Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the pork market, with prices experiencing a downward trend, currently at 11.90 CNY/kg, a decrease of 1.18% week-on-week. The market is characterized by a supply-demand tug-of-war, with large-scale pig farms adopting strategies to control supply and increase prices [2][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of the seed industry revitalization action plan, aiming for high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on technological self-reliance and independent control of seed sources [1][11] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified crops will accelerate, significantly impacting yield improvements and self-sufficiency rates for key varieties [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to promote the revitalization of the seed industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and technological independence. Key actions include improving seed quality, protecting intellectual property, and enhancing biosecurity measures [1][11] - Recommended companies in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Swine Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.90 CNY/kg, with a notable decrease in losses for self-bred pigs to 114.81 CNY per head and 205.64 CNY for purchased piglets. The industry is still in a loss-making state but is seeing a reduction in losses compared to previous weeks [2][12] - The report anticipates a long-term upward adjustment in domestic pig prices, driven by policy guidance aimed at improving quality and efficiency in the industry [2][12] - Recommended stocks in the swine sector include companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and DeKang Agriculture [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2256.27 CNY/ton, up 0.92% week-on-week [25] - Wheat: The average price is 2485.11 CNY/ton, down 0.15% week-on-week [28] - Soybeans: The average price is 4011.58 CNY/ton, up 0.10% week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 14640.00 CNY/ton, up 0.10% week-on-week [45]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the swine industry is entering a de-stocking cycle, while the beef cattle sector continues to experience an upward trend in demand and pricing [2][3] Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine sector is witnessing accelerated de-stocking driven by policy and market dynamics, presenting a good opportunity for investment [3][43] - As of Q3 2025, China's pig output reached 530 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with pork production at 43.68 million tons, up 3.0% year-on-year [10][13] - The average price of pigs in October 2025 dropped to 10.84 yuan/kg, a significant decline of 40.28% year-on-year, marking a new low for the year [10][13] Group 2: Beef Cattle Industry - The beef cattle supply is contracting, with the cycle of demand expected to continue its upward trajectory until 2027 [4][49] - In Q3 2025, the number of beef cattle in China was 99.32 million heads, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, while beef production reached 5.5 million tons, up 3.3% year-on-year [49][51] - The average price of beef in September 2025 was 70.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.36% [59] Group 3: Poultry Industry - The white chicken sector is experiencing a gradual increase in demand, with the output of white feathered chickens expected to rise to 90.3 million heads in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [94][98] - The rolling update of grandparent stock for white feathered chickens is projected to decline, which will support an increase in chicken prices in 2026 [100] Group 4: Seed Industry - Grain prices are expected to stabilize and rise due to various factors, including U.S.-China tariff disturbances and climate impacts [6] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, supported by an increase in the number of approved varieties [6] Group 5: Pet Industry - The pet food export volume in China increased by 7.55% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating strong performance from leading companies [7] - Domestic pet consumption is expected to grow due to increasing companionship demand and emotional value associated with pet ownership [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in the production of glyphosate and chlorinated pyridine herbicides, with a robust technological moat built through continuous process improvements and cost advantages [6][7]. - The agricultural chemical industry is expected to recover as inventory levels normalize, leading to improved pricing and profitability for the company [6][7]. - The demand for glyphosate is projected to grow due to factors such as the penetration of genetically modified crops and the ban on paraquat, which creates a market vacuum for glyphosate [6]. - The company is focusing on L-glyphosate as a key development area, which is expected to become a new leader in the herbicide market due to its superior efficacy and cost advantages [6]. - The company is also consolidating its leading position in chlorinated pyridine herbicides while actively developing new products to open up future growth opportunities [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest domestic producer of chlorinated pyridine herbicides and has a leading position in glyphosate production, with a comprehensive production base across seven locations [6][17]. - It has established long-term partnerships with major global agricultural companies, ensuring stable supply chains and market presence [17][20]. Industry Outlook - The agricultural chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase after a period of destocking, with signs of demand returning and prices stabilizing [6][28]. - The global market for crop protection products has shown steady growth, with an expected increase in demand driven by population growth and agricultural needs [46]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company reported a significant recovery in financial performance, with a projected revenue of 73.11 billion yuan in 2024, despite a decline in 2023 [5][28]. - The forecast for net profit shows a substantial increase from 2.15 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.95 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [5][7]. Product Development and Market Position - The company is enhancing its product offerings, particularly in L-glyphosate, which is expected to capture a larger market share due to its competitive pricing and effectiveness [6][7]. - Continuous improvements in production processes and the introduction of new products are expected to strengthen the company's market position and profitability [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][4] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 was impacted by low grain prices, with revenue of 369 million RMB (down 9.41% YoY) and a net profit of 35.11 million RMB (down 33.42% YoY) [1][2] - The decline in performance is attributed to poor performance in the corn seed sector, with supply-demand imbalance leading to lower seed prices and intense competition [1][2] - The company is focusing on high-quality development through the establishment of a research and development center and an integrated breeding system [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 369 million RMB, with a net profit of 35.11 million RMB and a non-recurring net profit of -4.32 million RMB [1] - Q2 2025 revenue was 207 million RMB (up 17.97% YoY, up 27.08% QoQ), but net profit was 10.51 million RMB (down 53.48% YoY, down 57.25% QoQ) [1] - The corn seed segment saw revenue decline of 12.04% YoY, while wheat seed revenue increased by 118.01% YoY [2] Research and Development - The company has invested over 90% of the planned investment in its R&D center, with a total investment of 120 million RMB in the Qingdao Biotechnology R&D Center [3] - R&D expenses in H1 2025 were 42.27 million RMB, an increase of 12.23% YoY, with an R&D expense ratio of 11.44% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 160 million RMB, 230 million RMB, and 280 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8] - The target price is set at 12.06 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 67x for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The USDA supply and demand report indicates an increase in U.S. corn acreage and yield, with global corn production (excluding China) forecasted to rise by 24.92 million tons to 990 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a year-on-year increase of 51.69 million tons [11] - U.S. soybean planting area has been unexpectedly reduced, with production estimates down by 1.29 million tons to 40.5 million tons, while the yield is projected to reach a record 53.6 bushels per acre [19] - Favorable weather conditions have improved EU wheat yields, but global wheat stock-to-use ratio has been revised down [29][30] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report raised the global corn production estimate (excluding China) for 2025/26 by 24.92 million tons to 990 million tons, with U.S. corn acreage up by 1.15 million acres and yield forecasted at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, potentially reaching a total of 42.5 million tons [11] - The ending stocks for global corn (excluding China) are projected to be 10.4 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 10.8%, up 1 percentage point [11] Soybeans - The global soybean production estimate (excluding China) for 2025/26 has been reduced by 1.29 million tons to 40.5 million tons, with U.S. production down by 1.16 million tons to 11.7 million tons, reflecting a 2% year-on-year decrease [19] - The ending stocks for global soybeans (excluding China) are estimated at 8.152 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 27.9%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [19] Wheat - The global wheat production estimate (excluding China) for 2025/26 has been increased by 350,000 tons to 667 million tons, with U.S. production slightly down by 40,000 tons to 52.45 million tons [29] - The ending stocks for global wheat (excluding China) are projected to be 13.53 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio of 20.5%, down 0.3 percentage points [30] Investment Recommendations - In the context of extreme weather and geopolitical tensions affecting grain prices, the report emphasizes the importance of seed source control for national food security, recommending focus on leading seed companies with transgenic advantages such as Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyinhai [38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that under the context of food security, genetically modified (GM) technology plays a revolutionary role in increasing yield [1] - The commercialization process of GM technology is expected to accelerate, fundamentally enhancing the self-sufficiency rate of key varieties through yield improvement [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of strengthening the protection of new plant varieties, which will empower innovation and development in the seed industry, benefiting the GM seed sector [1] Group 2 - The recommendation is to select targets with a clear first-mover advantage in the GM seed industry [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for high-quality development in the pig farming industry, focusing on improving efficiency and quality. It highlights the importance of capacity control and the encouragement of large enterprises to collaborate with smaller farms to share industry benefits [2][12] - In the planting industry, the report discusses the promotion of new varieties and technologies to enhance crop yields, particularly in the context of food security. It predicts a continued acceleration in the commercialization of genetically modified crops [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is working on a directory for superior crop varieties by 2025, focusing on enhancing yields and meeting current production needs [1][11] - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the planting sector, including Beidahuang and Su-Kun Agricultural Development, and recommends companies with strong advantages in seed development such as Longping High-Tech and Denge Seed Industry [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs is 14.29 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.20%. The overall supply exceeds demand, leading to a forecast of continued price declines [2][12] - The report notes a decrease in the number of breeding sows, with a total of 40.43 million as of June 2025, down by 370,000 from the previous year [2][12] - Recommended companies in the pig farming sector include Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [2][12] Feed and Animal Health - The average price of pig feed is 2.72 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week. The report also provides insights into the prices of various feed types for poultry and livestock [50][52]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][69] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in the pig farming sector, with the national average pig price reaching 15.37 yuan/kg as of July 4, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.71 yuan/kg [2][10] - The report indicates a decrease in slaughter volume due to high temperatures affecting pork consumption, with daily average slaughter volume dropping to 138,000 heads, a week-on-week decrease of 3.83% [2][16] - The report notes a rebound in average pig weight for slaughter, with the average weight recorded at 128.64 kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.50 kg [2][22] - The poultry sector is experiencing a decline in chicken chick prices, with the price of white feather chicken chicks dropping to 1.36 yuan/chick, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34 yuan/chick [3][35] - The report discusses the impact of ongoing avian influenza outbreaks on the poultry industry, particularly affecting the supply of quality chicks [3][39] - The seed industry is seeing increased regulatory scrutiny, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [3][48] - The report mentions fluctuations in soybean meal prices, with the spot price at 2,928 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 22 yuan/ton [3][49] - The agricultural sector overall has shown a 2.55% increase in the past week, outperforming major indices [3][54] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Supply reduction has led to significant price increases, with the national average pig price at 15.37 yuan/kg [2][10] - Slaughter volume has decreased due to high temperatures, with daily average slaughter volume at 138,000 heads [2][16] - Average pig weight for slaughter has rebounded to 128.64 kg [2][22] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Wens Foodstuff Group for potential investment opportunities [2][33] Poultry Sector - White feather chicken chick prices have reached a new low, with prices at 1.36 yuan/chick [3][35] - The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks are affecting the supply chain, particularly in the U.S. and New Zealand [3][39] - The report recommends focusing on companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Shennong Group for investment [3][39] Seed Industry & Agricultural Products - Regulatory measures are being strengthened in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market conditions [3][48] - Soybean meal prices are fluctuating, with current prices at 2,928 yuan/ton [3][49] - The report suggests monitoring soybean meal ETFs for investment opportunities [3][49]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company maintains its competitive advantage in the Southwest region while expanding its market presence in the Huanghuaihai region, aiming to create a second growth curve through the promotion of key products [3][5]. - The company is recognized as a key player in the agricultural industry, focusing on high-yield, stable, and resilient hybrid corn seed research, production, and sales [5][13]. - The report highlights the potential for growth driven by rising grain prices and the acceleration of genetically modified (GM) crop adoption [5][42]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, the company's closing price is 23.57 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 2.34 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 1.37 billion yuan [1]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 288 million yuan (2023), 337 million yuan (2024), 431 million yuan (2025), 553 million yuan (2026), and 687 million yuan (2027), with corresponding growth rates of 45.85%, 16.80%, 28.16%, 28.19%, and 24.27% [4]. - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 53 million yuan (2023), 83 million yuan (2024), 93 million yuan (2025), 114 million yuan (2026), and 139 million yuan (2027), with growth rates of 28.73%, 55.21%, 12.39%, 22.79%, and 22.03% respectively [4][6]. Business Overview - The company has a strong foothold in the Southwest region, with a market share increase from 4.84% in 2021 to 5.97% in 2022, indicating a solid competitive position [5][58]. - The company is actively expanding into the Huanghuaihai and Northeast regions, with significant growth in sales of its flagship product, Kangnongyu 8009, contributing to revenue increases [5][35]. Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes the importance of GM crop commercialization, with the company having successfully developed and approved its GM corn variety, Kangnong 20065KK, which is set for demonstration planting in 2025 [5][53]. - The company is expected to benefit from rising grain prices, with corn prices increasing by 13.1% as of June 11, 2025, which may stimulate demand for its products [5][45]. Management and Strategy - The management team possesses extensive experience in the seed industry, with a focus on innovation and market expansion strategies [5][33]. - The company plans to enhance its production capacity through investment projects aimed at improving seed processing and storage capabilities [5][40].

Industry Overview - The global seed industry has a high concentration, with a CR5 of 52% in 2021, while China's seed industry CR5 is only 17%, indicating significant room for improvement[4] - Major grain prices in China have shown a slight increase, with corn prices up by 11.9%, while soybean prices decreased by 0.7%, and wheat prices increased by 2.9% as of May 23, 2025[4] Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) - Three batches of genetically modified corn varieties have been approved for commercialization, totaling 161 varieties, with significant advantages for leading companies[4][16] - The domestic market for genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, with companies like Kangnong Seed focusing on high-yield and resilient hybrid corn varieties[19] Company Performance - Kangnong Seed's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 337 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.80%, with a net profit of approximately 82.60 million yuan and gross/net profit margins of 35.79% and 24.72%, respectively[30] - The company's three-year CAGR for revenue and net profit from 2021 to 2024 is 33.45% and 24.53%, respectively, indicating strong growth potential[30] Market Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange consumer service sector decreased from 57.9X to 53.2X, reflecting a broader market trend[34] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange consumer service sector fell from 119.36 billion yuan to 116.79 billion yuan during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025[38] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, market competition, and statistical data inaccuracies, which could impact the overall market performance[52]