conversely, if production is cut by only 2.5 million tons, the output would be 960 million tons, with profit margins likely remaining at this year's average of 0-100 yuan [6][7].