上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 09 月 30 日 利尔化学 (002258) ——草铵膦和氯代吡啶类除草剂领先企业，工艺技术构筑 核心护城河 报告原因：首次覆盖 增持（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 12.77 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 13.33/7.72 | | 市净率 | 1.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.13 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 10,205 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,862.53/13,479.43 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.80 | | 资产负债率% | 43.87 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 800/799 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-30 10-31 11-30 12-31 01-31 02-28 03-31 04-30 05-31 06- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][4] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 was impacted by low grain prices, with revenue of 369 million RMB (down 9.41% YoY) and a net profit of 35.11 million RMB (down 33.42% YoY) [1][2] - The decline in performance is attributed to poor performance in the corn seed sector, with supply-demand imbalance leading to lower seed prices and intense competition [1][2] - The company is focusing on high-quality development through the establishment of a research and development center and an integrated breeding system [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 369 million RMB, with a net profit of 35.11 million RMB and a non-recurring net profit of -4.32 million RMB [1] - Q2 2025 revenue was 207 million RMB (up 17.97% YoY, up 27.08% QoQ), but net profit was 10.51 million RMB (down 53.48% YoY, down 57.25% QoQ) [1] - The corn seed segment saw revenue decline of 12.04% YoY, while wheat seed revenue increased by 118.01% YoY [2] Research and Development - The company has invested over 90% of the planned investment in its R&D center, with a total investment of 120 million RMB in the Qingdao Biotechnology R&D Center [3] - R&D expenses in H1 2025 were 42.27 million RMB, an increase of 12.23% YoY, with an R&D expense ratio of 11.44% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 160 million RMB, 230 million RMB, and 280 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8] - The target price is set at 12.06 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 67x for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The USDA supply and demand report indicates an increase in U.S. corn acreage and yield, with global corn production (excluding China) forecasted to rise by 24.92 million tons to 990 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a year-on-year increase of 51.69 million tons [11] - U.S. soybean planting area has been unexpectedly reduced, with production estimates down by 1.29 million tons to 40.5 million tons, while the yield is projected to reach a record 53.6 bushels per acre [19] - Favorable weather conditions have improved EU wheat yields, but global wheat stock-to-use ratio has been revised down [29][30] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report raised the global corn production estimate (excluding China) for 2025/26 by 24.92 million tons to 990 million tons, with U.S. corn acreage up by 1.15 million acres and yield forecasted at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, potentially reaching a total of 42.5 million tons [11] - The ending stocks for global corn (excluding China) are projected to be 10.4 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 10.8%, up 1 percentage point [11] Soybeans - The global soybean production estimate (excluding China) for 2025/26 has been reduced by 1.29 million tons to 40.5 million tons, with U.S. production down by 1.16 million tons to 11.7 million tons, reflecting a 2% year-on-year decrease [19] - The ending stocks for global soybeans (excluding China) are estimated at 8.152 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 27.9%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [19] Wheat - The global wheat production estimate (excluding China) for 2025/26 has been increased by 350,000 tons to 667 million tons, with U.S. production slightly down by 40,000 tons to 52.45 million tons [29] - The ending stocks for global wheat (excluding China) are projected to be 13.53 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 20.5%, down 0.3 percentage points [30] Investment Recommendations - In the context of extreme weather and geopolitical tensions affecting grain prices, the report emphasizes the importance of seed source control for national food security, recommending focus on leading seed companies with transgenic advantages such as Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyinhai [38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that under the context of food security, genetically modified (GM) technology plays a revolutionary role in increasing yield [1] - The commercialization process of GM technology is expected to accelerate, fundamentally enhancing the self-sufficiency rate of key varieties through yield improvement [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of strengthening the protection of new plant varieties, which will empower innovation and development in the seed industry, benefiting the GM seed sector [1] Group 2 - The recommendation is to select targets with a clear first-mover advantage in the GM seed industry [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the pig farming industry, focusing on improving efficiency and quality. It highlights the importance of capacity control and the encouragement of large enterprises to collaborate with smaller farms to share industry benefits [2][12] - In the planting industry, the report discusses the promotion of new varieties and technologies to enhance crop yields, particularly in the context of food security. It predicts a continued acceleration in the commercialization of genetically modified crops [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is working on a directory for superior crop varieties by 2025, focusing on enhancing yields and meeting current production needs [1][11] - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the planting sector, including Beidahuang and Su-Kun Agricultural Development, and recommends companies with strong advantages in seed development such as Longping High-Tech and Denge Seed Industry [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs is 14.29 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.20%. The overall supply exceeds demand, leading to a forecast of continued price declines [2][12] - The report notes a decrease in the number of breeding sows, with a total of 40.43 million as of June 2025, down by 370,000 from the previous year [2][12] - Recommended companies in the pig farming sector include Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [2][12] Feed and Animal Health - The average price of pig feed is 2.72 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week. The report also provides insights into the prices of various feed types for poultry and livestock [50][52]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][69] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in the pig farming sector, with the national average pig price reaching 15.37 yuan/kg as of July 4, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.71 yuan/kg [2][10] - The report indicates a decrease in slaughter volume due to high temperatures affecting pork consumption, with daily average slaughter volume dropping to 138,000 heads, a week-on-week decrease of 3.83% [2][16] - The report notes a rebound in average pig weight for slaughter, with the average weight recorded at 128.64 kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.50 kg [2][22] - The poultry sector is experiencing a decline in chicken chick prices, with the price of white feather chicken chicks dropping to 1.36 yuan/chick, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34 yuan/chick [3][35] - The report discusses the impact of ongoing avian influenza outbreaks on the poultry industry, particularly affecting the supply of quality chicks [3][39] - The seed industry is seeing increased regulatory scrutiny, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [3][48] - The report mentions fluctuations in soybean meal prices, with the spot price at 2,928 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 22 yuan/ton [3][49] - The agricultural sector overall has shown a 2.55% increase in the past week, outperforming major indices [3][54] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply reduction has led to significant price increases, with the national average pig price at 15.37 yuan/kg [2][10] - Slaughter volume has decreased due to high temperatures, with daily average slaughter volume at 138,000 heads [2][16] - Average pig weight for slaughter has rebounded to 128.64 kg [2][22] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Wens Foodstuff Group for potential investment opportunities [2][33] Poultry Sector - White feather chicken chick prices have reached a new low, with prices at 1.36 yuan/chick [3][35] - The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks are affecting the supply chain, particularly in the U.S. and New Zealand [3][39] - The report recommends focusing on companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Shennong Group for investment [3][39] Seed Industry & Agricultural Products - Regulatory measures are being strengthened in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market conditions [3][48] - Soybean meal prices are fluctuating, with current prices at 2,928 yuan/ton [3][49] - The report suggests monitoring soybean meal ETFs for investment opportunities [3][49]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company maintains its competitive advantage in the Southwest region while expanding its market presence in the Huanghuaihai region, aiming to create a second growth curve through the promotion of key products [3][5]. - The company is recognized as a key player in the agricultural industry, focusing on high-yield, stable, and resilient hybrid corn seed research, production, and sales [5][13]. - The report highlights the potential for growth driven by rising grain prices and the acceleration of genetically modified (GM) crop adoption [5][42]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, the company's closing price is 23.57 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 2.34 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 1.37 billion yuan [1]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 288 million yuan (2023), 337 million yuan (2024), 431 million yuan (2025), 553 million yuan (2026), and 687 million yuan (2027), with corresponding growth rates of 45.85%, 16.80%, 28.16%, 28.19%, and 24.27% [4]. - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 53 million yuan (2023), 83 million yuan (2024), 93 million yuan (2025), 114 million yuan (2026), and 139 million yuan (2027), with growth rates of 28.73%, 55.21%, 12.39%, 22.79%, and 22.03% respectively [4][6]. Business Overview - The company has a strong foothold in the Southwest region, with a market share increase from 4.84% in 2021 to 5.97% in 2022, indicating a solid competitive position [5][58]. - The company is actively expanding into the Huanghuaihai and Northeast regions, with significant growth in sales of its flagship product, Kangnongyu 8009, contributing to revenue increases [5][35]. Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes the importance of GM crop commercialization, with the company having successfully developed and approved its GM corn variety, Kangnong 20065KK, which is set for demonstration planting in 2025 [5][53]. - The company is expected to benefit from rising grain prices, with corn prices increasing by 13.1% as of June 11, 2025, which may stimulate demand for its products [5][45]. Management and Strategy - The management team possesses extensive experience in the seed industry, with a focus on innovation and market expansion strategies [5][33]. - The company plans to enhance its production capacity through investment projects aimed at improving seed processing and storage capabilities [5][40].

Industry Overview - The global seed industry has a high concentration, with a CR5 of 52% in 2021, while China's seed industry CR5 is only 17%, indicating significant room for improvement[4] - Major grain prices in China have shown a slight increase, with corn prices up by 11.9%, while soybean prices decreased by 0.7%, and wheat prices increased by 2.9% as of May 23, 2025[4] Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) - Three batches of genetically modified corn varieties have been approved for commercialization, totaling 161 varieties, with significant advantages for leading companies[4][16] - The domestic market for genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, with companies like Kangnong Seed focusing on high-yield and resilient hybrid corn varieties[19] Company Performance - Kangnong Seed's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 337 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.80%, with a net profit of approximately 82.60 million yuan and gross/net profit margins of 35.79% and 24.72%, respectively[30] - The company's three-year CAGR for revenue and net profit from 2021 to 2024 is 33.45% and 24.53%, respectively, indicating strong growth potential[30] Market Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange consumer service sector decreased from 57.9X to 53.2X, reflecting a broader market trend[34] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange consumer service sector fell from 119.36 billion yuan to 116.79 billion yuan during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025[38] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, market competition, and statistical data inaccuracies, which could impact the overall market performance[52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture sector [3] Core Insights - The agriculture sector is experiencing a blend of traditional and innovative trends, with a focus on both stable consumption and growth opportunities [1] - The report highlights the resilience of meat protein prices and the potential for long-term investment opportunities amidst market pessimism [1][2] Summary by Sections Traditional Consumption - Meat protein prices remain strong, with pork prices averaging 15.1 CNY/kg from January to April 2025, up 1.4% and 2.7% compared to 2024 and 2023 respectively [9] - The average profit per pig has reached 87 CNY, marking the first profitable quarter since 2021 [9] - Poultry supply is increasing, with a recovery in breeding stock leading to improved profitability in the poultry sector [24][29] New Consumption - The new consumption trends are focusing on health and wellness, with significant growth in the pet-related industry, including pet food and healthcare [2] - The rise of sugar alternatives and health food concepts such as konjac and blueberries are highlighted as key growth areas [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within various segments, including: - Swine farming: Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group - Poultry: Sanquan Foods, Hewei Group, and Yisheng Livestock - Aquaculture feed: Haida Group - Pet industry: Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. - New consumption: Baolingbao Biology, Huakang Co., and Zhongxing Junye [2] Crop Production - The report notes that corn and soybean production is expected to be stable, with a slight increase in corn production to 290 million tons in 2025, up 0.4% from the previous year [64][69] - The impact of weather on crop yields is emphasized, particularly regarding the ENSO phenomenon and its potential effects on production [78] Market Trends - The report indicates a potential increase in beef prices as domestic and international supply decreases, with beef wholesale prices rising to 63.12 CNY/kg in May 2025 [39] - The overall outlook for the agriculture sector remains positive, with expectations of continued demand and price stability in key protein markets [63]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The USDA supply and demand report indicates that new crop inventories for soybeans and corn are lower than expected, which is favorable for prices [4][6] - Global corn production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 1.221 billion tons, with significant increases in production from the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [1][12] - The soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 410 million tons, with Brazil expected to reach a record 175 million tons [2][3][18] - The global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 is 667 million tons, reflecting a 1.0% year-on-year increase, with the EU showing significant growth [4][28] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report estimates a global corn production of 1.221 billion tons for 2024/25, with U.S. production increasing by 24.22 million tons due to expanded planting [1][12] - The projected global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are 95.68 million tons, a 7.4% increase year-on-year, with a low stocks-to-use ratio of 10% [1][12] Soybeans - The global soybean production for 2024/25 is estimated at 421 million tons, with U.S. ending stocks significantly reduced to 295 million bushels [2][3][18] - The forecast for global soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 is 80.47 million tons, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 27.6% [3][19] Wheat - The global wheat production for 2025/26 is projected at 667 million tons, with the EU's production expected to increase by 11.4% to 136 million tons [4][28] - The global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 are estimated at 14.2 million tons, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 21.6% [5][28] Investment Recommendations - In light of increasing global weather extremes and geopolitical tensions affecting grain prices, the report emphasizes the importance of seed source control for national food security [6][36] - Recommended companies include leading seed firms with transgenic advantages such as Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyuan High-Tech, along with suggestions to monitor Kangnong Seed Industry, Denghai Seed Industry, and Fengle Seed Industry [6][36]