Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that while pig prices are rebounding during the peak season, the extent of the increase has narrowed due to ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, which is slowing down [1] - The pig farming industry is expected to continue capacity reduction under the pressures of rising epidemic risks and policy constraints [1] - The white chicken industry has a high capacity level, suggesting that chicken prices may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, while the yellow chicken industry is at historically low capacity levels, potentially leading to price increases [1] Group 2 - In the animal health sector, core antibiotic prices have recently experienced high-level fluctuations [1] - In the planting industry chain, grain prices of various types have recently increased, and are expected to trend upward in the medium term due to domestic and international factors, which will also support seed price increases [1] - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary medicine to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1]

粮价稳步上行，种植周期崛起 — — 种 植 业 动态跟踪报告 分析师：李晓渊 执业证书编号：S0930523100002 联系人：于明正 2025年5月12日 证券研究报告 核心结论 粮价开启稳步上行，长期增量扩面趋势有望延续。 全球市场：24/25种植季，由于海外天气影响，全球玉米减产，叠加大豆价格低迷影响，新季全球玉米种植面积和产量预测向上，全球供需 预计仍将偏紧平衡。 国内市场：（1）中短期玉米库存压力缓解驱动价格回暖，种植利润修复；（2）25年Q1粮食进口大幅缩量，进口调控保障国内粮价合理、 稳定，利好长期种植意愿和种植面积扩张；（3）替代品方面，小麦供需同样趋紧，饲用替代空间有限，玉米价格仍具备一定上行空间； （4）下游养殖利润回暖，短期需求周期性改善。长期视角下，国内饲用玉米需求量持续增长，需要种植面积和单产水平提升保障主粮安全。 投资建议：把握三条主线，（1）种植：玉米、小麦等主粮价格稳步上行直接利好大种植标的，主营业务利润有望逐步改善，建议关注北大 荒、苏垦农发等；（2）种子：受益于种植景气回升，种业需求基本面逐步改善，关注具备品种优势和强推广能力的企业，建议关注隆平高 科、荃银高科、秋乐种业 ...