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瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20251009
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 12:03
纯苯产业日报 2025-10-09 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 5763 | -37 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 5732 | -69 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | 5189 5860 | -394 主力持仓量:纯苯(日,手) -20 市场价:纯苯:华北市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | 12994 5870 | 615 0 | | | | 5900 | 0 市场价:纯苯:东北地区:主流价(日,元/吨) | 5700 | -102 | | | 市场价:纯苯:华南市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | | | | | | 现货市场 | 市场价:加氢苯:江苏 ...
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250922
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 09:46
Report Category - This is a daily report on the pure benzene industry [1] Core Viewpoint - BZ2603 showed a weak oscillation, closing at 5921 yuan/ton. Last week, two new petroleum benzene plants were shut down, and some hydrobenzene plants restarted, resulting in a decline in domestic pure benzene supply. The weighted operating rate of downstream products increased slightly. The port inventory of pure benzene decreased. This week, some petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene plants are expected to restart, and the number of imported cargo arrivals is expected to increase, so the supply of pure benzene is expected to rise. The five major downstream devices are expected to increase their loads, which may drive short - term demand up. In the long - term, the large - scale production capacity of styrene is in the rotation maintenance cycle, limiting the increase in pure benzene demand. Near the National Day, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises may support the price of pure benzene. In terms of cost, the impact of OPEC+ production increase continues, and the long - term expectation of strong global crude oil supply over demand puts pressure on oil prices, but the short - term geopolitical situation is still uncertain. In the short term, the supply - demand of pure benzene has marginal improvement but is difficult to drive up prices. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate, with the daily operating range expected to be around 5900 - 5980 [2] Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5921 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the settlement price was 5922 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; the trading volume was 2420 lots, and the open interest was 13202 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions were 5885 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 5900 yuan/ton, and 5956 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 40, 0, and - 44 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions were 6050 yuan/ton and 5800 yuan/ton respectively, with the former down 50 yuan/ton. The offshore intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 713 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton, and the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 731.5 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 67.18 dollars/barrel, down 0.6 dollars/barrel; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 596.75 dollars/ton, down 2.63 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 45.01 tons, down 0.54 tons; the port inventory was 13.4 tons, down 1 ton; the production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 73.44%, 95.72%, 78.54%, 69.24%, and 64.3% respectively, with changes of - 1.54, + 6.41, - 0.46, - 0.1, and + 2 percentage points [2] Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene in China decreased by 0.94% to 78.35%, and the capacity utilization rate of hydrobenzene increased by 5.35% to 59.94%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.74% to 74.29%. As of September 22nd, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 10.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.15%. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of petroleum benzene decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton [2]
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250917
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 09:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - BZ2603 fluctuated weakly and closed at 6,057 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase slightly this week, with the restart of some downstream plants potentially narrowing the supply - demand gap in the short term. However, the demand recovery may be limited due to the styrene maintenance cycle from late - September to October. Pre - holiday stocking demand may support prices. International oil prices are strong, and positive macro - factors are emerging [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene was 6,057 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the main settlement price was 6,069 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main trading volume was 2,238 lots, down 2,681 lots; the main open interest was 12,075 lots, down 47 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China were 5,990 yuan/ton, 6,050 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 6,045 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Northeast China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 6,125 yuan/ton and remained unchanged respectively. The FOB mid - price in South Korea was 721 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR mid - price in China was 740.5 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 68.65 US dollars/barrel, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 604.88 US dollars/ton, down 3.62 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13%. The weekly output was 45.55 million tons, up 0.22 million tons. The port inventory was 14.4 million tons, down 0.5 million tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 74.98%, down 4.76%. The capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 95.72% (up 6.41%), 78.54% (down 0.46%), 69.24% (down 0.1%), and 64.3% (up 2%) respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of September 15, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 13.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.94%. From September 5 - 11, the profit of petroleum benzene of PetroChina was 443 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 69 yuan/ton [2]. 3.7 Outlook - This week, the operating loads of domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene plants are expected to increase, and the number of imported cargo arrivals is expected to decrease. Some downstream plants such as styrene, caprolactam, and aniline will restart. However, styrene is in the maintenance cycle from late - September to October, which may limit the demand recovery. Pre - holiday stocking demand may support prices. International oil prices are strong due to geopolitical conflicts, and positive macro - factors such as smooth Sino - US - Spanish talks and upcoming domestic policies are emerging [2].
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250915
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 11:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ2603 fluctuated strongly and closed at 6,032 yuan/ton. The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase slightly this week, while the demand recovery may be limited. The pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises may support the price, but it is difficult to drive up the price. The short - term geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on the cost, and the international oil price is under pressure. Affected by the upcoming new round of key industry stable - growth policies, industrial products mainly rose during the day. The daily K - line of BZ2603 should pay attention to the pressure around 6,070 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The latest daily closing price of pure benzene futures is 6,032 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 44; the settlement price is 6,021 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 32. The trading volume is 4,149 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 596; the open interest is 12,379 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 80 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 5,910 yuan/ton, 5,990 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 5,970 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 6,075 yuan/ton and 5,750 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 714 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 732.5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 67.8 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.32; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 598.5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.5 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13; the weekly output is 45.55 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.22. The port inventory is 14.4 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5. The production cost is 5,327.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 118.2; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 76 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 74.98%, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.76; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 6.41; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.46; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 2 [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 15, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.4 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. From September 5th to 11th, the profit of petroleum benzene of PetroChina was 443 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 69 yuan/ton [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase slightly this week, and the restart of some downstream parking devices may narrow the domestic supply - demand gap in the short term. However, the demand recovery may be limited due to the styrene maintenance cycle from late September to October. The pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises may support the price, but it is difficult to drive up the price. The short - term geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on the cost, and the international oil price is under pressure. Affected by the upcoming new round of key industry stable - growth policies, industrial products mainly rose during the day. The daily K - line of BZ2603 should pay attention to the pressure around 6,070 [2]
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250910
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 09:06
Report Overview - **Report Name**: Pure Benzene Industry Daily Report 2025 - 09 - 10 [1] - **Analyst**: Lin Jingyi (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558), Assistant Analyst: Xu Tianze (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03133092) [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - BZ2603 showed a slight oscillation and closed at 6,019 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the supply of pure benzene is expected to contract slightly, while domestic demand is expected to decline significantly. The supply - demand gap is expected to widen, putting pressure on spot prices. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the range around 5,950 - 6,100 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 6,019 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the settlement price was 6,012 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The trading volume was 2,588 lots, down 43 lots; the open interest was 13,597 lots, down 15 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast markets were 5,915 yuan/ton, 5,910 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 5,905 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 6,025 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 715 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars; the CFR mid - price in China was 732.5 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 66.87 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 597.25 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 45.33 tons, up 0.14 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 14.9 tons, up 1.1 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 79.74%, up 1.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 8, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 14.4 tons, a 3.36% decrease from the previous period. From August 29 to September 4, the profit of the Chinese petroleum benzene industry was 512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 159 yuan/ton from the previous period [2]
下游对高价趋于谨慎 预计短期纯苯延续震荡格局
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-10 08:04
Group 1 - The core viewpoint from New Lake Futures indicates that in the short to medium term, pure benzene is likely to continue following the trends of related products [1] - The current market atmosphere for pure benzene is described as cautious, with downstream buyers being hesitant about high prices, leading to lower procurement prices and limited trading volume [1] - The current price of pure benzene in the East China spot market has slightly decreased, settling between 5900-5930 yuan/ton, reflecting a weak operational outlook [1] Group 2 - Zhengxin Futures anticipates that the short-term trend for pure benzene will continue to exhibit a fluctuating pattern [2] - The extension of maintenance at Fuhai and the delayed restart until mid-September, along with stable pure benzene production and declining hydrogenated benzene output, contribute to a decrease in total supply [2] - The overall demand is affected by the consumption of styrene and phenol, leading to a limited positive outlook for the fundamentals of pure benzene [2]
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250902
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 09:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction of pure benzene intensifies, and the expectation of spot price decline is clear. Affected by weak supply - demand and cost, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 5936 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the main settlement price is 5966 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The main trading volume is 5447 lots, down 2217 lots; the main open interest is 13794 lots, up 516 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 5930 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 6000 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 5955 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 6025 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) and 5840 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The FOB middle price of pure benzene in South Korea is 716 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars; the CFR middle price of pure benzene in China is 732.5 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 69.08 dollars/barrel, up 0.98 dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 596.25 dollars/ton, down 1.13 dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 45.19 tons, up 0.11 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 13.8 tons, down 0.6 tons. The production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.07%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41%; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1%; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 1, the commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu is 14.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.97% and a year - on - year increase of 119.12%. From August 22nd to 28th, the profit of petroleum benzene is 671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36 yuan/ton. BZ2603 fell 1.10% to close at 5936 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic petroleum benzene plants mainly operated stably, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 0.19% to 79.18% month - on - month; some hydrogenated benzene plants reduced production or stopped, with the capacity utilization rate decreasing by 1.57% to 56.12% month - on - month. The downstream weighted开工率 of pure benzene decreased by 1.46% to 76.96% month - on - month. The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased by 4.17% to 13.8 tons month - on - month [2]
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250901
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 09:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the range estimated to be around 5950 - 6100 yuan/ton. The short - term supply - demand contradiction intensifies, and the expectation of spot price decline is clear. The supply and cost are weak, and the global crude oil supply - demand is weak, although short - term Middle East geopolitical deterioration still supports oil prices to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6010 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the main settlement price is 6002 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan. The main trading volume is 7664 lots, up 2344 lots; the main open interest is 13278 lots, down 140 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 5930 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 6000 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 5955 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 6050 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) and 5840 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The FOB middle price of pure benzene in South Korea is 724 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; the CFR middle price of pure benzene in China is 739.5 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 68.1 dollars/barrel, up 0.57 dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 597.38 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 45.19 tons, up 0.11 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 13.8 tons, down 0.6 tons. The production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.07%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41%; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1%; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2]. Industry News - As of September 1st, the commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu is 14.9 tons, up 7.97% month - on - month and 119.12% year - on - year. From August 22nd to 28th, the profit of petroleum benzene is 671 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton month - on - month [2]. - BZ2603 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6010 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, domestic petroleum benzene plants mainly operated stably, with the capacity utilization rate up 0.19% to 79.18%; some hydrogenated benzene plants reduced loads or stopped production, with the capacity utilization rate down 1.57% to 56.12%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure benzene downstream decreased to varying degrees, with the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream down 1.46% to 76.96%. The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased 4.17% to 13.8 tons [2].
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 12:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 shows a weakening and oscillating trend, closing at 6,206 yuan/ton. The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain abundant, while the consumption may continue to be weak. The situation of supply exceeding demand in the domestic pure benzene market is expected to continue, exerting pressure on prices. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with technical support around 6,100 and resistance around 6,300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6,206 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main settlement price is 6,217 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The main trading volume is 5,336 lots, down 410 lots; the main open interest is 13,064 lots, up 371 lots. The mainstream prices in different domestic markets have different changes, with some remaining unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB middle - price is 736 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; the CFR middle - price in China is 750.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The spot price in the domestic market is 6,225 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 68.49 US dollars/barrel, up 0.21 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 584.5 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 45.08 million tons, up 0.56 million tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.4 million tons, down 0.2 million tons. The production cost is 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.53%, up 0.35%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41%. The capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1%. The capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2 [2]. Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, the profit of PetroChina's benzene was 707 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of August 25th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 13.8 million tons, a decrease of 4.17% compared with the previous period [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the impact of the restart of previous petroleum - benzene devices has expanded, with the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene up 0.98% to 78.99%, while the number of shut - down and load - reducing devices of hydro - benzene in North China has increased, with the capacity utilization rate down 5.03% to 57.69%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure - benzene downstream industries changed differently last week, with the weighted operating rate of pure - benzene downstream up 0.19% to 78.42%. The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased by 4.17% to 13.8 million tons. This week, petroleum - benzene devices are expected to operate stably, and there are both shut - down and restart devices for hydro - benzene. Overall, the domestic pure - benzene output is expected to change little. The arrival volume of imported pure benzene in East China will increase, and the supply may remain abundant. Terminal demand is insufficient, and all five major downstream industries of pure benzene are in the red, so the consumption of pure benzene may continue to be weak [2]. Cost and Price Forecast - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has increased, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine meeting is limited. The international oil price has rebounded recently, but the impact of OPEC+ production increase restricts the upward space of oil prices. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with technical support around 6,100 and resistance around 6,300 [2].
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:11
Group 1: Report Summary - The short - term supply of pure benzene in China is expected to exceed demand, putting pressure on prices; in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction may improve as new downstream capacity in August is higher than that of pure benzene [2] - The supply of crude oil exceeds demand, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks [2] - Technically, for BZ2603, attention should be paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6300 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract is 6205 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the settlement price is 6177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2] - The trading volume of the main pure benzene contract is 11282 lots, up 7924 lots; the open interest is 13106 lots, down 877 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market is 6250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it is 6095 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 732 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 746.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 67.6 US dollars/barrel, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 574.5 US dollars/ton, up 3.75 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 44.52 tons, down 0.08 tons [2] - The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.6 tons, down 1.7 tons; the production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan [2] - The production profit of pure benzene is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.18%, up 0.45%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2] Group 3: Industry News - China will comprehensively rectify the petrochemical and refining industries, phasing out small facilities and upgrading backward capacity while directing investment towards advanced materials [2] - From August 8 - 14, the profit of petroleum benzene in China was 689 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton; the BZ2603 fluctuated widely and closed at 6205 yuan/ton [2] - As of August 18, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 14.4 tons, down 1.37% [2]