证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 红利价值筹码收集期——景顺长城中证国新 港股通央企红利 ETF 投资价值分析 MI&PPI 转正之时正是 EPS 回归之时，周期红利业绩有望迎来修复 我们预计 PPI 将于 26/1 回升至 0.1%。而随着 PPI 的转正，我们认为 EPS 修复 将成为牛市新驱动，上市公司的业绩有望在今明两年迎来持续回暖。过去一年 多的价格低位环境使得周期红利盈利能力持续承压、股价表现较弱，若参考 15- 16 年供给侧改革对于通胀水平拉动后市场风格的变化——16/8 后红利持续跑 赢创业板为代表的成长风格，16/9PPI 转正，16/11 市值风格转向大盘占优。若 PPI 有望在反内卷政策积极推动下在 26 年初回正，红利风格的相对收益有望 在周期红利的业绩复苏预期回升中修复。 上下半场切换期是长线资金收集红利价值难得的窗口期 过去一年，金融资产受益于货币政策的先行宽松，在股市层面呈现出小盘成长 风格的短期占优。但这一阶段恰好给红利价值提供了难得的筹码收集窗口，类 似于十年前孙正义与 GIC 的选择：孙正义和 GIC 在市场并不青睐英伟达和茅 台时认识到其充沛的自由现金流。一方面，红 ...

Core Viewpoint - The initiation of 1.2 trillion yuan hydropower projects is expected to drive the valuation recovery of infrastructure stocks, particularly benefiting undervalued, high-dividend leading construction companies [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The construction industry faced pressure in Q1 due to weaker-than-expected resumption of work, but Q2 is anticipated to see a boost in demand from accelerated issuance of special bonds and funding for "two heavy" projects, with over 300 billion yuan allocated in the third batch [1] - It is expected that investment will stabilize and gradually increase in the second half of the year, leading to improved quarterly performance for the sector [1] - As the industry enters a phase of stock management, the concentration of leading companies continues to rise, with the top 8 state-owned construction enterprises' market share in revenue expected to increase by 6.6 percentage points to 28.2% by Q1 2025 compared to 2022, and new order market share rising by 17.4 percentage points to 58.4% [1] Group 2: Policy and Financial Outlook - Policy measures are being implemented to promote debt resolution and payment clearance, alongside an optimization of dividend policies for state-owned construction enterprises, which is expected to enhance long-term dividend ratios [1] - The value of dividends is becoming increasingly prominent in the industry [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Hongguo Dividend ETF (510720) tracks the Shangguo Dividend Index (000151), which selects stocks with high dividend characteristics to reflect the overall performance of companies with strong dividend capabilities and ample cash flow [1] - The Shangguo Dividend Index includes companies across various industries, focusing on those that can maintain stable dividends, possess strong profitability, and have good financial conditions, with an overall emphasis on value investing [1]