黄金、白银基金已轮番大涨，什么时候轮到原油基金？ 近期，海外事件频扰，国际油价成焦点。与屡创新高的金银不同，油价持续阴跌，迟迟未见像样反弹， 原油相关基金因而表现平平。 Wind数据显示，2025年大宗商品基金表现分化：国投瑞银白银LOF以超130%涨幅领跑，多只黄金基金 涨逾50%，有色金属相关基金涨超15%，豆粕期货基金也收获正收益。然而，多只原油基金却亏损超 5%。 原油基金承压 过去一年，黄金、白银价格频创新高，国际油价却持续承压。 Wind数据显示，2025年布伦特原油价格主要在50美元/桶至80美元/桶区间震荡，截至1月6日，最新价格 为63.12美元/桶。 | 原油现货(英国, 布伦特Dtd) | | | W00074SPT | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 63.12 | | | +1.81 +2.95% | | | CNY | | | 1 . . + | | | 第一 | | | | | | 家 | | | | | | 总量 | 0 | 现手 | | 0 | | 结算价 | | 开盘 | | 63.12 | | 损高 | 63.12 | 慢低 | | ...

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年12月22日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 | 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明年一季度暂停增 | | --- | | 产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存去库幅度略预期，但成品油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库存增 | | 加。美国原油产量小幅减少，但仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，仍在施压乌克兰。目前泽 | | 连斯基表态，接受双边安全保障而非直接"入约"，作出了一定妥协，欧洲多国及欧盟机构领导人发表联合声明称， | | 将组建一支"多国部队"支持乌克兰。乌美双方均称新一轮和平计划磋商取得建设性进展。俄罗斯原油受制裁而得 | | 到的风险溢价继续回落，欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙继续升级，美国财政部宣布 | | 对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices are fluctuating within a range due to the uncertainty of geopolitical situations and the continuous weakness of fundamentals. The tense situation between the US and Venezuela has replaced the Russia-Ukraine conflict as the short - term price - determining factor, but the market's sensitivity to geopolitics has decreased. The interest rate cut has been priced in earlier and has limited impact on oil price drivers. The long - term trading logic of crude oil still needs to focus on the evolution of the long - term supply - demand pattern. [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Oil prices are fluctuating between geopolitical uncertainty (US - Venezuela tensions) and weak fundamentals. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut was already priced in by the market, so its current impact on prices is neutral. The market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks has decreased, and the follow - up should focus on the development of the US - Venezuela situation. [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Short - term shock and relative stability. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Unilateral**: Trade within the range, paying attention to the potential pressure around $65/barrel and the potential support around $62/barrel for Brent oil. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see. [9] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US has imposed sanctions on individuals, shipping companies, and tankers operating in Venezuela's oil sector. Russian crude oil deliveries to India and China have declined for three consecutive weeks, likely due to new US sanctions. [10] - **Negative Information**: US Gulf Coast gasoline inventories have risen for four consecutive weeks, and implied demand has declined. US crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories have changed, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) have decreased by 1800,000 barrels, a 0.4% decline. [11][12] 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - Pay attention to the development of the US - Venezuela situation, as it is currently the short - term price - determining factor, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. [13] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Analysis - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices have remained stable overall, continuing the recent shock pattern and showing a four - month consecutive decline. - **Domestic Market**: The SC2601 contract of the SC main force closed at 437.6 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.55%. The trading volume of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 9,721 lots to 84,693 lots. - **Foreign Market**: The US oil main contract fell 0.12% to $57.53/barrel, a weekly decline of 4.24%; the Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.11% to $61.21/barrel, a weekly decline of 3.98%. The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by 45,419 contracts to 1,868,023 contracts, and the net long position of managed funds decreased by 1,025 contracts to - 12,671 contracts. [16][18][21] 3.3.2 Internal - External Spread Tracking - **Spread**: As of December 12, the SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.28/barrel, the SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $3.94/barrel, the SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.97/barrel, and the Brent - WTI continuous 1 spread was $3.66/barrel. - **Arbitrage**: The theoretical price of SC M + 3 was 475.46 yuan/barrel, and the deviation from the market price increased. The theoretical on - shore profit of SC was - 29.05 yuan/barrel, and the loss narrowed compared with last week. The SC - Brent spread was weak, and the domestic crude oil was relatively weak under the background of OPEC+ production increase. [27][28] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of December 12, the Brent monthly spread (01 - 03) was $0.48/barrel, the WTI monthly spread (01 - 03) was $0.41/barrel, and the SC monthly spread (01 - 03) was - 5 yuan/barrel. [31] 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of December 12, the SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.27/barrel, and the Brent - WTI continuous 1 spread was $3.66/barrel. [43] 3.4.3 Downstream Crude Oil Valuation Tracking - The cracking spreads and refining profits in European, North American, Asia - Pacific, and Chinese markets have all shown different degrees of changes, with some declining and some showing small increases or decreases. [58][60] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - In October, global crude oil and related liquid production was 108.18 million barrels per day, a decrease of 310,000 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA has slightly increased its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. US, OPEC, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production also had corresponding changes in October and future forecasts. [93] 3.5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - Information on the seasonal trends of US refinery crude oil weekly feed and weekly operating rates, as well as China's major refinery operating rates and refining margins, is provided. [82][85] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - Seasonal trends of US commercial crude oil weekly inventories (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil weekly inventories are presented. [87] 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - Seasonal trends of US and Russian crude oil export volumes and the types of ships used for export are shown. [89][91] 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - The EIA's forecasts for global, US, and OPEC countries' crude oil production in 2025 and 2026 are presented. [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are fluctuating within a range due to the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and the continuously weak fundamentals. The Russia-Ukraine situation remains an important short - term factor affecting oil prices. Long - term concerns about supply surplus continue to suppress oil prices, and the weak global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery [1]. - Near - term oil prices are difficult to break through the trading range. It is necessary to wait for policy implementation and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading within the range. The long - term trading logic of crude oil still needs to focus on the evolution of the long - term supply - demand pattern. If the Russia - Ukraine conflict eases substantially and the US sanctions on Russia may loosen, the increase in Russian oil exports will intensify the global supply glut. If the OPEC+ capacity assessment adjustment tends to be loose, it will also increase the supply pressure. On the demand side, the weak global economic background remains unchanged, and the boosting effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on crude oil demand still needs time to be verified [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and the weak fundamentals cause oil prices to fluctuate within a range. Russia's President Putin rejected some key proposals in the US - drafted peace plan. Ukrainian negotiators will hold a new round of talks in Florida. Since the US sanctions took effect on November 21st, Russian crude oil exports have shown strong resilience, although the total export volume in November was lower than that in October. India and Turkey basically reduced their purchases of Lukoil barrels, while China continued to import in small but stable quantities [1]. - Long - term concerns about supply surplus continue to suppress oil prices. The weak global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery. Recently, Asian traders expect Saudi Aramco to lower the official selling price spread of Arab Light crude oil shipped to Asia, which further weakens the support for crude oil [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Short - term trading is expected to be stable with some fluctuations [6]. - **Base Spread, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Single - side Trading**: Trade within the range. Pay attention to the potential resistance of Brent crude at around $65 per barrel and the potential support at around $62 per barrel [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [9]. - **Options**: Stay on the sidelines [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: US President Donald Trump said that the US military will "soon" start attacking targets in Venezuela. The US Navy has deployed its largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its strike group to the Caribbean. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that the US is seeking to seize its large crude oil reserves by force [8]. - **Negative Information**: Saudi Arabia has set the selling price of Arab Light crude oil exported to Asia in January 2026 at a premium of $0.6 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average. The official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to the US in January has been set at a premium of $2.50 per barrel to the Argus Sour Crude Index. US officials and sources revealed that Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas and unveil a new governance structure for the establishment of a Gaza government and a peace committee. Russian President Putin said that Russia's energy cooperation with India is not affected [8]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Negotiations**: Continue to monitor whether the Russia - Ukraine peace talks can achieve substantial progress. If the two sides reach a substantial consensus on ceasefire and lifting sanctions on Russia, the market's expectation of the return of Russian oil supply will increase, which may intensify the pressure of crude oil supply surplus. If the negotiations encounter obstacles, the geopolitical risk premium may rise in the short term [10]. - **Middle East Situation**: US officials and sources revealed that Trump plans to announce the second phase of the Gaza peace process before Christmas [10]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices have generally remained stable, continuing the recent trading - range pattern and showing a downward trend for the fourth consecutive month [13]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Disk Analysis**: Last week, the closing price of the SC main contract SC2601 was 457.1 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 0.75% [15]. - **Fund and Position Analysis**: The open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 74,972 lots, an increase of 2,242 lots from the previous week [16]. - **Foreign Market**: - **Disk Analysis**: The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.79% to close at $60.14 per barrel, a weekly increase of 2.72%. The main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.01% to close at $63.9 per barrel, a weekly increase of 2.44% [18]. - **Fund and Position Analysis**: The trading volume of the main contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures was 243,200 lots, with an open interest of 616,400 lots, a daily decrease of 64,000 lots. The trading volume of the main contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures was 227,000 lots, with an open interest of 307,000 lots, a daily decrease of 190,000 lots [19]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Spread Tracking**: - **Price Spread**: As of December 5th, the price spread of SC - Brent continuous contract 1 was $0.88 per barrel, the price spread of SC - WTI continuous contract 1 was $4.52 per barrel, the price spread of SC - Dubai continuous contract 1 was $0.50 per barrel, and the price spread of Brent - WTI continuous contract 1 was $3.64 per barrel [24]. - **Arbitrage**: - **Valuation**: As of December 5th, the theoretical price of SC M + 3 was 491.88 yuan per barrel, with a deviation of - 6.87% from the market price, and the deviation narrowed compared with last week [25]. - **Profit**: The estimated theoretical on - shore profit of SC was - 37.38 yuan per barrel, and the loss narrowed compared with last week [25]. - **Price Spread**: The market price spread of SC M + 3 - Brent M + 2 was $1.45 per barrel, and the theoretical price spread was $6.18 per barrel. From the perspective of domestic and foreign price spreads, the SC - Brent price spread was weak, and the domestic crude oil market was relatively weak under the background of OPEC+ production increase [25]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Calendar Spread Tracking - As of December 5th, the Brent calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.61 per barrel, the previous value was 1.23; the WTI calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.52 per barrel, the previous value was 0.46; the SC calendar spread (01 - 03) was 1.3 yuan per barrel, the previous value was - 5.6 yuan per barrel [28]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Price Spread Tracking - As of December 5th, the SC - Brent price spread of continuous contract 1 was $0.88 per barrel, the previous value was $0.58 per barrel; the Brent - WTI price spread of continuous contract 1 was $3.64 per barrel, the previous value was $4.65 per barrel [40]. 3.4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of December 5th, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market weakened across the board this week. In the North American and Asia - Pacific regions, the cracking performance showed that diesel was stronger than gasoline. The crack spreads in the Chinese market strengthened, and the refinery profits were differentiated. The east - west crack spreads weakened [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - side Tracking - In October, the global crude oil and related liquids production was 10,818 barrels per day, a decrease of 31 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the global crude oil and related liquids production will reach 10,597 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 280 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 10,737 barrels per day, an increase of 141 barrels per day compared with 2025 [85]. - In October, the US crude oil production was 1379 barrels per day, an increase of 1 barrel per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the US crude oil production will reach 1359 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 36 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 1358 barrels per day, a decrease of 1 barrel per day compared with 2025 [85]. - In October, the crude oil production of OPEC countries was 2871 barrels per day, a decrease of 43.5 barrels per day compared with September; the crude oil production of Non - OPEC DoC countries was 1432 barrels per day, a decrease of 23 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA continued to slightly raise its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. It is expected that the crude oil production of OPEC countries will reach 2784 barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 75 barrels per day compared with 2024; and in 2026, it will reach 2790 barrels per day, an increase of 7 barrels per day compared with 2025 [85]. 3.5.2 Demand - side Tracking - No specific quantitative analysis is provided in the text, but it is mentioned that global economic factors and US tariff disturbances have led to a sluggish demand recovery [1]. 3.5.3 Inventory - side Tracking - No specific inventory data for this period is mentioned in the text, but some inventory seasonal charts are provided, such as the US commercial crude oil weekly inventory (excluding strategic reserves) seasonal chart and the US Cushing crude oil weekly inventory seasonal chart [81]. 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - Some export - related charts are provided, such as the US crude oil weekly export volume seasonal chart, the US crude oil export vessel chart, the Russian crude oil export volume/weekly frequency chart, and the Russian crude oil export volume to South Korea/weekly frequency chart. However, no specific quantitative analysis of import - export data for this period is given [83]. 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - No specific balance sheet data analysis is provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to be loose with new capacity and restarted plants, and the demand support is limited due to some downstream loss - making products cutting production. The cost - end support is weak, and the rebound space is restricted, with a possible short - term adjustment under the drag of oil prices [5][8]. - For styrene, the supply is limited with some plants increasing load and some under maintenance. The demand support is limited due to high inventory and profit pressure of some downstream products. Although the short - term supply - demand expectation improves, the rebound space is restricted due to profit repair, weakening demand expectation, and weak cost - end support [9][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Cost - Under the pressure of OPEC+ continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. With more negative factors in the crude oil market recently, such as the US promoting the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement negotiation and the increasing uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation next month, oil prices are under pressure. Short - term Brent crude oil is concerned about the $60/barrel support, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical dynamics [4]. Supply and Demand - Supply: There are plant restarts and new capacity included recently. Although some plants reduced their loads, the supply remains loose. The output of petroleum benzene this cycle is 44.67 tons (- 0.76 tons), and the capacity utilization rate is 76.67% (- 1.31%). The benzene hydrogenation plant operating rate is 57.75% (+ 3.2%), with an output of 7.58 tons (+ 0.42 tons) [5]. - Demand: The downstream operating rates show mixed trends. The styrene operating rate is 68.95% (- 0.3%), the phenol operating rate is 79% (+ 11.4%), the caprolactam operating rate is 88.24% (+ 2.2%), and the aniline operating rate is 75.68% (- 4.5%) [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, treat BZ2603 as short - biased on rallies. - Arbitrage: The EB03 - BZ03 spread is around 1122 (+ 28), and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. Valuation - Neutral to low. Due to the repeated speculation of gasoline - blending demand, the pure benzene price rebounded slightly, but the weak fundamental expectation and weak oil - price expectation limited the increase. The BZN has been repaired to some extent, expanding from 100 yuan/ton last week to around 112 yuan/ton [8]. 2025 Production Plan - Multiple enterprises in different provinces have pure benzene and its downstream production plans in 2025, including enterprises like Yulong Petrochemical, ExxonMobil, etc. The planned new capacity of pure benzene is 128 tons/year, and the new capacity of downstream products is about 238 tons/year [13][14]. October - December 2025 Device Dynamics - Many plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance from October to December 2025, with a total planned shutdown capacity of 212 tons. The net supply of domestic pure benzene产业链 devices decreases by about 11.4 tons, and the net demand decreases by about 17.2 tons, showing inventory accumulation [16][17]. Styrene Supply - With the repair of industry profits, some plants increased their loads. Last week, the overall styrene output was 34.29 tons (- 0.15 tons), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.95% (- 0.3%). This week, one plant in East China restarted, and one plant each in Northeast, East, and South China adjusted their loads, resulting in a slight output decrease [9]. Demand - The consumption of styrene by the three major downstream products is 26.69 tons (+ 0.9 tons). The capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS all increased. As of November 20, the EPS capacity utilization rate is 56.27% (month - on - month + 4.64%), the PS capacity utilization rate is 55.9% (month - on - month + 0.5%), and the ABS capacity utilization rate is 72.4% (month - on - month + 0.6%) [9][77]. Strategy - Unilateral: Treat EB01 as range - bound. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines for now [10]. Valuation - Neutral to low. The supply - demand situation of styrene has improved. Driven by overseas gasoline - blending speculation and exports, styrene first rose and then fell, and the industry cash flow has been slightly repaired. The non - integrated cash flow has rebounded from around - 106 yuan/ton last week to around 9 yuan/ton [11]. Import and Export - Under the expectation of overseas plant maintenance, styrene exports are expected to increase in November. China is gradually changing from a net importer of styrene in the past five years to a net exporter [63][67]. Inventory - The port inventory of styrene has decreased. The downstream 3S high inventory reflects the large demand resistance in further transmission to the terminal and also restricts the increase of loads [68][86]. Downstream - The weekly operating rate of downstream products has generally increased slightly, but the downstream profits have been compressed, and the downstream inventory is at a relatively high level on a month - on - month basis [73][78][83]. Terminal - Domestic demand support is limited, as shown by the data of domestic and export sales of home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [88].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for the oil supply and demand structure remains optimistic despite geopolitical uncertainties, with a continued positive stance on "three major oil companies" and the oil service sector from a long-term perspective [1] Group 1: Oil and Gas Sector - The macroeconomic recovery is expected to boost chemical demand, benefiting leading enterprises in the long run due to capacity elimination in chemical products [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas exploration, development, production, and services to reflect the overall performance of the oil and gas industry [1] Group 2: Chemical Industry - The long-term profitability outlook for large refining, coal chemical, and ethylene sectors is positive due to the recovery in macroeconomic conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to factors such as uncertain Sino - US trade tariffs, a loose supply - demand situation in the crude oil market, and reduced geopolitical risks. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach for crude oil [3]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure from lukewarm demand and sufficient supply. With international oil prices likely to stay weak, fuel oil lacks strong upward drivers. A short - term wait - and - see strategy is also advised for fuel oil [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Supply - demand situation**: OPEC+ continues its production - increasing policy and reached a principle agreement to slightly increase production in November. From September, crude oil consumption gradually declines, with the global off - peak consumption being 1 - 3 million barrels per day lower than the peak. Geopolitical risks have decreased, which may lead to more crude oil flowing into the market [3]. - **Operation strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see [3]. - **Futures盘面**: SC crude oil closed at 443.7 yuan/barrel, down 4.9 yuan or 1.09%; WTI crude oil was at 58.59 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil was at 62.28 dollars/barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Spread data**: SC - WTI spread decreased by 0.67 yuan/barrel to 3.91 yuan/barrel, a decline of 14.58%; SC - Brent spread decreased by 0.67 yuan/barrel to 0.22 yuan/barrel, a decline of 75.42% [3]. - **Spot price**: Oman crude oil was at 64.25 dollars/barrel, down 1.35 dollars or 2.06%; Russian ESPO was at 59.22 dollars/barrel, down 1.21 dollars or 2.00%; Brent Dtd was at 64.35 dollars/barrel, down 0.7 dollars or 1.08% [4]. - **Fundamental data**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.89% to 420,261 thousand barrels; US gasoline inventory decreased by 0.73% to 219,093 thousand barrels; US distillate inventory decreased by 1.63% to 121,559 thousand barrels; US production increased by 0.92% to 13,629 thousand barrels per day [4]. Fuel Oil - **Inventory situation**: As of the week of October 8, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventory decreased by 892,000 barrels to 23.669 million barrels. However, the market is still under pressure from demand and supply, and it is expected that the inventory in October will increase due to large supplies received in September [3]. - **Operation strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see [3]. - **Futures盘面**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,683 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 0.63%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,155 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan or 1.50% [3]. - **Spread data**: FU - SC spread decreased by 31 yuan/ton to 2 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.88%; LU - SC spread increased by 44 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.63%; LU - FU spread decreased by 31 yuan/ton to 472 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.16% [4]. - **Spot price**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at 365 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars or 3.18%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at 435.5 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars or 1.58% [4]. - **Fundamental data**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% to 23,699 thousand barrels [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly eased following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is expected to reduce the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices [1][10] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, although the actual increase may fall short of this target due to limited spare capacity among member countries [2][14] - The reintroduction of tariffs by the U.S. on imports from China may negatively impact global oil demand, leading to a supply surplus and potential downward pressure on oil prices in the fourth quarter [3][19] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production and Geopolitical Risks - The ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Hamas conflict is expected to alleviate geopolitical tensions, potentially lowering oil prices [1][10] - OPEC+ has announced a cautious increase in production, with a total increase of 1.75 million barrels per day recorded so far in 2025 [2][14] - The production capacity of major OPEC+ members varies, with Saudi Arabia having significant spare capacity while Russia's production is constrained [2][14] Tariff Risks and Demand Outlook - The U.S. will impose a 100% tariff on imports from China starting November 1, which could disrupt global oil demand [3][19] - The IEA projects a global oil demand increase of 740,000 barrels per day in 2025, while supply is expected to grow by 2.7 million barrels per day, leading to a potential oversupply situation [3][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for major oil companies and oil service sectors, emphasizing the potential for recovery in chemical demand due to macroeconomic improvements [4] - Specific companies to watch include China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC, along with their respective oil service subsidiaries [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged, and the market is focused on the cease - fire negotiations in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US tariff measures on India. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of sanctions policies has decreased. [7] - In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile. The supply of Russian crude oil should be monitored. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under the pattern of supply - demand surplus. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Oil Price Data - From August 11 - 15, 2025, WTI decreased by $1.16, BRENT by $0.99, and DUBAI by $0.47. SC increased by 4.40, and OMAN decreased by $0.83. [3] - The prices of other products such as domestic gasoline, Japanese naphtha, and Singapore fuel oil also had corresponding changes during this period. [3] b. Daily News - Trump said that the US had made significant progress with Russia and would hold a meeting with Zelensky next Monday. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", Trump temporarily did not consider imposing tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil. [6][7] - The Russian side said that the talks between Putin and Trump were very positive. If Putin opposes a cease - fire, the US may impose sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. [6] c. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 25.9 barrels per day to 357.7 barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 4.3 barrels to 1332.7 barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 303.6 barrels to 4.27 billion barrels, an increase of 0.72%. [7] - From August 8 - 14, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries increased, while the inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries increased month - on - month. [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The performance of major international oil companies declined in H1 2025 due to falling oil prices and low refining margins, with net profits for ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, Total, and BP showing year-on-year decreases of -15.3%, -39.7%, -22.9%, -31.2%, and -31.8% respectively [1][9][10] - The IEA has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, primarily due to weaker-than-expected demand from emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil [3][24] - Despite the oversupply pressure on oil prices, geopolitical risks from sanctions on Russia and Iran add uncertainty to the market [3][24] Summary by Sections Section 1: Performance of Major Oil Companies - In H1 2025, the average Brent crude oil price was $70.81 per barrel, a decrease of 15.1% year-on-year, with Q2 averaging $66.71 per barrel, down 21.5% [1][10] - Refining margins for Shell, Total, and BP fell by 24.4%, 44.4%, and 26.2% respectively, indicating a challenging refining market [1][10] - Natural gas prices increased, with Henry Hub and TTF averages rising by 66.8% and 38.9% year-on-year, but major companies like Shell and BP did not achieve year-on-year growth in their gas business due to lagging contract prices and production declines [1][10] Section 2: Oil and Gas Production Growth - The total oil and gas equivalent production of the five major international oil companies grew by 2.96% year-on-year in H1 2025, with ExxonMobil achieving a 15.5% increase in crude oil production due to rapid output from the Guyana block [2][18] - Cost control measures helped mitigate some performance volatility, with ExxonMobil's upstream profit only declining by 4.5% due to effective cost management [2][21] Section 3: IEA Oil Demand Forecast - The IEA has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, now expecting an increase of 680,000 barrels per day [3][24] - The IEA anticipates that OPEC+ will increase production by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025, contributing to a total supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day [3][24] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for major Chinese oil companies and oil service sectors, as well as for chemical products in the long term [4] - Specific companies to watch include China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, CNOOC, and various oil service engineering firms [4]