Core Viewpoint - The current situation in the U.S. is not merely an economic slowdown but a systemic order collapse, as emphasized by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates [1][3]. Group 1: Economic and Monetary Order - The U.S. is facing a critical juncture where the budget deficit is projected to remain around 7% of GDP unless reduced to 3%, which is essential for managing trade deficits and avoiding supply-demand imbalances in the debt market [2][14]. - Dalio warns that the consequences of failing to address these issues could lead to a loss of currency value, increased domestic conflict, weakened democratic institutions, and escalated international conflicts, potentially resulting in military confrontations [3][14]. Group 2: Five Forces Driving the Current System - Dalio identifies five key forces affecting the current economic landscape: 1. **Monetary and Debt Order**: The U.S. allocates about 25% of its fiscal revenue to debt interest payments, indicating a severe debt issue as supply exceeds demand in the debt market [6][13]. 2. **Internal Political Order**: The failure of negotiation mechanisms and the significant division between political parties are leading to a breakdown in democratic cooperation [7]. 3. **International Order**: The shift from multilateralism to unilateralism marks the end of the post-1945 international order, with tariffs reflecting deeper systemic imbalances [8]. 4. **Natural Disasters and Technological Change**: Ongoing natural disasters and rapid technological advancements are also contributing to the instability [8]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Dalio advocates for a "3% plan" to cap the budget deficit at 3% of GDP, viewing this as a minimum requirement for systemic stability [14][19]. - He criticizes the current tariff policies as destructive and emphasizes the need for structured reforms rather than short-term stimulus measures, which could exacerbate systemic risks [16][18]. Group 4: Investment Insights - In the current macroeconomic environment, maintaining purchasing power is crucial, with Dalio highlighting the importance of gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [21]. - He suggests that a diversified investment portfolio is essential to withstand various economic conditions, advising individuals to assess their financial security before making investment decisions [22].