今日盘间，周期板块延续强势，基本金属、化工原料等行业涨势不俗，助推相关ETF走高。截至发 稿，富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）涨超7.4%，石油ETF富国（159148）、有色ETF富国 （159168）、化工50ETF（516120）分别上涨5.70%、3.08%、2.54%。 消息面上，A股春节休市期间，美伊紧张局势加剧，市场对原油供应中断的担忧升温，同时地缘风 险也推高了有色及化工品的价格。 研究机构表示，在地缘冲突仍存在不确定性的前提下，中长期原油供需格局仍具备景气基础，在长 期主义视角下，持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块。此外，宏观经济修复提振化工需求，长期来看化工品产 能出清利好龙头企业。 对相关板块感兴趣的投资者，可以关注富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）、石油ETF富国 （159148）、有色ETF富国（159168）、化工50ETF（516120）等产品。 石油ETF富国（159148）跟踪国证石油天然气指数，聚焦于A股市场中与石油、天然气全产业链相 关的上市公司，覆盖勘探开发、设备服务、燃气输配及综合性能源运营等核心环节；标普油气ETF （513350）则聚焦美股油气勘探 ...

石油ETF富国（159148）跟踪国证石油天然气指数，聚焦于A股市场中与石油、天然气全产业链相关的 上市公司，覆盖勘探开发、设备服务、燃气输配及综合性能源运营等核心环节；标普油气ETF （513350）则聚焦美股油气勘探和生产领域的个股。 今日盘间，周期板块延续强势，基本金属、化工原料等行业涨势不俗，助推相关ETF走高。截至发稿， 富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）涨超7.4%，石油ETF富国（159148）、有色ETF富国 （159168）、化工50ETF（516120）分别上涨5.70%、3.08%、2.54%。 消息面上，A股春节休市期间，美伊紧张局势加剧，市场对原油供应中断的担忧升温，同时地缘风险也 推高了有色及化工品的价格。 研究机构表示，在地缘冲突仍存在不确定性的前提下，中长期原油供需格局仍具备景气基础，在长期主 义视角下，持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块。此外，宏观经济修复提振化工需求，长期来看化工品产能出 清利好龙头企业。 对相关板块感兴趣的投资者，可以关注富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350）、石油ETF富国 （159148）、有色ETF富国（159168）、化工50ETF（51 ...

Group 1 - Oil stocks generally rose, with CNOOC (00883) up 4.29% at HKD 25.28, CNOOC Services (02883) up 3.08% at HKD 9.72, and PetroChina (00857) up 1.66% at HKD 9.20 [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties remain, with reports indicating that U.S. President Trump has expressed support for Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile facilities if a deal with Iran is not reached [1] - Everbright Securities maintains a positive outlook on the "Big Three" oil companies and the oil service sector, citing a favorable long-term supply-demand landscape for crude oil [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 11, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Carbonate lithium led the gains, while container shipping European routes led the losses. The capital flow varied among different contracts [5][6]. - Different futures products are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and geopolitical situations, and their prices are expected to move within a certain range in the short term [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on February 11, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Carbonate lithium rose over 9%, and沪镍 rose over 4%. Container shipping European routes fell over 1%, and coke, glass, and palm oil fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.13%, IH rose 0.08%, IC rose 0.43%, and IM rose 0.01%. Among bond futures, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.05%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.05%. In terms of capital flow, IM 2603,沪金 2604, and carbonate lithium 2605 had capital inflows, while ten - year bond 2603, 30 - year bond 2603, and CSI 300 2603 had capital outflows [5][6]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Futures - **沪铜**: It opened low and closed high, with strong intraday fluctuations. In January, production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and in February, it is expected to return to normal. The expected production in February decreased by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a 3.04% decline, but increased by 8.06% year - on - year. The demand decreased marginally during the holiday. The copper price is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the spot trading was light before the holiday [8]. - **Carbonate lithium**: It opened high and closed high, rising over 9%. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased. The supply in February will decrease. The export of Chilean carbonate lithium in January increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory is moving downstream. The retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10]. - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The demand is in the off - season, but the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The global crude oil floating storage is high, and the supply is in surplus. The price of Arabian light crude oil to Asia was lowered. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The geopolitical situation in Iran is uncertain, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased slightly week - on - week, and the expected production in February decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate mostly declined, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil is restricted, and the production and cost of domestic asphalt are affected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [13][15]. - **PP**: The downstream production rate of PP decreased week - on - week, and the enterprise production rate increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **Plastic**: The plastic production rate increased, and the downstream production rate decreased. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC production rate increased slightly, and the downstream production rate decreased. The export order decreased after the price increase, and the social inventory increased. The real estate market is still in adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Coking coal**: It opened low and closed high, with a late - session decline. The supply of coking coal shrank significantly before the Spring Festival, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal will be restricted during the holiday. The downstream inventory is still increasing, but the replenishment is approaching the end. It is expected to be weak and fluctuate before the holiday [21]. - **Urea**: It opened low and closed high, rising in a volatile manner. Most factories have completed order collection, and the spot price will be stable during the holiday. The daily production has reached 215,000 tons. The futures market sentiment is strong, and the inventory decreased significantly this week but is expected to increase slightly next week. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range before the holiday [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating due to the current geopolitical risks and potential for price recovery in the medium to long term [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent surge in oil prices reflects geopolitical risk premiums, particularly due to ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which significantly impact global oil supply security [4][7]. - It is anticipated that oil prices will exhibit characteristics of being "geopolitically driven with fundamental support" around the Chinese New Year, with potential further increases if conflict expectations materialize [7]. - The medium to long-term outlook suggests a return to fundamental pricing logic as the oil supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, limiting upward price movement without sustained geopolitical conflict [7]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of January 30, Brent crude oil futures closed at $70.69 per barrel, a 7.30% increase from the previous week, while WTI futures rose by 6.78% to $65.21 per barrel [15]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 424 million barrels, down 2.296 million barrels week-on-week, which is 3% lower than the five-year average [17]. - The report notes a trend of increasing oil service activity, with drilling day rates remaining stable despite low levels, indicating potential for future increases as global capital expenditures rise [15][35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products fell to $9.40 per barrel, a decrease of $2.69 from the previous week [54]. - The report indicates that while refining profitability has improved, the current product price differentials remain low, with expectations for gradual improvement as economic recovery progresses [51]. Polyester Sector - The report observes an increase in PTA profitability, with prices rising to 5,271.4 CNY per ton, a 4.66% increase week-on-week [1]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is deemed average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures and competitive advantages [1][10]. - It also suggests maintaining a neutral outlook on oil companies, with a focus on those offering high dividend yields, such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the situation in Iran, are driving significant fluctuations in oil prices, providing a favorable outlook for oil market conditions in the long term [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand to increase by 860,000 barrels per day by 2026, with chemical feedstock demand expected to dominate this growth, rising from 40% of the incremental demand in 2025 to 60% [1] - On the supply side, the IEA anticipates a growth of 2.4 million barrels per day in global oil supply by 2026, with OPEC+ significantly expanding production in 2025 being a major factor for market volatility, although they have decided to pause production increases in Q1 2026, which may alleviate supply concerns [1] Group 2 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), focusing on exploration, extraction, production, and sales within the oil and gas sector, reflecting the overall performance of publicly listed companies in this industry [1] - The index is characterized by strong cyclicality and significant sensitivity to fluctuations in international oil prices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, have driven significant fluctuations in oil prices, providing a favorable backdrop for oil price recovery [1] - OPEC+ is expected to cautiously increase production in 2026, which may help alleviate the oversupply situation in the oil market [2] - Global oil demand is projected to improve, with the chemical raw material demand expected to dominate the growth in 2026 [3] - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for major Chinese oil companies and the oil service sector, emphasizing their resilience during price fluctuations [4] Summary by Sections Oil Supply and Demand - OPEC forecasts a demand increase of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, with a cautious production increase expected to improve the supply-demand balance [2] - The IEA has raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 860,000 barrels per day, attributing this to improved macroeconomic conditions [3] Price Trends - As of January 16, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed at $64.20 and $59.22 per barrel, reflecting increases of 1.9% and 0.7% respectively from the previous week [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major Chinese oil companies, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as their associated oil service engineering firms [4]

Group 1 - The oil ETF (561360) has seen a net inflow of over 200 million yuan for five consecutive days, indicating a favorable supply-demand balance in the oil market [1] - As of January 11, 2026, the weekly spot price of Brent crude oil is $66.01 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.67% [1] - The operating rate of China's asphalt production facilities is reported at 25.4%, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.0 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Global oil demand for the 12th quarter is 106.6 million barrels per day, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.04% [1] - The number of active drilling rigs globally in December is 1,783, representing a month-on-month decrease of 1.65% [1] - The wholesale price of gasoline in China is 7,367 yuan per ton, which is a week-on-week decrease of 0.97% [1] Group 3 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which focuses on listed companies across the entire oil and gas industry chain, including exploration, extraction, refining, and sales [1] - The index exhibits high cyclical characteristics and is significantly influenced by fluctuations in international oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of oil funds has been lackluster compared to the significant gains seen in gold and silver funds, raising questions about when oil funds will rebound [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance - In 2025, commodity fund performance has shown divergence, with the Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF leading with over 130% gains, while multiple gold funds have increased by over 50% [1][6]. - Conversely, several oil funds have reported losses exceeding 5%, with three oil funds experiencing losses over 10%, the largest being E Fund Oil with a loss of over 13% [5][6]. Group 2: Oil Price Trends - Over the past year, gold and silver prices have reached new highs, while international oil prices have remained under pressure, fluctuating between $50 and $80 per barrel, with the latest price at $63.12 per barrel [3][4]. - The oil market is currently characterized by a weak state, primarily influenced by expectations of oversupply, as OPEC and emerging oil-producing countries have increased production, coupled with high U.S. shale oil output [9][10]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the current oil market is in a bottoming phase, with the potential for a rebound if U.S. demand and economic growth accelerate alongside global industrial recovery [9][10]. - Long-term investment in oil funds may yield substantial returns if viewed through a 10 to 20-year horizon, although uncertainties regarding future demand due to energy revolutions exist [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market remains in a state of oversupply, but the recent escalation of the geopolitical situation in Venezuela and the continued delay of the restart of the Caspian Alliance Pipeline No. 3 SPM suggest a temporary wait - and - see approach [4] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increase in Q1 next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the drawdown of US crude oil inventories was slightly better than expected, but the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories increased. US crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and there are positive progress in the peace talks. The risk premium of Russian crude oil due to sanctions continues to decline, and the crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the US continue to fall. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and the US has imposed new sanctions on Venezuela, which may lead to concerns about export disruptions [4] - After Zelensky's compromise on the "joining the treaty" issue, crude oil prices hit a new low in the second half of the year. However, the US blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and the expected full - storage of Venezuelan oil facilities led to a slight rebound in crude oil prices [9] Crude Oil Supply - OPEC's October crude oil production was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.480 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of December 12 decreased by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.843 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 2.49 million barrels month - on - month to 412.1 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, with 21 consecutive weeks of increase [14] Central Bank Interest Rate Cut - The US November core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to data collection interference. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for cuts, some believing it's a technical factor, and some worried about inflation and preferring to keep rates stable until next spring [18] Performance of Refined Oil in Europe and the US - The crack spreads of gasoline in the US and Europe decreased by $1.0 per barrel and $1.5 per barrel respectively; the crack spreads of diesel in the US and Europe decreased by $0.5 per barrel and $1.0 per barrel respectively [23] US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.521 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 7.36% week - on - week to 9.078 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.647 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13%. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 8.95% week - on - week to 3.786 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.684 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 2.18%. The significant decline in diesel demand led to a 2.41% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [27] US Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of December 17, EIA data showed that as of the week of December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels, slightly better than the expected decrease of 1.066 million barrels, and 4.47% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 4.808 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.062 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 1.712 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.178 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 742,000 barrels [34] Geopolitical Risks - The Ukrainian National Security Service attacked a Russian oil - transporting tanker in the Mediterranean. The Russian army advanced in various directions. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks made constructive progress. Israeli officials plan to report a possible new strike on Iran to Trump. The US intercepted a tanker near Venezuela [39]