发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带三轨缩 口，短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注布林带中轨线 附近。成交量较昨日减 40.4 万手，持仓量较昨日增 2939 手；日内最高 1206， 最低 1188，收盘 1194，（较昨结算价）跌 3 元/吨，跌幅 0.25%。 2，现货市场：淡稳调整。企业装置稳定运行，综合供应维持高位。下游需 求表现平平，采购氛围不佳，维持低价刚需补库。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 56 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 供应方面，截止 1 月 22 日，国内纯碱产量 77.17 万吨，环比下跌 0.36 万 吨，跌幅 0.46%。其中，轻碱产量 35.88 万吨，环比下跌 0.27 万吨；重碱产量 41.29 万吨，环比下跌 0.09 万吨。综合产能利用率 86.42%，上周 86.82%，环比 下降 0.40%。其中氨碱产能利用率 87.69%，环比下降 2.27%；联产产能利用率 77.99%，环比下降 0.89%。15 家年产能百万吨及以 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "short - term shock" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Currently, the fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved, with policy expectations having a significant impact. However, due to the continuous release of new production capacity, the market supply - demand outlook is weakening, and short - term prices may fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened high and moved low, weakening within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing signal for short - term shocks. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 210,000 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest increased by 12,386 lots. The intraday high was 1242, the low was 1209, and the closing price was 1212, down 16 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It was stable with fluctuations. Enterprise equipment was operating stably, and supply remained at a high level. New orders at new prices were average, mostly based on previous orders. Downstream trading was tepid, with low purchasing enthusiasm and resistance to high prices, mainly maintaining low - price procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 38 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, up 11.20% week - on - week; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, up 1.33% week - on - week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, up 2.24% week - on - week [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5647 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.51% from last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 844,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 720,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15%. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable, but at the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, weakening the rigid demand for heavy soda ash [2] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of steam coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current high capacity utilization rate of soda ash, along with the gradual release of new production capacity, has led to a continuous increase in overall output. One glass production line started production today, slowing down the cold - repair rhythm and slightly recovering rigid demand. Additionally, continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment provide some short - term support. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved, but the continuous release of new production capacity weakens the market supply - demand outlook, and short - term prices may fluctuate [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly offers data on glass and soda ash prices, profits, and related market indicators. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From April 29 to May 6, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in some regions decreased. For example, the price of Shahe Safety 5mm large - plate dropped from 1220.0 to 1198.0, a decrease of 22.0; the price of Hubei large - plate low - price dropped from 1140.0 to 1110.0, a decrease of 30.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The FG09 contract price decreased from 1108.0 to 1071.0, a decrease of 37.0; the FG05 contract price decreased by 36.0 from April 29 to May 6 but increased by 7.0 from April 30 to May 6 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The North China coal - fired profit increased from 258.7 to 268.5, an increase of 9.8; the 09FG disk surface natural gas profit decreased from - 286.2 to - 313.6, a decrease of 27.3 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' price was around 1173, and the Hubei factory low - price was around 1110. The sales volume in Shahe was 98, in Hubei was 93, in East China was 107, and in South China was 114 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From April 29 to May 6, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1350.0 to 1330.0, a decrease of 20.0; the price of Central China heavy soda decreased from 1350.0 to 1290.0, a decrease of 60.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1329.0 to 1281.0, a decrease of 48.0; the SA01 contract price decreased by 50.0 during the same period [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The North China ammonia - alkali profit decreased from - 84.7 to - 122.1, a decrease of 37.5; the North China combined - alkali profit decreased from 69.5 to 18.4, a decrease of 51.1 [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The heavy soda spot price in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1290, and in Shahe warehouses was around 1340. There were many maintenance expectations in May [1].