Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to be loose with new capacity and restarted plants, and the demand support is limited due to some downstream loss - making products cutting production. The cost - end support is weak, and the rebound space is restricted, with a possible short - term adjustment under the drag of oil prices [5][8]. - For styrene, the supply is limited with some plants increasing load and some under maintenance. The demand support is limited due to high inventory and profit pressure of some downstream products. Although the short - term supply - demand expectation improves, the rebound space is restricted due to profit repair, weakening demand expectation, and weak cost - end support [9][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Cost - Under the pressure of OPEC+ continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. With more negative factors in the crude oil market recently, such as the US promoting the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement negotiation and the increasing uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation next month, oil prices are under pressure. Short - term Brent crude oil is concerned about the $60/barrel support, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical dynamics [4]. Supply and Demand - Supply: There are plant restarts and new capacity included recently. Although some plants reduced their loads, the supply remains loose. The output of petroleum benzene this cycle is 44.67 tons (- 0.76 tons), and the capacity utilization rate is 76.67% (- 1.31%). The benzene hydrogenation plant operating rate is 57.75% (+ 3.2%), with an output of 7.58 tons (+ 0.42 tons) [5]. - Demand: The downstream operating rates show mixed trends. The styrene operating rate is 68.95% (- 0.3%), the phenol operating rate is 79% (+ 11.4%), the caprolactam operating rate is 88.24% (+ 2.2%), and the aniline operating rate is 75.68% (- 4.5%) [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, treat BZ2603 as short - biased on rallies. - Arbitrage: The EB03 - BZ03 spread is around 1122 (+ 28), and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. Valuation - Neutral to low. Due to the repeated speculation of gasoline - blending demand, the pure benzene price rebounded slightly, but the weak fundamental expectation and weak oil - price expectation limited the increase. The BZN has been repaired to some extent, expanding from 100 yuan/ton last week to around 112 yuan/ton [8]. 2025 Production Plan - Multiple enterprises in different provinces have pure benzene and its downstream production plans in 2025, including enterprises like Yulong Petrochemical, ExxonMobil, etc. The planned new capacity of pure benzene is 128 tons/year, and the new capacity of downstream products is about 238 tons/year [13][14]. October - December 2025 Device Dynamics - Many plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance from October to December 2025, with a total planned shutdown capacity of 212 tons. The net supply of domestic pure benzene产业链 devices decreases by about 11.4 tons, and the net demand decreases by about 17.2 tons, showing inventory accumulation [16][17]. Styrene Supply - With the repair of industry profits, some plants increased their loads. Last week, the overall styrene output was 34.29 tons (- 0.15 tons), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.95% (- 0.3%). This week, one plant in East China restarted, and one plant each in Northeast, East, and South China adjusted their loads, resulting in a slight output decrease [9]. Demand - The consumption of styrene by the three major downstream products is 26.69 tons (+ 0.9 tons). The capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS all increased. As of November 20, the EPS capacity utilization rate is 56.27% (month - on - month + 4.64%), the PS capacity utilization rate is 55.9% (month - on - month + 0.5%), and the ABS capacity utilization rate is 72.4% (month - on - month + 0.6%) [9][77]. Strategy - Unilateral: Treat EB01 as range - bound. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines for now [10]. Valuation - Neutral to low. The supply - demand situation of styrene has improved. Driven by overseas gasoline - blending speculation and exports, styrene first rose and then fell, and the industry cash flow has been slightly repaired. The non - integrated cash flow has rebounded from around - 106 yuan/ton last week to around 9 yuan/ton [11]. Import and Export - Under the expectation of overseas plant maintenance, styrene exports are expected to increase in November. China is gradually changing from a net importer of styrene in the past five years to a net exporter [63][67]. Inventory - The port inventory of styrene has decreased. The downstream 3S high inventory reflects the large demand resistance in further transmission to the terminal and also restricts the increase of loads [68][86]. Downstream - The weekly operating rate of downstream products has generally increased slightly, but the downstream profits have been compressed, and the downstream inventory is at a relatively high level on a month - on - month basis [73][78][83]. Terminal - Domestic demand support is limited, as shown by the data of domestic and export sales of home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [88].

(元 广发期货 张晓珍 纯苯-苯乙烯日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月17日 | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 11月14日 | 11月13日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 布伦特原油(12月) | 64.39 | 63.01 | 1.38 | 2.2% | 美元/桶 | | WTI原油(12月) | 60.09 | 58.69 | 1.40 | 2.4% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | 577 | ਦਿਰੇ | 8 | 1.4% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 735 | 735 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纯本 | 678 | 676 | 2 | 0.3% | 美元/吨 | | 纯本-石脑油 | 101 | 107 | -6 | -5.6% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 158 | 166 | -8 | -4.8% | | | 纯苯(中石化华东挂牌价) | 5300 | 5300 | 0 | 0.0% | | | 纯苯华东现货 | 540 ...

Report 1: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure due to the weak macro - atmosphere, cost, and supply - demand performance [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from - 0.79% to - 1.04%. The differences between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed, with L2509 - 2601 down 24.00% and PP2509 - 2601 up 12.33% [2]. - Spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LDPE film decreased, with declines of - 0.62% and - 0.73% respectively. The basis of North China LL and East China PP also changed [2]. - Non - standard prices of PE and PP mostly decreased, such as the East China LDPE price down - 0.54% [2]. - **Inventory and Production** - PE enterprise inventory and social inventory increased by 27.67% and 4.02% respectively. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 30.96% and 39.48% respectively [2]. - PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, while the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26%. PP device operating rate increased by 0.6%, and the powder operating rate increased by 5.4% [2]. Report 2: Methanol Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the methanol market, under the game of supply and demand, prices may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the stability of overseas device operation, the customs clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and the actual arrival performance, as well as the port destocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas restriction expectations [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 2.03% and - 1.51% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 200.00%, and the Taicang basis decreased by - 18.18% [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang Port decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.35% to - 1.31% [4]. - **Inventory and Production** - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, while port inventory decreased by - 3.36%, and social inventory decreased by - 1.61% [4]. - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by - 1.86%, and the overseas exchange and northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio changed. Downstream, the operating rates of some devices such as acetic acid and MTBE decreased [4]. Report 3: Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak, and the price drive is weak in October. The price of styrene is also under pressure in the short term due to the weak supply - demand and oil price expectations [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Upstream Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed. The price differences between pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha also changed [6]. - The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by - 0.7%, and the BZ futures 2603 decreased by - 1.4% [6]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Price Differences** - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by - 1.8%, and EB futures 2511 and 2512 also decreased [6]. - The EB basis (03) increased by 950.0%, and the styrene import profit increased by 114.6% [6]. - **Inventory and Production** - The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu decreased by - 1.1% and - 2.7% respectively. The operating rates of some devices in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed [6]. Report 4: Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report Core Viewpoints - For PX, the supply - demand is repaired to some extent in the fourth quarter but remains weak overall, with limited short - term drive and mainly low - level fluctuations. PTA also has limited short - term drive and low - level fluctuations. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and its price is under pressure. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices also face different supply - demand situations [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Upstream Prices** - On October 17, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed. The exchange rate remained basically unchanged [7]. - **PX - Related Prices and Price Differences** - CFR China PX price decreased by - 0.4%. PX spot price in RMB decreased by - 1.6%, and PX futures 2511 and 2601 also decreased [7]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Price Differences** - PTA East China spot price decreased by - 0.3%, and TA futures 2601 and 2605 decreased [7]. - PTA basis (01) and TA01 - TA05 spread changed [7]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Price Differences** - MEG East China spot price decreased by - 0.1%, and EG futures 2601 and 2605 decreased [7]. - MEG basis (01) increased by 261.3%, and MEG import profit increased by - 48.5% [7]. - **Inventory and Production** - MEG port inventory increased by 6.7%, and the arrival expectation increased by 27.5%. The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the PTA operating rate increasing by 2.3% [7].