油价震荡，BZ2604日度区间预计在6080-6320附近。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯苯产业日报 2026-02-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6152 | -47 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6195 | 38 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The short - term BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range estimated to be around 5350 - 5520 yuan/ton. The domestic pure benzene production is expected to rise slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rate has a slight increase. The inventory in East China ports continues to accumulate and is much higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic petroleum benzene profit has recovered from a low level and maintains a repair trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract is 5464 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton; the settlement price is 5451 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 18209 lots, with an increase of 8485 lots, and the open interest is 28809 lots, up 238 lots. Market prices vary by region, with the mainstream price in the East China market at 5295 yuan/ton, in the North China market at 5220 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), in the South China market at 5300 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in the Northeast at 5225 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton) [2] Spot Market - The spot price of pure benzene in the domestic market has different values in different regions. The Korean FOB intermediate price is 659 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton, and the Chinese CFR intermediate price is 668.22 dollars/ton, up 2.34 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 63.48 dollars/barrel, up 0.38 dollars/barrel, and the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 534.25 dollars/ton, up 11.75 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 75.18%, up 0.29 percentage points, and the weekly output is 43.55 tons, down 0.08 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 30 tons, up 2.7 tons. The production cost is 4993.25 yuan/ton, down 115.75 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 332 yuan/ton, up 131 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene is 70.23%, down 0.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 75.52%, up 1.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 79.73%, up 1.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 59.81%, down 3.17 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 68.2%, up 4.6 percentage points. From December 27 to January 2, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.27% to 71.34% [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.22% to 75.11%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 1.07% to 60%. As of January 5, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 31.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.00%. As of January 4, the weekly profit of petroleum benzene was 371 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment is warm, and industrial products mainly rose during the day. BZ2603 closed up at 5433 yuan/ton. Recently, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene have slightly increased, and the domestic pure benzene output has increased month - on - month. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream has slightly increased. The inventory in East China ports continues to accumulate and is much higher than the same period in previous years. The profit of domestic petroleum benzene has recovered from a low level. In January, some devices will be under maintenance while others will restart, and new devices are planned to be put into production, so the domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The load of large - scale styrene devices downstream is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable; the overall operating rate of caprolactam is expected to change little; some overhauled devices of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are planned to restart. In terms of cost, the market believes that it will take time for Venezuela's crude oil production to recover, and international oil prices fluctuated and rose yesterday. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5350 - 5520 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene was 5433 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan/ton; the main settlement price was 5417 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton. The main trading volume was 9724 lots, a decrease of 6220 lots; the main open interest was 28571 lots, an increase of 797 lots. The mainstream market prices of pure benzene in East China, South China, North China, and Northeast China were 5290, 5300, 5250, and 5233 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 60, 0, 0, and - 3 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream market prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 5425 and 5040 yuan/ton respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton in Jiangsu. The spot prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) and China (CFR) were 657 and 665.88 dollars/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 9 and 7.28 dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 63.1 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.72 dollars/barrel. The CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 522.5 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.63 dollars/ton [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 75.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%. The weekly output was 43.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 30 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons. The production cost was 4993.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 115.75 yuan/ton. The production profit was 332 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 131 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 70.23%, 75.52%, 79.73%, 59.81%, and 68.2% respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 0.47%, 1.47%, 1.58%, - 3.17%, and 4.6% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 27th to January 2nd, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.22% to 75.11% week - on - week, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 1.07% to 60%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.27% to 71.34% week - on - week. As of January 5th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 31.8 tons, a 6.00% increase from the previous period. As of January 4th, the weekly profit of petroleum benzene was 371 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous period [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 opened with a gap down, rebounded after a decline, and finally closed at 5406 yuan/ton. Recently, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene have slightly increased, and the domestic pure benzene production has increased month-on-month. The operating rates of downstream caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid have increased month-on-month, while those of styrene and aniline have decreased. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream has slightly increased. The inventory at East China ports continues to accumulate, far higher than the same period in previous years. The profit of domestic petroleum benzene has recovered from a low level and is maintaining a repair trend. In January, two sets of equipment at Zhejiang Petrochemical will be under maintenance, while equipment at Fune Energy, Yunnan Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, etc. will be restarted one after another, and a new device at BASF Guangdong is planned to be put into production. The domestic pure benzene production is expected to increase slightly. The load of large-scale styrene equipment downstream is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable. A small number of caprolactam devices have resumed operation, and the overall operating rate is expected to change little. Some maintenance devices for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are planned to restart. In terms of cost, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has been gradually digested, and there are still concerns about future crude oil oversupply. International oil prices fluctuated weakly during the day. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5350 - 5520 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan; the settlement price was 5410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan. The trading volume was 15,944 lots, an increase of 6366 lots; the open interest was 27,774 lots, an increase of 489 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5350 yuan/ton, in the North China market was 5250 yuan/ton, in the South China market was 5300 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast region was 5236 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu was 5375 yuan/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea was 666 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price in China was 673.16 US dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 61.38 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.53 US dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 530.13 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.25 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 75.18%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.55 tons, a decrease of 0.08 tons. The terminal inventory of pure benzene at ports was 30 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons. The production cost was 4993.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115.75 yuan; the production profit was 332 yuan/ton, an increase of 131 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 70.23%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 75.52%, an increase of 1.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 79.73%, an increase of 1.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 59.81%, a decrease of 3.17 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 68.2%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.22% to 75.11%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 1.07% to 60%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.27% to 71.34%. As of January 5, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 31.8 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.00%. As of January 4, the weekly profit of petroleum benzene was 371 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 showed a slight fluctuation, closing at 5441 yuan/ton last week. The operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene decreased, leading to a decline in domestic pure benzene production. The operating rates of downstream styrene and caprolactam decreased, while those of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid increased. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased slightly. The inventory at East China ports continued to accumulate, higher than the same period in previous years. The profit of petroleum benzene recovered slightly but remained at a low - valuation level due to weak supply - demand. This week, a domestic disproportionation unit is under maintenance, but the increase in imported resources is expected to lead to a slight rise in the supply of domestic petroleum benzene. In December, the impact of domestic petroleum benzene maintenance changes little compared to November. The commissioning and restart of downstream styrene units, along with the expected load increase of phenol and caprolactam, may drive a slight increase in pure benzene demand, alleviating the wide - balance state of spot supply - demand. In terms of cost, geopolitical uncertainties in Russia - Ukraine and US - Venezuela still exist. The market expects an increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and international oil prices have shown strong fluctuations recently. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate, with a daily range around 5370 - 5500 [2] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract was 5441 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; the settlement price was 5447 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan. The trading volume was 10465 lots, a decrease of 780 lots; the open interest was 22857 lots, with a change of - 667 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5335 yuan/ton; in the North China market, it was 5270 yuan/ton; in the South China market, it was 5300 yuan/ton; in the Northeast region, it was 5231 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu was 5375 yuan/ton, and in Shanxi, it was 5150 yuan/ton. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 659 dollars/ton, and the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China was 668.82 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 64.31 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.16 dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 567.25 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.25 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 76.59%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the weekly output was 44.62 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 16.4 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons. The production cost was 5246.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.6 yuan; the production profit was 78 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 86.68%, a decrease of 1.54 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 81.16%, an increase of 2.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 77.19%, an increase of 1.51 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 59.4%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points [2] Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, SH2601 fell 1.03% to close at 2212 yuan/ton. From November 22nd to 28th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 0.14% to 72.99%. As of December 1st, the pure benzene inventory in East China was 22.4 tons, a 36.59% increase from the previous period. From November 21st to 27th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 78 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - BZ2603 fluctuates strongly and closes at 5,463 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased month - on - month, while that of hydrogenated benzene increased. The domestic pure benzene output decreased slightly. The operating rates of downstream caprolactam and phenol increased, while those of styrene, aniline, and adipic acid decreased. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased slightly. Due to more arriving resources and insufficient downstream提货 demand, port inventories continued to accumulate. Domestic supply and demand are weak, and petroleum benzene profits remain low. This week, petroleum benzene plants are expected to resume operation, and two hydrogenated benzene plants will shut down. Meanwhile, imports will increase, so the supply of pure benzene is expected to rise. Terminal demand is weak, styrene maintains low - level operation, and downstream consumption is unlikely to grow. In terms of cost, international oil prices closed lower yesterday. As the operating rate of US refineries increases, the price difference between RBOB gasoline and Brent crude oil narrows, and the sustainability of overseas gasoline - blending demand is questionable. Although the price difference between US and South Korean pure benzene is still at a five - year high, the positive impact is limited under the background of loose domestic supply and weak international oil prices. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 5,360 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract is 5,463 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 52 yuan; the settlement price is 5,434 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The trading volume is 13,715 lots, up 4,225 lots; the open interest is 23,294 lots, up 579 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic market, the mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,290 yuan/ton, 5,300 yuan/ton, and 5,202 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in East China, South China, and North China remain unchanged, while that in Northeast China increases by 20 yuan/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) is 646 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; the CIF price in China is 659.94 US dollars/ton, down 4.4 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 63.21 US dollars/barrel, down 0.91 US dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan is 560.88 US dollars/ton, down 1.75 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 76.67%, down 1.31 percentage points; the weekly output is 44.67 tons, down 0.76 tons. The terminal port inventory of pure benzene is 14.7 tons, up 3.4 tons. The production cost is 5,314.4 yuan/ton, down 1.8 yuan; the production profit is 40 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene is 68.95%, down 0.3 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 88.23%, up 2.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.71%, up 11.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 75.68%, down 4.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 55.5%, down 6.5 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 1.31% month - on - month to 76.67%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 3.2% to 57.75%. From November 15th to 21st, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.93% month - on - month to 73.13%. As of November 24th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China is 16.4 tons, up 11.56% from the previous period. From November 15th to 21st, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 11 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate weakly. The international oil price faces medium - and long - term pressure due to OPEC's production increase and the slowdown of global economic growth, but the Russia - Ukraine conflict remains highly uncertain. The short - term downward trend of BZ2603 may continue, but the decline space may be limited as the 6 - day RSI enters the oversold range below 20 [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene was 5461 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan; the main settlement price was 5535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan. The main trading volume was 8145 lots, an increase of 1292 lots; the main open interest was 15376 lots, an increase of 1387 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5575 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North China market, it was 5290 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5615 - 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northeast region, it was 5400 - 5416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 - 28 yuan. The offshore intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 676 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 684.32 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.63 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 61.1 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.03 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 537 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.5 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.8 tons, a decrease of 2.22 tons. The terminal port inventory of pure benzene was 9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 71.88%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, an increase of 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 3.81% to 75.48%, and that of hydrobenzene decreased by 0.85% to 62.39%. The weighted开工率 of pure benzene downstream decreased by 2.35% to 75.37%. As of October 20th, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 9.9 tons, a 10% increase from last week. From October 10th to 16th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 33 yuan/ton to 347 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 oscillated strongly and closed at 6307 yuan/ton. In the short term, the domestic pure benzene market continues to have stronger supply than demand, and the low - valuation state of spot may persist. The cost is affected by the easing of concerns about US tariff policies and the strengthening of international oil prices. Macroscopically, the US - EU tariff agreement and the 90 - day extension of the suspended tariffs between China and the US have an impact. BZ2603's daily K - line should pay attention to the pressure around 6440 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 6307 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the settlement price was 6304 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The trading volume was 10003 lots, down 471 lots; the open interest was 12826 lots, down 241 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast markets were 6040 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, and 6065 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 6200 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) and China (CFR) were 745 dollars/ton and 757.5 dollars/ton respectively, both up 7 dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 71.47 dollars/barrel, up 1.17 dollars. The CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 589.25 dollars/ton, up 10.75 dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 42.48 tons, down 1.04 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 17.1 tons, up 0.7 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 78.84%, up 0.54 percentage points; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 95.72% (up 6.41 percentage points), 78.54% (down 0.46 percentage points), 69.24% (down 0.1 percentage point), and 64.3% (up 2 percentage points) respectively [2]. Industry News - The Politburo meeting pointed out that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, release domestic demand potential, expand high - level opening - up, and prevent and resolve key risks. The China - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm from July 28th to 29th, and the suspension of some tariffs and counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. From July 18th to 24th, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 19 yuan/ton to 609 yuan/ton. As of July 28th, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 17 tons, down 0.58% from last week [2]. Forecast for the Future - This week, affected by the restart of domestic plants, the production of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene is expected to increase. The import volume is expected to decrease, which may lead to a reduction in total supply, but the loose supply of pure benzene is expected to continue. The increase in phenol plant shutdowns this week may drive down downstream demand in the short term; in the long - term, the demand for pure benzene may improve marginally as downstream plants are put into operation from July to August [2].