纯苯-苯乙烯周报 供 需 预期偏 弱且油价支撑有限 ， 纯 苯反弹承 压 供需预期好转但成本端支撑偏弱 ， 价格驱动有限 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 广发期货有限公司 研究所 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月22日 Saturday 张晓珍 从业资格：F0288167 投资咨询资格：Z0003135 纯苯主要逻辑及观点 成本：在OPEC+持续增产及美国原油产量新高压力下，原油供需格局依然偏弱。叠加近期原油市场利空因素有所增加，美国推动俄乌和平协议谈判，以及美联储下个月降息预期不确定 性增加，油价有所承压。短期布油关注60美元/桶支撑，关注俄乌地缘动态。 供需： 近期有装置重启及新装置产能计入，虽有装置降负，但供应维持宽松；下游部分亏损品种减产保价，需求端支撑有限，纯苯供需预期偏弱。 供应端，石油苯本周期产量44.67万吨（-0.76万吨），产能利用率76.67%（-1.31%）。本周期无棣鑫岳重整、中化泉州重整等装置停车；苯加氢装置开工率57.75%（+3.2%）， 产量7.58万（+0.42万吨）。 需求端，下游开工率涨跌互现。其 ...

(元 广发期货 张晓珍 纯苯-苯乙烯日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月17日 | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 11月14日 | 11月13日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 布伦特原油(12月) | 64.39 | 63.01 | 1.38 | 2.2% | 美元/桶 | | WTI原油(12月) | 60.09 | 58.69 | 1.40 | 2.4% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | 577 | ਦਿਰੇ | 8 | 1.4% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 735 | 735 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纯本 | 678 | 676 | 2 | 0.3% | 美元/吨 | | 纯本-石脑油 | 101 | 107 | -6 | -5.6% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 158 | 166 | -8 | -4.8% | | | 纯苯(中石化华东挂牌价) | 5300 | 5300 | 0 | 0.0% | | | 纯苯华东现货 | 540 ...

Report 1: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure due to the weak macro - atmosphere, cost, and supply - demand performance [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from - 0.79% to - 1.04%. The differences between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed, with L2509 - 2601 down 24.00% and PP2509 - 2601 up 12.33% [2]. - Spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LDPE film decreased, with declines of - 0.62% and - 0.73% respectively. The basis of North China LL and East China PP also changed [2]. - Non - standard prices of PE and PP mostly decreased, such as the East China LDPE price down - 0.54% [2]. - **Inventory and Production** - PE enterprise inventory and social inventory increased by 27.67% and 4.02% respectively. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 30.96% and 39.48% respectively [2]. - PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, while the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26%. PP device operating rate increased by 0.6%, and the powder operating rate increased by 5.4% [2]. Report 2: Methanol Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the methanol market, under the game of supply and demand, prices may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the stability of overseas device operation, the customs clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and the actual arrival performance, as well as the port destocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas restriction expectations [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 2.03% and - 1.51% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 200.00%, and the Taicang basis decreased by - 18.18% [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang Port decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.35% to - 1.31% [4]. - **Inventory and Production** - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, while port inventory decreased by - 3.36%, and social inventory decreased by - 1.61% [4]. - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by - 1.86%, and the overseas exchange and northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio changed. Downstream, the operating rates of some devices such as acetic acid and MTBE decreased [4]. Report 3: Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak, and the price drive is weak in October. The price of styrene is also under pressure in the short term due to the weak supply - demand and oil price expectations [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Upstream Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed. The price differences between pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha also changed [6]. - The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by - 0.7%, and the BZ futures 2603 decreased by - 1.4% [6]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Price Differences** - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by - 1.8%, and EB futures 2511 and 2512 also decreased [6]. - The EB basis (03) increased by 950.0%, and the styrene import profit increased by 114.6% [6]. - **Inventory and Production** - The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu decreased by - 1.1% and - 2.7% respectively. The operating rates of some devices in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed [6]. Report 4: Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report Core Viewpoints - For PX, the supply - demand is repaired to some extent in the fourth quarter but remains weak overall, with limited short - term drive and mainly low - level fluctuations. PTA also has limited short - term drive and low - level fluctuations. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and its price is under pressure. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices also face different supply - demand situations [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Upstream Prices** - On October 17, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed. The exchange rate remained basically unchanged [7]. - **PX - Related Prices and Price Differences** - CFR China PX price decreased by - 0.4%. PX spot price in RMB decreased by - 1.6%, and PX futures 2511 and 2601 also decreased [7]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Price Differences** - PTA East China spot price decreased by - 0.3%, and TA futures 2601 and 2605 decreased [7]. - PTA basis (01) and TA01 - TA05 spread changed [7]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Price Differences** - MEG East China spot price decreased by - 0.1%, and EG futures 2601 and 2605 decreased [7]. - MEG basis (01) increased by 261.3%, and MEG import profit increased by - 48.5% [7]. - **Inventory and Production** - MEG port inventory increased by 6.7%, and the arrival expectation increased by 27.5%. The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the PTA operating rate increasing by 2.3% [7].