Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that industries with prolonged weak performance tend to exhibit a "prolonged decline" characteristic, with defensive sectors like environmental protection, public utilities, and transportation more likely to underperform in the long term [1][2] Industry Analysis - Industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years and are nearing their historical longest underperformance periods include beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services [4] - The construction materials, electrical equipment, and food and beverage sectors have been underperforming for a duration close to their historical longest periods, with a difference of about one year [4] - Industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years but have a higher probability of outperforming in the fourth year include food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, social services, and biomedicine [2][4] Defensive Sector Characteristics - The public utility sector exhibits a typical public utility attribute, characterized by weak cycles and low beta, showing low elasticity during bull markets, as evidenced in the bull markets of 2006-2007, Q1-Q3 of 2009, and H2 of 2014 to H1 of 2015 [3] - The trend of negative excess returns in public utility sectors is attributed to small-cap stocks lacking both offensive characteristics in bull markets and stable dividend attributes, leading to a divergence between industry leaders and small-cap stocks [3] - The independent market performance of leading stocks in the public utility and environmental sectors since 2017 is driven by the revaluation of dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, with stable earnings and high dividends contributing to a stronger "moat" and scale effect for these leaders [3] Statistical Insights - An analysis of the Shenwan first-level industries from 2007 to 2025 reveals that the probability of an industry underperforming for three consecutive years is inversely related to the conditional probability of it outperforming in the fourth year [2]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report is to explore which industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years have a higher probability of reversal in the coming year. It highlights that industries like beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services are currently close to their historical longest periods of underperformance [2][3][10] - The report identifies that defensive industries such as environmental protection, public utilities, and transportation are more likely to exhibit prolonged underperformance due to their weak cyclical nature and low beta characteristics. These industries tend to show a "prolonged decline" feature [2][3][10] - The report indicates that the trend of negative excess returns in public utility sectors is attributed to the small-cap stocks within these sectors, which lack both offensive characteristics during bull markets and stable dividend attributes. The divergence between industry leaders and small-cap stocks has become more pronounced since 2017 [3][24] Group 2 - The report provides statistical analysis from 2007 to 2025, showing that the probability of an industry that has underperformed for three consecutive years winning in the fourth year is inversely related to its historical performance. This suggests that industries with a long history of weak performance are likely to continue this trend [3][10] - The report notes that the current industries that have underperformed for three years and are close to their historical longest underperformance periods include beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services. It also mentions that the food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, social services, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors have a higher probability of winning in the fourth year [4][38] - The report emphasizes that the monthly trading volume of public utilities, environmental protection, and transportation has been decreasing as a proportion of total A-share trading volume, indicating a long-term downward trend in liquidity for these sectors [4][24][37]